“Dark Horse”

The Rise Of Women Democratic Candidates For Public Office In 2018, And A Potential Star In Georgia Gubernatorial Nominee Stacey Abrams

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2018 is shaping up as the year of the Democratic women playing a major role in the party’s future and its structure, with 40 percent of all nominees so far this year being women.

On the other hand, the Republican Party is seeing a lessened level of participation by women.

The question is whether these women who are winning nominations for office across the nation can take those primary victories into the actual gaining of power.

The one woman who stands out the most is Stacey Abrams, who became the first black woman nominated to run for Governor in any state.

As the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia, if Abrams is able to win, do not be surprised that she might seek higher office some day, including the Presidency.

Abrams is only 44 and would take office at age 45, and if she has a good record, she could go the route of another Georgia Governor seen as a real “dark horse” and “long shot”.

That man is former President Jimmy Carter, elected Governor of Georgia 48 years ago in 1970, and within six years, he was the 39th President of the United States.

Potential For Four State Rivalries For President In Republican Caucuses And Primaries, And The Rest Of The Cast Of Characters!

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As the 2016 Presidential nomination battles begin, now that the Midterm Elections of 2014 are history, there is the potential for four state rivalries for President in the Republican caucuses and primaries.

Florida sees the potential candidacy of former Governor Jeb Bush and Senator Marco Rubio.

Ohio sees the potential candidacy of Governor John Kasich and Senator Rob Portman.

Texas sees the potential candidacy of former Governor Rick Perry and Senator Ted Cruz.

Wisconsin see the potential candidacy of Governor Scott Walker and Congressman Paul Ryan.

At this point, it seems likely that the Florida, Texas, and Wisconsin rivalries are likely to occur in reality, while Ohio is more questionable.

But, ironically, it is Ohio that has the best combination of potential candidates who could be serious competitors in November 2016, as both Kasich and Portman, while strongly conservative, come across as having a good chance to compete for the moderate center and Independents, and have not shot themselves in the foot, as five of the six others mentioned above have done on a regular basis.

The only other potential candidate of the above group of eight, who has a chance to accomplish the same as Kasich and Portman, is Jeb Bush.

Rubio, Cruz and Walker represent Tea Party right wing views, while Perry is an also ran and an embarrassment to himself, and Ryan was on a losing ticket with Mitt Romney, and has made no effort to moderate his harsh views on the poor of society, or his budget plans which do not add up to reality.

Add to this list a cast of characters which should be interesting but self destructive: Maryland pediatric surgeon Dr. Benjamin Carson; New Jersey Governor Chris Christie; former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee; Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal; Kentucky Senator Rand Paul; former Pennsylvania Governor Rick Santorum; and of course, 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney!

Oh, and one more Governor, who should not be ignored, as a possible “Dark Horse”, and having the ability to do what Kasich, Portman, and Bush could do–appeal to the center—Indiana Governor Mike Pence!

The Future Of The Republican Party: Rob Portman Vs. Mike Huckabee As A Symbol!

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With Gay Marriage rapidly expanding, by refusal of the Supreme Court to stop it in eleven states, raising the total of states to 30 and counting, the Republican Party now faces its future!

With a majority of states and population now supporting or accepting gay marriage, and with a majority of people under 50, and even a majority of Catholics and even evangelical Christians in support, how long will the Republican Party hold out and be on the wrong side of history?

Do they wish to be recorded and remembered in the long run for their refusal to accept that marriage is NOT something to be voted on, to have a popular vote (which would not be lost in any case) on a basic human right, both in race in Loving V. Virginia and on sexual orientation now? Do they wish to be seen for what they are now, biased, prejudiced, hateful, narrow minded, and allowing religious beliefs of some people to dictate the lives of everyone else, when we have separation of church and state?

Conservatives were wrong on civil rights for African Americans, wrong on interracial marriage, wrong on women’s rights, wrong on immigration then and now, and wrong on gay rights and marriage, and for the Republicans to continue to follow their hateful, narrow minded views, will guarantee the demise of the party of Lincoln, TR, and Ike!

The Republican Party has a choice! It is time for MORE Republican Senators, Congressmen, and Governors and other office holders to come out in support of gay marriage NOW! So far, only four sitting US Senators and a few members of the House of Representatives have had the courage to speak up. The Senators are Liza Murkowski of Alaska, Mark Kirk of Illinois, Susan Collins of Maine, and Rob Portman of Ohio.

The GOP will have a massive problem being elected to the House and Senate majorities in 2016, as it is, and the suddenly emerging “dark horse” status of Rob Portman, the only one of the above four Senators, who MIGHT consider running for President, and have a shot at being the nominee, present the Republican Party with a choice!

Either demand that any GOP nominee accept the inevitable, OR nominate Senator Portman as the most legitimate candidate for 2016, bypassing all the other extremist, lunatic, whacky candidates in the field, picking a moderate mainstream conservative as the future of the party!

Republicans, reject Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, and anyone else who refuses to accept gay marriage, and ONLY support a person such as Rob Portman, who has accepted it, and is from a key swing state, Ohio, which every winning President has won except in 1960 in modern times!

It is true that Portman supported gay rights and gay marriage due to his son coming out as gay, but he could have done what many so called “religious” people do, and repudiated his son, a most despicable act for any so called “religious” person to do, a mockery of the idea of religiosity!

If the GOP decides to follow the route of the above candidates who have made it clear that they will not accept gay marriage, the ideal candidate for them would be former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, a once seriously mainstream conservative candidate for President in 2008, who has gone off the deep end, become a lunatic, a bigoted man with crazy views, since he joined Fox News Channel, and now mirrors the lunatic right wing talk show hosts on radio, as well as Fox News Channel!

Huckabee has made clear that he will NOT accept what is happening on gay marriage, and if the GOP continues to give in to Supreme Court actions or lack of action on gay marriage, that he will leave the Republican Party!

The best thing the GOP could do is repudiate Huckabee, who has already destroyed his name in history, and have him leave the Republican Party, and let the swinging door hit him in his rear end, or in fact, kick him out the door, declaring to him and others like him, “good riddance!”

The best thing the GOP could do is nominate Rob Portman, or others who finally accept gay rights and gay marriage, and look to a future of NOT accepting prejudice, bias, and the power of the Religious Right, which should be escorted to the door, and told to go to Hell, where they belong!

A great ticket right now would be Portman of Ohio for President and Susan Collins of Maine for Vice President, and that would also overcome the misogyny of the Republican Party!

Governors And The Presidential Election Of 2016

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It has often been pointed out that more Governors have been elected President over the course of American history than Senators.

From 1900 on, the following Presidents were earlier Governors of their states—Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Calvin Coolidge, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush.

The argument is that being a Governor prepares one better for the Presidency than serving in the national government in Washington, DC.

Whether this is true or not, the argument now is that the national government, and particularly the Congress, is so engaged in stalemate and gridlock, that the best choice in the Presidential Election of 2016 would be to go once again for a Governor or former Governor, as occurred four times of the past six Presidents, and seven of the past ten national elections.

So if that is the case, what is the market among Governors?

First, the Democratic side:

Martin O’Malley of Maryland
Andrew Cuomo of New York
John Hickenlooper of Colorado
Mark Warner of Virginia
Brian Schweitzer of Montana
Jerry Brown of California
Howard Dean of Vermont
Deval Patrick of Massachusetts
Dannel Malloy of Connecticut

Now the Republican side

Chris Christie of New Jersey
Jeb Bush of Florida
Scott Walker of Wisconsin
Bobby Jindal of Louisiana
Rick Perry of Texas
John Kasich of Ohio
Jon Huntsman of Utah
Nikki Haley of South Carolina
Mike Pence of Indiana
Brian Sandoval of Nevada
Susana Martinez of New Mexico
Rick Scott of Florida

So, at least in theory, nine former or sitting Democratic Governors and twelve former or sitting Republican Governors are potential Presidential nominees.

Having said that, it is clear that some of these two groups are highly unlikely to be a candidate, or to have any realistic chance to be the nominee, including for the Democrats: Brown, Dean, Malloy, and Patrick, and for the Republicans: Scott, Martinez, Sandoval, Pence, Haley, and sadly (because he would be the best choice for the GOP long term), Huntsman.

For the Democrats, O’Malley and Cuomo and Warner (who has also served in the Senate), would be the best choices, were it not for the “800 pound gorilla” of Hillary Clinton and the slightly smaller version of Joe Biden. Were it not for them, these three listed Democrats would be a great term to compete for the nomination. Hickenlooper is also a good candidate, but would not be considered as likely to have a good chance, and Schweitzer might very well run, based on recent comments and activities, but the odds for him, especially against Clinton and Biden as things now stand, are extremely high of failure, and even of being mostly ignored by political pundits.

For the Republicans, Christie and Bush would be the most likely to have a real opportunity for the Presidency, but with the Tea Party Movement, neither is very popular, to say the least. Walker might be a better bet on that score, with Jindal seeming less attractive as time goes by, and Perry a real long shot based on his past performances. The “dark horse” to watch would be Kasich, who had a long career on Capitol Hill and knows how Washington works, and despite his mixed record in so many areas, is personally appealing, unlike any of those listed In this paragraph, in many ways the most appealing personally other than Huntsman.

If one had to bet which of each list would have the best chance, all things being equal, one would say O’Malley for the Democrats and Kasich for the Republicans, but the odds are that it will be someone from Capitol Hill–Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden for the Democrats, and Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, or Paul Ryan for the Republicans, with the Democrats having the clear edge in the Electoral College, because of the support of the Atlantic Coast and Pacific Coast, and the likelihood of strong support in the upper Midwest and Illinois and Iowa, along with Virginia, an unmatchable scenario for the Republicans, as we look at the political situation as 2013 ends, but always subject to changing times that are unpredictable.

A Lincoln-Douglas Style Debate In New Hampshire: Newt Gingrich Vs. Jon Huntsman Later In December!

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A very interesting two man debate will be occurring later in December in New Hampshire, with the opponents being former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, first in most public opinion polls right now, and former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, running last or close to last in most polls.

It would seem that there would be no purpose to such a debate for Gingrich, who fancies himself as a great debater, a brilliant intellectual, and boasts that the odds are great that he will be the GOP nominee for President.

But Gingrich will have a tough competitor in Jon Huntsman, who is superior in his knowledge on foreign policy over any other GOP candidate, and has a strong record of CONSISTENCY in his views on domestic matters. He is certainly the long term “dark horse” in the GOP race, hoping to emerge in New Hampshire and go on to Florida and beyond.

This author has been saying for a long time that Huntsman is the only truly viable candidate for the Republican Party, so this is his chance to shine and excel, and make Gingrich, the boaster, the braggart, the “windbag”, look bad!

This is of more value than the eight way debates that have been going on, and the whole concept of a Lincoln-Douglas debate is thrilling in so many ways!

And note that Mitt Romney has refused a Gingrich offer for a similar debate! And for sure, Romney would refuse a similar two way debate with Jon Huntsman!

The “Dark Horse” To Watch In The GOP Presidential Race: Jon Huntsman Of Utah!

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Anyone who is paying attention to the GOP Presidential race knows that there is great dissatisfaction with the field of candidates.

Either they are highly controversial and divisive figures such as Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum and Donald Trump.

Or else they are such long shots that are “unknowns” such as Herman Cain, Gary Johnson, and Buddy Roemer.

Or they are candidates who have been around before, and are seen by many as uninspiring, including Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee.

Or they are newcomers who are seen as having potential, such as Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman.

There is also Ron Paul, who excites the libertarian wing of the party, but has no chance to be the nominee.

And then, there are those who imagine that Chris Christie, the “bully” Governor of New Jersey, somehow can translate his tough guy image to the national scene.

In reality, other than Mitt Romney, who has many issues to deal with, but is seen by many as the best candidate, it is, as the author has said many times, Pawlenty and Huntsman who are the best alternatives, but in many ways, Huntsman is much more interesting.

Former Ambassador to China under President Obama, and former Governor of Utah, where he came across as a moderate, Huntsman is much more charismatic than Pawlenty. He is very handsome, dynamic, has the experience in China which makes him appear strong on foreign policy, and could be much more appealing in a two man race against Obama than any other candidate. He is truly the ultimate “dark horse” in the race, and this weekend, he is in South Carolina delivering the commencement address at the University of South Carolina. He is said to be ready to enter the race next month, and seems to many the most interesting person in the race.

Being a moderate on most issues, a Mormon like Romney is, and having worked for Obama in China, are all negatives to many, but don’t bet against him surviving a long way in the Presidential race and keeping it interesting!

Watch Jon Huntsman and read up on him, as he should be a major factor in the political race for 2012!