Texas Senate Election 2026

Texas Senate Race Likely To Promote Flip Of Senate To Democrats!

In a surprise, but not shocking development, President Donald Trump has abandoned Texas Senator John Cornyn, who voted with him almost all of the time, and instead, has thrown his support and endorsement to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a highly divisive and corrupt figure, for the upcoming Senate Republican Primary runoff, taking place on May 26.

Trump has proved yet again that loyalty is a one way street, as no matter how much any Republican backs him, if such individual shows any independence or expresses doubt about some Trump utterance or policy, Trump is very willing to abandon him.

This led to the defeat of Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie, because of his persistence in pursuing the Epstein Scandal, and speaking out in criticism of the Iran War.

This led to the defeat of Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy, who went against his own best judgment to support Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services, despite his crazy views on vaccines. But Cassidy also voted to convict Trump on impeachment charges after the January 6, 2021 US Capitol Insurrection, so Trump went on the attack for Cassidy’s “disloyalty”.

Now, Cornyn, who was Senate Majority Whip after 2014, and was a contender for Senate Majority Leader in 2024, faces the likelihood that he will lose his seat to a man, Attorney General Ken Paxton, who was impeached but not convicted in the Texas state legislature, for corruption, and also was cheating on his wife, who is presently suing him for divorce. But Trump says Paxton is a “True” MAGA Republican.

The end result is the strong likelihood that Texas State Senator and Democratic Senatorial nominee James Talarico, who has great charisma and personal presence, will have an easier time winning the Senate seat, the first Democratic statewide victory in 30 years. If Talarico wins, the likelihood of Democratic control of the US Senate in the 120th Congress (2027-2029) seems assured.

Talarico will turn 37 this summer, and is perceived by many as a future leader of the Democratic Party nationally, if he can win the Texas Senate seat, and some observers see him as having potential for national office.

Texas Senate Primary On March 3 A Crucial Moment For Both Political Parties

What may be the most crucial Senate race of all in 2026 is the Texas race, where Republican Senator John Cornyn is being seriously challenged by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and African American Congressman Wesley Hunt; and where Democratic African American Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett is being challenged by Texas State Representative James Talarico, with the upcoming primary to be on March 3, less than a month from today, and if a runoff is needed, on May 26.

Cornyn has been in the Senate since 2002, and is now 74 years old, and has held leadership positions in the Senate, including Senate Republican Whip from 2013-2019. Not considered “Conservative Enough”, he is facing a tough intraparty battle with Ken Paxton, embattled and hardline MAGA conservative often praised by President Donald Trump, although so far, Trump has remained neutral in this intraparty battle.

Paxton has been shown to be corrupt in his dealings and rhetoric, and was impeached by the Texas House Republicans, although found not guilty by the Texas Senate Republicans. He is considered highly corrupt and outrageous in utterances, and also was revealed to be cheating on his wife, who now has filed for divorce.

Congressman Wesley Hunt, 20 years younger than Paxton, and thirty years younger than Cornyn, is a “wild card” in the primary race. A military veteran who graduated from West Point (the US Military Academy), and remained in the military for eight years, he would represent a modernization of the Republican Party in Texas, and could help decide whether Cornyn or Paxton win the nomination, and with an outside chance with three candidates, that he could pull off an upset. If no candidate gains a majority in the primary, there will be a runoff.

A major “revolution” in Texas Republican politics would be if, somehow, Hunt could win over both Cornyn and Paxton, and even more so, if he faced Jasmine Crockett, making for two young African American politicians with vastly different viewpoints as the finalists in the Senate race. However, if Texas State Representative James Talarico, who is only 36, was to run against Hunt, that would also be a major “revolution” in Texas politics.

The “youth” movement would be served by Hunt and Crockett, both born in 1981, and Talarico, born in 1989, rather than the old, stodgy leadership of Cornyn, or the corrupt leadership of Paxton.

The thought at the moment is that if Paxton wins the Republican nomination, it would make it easier for Crockett or Talarico to win the Senate seat, while if Cornyn won the nomination, he would have an edge over either of them.

But Talarico has done well in public opinion polls, and could be the most exciting Senate candidate of the 2026 Senate cycle, if he can triumph over Crockett.

If either Crockett or Talarico can win the Senate race, it would be a sign of a likely takeover of the Senate majority by the Democratic party.