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Governors And The Presidential Election Of 2016

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It has often been pointed out that more Governors have been elected President over the course of American history than Senators.

From 1900 on, the following Presidents were earlier Governors of their states—Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Calvin Coolidge, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush.

The argument is that being a Governor prepares one better for the Presidency than serving in the national government in Washington, DC.

Whether this is true or not, the argument now is that the national government, and particularly the Congress, is so engaged in stalemate and gridlock, that the best choice in the Presidential Election of 2016 would be to go once again for a Governor or former Governor, as occurred four times of the past six Presidents, and seven of the past ten national elections.

So if that is the case, what is the market among Governors?

First, the Democratic side:

Martin O’Malley of Maryland
Andrew Cuomo of New York
John Hickenlooper of Colorado
Mark Warner of Virginia
Brian Schweitzer of Montana
Jerry Brown of California
Howard Dean of Vermont
Deval Patrick of Massachusetts
Dannel Malloy of Connecticut

Now the Republican side

Chris Christie of New Jersey
Jeb Bush of Florida
Scott Walker of Wisconsin
Bobby Jindal of Louisiana
Rick Perry of Texas
John Kasich of Ohio
Jon Huntsman of Utah
Nikki Haley of South Carolina
Mike Pence of Indiana
Brian Sandoval of Nevada
Susana Martinez of New Mexico
Rick Scott of Florida

So, at least in theory, nine former or sitting Democratic Governors and twelve former or sitting Republican Governors are potential Presidential nominees.

Having said that, it is clear that some of these two groups are highly unlikely to be a candidate, or to have any realistic chance to be the nominee, including for the Democrats: Brown, Dean, Malloy, and Patrick, and for the Republicans: Scott, Martinez, Sandoval, Pence, Haley, and sadly (because he would be the best choice for the GOP long term), Huntsman.

For the Democrats, O’Malley and Cuomo and Warner (who has also served in the Senate), would be the best choices, were it not for the “800 pound gorilla” of Hillary Clinton and the slightly smaller version of Joe Biden. Were it not for them, these three listed Democrats would be a great term to compete for the nomination. Hickenlooper is also a good candidate, but would not be considered as likely to have a good chance, and Schweitzer might very well run, based on recent comments and activities, but the odds for him, especially against Clinton and Biden as things now stand, are extremely high of failure, and even of being mostly ignored by political pundits.

For the Republicans, Christie and Bush would be the most likely to have a real opportunity for the Presidency, but with the Tea Party Movement, neither is very popular, to say the least. Walker might be a better bet on that score, with Jindal seeming less attractive as time goes by, and Perry a real long shot based on his past performances. The “dark horse” to watch would be Kasich, who had a long career on Capitol Hill and knows how Washington works, and despite his mixed record in so many areas, is personally appealing, unlike any of those listed In this paragraph, in many ways the most appealing personally other than Huntsman.

If one had to bet which of each list would have the best chance, all things being equal, one would say O’Malley for the Democrats and Kasich for the Republicans, but the odds are that it will be someone from Capitol Hill–Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden for the Democrats, and Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, or Paul Ryan for the Republicans, with the Democrats having the clear edge in the Electoral College, because of the support of the Atlantic Coast and Pacific Coast, and the likelihood of strong support in the upper Midwest and Illinois and Iowa, along with Virginia, an unmatchable scenario for the Republicans, as we look at the political situation as 2013 ends, but always subject to changing times that are unpredictable.

15th Anniversary Of Bill Clinton Impeachment By The Republican House Of Representatives

Ronald 3 Comments

Fifteen years ago today, President Bill Clinton was impeached by the Republican House Of Representatives on flimsy grounds, and well knowing that there was no possibility of Clinton being removed from office in his impeachment trial in the US Senate.

The major issue was Clinton’s illicit sexual tryst with Monica Lewinsky, but as reprehensible as that was, it was not an impeachable act, a high crime or misdemeanor, and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, Majority Leader Bob Livingston, and Judiciary Committee Chairman Henry Hyde were guilty of the same reprehensible behavior.

Clinton survived the impeachment trial, and has recovered very nicely in public opinion ever since, really the most popular former President in modern times while still alive and kicking.

His wife, Hillary Clinton, has had a distinguished career in the Senate and State Department, and is for now the frontrunner for the Presidency in 2016, even if one can see faults and issues in her record, which is par for the course for any Presidential candidate.

Bill Clinton has devoted his life to good deeds through the Clinton Initiative and Clinton Foundation, and like Jimmy Carter, has devoted his post Presidency to commitment to social justice.

Impeachment was a major mistake, and yet now the Republicans in the House are threatening to impeach President Barack Obama, although he has done nothing to deserve such action, and were he to be impeached, again he would not be removed, but it is all based on vindictiveness and hate.

Virginia State Leaders All Democrats For First Time Since 1969 State Election: Harbinger Of Future In South!

Ronald 6 Comments

It is now official. Virginia has the first all “blue” state government, with the top three state officials–Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General being Democrats–since the 1969 state election, 34 years ago!

And the state has gone Democratic twice for Barack Obama, and its two US Senators are Democrats.

With the northern Virginia suburbs going Democratic, and the seat of Republican Congressman Frank Wolf, a moderate Republican now open in 2014, due to the retirement of Wolf after 34 years, it is clear that Virginia is becoming more clearly “blue”, a harbinger for the South, as the Hispanic-Latino population continues to grow.

Over the next few years, we will see more of this growing trend toward “blue” in the South, with Georgia next, and soon after Texas, and once that happens, the chances of the Republican Party winning Presidential elections, the ability to win the Electoral College, will be a dim memory, particularly with the growing right wing trend of the GOP.

The Republican Party is committing suicide before our eyes, and if the Tea Party succeeds in defeating sitting traditional conservative Republicans in primaries in 2014, the acceleration toward “blue” will multiply!

PS A correction needs to be made. All three state officials plus the two US Senators are Democrats for first time since 1969, but in 1989 the Democrats won all three statewide elections for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General, and had one Senator (Chuck Robb), while the other Senator was John Warner, a Republican. Just wish to clarify this matter and I thank Engineer of Knowledge for making me aware of the need to modify this entry!

Des Moines Register Poll On Presidential Race Of 2016

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The Des Moines Register, the leading newspaper in Iowa, has started to poll on who is favored in the Iowa Caucuses, the first vote of a presidential election year, always held in January, which can catapult a candidate all the way to the Presidency, as it did for Barack Obama on January 3, 2008.

Of course, polling this early is no real indicator of what will happen in two years, and in fact, being an early leader is a hex, and usually means that someone else will end up winning the Iowa Caucuses and have the edge to be the Presidential nominee of a political party.

But, if for nothing other than political discussion and debate, the poll shows Hillary Clinton in the lead, with only Joe Biden being competitive with her in any fashion. The other names listed, really “dark horses”, are Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley and, surprising to some, former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, both of whom have shown interest in running, with Schweitzer being much more open about it.

On the Republican side, five have a positive rating of more than 50 percent, including in order, Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan (VP running mate of Mitt Romney in 2012), former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (now a Fox News talk show host), Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, and tied for fifth, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul. Under 50 percent are Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz.

It is interesting that the front runners are people who have lost their last race, while the also rans are newer people, many of whom have an extremist image, although really, all of the ten listed are extremists on the right, with the exception of Christie and Bush.

And Hillary Clinton has enough support for now that she would seemingly have an edge over any and all Republicans, and remember that Barack Obama carried Iowa twice in a state that, despite its strong right wing evangelical image, votes Democratic for President in recent elections, and is likely to do the same in 2016, whether it is Hillary or Joe Biden or some newer candidate for the Democrats.

John Boehner And Paul Ryan Vs. The Tea Party Radicals!

Ronald 14 Comments

The Speaker of the House and the Budget Committee Chairman have thrown down the gauntlet to the right wing Tea Party Movement members of its Republican caucus, and to the pressure groups and talk radio and Fox News Channel critics.

And the good news that 169 members of the GOP caucus backed John Boehner and Paul Ryan, including House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, a bit of a surprise since Cantor tends to hobnob with the radicals a good deal of the time, is welcome!

While this means the budget bill will stabilize the economy, and allow some progress next year on some items on the agenda, it is almost certain that IF the Tea Party challenge succeeds in 2014 House and Senate races, challenging incumbents, then Boehner will no longer be Speaker of the House, and Ryan may be ousted as Budget Committee chairman.

One would think that Boehner and Ryan are moderates. which is extremely far from the truth, but they are at least responsible legislators, who realize that with divided government, some negotiation and compromise is essential, in order to get anything done.

The hope is that the tumult in the GOP will enhance chances of the Democrats winning back control of the House, and with a Senate where the filibuster is rarely used due to the new 51 vote majority requirement, hopefully the next Congress in 2015 will make us forget what a disaster the 113th Congress has been, the worst in modern American history!

Bipartisan Budget Bill First In 15 Years, And Tea Party Radicals Are Outraged!

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The Paul Ryan-Patty Murray bipartisan budget deal, while far from perfect, is the first cooperation on formulation of the budget in the past 15 years.

Liberal Democrats are furious that unemployment compensation has not been extended, and that food stamps seem to be about to have a major budget cut, totally unacceptable on moral grounds.

But the deal also prevents a government shutdown and constant budget crises every few months, a reality which infuriates the Tea Party radicals.

So there is a live rebellion in both parties, but the greater one is between House leaders, including Speaker John Boehner and Budget Chairman Paul Ryan, against large elements of their own party, and strong opposition from Tea Party Senators, including Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio,along with Tom Coburn, and reportedly, Mitch McConnell, the Senate Republican leader, who is facing a Tea Party primary for his seat in Kentucky next year.

No one can be happy that those most needy are going to be ignored by the Scrooges of the Republican Party, but to see Boehner and Ryan being attacked by fellow Republicans, and the Presidential race playing into it, is an amazing event to watch.

Paul Ryan, IF he wishes to be President, will be attacked by Paul, Cruz, Rubio and others for his willingness to make a bipartisan deal, far from ideal, but just the fact of BIPARTISANSHIP drives the right wing and its advocacy groups and its talk show hosts bonkers!

Republican Infighting Rising!

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It is now clear that the Republican Party is imploding rapidly!

Witness the condemnation by right wing groups of the budget deal arranged by Congressman Paul Ryan and Democratic Senator Patty Murray of Washington, which helps to avoid another government shutdown, and attempts to provide a stable economic environment for the next two years. As Ryan said it, it is essential for some compromise, while not giving up one’s core principles. The deal is far from great, and will require payment of some retirement contributions by people in the military, and higher airline fees for passengers, but it is a step forward to avoid more economic chaos.

But various right wing groups have opposed the deal, and it is likely that Speaker John Boehner will have to count on Democratic votes to get the package approved later this week, before Congress takes a holiday break, possessing the worst record for performance of modern Congressional history! Boehner has already expressed his annoyance at conservative groups, and so the the infighting continues, as Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Tom Coburn have already denounced the agreement.

One outcome of this agreement is likely the death knell of a Paul Ryan campaign for President, because after all, he was willing to “compromise”!

But this is not the only infighting going on, as Newt Gingrich and Ted Cruz had the “gall” to issue statements complimentary of Nelson Mandela, infuring the far Right, as if Gingrich and Cruz are not part of that group. It is the crazy loonies attacking the mere crazies.

For progressives, it is a fun time, and all that one needs is some soda and popcorn, and sit and enjoy the lunatic fringe acting more looney by the moment!

HUGE Victory For Obama And Democrats In Reform Of Filibuster Use!

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Finally, after almost five years as President, Barack Obama can savor victory, knowing he will be able to get his nominees for all federal executive branch positions and federal judiciary, except for the Supreme Court, confirmed by the Democratic Senate. Majority rule will govern, as it should, and as it does, in the House of Representatives!

And because the Republicans shot themselves in the foot, not allowing the approval of three nominees for the DC Circuit Courts, they will now see the federal courts tip dramatically toward Democratic and more liberal judges!

At the moment, there are exactly 390 federal judges appointed by Republican Presidents, and an equal number of 390 federal judges appointed by Democratic Presidents.

If Mitch McConnell, the Senate Minority Leader, had allowed the confirmation of those three judges that were just voted down by the use of the filibuster, requiring 60 votes to move a nomination, then the balance would have remained on the federal courts between Democratic and Republican appointments.

But now, that is not so, and the Democrats and Barack Obama will gain a potential total of 93 appointments for vacancies on the courts, making for a one sided Democratic control of the judiciary, which will last for years, as the judiciary are on the court for life, not limited terms.

So as the Republicans lick their wounds, and realize their abuse of the filibuster in the past five years, and their arrogance, have led to this moment, the Democrats have a lot to celebrate about, as nothing is more important than affecting the future of constitutional law, and the Republicans have given the Democrats a huge victory, which will reverberate for decades, and give those who believe in progressive reform and change, a sense of hope that there IS a future in America, for others than rich, white people!

The Pluses And Minuses Of A Bernie Sanders Independent Presidential Candidacy

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Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is a true national treasure, an independent Socialist, longest serving Independent member of Congress in American history, who allies with the Democratic Party but is not a member of the party.

Sanders, originally Mayor of Burlington, Vermont, served as the only House member from his state for 16 years, from 1991-2007, and is now in his second term in the US Senate.

He has now devoted 23 years to service for his state and the nation, and even if one does not agree with his stands on issues, no sane person sees him as a threat simply because he is a “socialist”.

Sanders has now suggested that he might run as an Independent candidate for President in 2016 if no one else in the Democratic Party is willing to promote what he believes in, suggesting Senator Elizabeth Warren as a potential nominee that he could support.

Sanders makes it clear that someone has to run on the issues of Wall Street control, the problem of growing poverty affecting the middle class, the crisis of global warming, and the need to protect Social Security and Medicare, all issues he has been in the forefront on, more than just about anyone else.

The danger of a potential independent candidacy by Sanders, which he admits is mostly unlikely, is that it would split the Democratic vote and help a right wing Republican to win the White House.

That was the effect of Ralph Nader in the Presidential Election of 2000, and the last thing we need is a Republican who will set progress backward ever further.

So while Bernie Sanders is appealing, it is hoped he will decide, ultimately, not to run, and if Elizabeth Warren runs and loses, that she will unite behind whoever is the Democratic nominee, even if seen as a comparative moderate, such as Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden or Mark Warner.

Disllusionment With Washington Opens Up Possibility Of State Governors Again Having Advantage For Presidential Race!

Ronald 3 Comments

Much of the time in American history, there has been disillusionment with the Washington DC establishment, and a desire to have an “outsider” being our President.

Only three Presidents of the past century were elected directly from the Senate—Warren G. Harding, John F. Kennedy, and Barack Obama—while a total of six Governors or former Governors were elected to the Presidency—Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush. Additionally, former Governors who were Vice President first, and succeeded during the term—Theodore Roosevelt and Calvin Coolidge–were also elected to a full term.

So the present anger at Washington and everything it represents opens up new opportunities for sitting or former Governors in both parties, such as follows:

Democrats—Andrew Cuomo of New York, Martin O’Malley of Maryland, Deval Patrick of Massachusetts

Republicans-Chris Christie of New Jersey, Jeb Bush of Florida, Jon Huntsman of Utah, Scott Walker of Wisconsin, John Kasich of Ohio, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Rick Perry of Texas, Susana Martinez of New Mexico

Having said this, one still has to wonder if the Democratic Governors can overcome Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden or Mark Warner or Elizabeth Warren or Amy Klobuchar or Cory Booker.

And one has to wonder if the Republican Governors can overcome Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum and others.