The First Debate Mix: What To Expect

The first debate among Democratic Presidential candidates takes place on Wednesday June 26 at 9-11 pm on NBC and MSNBC.

It includes the following ten candidates:

Elizabeth Warren

Beto O’Rourke

Coey Booker

Julian Castro

Tulsi Gabbard

Jay Inslee

Amy Klobuchar

Bill de Blasio

John Delaney

Tim Ryan

This is a mix of three US Senators; four former or sitting US House members; a former Mayor and Cabinet Officer; a Mayor; and a Governor.

The one who needs to shine, based on her high poll ratings, and therefore expectations being high, is Elizabeth Warren. This author and blogger would imagine she will do very well in this debate.

Beto O’Rourke has slipped from an early boom, and will decline further if he does not perform well, based on analysis of the news media and public opinion after. My gut feeling is he will disappoint and slip further.

My “favorites” among this group, Julian Castro and Amy Klobuchar, need to make a great impression, and I tend to think they will benefit by this debate.

Also to be watched is Tim Ryan, who represents the Rust Belt Midwest probably better than even Klobuchar, and while not well known now, seems likely by my gut feeling to do well enough to gain traction.

Jay Inslee, with his emphasis on climate change, should gain some attention, but it seems doubtful that he will make much progress.

Cory Booker, Tulsi Gabbard, Bill de Blasio, and John Delaney are highly doubtful to gain much at all in this debate, in the judgment of this author and scholar, but we shall see.

This is all speculation, and there will be plenty of debate after about the reality of what this debate does to thin the field of candidates.

My projection is that the last five candidates mentioned—Inslee,Booker, Gabbard, de Blasio, and Delaney– will all lose financial and poll support, leaving the other five—Warren, O’Rourke, Castro, Klobuchar, Ryan–still in the race!

19 comments on “The First Debate Mix: What To Expect

  1. Former Republican June 26, 2019 10:06 pm

    Big loser so far: NBC technicians.

  2. Pragmatic Progressive June 26, 2019 10:09 pm

    Well, so far, it’s coming off better than I thought it would.

  3. Former Republican June 26, 2019 10:11 pm

    Trump just tweeted “BORING!”

    I may be naive, but I still think most voters want to hear actual ideas like we’re hearing tonight, and not see noogies and wedgies like we get at a Republican debate that includes Trump.

  4. Princess Leia June 26, 2019 10:12 pm

    Trump doesn’t understand that a debate is not supposed to be entertaining, it’s supposed to be informative.

  5. Rustbelt Democrat June 26, 2019 10:13 pm

    It’s not reality TV. It’s reality. It’s deadly serious. Sorry that serious reality bores you, Mango Mussolini

  6. Pragmatic Progressive June 26, 2019 10:16 pm

    Booker: Better than I thought.
    DeBlasio: Better than I thought, but that’s not saying much.
    Castro: WAY better than I thought.
    Delaney: …
    Gabbard: Can’t stand her. Many reasons. Don’t @ me.
    Inslee: … (sorry — I know some folks like him, but I’m not feeling it)
    Klobuchar: Racking up some moments.
    Beto: Worse than I thought.
    Ryan: About what I thought, which wasn’t much.
    Warren: About what I thought, which was a lot.

  7. Rational Lefty June 26, 2019 10:32 pm

    Warren gonna break out after tonight even more IMO.

  8. Southern Liberal June 26, 2019 10:34 pm

    1) This is too many people on the stage.
    2) Julian Castro is very very impressive…He’s my current #2…and that has been solidified

  9. Southern Liberal June 26, 2019 10:36 pm

    What I am noticing, no one is mentioning Trump, it has to be driving him crazy. He is irrelevant.

  10. Princess Leia June 26, 2019 10:39 pm

    Agreed, Pragmatic. Booker, Castro, Klobuchar, and Warren have been the best in this group.

  11. D June 26, 2019 11:29 pm

    Effective June 26, 2019 @ 11:30 p.m. ET, and with the fact that I will have to make this short before I go to bed, here is my more immediate response: Good-bye (alphabetically) John Delaney, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, and Tim Ryan.

  12. Rational Lefty June 27, 2019 12:49 pm

    Google searches for Booker and Castro have increased.

  13. D June 27, 2019 2:14 pm

    Here is an assessment of the 2020 Democratic presidential debate performances, of the first group of ten candidates, from June 26, 2019 (they are, within tiers, listed in alphabetical order):

    • Julian Castro — For a strong understanding on immigration (and being superior over a Tier Three opponent)
    • Bill de Blasio — For being aggressive, while others needed to be even more, and expressing some truly progressive positions
    • Tulsi Gabbard — For fielding a gotcha question (something of which no other candidate received; hence, my distrust of NBC News); and, within the last 30 minutes, expressing solidly the need to bring the soldiers home and end the war in Afghanistan (while being superior over a Tier Three opponent)
    • Elizabeth Warren — For stating she is determined to deliver on Medicare for All (and doing so in a way suggesting she truly does see it as the solution)

    • Cory Booker — For supporting LGBT persons; decent answers to debate questions
    • Jay Inslee — For expressing his record, as Governor of Washington, and signing bills for Climate Change

    • John Delaney — Pushes an anti-Medicare for All message (with right-wing talking points); said the purpose of the Democratic Party should be to fix problems (which means management, not actual leadership; which also means continuation of corporatism)
    • Amy Klobuchar — Despite improving her position on free college tuition (specifically for community college level), she did not come through with a compelling reason why one needs to vote her the nomination
    • Beto O’Rourke — The worst performance of all these ten candidates. No solid positions. Poor on immigration. He also talked frequently in circles rather than directly answer questions, especially for specifics on policies; empty
    • Tim Ryan — Started off with stating the Democratic Party needs to go back to being one for the working people (Rust Belt) rather than for elitists; that is fine; but, then he revealed he supports continued war in Afganistan (and, at the same, he made an incredible mistake)

    Here is an outstanding moment from the debate:

  14. D June 27, 2019 2:27 pm

    ‘Google Searches for Tulsi Gabbard Surge Across U.S. During Debate’

    By Allison Quinn (06.26.2019)

    Google searches for 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard spiked during the first round of debates on Wednesday night. By the end of the debate, Gabbard had clinched 40 percent of Google searches in the U.S., compared to Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s 17 percent and the 19 percent claimed by New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, according to Google Trends. Gabbard had somehow also managed to come out on top in Australia, where she secured 36 percent of Google searches. The Hawaii representative won herself a standout moment during the debate by correcting Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) when he said the Taliban was responsible for the 9/11 terror attacks. “The Taliban didn’t attack us on 9/11, al Qaeda did. That’s why I and so many other people joined the military, to go after al Qaeda after 9/11,” she said.

  15. Princess Leia June 27, 2019 4:56 pm

    DeBlasio – He came across as annoying to me. Chris Matthews seemed to like him, I guess because yelling and interrupting people is something they have in common, which is why Chris Matthews is one of my least favorites on MSNBC.

    Tulsi Gabbard is clearly betting that Americans will vote with foreign policy and national security in mind. But if polling so far offers any kind of insight, voters are attracted to the candidates who are talking about the economy and other domestic issues: Biden, Sanders and Warren.

    New York Times thinks that Elizabeth Warren may have hurt herself with the notion of getting rid of private insurance.
    Polling shows that many of the goals of Medicare-for-All are popular but doing away with private insurance is actually very unpopular. Polling shows that people are more interested in a middle ground.

  16. Rational Lefty June 27, 2019 5:02 pm

    Even the worst of the people on stage would be vastly better than Trump. I thought that overall, the Democrats presented an impressive group, vastly better than the ten people on stage in the first Republican debate in the 2016 cycle.

  17. Southern Liberal June 27, 2019 5:06 pm

    What I took away was a really good idea of what the Democratic Party has to offer America. Trump offers lies, shock and fear, but the Democrats last night offered – as a group – an idea what a government not run by oligarchs can offer us.
    I hope that this presentation shows what Democrats can offer America in opposition to the group of self-centered mentally ill criminals who run the Republican Party!

  18. Pragmatic Progressive June 27, 2019 5:16 pm

    I agree with the polling about Medicare For All. I think we can get to universal coverage with some level of private insurance a lot faster than ditching the whole system. As was pointed out in the debate, other countries have hybrid systems.

  19. Former Republican June 27, 2019 5:27 pm

    The moderators asked the question of how to you deal with Douchebag McConnell? The only way to handle McConnell is to defeat him at the ballot box, otherwise, you won’t get Medicare For All, etc. The “Grim Reaper,” as he likes to call himself, has been willing to ignore the will of the people on a whole host of issues that have overwhelming support amongst voters ever since the days when he tried to obstruct the Democrats from doing anything to help stop our descent toward a second Great Depression in 2009.

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