Jay Inslee

Joe Biden Survives Onslaught In Second Night Of Second Debate, But Kamala Harris Remains Major Competitor, And Cory Booker Impresses

The second night of the second Democratic Presidential debate in Detroit, Michigan, saw former Vice President Joe Biden survive an onslaught from Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Bill de Blasio.

At the same time, Harris remained a major competitor, although attacked by Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard on her handling of criminal justice as California Attorney General.

Cory Booker gained a great deal from this debate as well, and Julian Castro and Jay Inslee both improved their status.

Overall, this debate was far better than Tuesday night’s debate, and it is certain that the 20 debaters will decline by up to half the total for the Houston debate on ABC on September 12 and 13.

Some of these 20 contenders, even if they did well, will be unable to gain 130,000 unique contributors and 2 percent in at least 4 polls, the requirements for the third set of debates.

Right now, the following are definite:

Joe Biden

Kamala Harris

Bernie Sanders

Elizabeth Warren

Pete Buttigieg

The following have a good opportunity to move forward as well:

Cory Booker

Julian Castro

Amy Klobuchar

Jay Inslee

Beto O’Rourke

Steve Bullock

So a total of 11 candidates are likely in September in Houston, and since there will likely be only 11, they may all be on one evening.

Can Joe Biden Recover From Poor First Debate Performance This Week In Detroit CNN Debate?

Former Vice President Joe Biden will come under the microscope this Wednesday in Detroit, as he needs to revive his fortunes after being upended by Senator Kamala Harris in the first debate.

While he seems to have kept his lead in public opinion polls, and particularly in the state of South Carolina, with a very large African American population, Biden knows he will be attacked by Harris again, along with Cory Booker, Julian Castro, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Jay Inslee among others, also including Tulsi Gabbard and Bill de Blasio.

Biden needs to prove he can react well to attacks, as if he does not, then despite the polls at this point, his candidacy could be in rapid decline.

Is The Road To Success For Democrats An Old White Man, Or Instead A Woman, A Minority, Or A Gay Candidate?

The Democratic Party is in a major quandary for 2020.

Is the road to success to nominate an old white man, such as Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Jay Inslee, or John Hickenlooper, all of whom will be in the high 70s or 80s if in office for two terms?

Or should they nominate an older white woman (Elizabeth Warren) or a younger white woman (Amy Klobuchar, Kirsten Gillibrand, Tulsi Gabbard), or a multi racial woman (Kamala Harris), or an African American male (Cory Booker), or a Latino male (Julian Castro), or a gay male (Pete Buttigieg)?

The question is what is the right formula to defeat Donald Trump in a nation where working class white men are terrified of anything other than a white man in the Oval Office!

The Worrisome Issue Of Age In The Presidential Campaign Of 2020

The issue of age will rear its head in the 2020 Presidential campaign, whether one likes it or not.

We have five Presidential contenders who will be in their 70s or reach that decade while in office, and two who will reach their 80s early in the term.

The ages of these five contenders at the time of inauguration are as follows:

Bernie Sanders, 79 and four months; Joe Biden, 78 and two months; Elizabeth Warren, 71 years and seven months; Jay Inslee, 69 years and eleven months; John Hickenlooper, 68 years and eleven months.

Either Sanders or Biden would be older than Ronald Reagan was when he left office, and Sanders would be older than Donald Trump if Trump finished a second term, with Biden only three months younger than Trump would be at the end of a second term.

Warren, along with Sanders and Biden, would be the oldest first term inaugurated President, nearly a year older than Trump when he took the oath in 2017.

Inslee would be with just a few days younger than Ronald Reagan when he took the oath in 1981, with Hickenlooper just a year younger than Reagan was, so either still would be the third oldest President on Inauguration Day.

When one considers how Reagan seemed to be declining mentally in his second term, and that Trump seems to many to have mental issues with his behavior and actions, one has to wonder whether Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden reaching their 80s early in the term is not a danger in theory. Also, since Warren would be in her mid 70s at the end of the term, and Inslee the same age as Reagan when he ran in 1984, and Hickenlooper only one year younger than Reagan or Inslee, one has to be concerned about the potential for mental deterioration, let alone the danger of physical health crises.

Few world leaders historically have served into their late 70s or early 80s in a high stress position, as a chief executive. Two exceptions are Winston Churchill of Great Britain, who left power past age 81, and West German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer, who was well past 87 when he left office. Only Adenauer would be older than Sanders or Biden at the end of a second term in the Oval Office.

Of course, there have been Kings and Emperors who were in office beyond the age of 80, as with Queen Elizabeth II of Great Britain, and recently retired Japanese Emperor Akihito, but neither has had real constitutional authority over government policies.

So the issue of age cannot be ignored as a worrisome issue, sorry to say!

The Second Night’s Democratic Debate: Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg The Stars, But Eric Swalwell And Marianne Williamson Gained Notice

The second night’s Democratic Party debate has two clear winners—Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg.

But Eric Swalwell and author Marianne Williamson also impressed this author and blogger, although no one in reality would think that Williamson would have any chance to win the nomination.

Joe Biden’s dominance is no longer such, and it could be a sign of troubles ahead, as his performance was lackluster, while not eliminating him, but a lot of homework is ahead if he is to keep his lead in the polls.

Bernie Sanders came across as strong in his views, but one still has to wonder how his ideas can be seen as pragmatic and possible, were he to be elected, which seems doubtful.

The remainder of the list—John Hickenlooper, Michael Bennet, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Andrew Yang—did not come across well to this observer.

So at this point, while nothing is final, one would think the true competitors are, besides Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, the following in no special order:

Elizabeth Warren

Kamala Harris

Pete Buttigieg

Julian Castro

Amy Klobuchar

Jay Inslee

Cory Booker

Eric Swalwell

We are far from knowing who will be the nominees of the Democratic Party, however, and the people will decide in the caucuses and primaries beginning about seven months from now.

The Best Performances In The First Debate: Julian Castro, Elizabeth Warren, Jay Inslee

Last night’s first Democratic debate saw some definite winners:

Julian Castro

Elizabeth Warren

Jay Inslee

The biggest winner was former HUD Secretary and San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, who came across very strongly in competition with fellow Texas and former Congressman Beto O’Rourke on immigration and in his overall performance. He is someone that this author and blogger has been impressed with for a long time, and realize he was on the short list for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and might have made the difference in bringing out more Latino votes, had he been on the ticket. I think he can be considered now a major player, number 6 on the list, with the likelihood that funding and poll numbers will increase dramatically.

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, the only major player in this first debate, also came across strongly, and very principled, but might have hurt herself by her moving closer to Bernie Sanders in competition for the far Left of the Democratic Party.

Washington State Governor Jay Inslee also impressed, with his strong stand on climate change, and his overall background record as an outstanding Governor, and his funding and poll numbers may also increase dramatically. And the Pacific Northwest deserves attention for the national ticket.

New Jersey Senator Cory Booker and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar also improved their image, but not to the extent of Castro and Inslee.

Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan, much more moderate, also deserves some more respect and attention, but it will not be easy for him to gain traction as much as the five mentioned above.

The remaining four–Beto O’Rourke, Tulsi Gabbard, Bill de Blasio, John Delaney—seem to be left behind as this author and blogger sees it.

Clearly, there are many different ways to look at any debate, and there will be plenty of analysis and evaluation in many different directions.

But at this point, I would say Julian Castro will soon join Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg as the top six of all.

We shall see soon whether any of the other six debating tonight join that group as a serious contender.

The First Debate Mix: What To Expect

The first debate among Democratic Presidential candidates takes place on Wednesday June 26 at 9-11 pm on NBC and MSNBC.

It includes the following ten candidates:

Elizabeth Warren

Beto O’Rourke

Coey Booker

Julian Castro

Tulsi Gabbard

Jay Inslee

Amy Klobuchar

Bill de Blasio

John Delaney

Tim Ryan

This is a mix of three US Senators; four former or sitting US House members; a former Mayor and Cabinet Officer; a Mayor; and a Governor.

The one who needs to shine, based on her high poll ratings, and therefore expectations being high, is Elizabeth Warren. This author and blogger would imagine she will do very well in this debate.

Beto O’Rourke has slipped from an early boom, and will decline further if he does not perform well, based on analysis of the news media and public opinion after. My gut feeling is he will disappoint and slip further.

My “favorites” among this group, Julian Castro and Amy Klobuchar, need to make a great impression, and I tend to think they will benefit by this debate.

Also to be watched is Tim Ryan, who represents the Rust Belt Midwest probably better than even Klobuchar, and while not well known now, seems likely by my gut feeling to do well enough to gain traction.

Jay Inslee, with his emphasis on climate change, should gain some attention, but it seems doubtful that he will make much progress.

Cory Booker, Tulsi Gabbard, Bill de Blasio, and John Delaney are highly doubtful to gain much at all in this debate, in the judgment of this author and scholar, but we shall see.

This is all speculation, and there will be plenty of debate after about the reality of what this debate does to thin the field of candidates.

My projection is that the last five candidates mentioned—Inslee,Booker, Gabbard, de Blasio, and Delaney– will all lose financial and poll support, leaving the other five—Warren, O’Rourke, Castro, Klobuchar, Ryan–still in the race!

The State Of The Democratic Presidential Race Before The First Debates At The End Of June

We are about two and a half weeks before the first Democratic Presidential debates, which will be held in Miami, Florida on June 26 and 27, and broadcast on MSNBC.

With 23 candidates, and only 20 scheduled to make it to the debates, based on public opinion polls and financial contributions, how do things stand at this point?

Joe Biden is comfortably ahead but is starting to make blunders and causing criticism to begin at his whole approach to his campaign, acting as if he does not have a major challenge, but that attitude will change quickly on the debate stage.

And if one looks at history, the front runner never ends up as the nominee in any Presidential competition.

So who seems to be charging ahead to challenge Joe Biden?

Bernie Sanders has been upended by Elizabeth Warren for the time being, and Mayor Pete Buttigieg continues to be a sensation in Town Hall debates.

Kamala Harris is also looking in good shape at this time.

On the other hand, Seth Moulton and Steve Bullock, late announcing as part of the race, may both fail to make the debate stage, while non politicians Marianne Williamson and Andrew Yang are certain to be there, and one wonders if they will have any impact.

Others, such as Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Julian Castro, Jay Inslee, and Kirsten Gillibrand are waiting hopefully for a big improvement in their fortunes at the end of June.

One thing is certain: A large number of the candidates will not survive the summer as serious contenders, as the first debate, and the second one in Detroit, Michigan, at the end of July, will cut down the competition, likely by one third to one half of the 23 contenders at the beginning of this competition.

Average Age Of Presidents Is 55: Should Democrats Choose A Younger Nominee?

The Democratic Party faces a quandary: Should they choose a younger nominee as more likely to attract younger voters?

Three times in the past half century, the Democrats picked a much younger nominee than the Republicans:

1976 Jimmy Carter 11 years younger than Gerald Ford

1992 Bill Clinton 22 years younger than George H. W. Bush

2008 Barack Obama 25 years younger than John McCain

All three of those Republicans were far less provocative and controversial than is Donald Trump.

Is nominating someone (Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden) who is older than Donald Trump a wise choice?

Is nominating someone only a few years younger (Elizabeth Warren, Jay Inslee, John Hickenlooper) a wise choice?

Or would it be far better to nominate someone much younger than Trump to attract younger voters, particularly millennials, someone in their 50s or 40s as a multitude of potential nominees are (ranging from Amy Klobuchar at age 60 down to Pete Buttigieg at age 39)–and including women, minorities, and a gay man to move the nation forward in the 21st century, with a greater guarantee that they will live out their one or two terms in the White House?

This is what Democrats in upcoming caucuses and primaries next year have to come to grips with, with no easy answer as to what should occur!

The American West A Rare Location For Presidential Contenders And Nominees Historically

Historically, the vast majority of Presidential contenders and nominees have come from no further west than the Great Plains.

And only two Presidential nominees, Richard Nixon, and Ronald Reagan, have been elected from the vast area west of the Great Plains. Even Nixon, when he ran for President the second time in 1968, was actually a resident of New York, while Reagan had spent his early life in Illinois, before migrating to Hollywood for an acting career.

Only two Presidential candidates, other than Nixon and Reagan, have made it as the nominees of their party, both from Arizona–Senators Barry Goldwater and John McCain.

The Mountain States have been particularly lacking in Presidential contenders historically, with only Senator Gary Hart and Congresswoman Patricia Schroeder of Colorado; Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico; Governor Bruce Babbitt of Arizona; and Senator Frank Church of Idaho having ever conducted campaigns for President, along with Senator William Borah of Idaho early in the 20th century.

Now, we have two Coloradans, former Governor John Hickenlooper and Senator Michael Bennet, contending for the Democratic Presidential nomination, and the soon to be contending Governor Steve Bullock of Montana, expected to announce in mid May.

Looking at the Pacific Coast states, we have only had Governor Jerry Brown of California and Senator Henry (Scoop) Jackson of Washington who have contended for the Presidency, along with Senator Hiram Johnson of California attempting a run in the early 20th century.

Now, we have Senator Kamala Harris of California and Congressman Eric Swalwell of California, Governor Jay Inslee of Washington, and Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, all running for the Democratic Presidential nomination.

Other than California, the likelihood of a future nominee or winner of the Presidency from those states west of the Great Plains would seem to be highly unlikely, as the population is much smaller than in the rest of the nation, although growth has been going on in some of those states, particularly Colorado, Arizona, and Washington.