Public Opinion Ratings

Crucial House Races On Way To House Of Representatives Democratic Majority In 116th Congress

It should be easy to gain the minimum 23 seats to put Democrats in charge of the House of Representatives in the upcoming 116th Congress.

The key reality is that there are New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, Illinois, and California seats that seem likely to be switched.

There are suburban districts that traditionally vote Republican, but now are expected to vote Democratic, due to the outrage of women, and the fear that we will have a massive rise in prices due to the crazy tariffs Donald Trump has put upon products from China, as well as the European Union.

in the first midterm after a new President has been inaugurated, invariably the party in control of the White House loses a large number of seats, and often control of Congress.

This was true in 2010, 1946, 1994, 1974, and 1966, years when the party in power lost 63, 55, 54, 48, and 48 seats respectively, as well as losing 6, 12, 8, 4, and 4 seats in the US Senate.

Best bet is that the Democrats will gain 35-40 seats in the House, and have a shot at winning two seats from Republicans, and keeping all of their endangered Senators, particularly now with the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court controversy.

With the low public opinion ratings of Donald Trump, history tells us that the average in the first midterm of a new President sees 44 House seats and 5 Senate races lost.

Also, first term midterms, not considering public opinion ratings of the new President, see an average of 29 House and 3 Senate seats lost.

So considering all these factors, it seems that Democratic control of both houses of Congress seems likely in the 116th Congress.

Donald Trump Has Lowest Popularity Rating Of One Year President Since Polling Began

With one year in office, Donald Trump ranks as the lowest popularity rating of all Presidents since public opinion polling began as a full time effort in the Presidency of Harry Truman after 1945.

The FiveThirtyEight blog shows that Trump’s overall average in January is 40 percent in favor and 55 percent opposed.

Every other President after a year in office ranks as more popular than not popular.

The least popular after Trump is Gerald Ford, with 44 percent in favor after one year and 39 opposed, and a lot of this result was due to Ford’s pardoning of Richard Nixon one month into his term.

Following up the list, we have Barack Obama 50-43; Ronald Reagan 49-40; Harry Truman 50-35; Bill Clinton 57-34; Jimmy Carter 55-27; Richard Nixon 60-23; Dwight D. Eisenhower 71-18; Lyndon B. Johnson 74-15; George H. W. Bush 78-11; George W. Bush 81-13; and at the top of the list John F. Kennedy 79-10.

So from Ford to JFK, the net approval is from plus 5 points to plus 69 points.

Of course, many of these great public opinion ratings deteriorated over time, particularly with Truman, Carter, Nixon, Johnson, and the Bushes, but they, along with all other Presidents, ranked more popular than not popular at this early stage of their White House tenure.

Those supportive of Trump love to point out that he has risen slightly from the low to mid 30s, but with the constant tumult and chaos in the White House, and his horrible, thoughtless, and cruel policies on so many issues, it is assured that Trump will never rise to a more positive than negative view of him and his Presidency.