It has been more than 100 days now of the Donald Trump phenomenon, and for the first time, Donald Trump is not first, ending up second behind Dr. Benjamin Carson, in an Iowa public opinion poll. It seems as if the Trump surge may be starting to fray at the edges.
But the fact that Dr. Benjamin Carson is now ahead of Trump in Iowa, and the fact that Carly Fiorina, while weaker in polls than she was, is also still in the top few in any poll, one has to wonder will the Republican “Establishment”, which has always controlled the party nomination, except for Barry Goldwater a half century ago, be able to recover and choose the nominee of their party?
The fact that Texas Senator Ted Cruz is also doing better in the polls worries the “Establishment”, as Cruz is despised by John McCain, Mitt Romney, and now, even former President George W. Bush, who so stated that “I do not like that guy” at a fundraiser for his brother Jeb Bush, who is floundering badly in the polls, and has cut his campaign staff and spending, signs of a dying campaign.
But with Jeb Bush in trouble, and Chris Christie not improving his situation either, and predicted by many to be on his way out of the race soon, who is there the “Establishment” can have confidence in?  It comes down to a man who despite some stupid statements and low ratings in the polls still seems viable for some reason, and could run a decent campaign against Hillary Clinton, and at least compete in debates and in experience.
That is Ohio Governor John Kasich, with 18 years in the House of Representatives and in his second term as Governor, with a high public opinion rating, and slowly rising in New Hampshire, with little chance in the Iowa caucuses.
This blogger has said before that John Kasich is the best Republican in the race, although he is no J0n Huntsman, who competed in 2012, and is still the best Republican available to be President, although he is not running, and instead is promoting the “No Labels” movement for a bipartisan choice that could unite Democrats, Independents, and Republicans.
Ohio is the crucial state, as anyone who studies Presidential election history is well aware of, and were Kasich to combine with Florida Senator Marco Rubio, a “new generation” and telegenic figure from the other crucial state of Florida, a man who has some connection to the Establishment, but a foot in the camp of the challengers to the Establishment as well, it would be by far the best general election ticket.
Nobody in their right mind can think that Trump, Carson or Fiorina could actually win the election, but a Kasich-Rubio ticket, or even as some suggest, a Rubio-Kasich ticket of two men a generation apart in age as Barack Obama and Joe Biden are, with the “elder statesman” in the supporting role, COULD have a shot at winning over Hillary Clinton, although the odds are clearly, ultimately, against that scenario for the GOP!
I saw a news strip at the bottom of either CNN or MSNBC that said that evangelicals like Carson because he speaks softly.
Personally, I find Carson to be a rather boring speaker. A State of the Union speech by him would put Congress to sleep.
Ronald writes, “But with Jeb Bush in trouble…”
The ex-Florida governor looks like he’s on borrowed time with respect to his 2016 presidential campaign.
According to “Associated Press”‘s Julie Pace, from October 23, 2015, @ http://news.yahoo.com/bush-slashing-spending-shifting-staff-amid-campaign-woes-153452181–election.html# , “Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush is drastically slashing campaign spending, including an across-the-board pay cut for staff, and focusing more narrowly on early states, as the one-time front-runner seeks to salvage his bid for the GOP nomination.
“The moves will reduce the campaign’s payroll by 40 percent, while also cutting travel costs by 20 percent and eliminating extraneous overhead spending. Most campaign officials were told of the cost-cutting on Friday [October 23, 2015].”
That’s not good for a campaign just two months (and a few days) shy of the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries.
Furthermore, according to the report, “While Bush’s super PAC remains heavily funded, his campaign fundraising slowed in recent months. He reported collecting $13.4 million between July 1 and Sept. 30, less than Carson, who led the field with about $20 million. Bush ended September with about $10 million in cash.
“While Bush has benefited from a traditional fundraising style that his father and brother perfected – even inheriting many of the same money-raisers – his campaign has struggled to capture the power of harvesting small contributions over the Internet.
“Only about 4 percent of what he’s collected since the beginning of his campaign comes from donors giving $200 or less. That makes him one of the worst low-dollar fundraisers in the GOP field. Those donors are important because they can give again and again, providing waves of cash without taking up any of the candidate’s time.”
In other words: Jeb Bush hasn’t been inspiring and motivating people for the campaign funds that many thought would surely deliver…predicting any such thing a good year or so ago.
I would have anticipated that Jeb Bush would wipe the floor with his competition, as Mitt Romney did in 2012 en route to winning his Republican Party’s presidential nomination.
This suggests that Jeb Bush is not only vulnerable but is tapping out.
The strategy to streamline and then focus on key primary states can easily backfire as another candidate with the funds, Donald Trump, can win those key states instead of Bush. (The key states are New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Bush’s home state Florida. If a GOP nominee wins all three…that’s going to lead to rolling though the calendar of doing likewise in the most heavily-populous states regardless when their primaries/caucuses are scheduled.)
If the news gets any more dire for Jeb Bush … he may end up dropping out a lot sooner rather than later.
If Bush at this stage had either Trump’s or Carson’s polling numbers the drive by media would be announcing that the primary is over…you can be sure of that.
Another sign that Carson is completely insane. http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2015/10/25/3715892/carson-abortion-slavery/
LOL! Anything Carson doesn’t like is apparently as bad as slavery or the Holocaust.
The truth of the matter is that abolitionists, and even Lincoln as well as Fredrick Douglas did not accept the Dred Scott decision in which the Supreme Court constitutionalized the expansion of slavery. Nor did the civil rights leaders of the 19th and 20th century, MLK and Thurgood Marshall included, accept and submitted to the Plessy Ferguson decision in which the Supreme Court declared that segregation, that “separate but equal” was constitutional and did not violate the clear language and purpose of the 14th Amendment. In the same tone, those who believe in the value of human life from conception will not accept and will fight to overturn the other infamous decision known as Roe v Wade. That is all he is saying. And he is historically correct.
Totally second that Former Republican. Kooky stuff like that is why Teapublicans won’t be presidents.
New polls shows that only 17% of Americans actively support Teapublicans. http://www.commondreams.org/news/2015/10/26/tea-party-tanks-latest-poll-shows-new-low-faux-grassroots-movement
For me, legal personhood begins when the organism develops consciousness.
The moral dimensions of the case for life are similar to the moral dimensions of the case against slavery. In both instances, the abhorrent practice rested on dehumanization: the declaration that black Africans were somehow innately inferior to whites, and the declaration that unborn children are somehow less than fully and completely human.
To many of the defenders of slavery, the practice was an appropriate, paternal response to a race incapable of governing itself, a race that needed instruction and guidance to take its place among the peoples of the world.
Abortion-rights advocates believe something even more radical and profound — something worse than racist — that unborn children aren’t really people at all. They’re merely “potential†people or “clumps of cells†not much more distinct than a tumor or an ingrown toenail. In other words, while the Constitution declared slaves to be only three-fifths of a person, the sexual revolutionaries have persuaded the Supreme Court that an unborn child is no person at all. This view is held despite undeniable scientific evidence — from a knowledge base of the human person far superior to the knowledge base available in the 19th century — that an unborn child is distinctly human from the moment of conception, possessing his or her own unique DNA, and that while the baby is dependent on the mother, he or she is not part of the mother.
The abortion industry is an industry that preys upon millions of disproportionately poor and minority women by actively deceiving them about the status of their child, deploying rhetoric that minimizes or entirely denies the child’s fundamental humanity.
In other words, while women seeking abortions bear moral responsibility for their actions, that responsibility generally pales in comparison with the moral responsibility of the abortionist. Even worse than a slave-owner, the abortionist is a mass killer who possesses scientific knowledge far superior to all but the tiniest percentage of his or her patients. The abortionist knows the facts about the baby’s distinct DNA. The abortionist knows the gruesome reality of the procedure itself. And by relentlessly fighting against common-sense informed-consent laws, the abortion industry actively seeks to perpetuate ignorance in their targeted population.
Abortion is worse than slavery, abortionists are worse than slave owners, and America needs to hear that bracing truth.
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2ud2jp
If the pro-lifers truly value “life”, then they must value all life, not just the life of an embryo or a fetus.
Quite right. The sanctity of life has nothing to do with aborting a fetus, but everything to do with repecting a woman’s right to her own choices in life, and respecting and supporting those babies after they are born, something conservatives never, ever do.
He is right. There is an abortion issue that is akin to slavery. He just has it completely backwards. Forcing victims of sexual assault (he’s against abortions even in rape and incest cases, by the way) to have children against their will fits the definition of slavery.
My neighbor’s child is mentally retarded. If she got raped, she shouldn’t be forced to have the baby.
If it comes down to him and Hillary in the general election, women will have justice when Hillary kicks his butt!
Cheers to that Pragmatic!
But, Princess Leia, according to Ariel’s ethics and morality, that retarded child WOULD BE FORCED to have that baby, if she was raped, even if she was, let’s say 11 years old.
This is Ariel’s twisted sense of morality, as he does not give a damn about anything but his own assets, and displays his lack of concern for those less fortunate, due to his extremist right wing views that he wishes to impose on everyone else, except himself, of course!
Ronald, there are about 800 K abortions per year, of that 1% are due to rape and less that 0.5% are due to incest. I am a reasonable person and have no problem with exceptions. That’s said, even with those exceptions allowed it doesn’t change the nature of the abortion, it is still killing a human being. But I would support the principle of prohibiting killing unborn babies with just those 2 exceptions.
Carson needs to do a lobotomy on his own brain because his wires obviously aren’t connecting in there.
Carson and his cronies want a theocracy.
I second that Former Republican. We can’t let them do so.
Ronald, there are from 800 k to a million abortions every year in the US. Less than 1% are due to rape, and less than 0.5% are due to incest. Personally I find the incest and rape exceptions reasonable. In other words the principle should be no abortion, no killing of babies and the exceptions, rape, incest and danger to mother’s health. So I would gladly prohibit the other 98.5% of abortions and permit the 1.5% of abortions due to rape & incest. Now talking about rape, would you favor the death penalty for rapist? Would you favor castration for rapist? Would you favor life imprisonment for rapist?
Sex education and contraception have cut down on abortions, yet conservatives are even against that.
Leia: I am talking about abortion due to rape. Would you support the death penalty for rapist?
Exactly Leia. Abortion is only 3 percent of the services provided by Planned Parenthood. You defund Planned Parenthood, you defund alternatives to abortions.
Ariel, that is up to a judge and jury, not me or you!
Quite right Rational Lefty. The majority of their services is for things such as birth control consultations, STD testing, cancer screenings. That’s the things that will be affected most if Planned Parenthood gets defunded by Teapublicans.
Oh come on Ronald that is a cop out. Of course we all know that the Judge and Jury will decide in individual cases. You know very well what I am asking you. Should the law establish the death penalty in case of rape?
Ariel, not automatically, as it is not automatic with murder. Does that answer your question?
Folks – When Teapublicans talk about cutting stuff, they don’t think about what they are cutting and who it impacts.
I see, rapists and murderers have due process guarantees, as they should, yet unborn babies don’t.
Religious moralism has no place in the public policies of a country that claims to separate church and state.
Precisely. Pro-life politicians should not be forcing their beliefs on others.
I clearly see a danger of puritanism in the pro-life movement.
The religious right are the modern-day puritans. They want us all wearing Scarlet Letters.
I never knew that defending the life of the unborn babies was exclusively a religious, puritan issue…and that those who defend the right to kill/murder unborn babies are somehow to be considered compassionate. Who knew?
They are correct. For many on the pro-life side, it definitely is a religious thing.
LOL! The troll is totally wrong about our views.
Many of us here are pro-choice. Pro-choice occupies the broad middle ground on the abortion issue. A large majority of North Americans believe abortion should be decided privately between a woman and her doctor. Pro-choice people include those who are personally against abortion or feel uncomfortable with it, but who would not impose their viewpoint by law onto all women. Pro-choice does not mean pro-abortion. We do not advocate abortion over birth – we simply defend the right of women to decide for themselves. The pro-choice movement supports and works towards preventing unwanted pregnancies, reducing abortion, promoting contraception, educating women and youth, and ensuring families have the necessary resources to raise healthy, happy children.
Seconded Pragmatic. That’s totally correct.
“Many of us here are pro-freemen. Pro-freemen occupies the broad middle ground on the slavery issue. A large majority of Americans believe the slavery issue should be decided between the people of the states and their government. Pro-freemen people include those who are personally against slavery or feel uncomfortable with it, but who would not impose their viewpoint by law onto all slave-holding states. Pro-freemen does not mean pro-slavery. We do not advocate abolition over state rights – we simply defend the right of to decide for states to decide for themselves. The pro-freemen movement supports and works towards preventing unwanted slavery, reducing slavery, promoting freedom, educating slaveholders and slaves, and ensuring slaveholders have the necessary resources to raise healthy, happy slaves who will one day be free if the slaveholder chooses.”
And that was sooooo not funny.
And it’s obvious our troll doesn’t want to carry on a serious conversation.
That’s because he’s a Teapublican. They don’t know the meaning of the word “serious”. If they did, Kasich would be at the top of the polls instead of nuts like Trump and Carson.
Former Republican, you are totally correct that John Kasich is the best bet for the GOP, but the Tea Party–Freedom Caucus is going to destroy the party’s future and someone else, who has no chance to win, will likely be the nominee!
My leftist progressive “friends”, you accuse me of not being serious yet you are the first to hurl insults at anyone who happens to disagree with your views. I have been accused of a) having twisted sense of morality, b) not giving a damn about anything but my own assets, c) displaying a lack of concern for those less fortunate, d) of being a moron, e) lying through my teeth with a grin, f) of being greedy and selfish and more. Now how is that serious? It only proves that it is you who do not wish to carry out a serious and civilized conversation. I at least try sometimes to put some humor in all of this.
Those aren’t insults, dude.
The troll can’t handle the truth.
There you go again. Lashing out. Why do you seem so angry? At least that is how you come across.
We’re not lashing out.
If you cannot take the heat, get out of the kitchen, is the old saying, Ariel.
You are an extremist, and hate being labeled what you are, but now the GOP has gone against your Tea Party Freedom Caucus, good for them! Common sense and reality!