Midterm Elections Of 2010

The Growing Impact Of Florida As A Microcosm Of The American Political Scene For 2010!

Chuck Todd on MSNBC this morning referred to the state of Florida as a microcosm of the American political scene for 2010!

The Florida political scene includes the role of independent candidacies (Governor Charlie Crist); the impact of “outsiders” becoming factors (Rick Scott and Jeff Greene); the battle within the major party structures (Bill McCollum vs. Rick Scott in the Republican party and Kendrick Meek vs. Jeff Greene in the Democratic Party); the impact of the Tea Party Movement (Marco Rubio); the effects of the Great Recession (mortgage foreclosures and effects of the BP Oil Spill on the economy); and the constant change in the Florida electorate due to immigration and population growth and migration!

As the late Tim Russert once said, Florida has become the center of American politics in so many ways, as it has become the fourth largest state, on its way to number three, although delayed a bit by the Great Recession in its population boom!

So the primaries on August 24 and the elections on November 2 will be closely watched as barometers of the American political future in so many ways!

America’s Crisis With Institutions And Centers Of Authority: The Reality Of Class Conflict!

It is becoming increasingly evident that America is facing a crisis over institutions and authority!

The average American is disillusioned and angry with all major institutions and centers of authority, the feeling that the interests and viewpoints of the average American are being ignored, and that they are victims of the corruption and malfeasance that exists in all of these institutions and centers of authority!

The institutions are big business corporations, banking and finance, auto companies, insurance companies, but also organized religion, the news media, labor unions, major league sports, the most prestigious universities, and most disconcerting of all–our own local, state and national governments! πŸ™

All of these institutions and centers of authority have witnessed corruption and scandals, and many have them have shocked average Americans who feel a need to believe that our major institutions work! But, along with corruption and scandals, we have also witnessed incompetence and a level of arrogance that has totally alienated millions of Americans, who feel as if they have no anchor to latch onto, no institution that can assure them of stability and reliability! πŸ™

A lot of this feeling is due to the horrific economic situation that millions of Americans have suffered through in the past two and a half years as the economy has gone through the biggest meltdown since the Great Depression of the 1930s!

But the difference is that the average American has been accustomed to more materialism and prosperity prior to the Great Recession, than was true before the Great Depression!

Having become accustomed to more, the loss of economic status now is far worse psychologically and in real life situations than it was in the 1930s! This is a loss of economic status that affects not just those who are racial minorities (although they are comparatively suffering to a greater extent based on statistics), but also the white majority which also sees minority advancement and immigration as major threats to their own status, which has been rapidly declining as well! πŸ™

So while there are racial tensions, and accusations back and forth this week between the Tea Party Movement and the National Association For The Advancement Of Colored People, the real crisis is not race itself, but rather CLASS! The middle class is being rapidly destroyed, the poor are worse off than ever, and the upper class is becoming more stratified and narrowly based!

The dangers of violence and radical action, while certainly always possible between racial, ethnic and nationality groups, is much greater on the issue of class! Basically, the “American Dream” concept is being destroyed, although many would say it has always been a myth, that anyone can go from “rags to riches”!

This disillusionment and tension in America explains why millions have no faith in their national government under President Barack Obama, or even in the state and local governments!

This complicates the issue of how to deal with the economic crisis we face, if citizens complain about the power of corrupt economic interests, but also remain angry at government attempting to resolve the issue!

The danger is that the lack of faith in government could lead to anarchy in America, which is NOT acceptable as a solution! So the crisis of confidence in America’s future, and how to deal with it and resolve it, is the major crisis the country faces as we move into the campaign season for the midterm elections of 2010! πŸ™

The Obama Coalition In Trouble As 2010 Midterm Election Nears! :(

President Obama has a lot of accomplishments to be proud of, and has been judged by observers as having accomplished more in 18 months than any President, other than Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt and Lyndon B. Johnson!

But try and tell that to the various groups which made up the Obama coalition of 2008!

Labor Unions are unhappy with Obama for failure to gain major labor goals!

Gays are impatient with Obama for the end of “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” and other initiatives not yet accomplished!

Jews have been unhappy with Obama because he has been perceived as tougher on Israel, although the recent Obama-Netanyahu summit seems to have changed the image of antagonism that had existed between the President and the Israeli Prime Minister!

Environmentalists are unhappy with Obama’s handling of the BP Oil Spill!

Hispanics are upset that the illegal immigration issue has made little progress in Congress, although happy that Obama has initiated a lawsuit against Arizona through his Justice Department!

Young people are having trouble finding jobs when they leave high school and college, and it tends to make them less enthusiastic to work for Obama and his party in the midterm elections, and even to vote! πŸ™

Independents and moderates have been backing away also from Obama, and the percentage of white voters who backed Obama are now declining in support for him and his party, at least based on public opinion polls!

Educators are displeased with Obama with his promotion of accountability for teachers, and his pushing of educational reform not supported by the teachers unions!

Many liberal bloggers and talk show hosts and journalists are becoming more highly critical of the President and his party!

It is ironic that Obama has accomplished a lot, but yet it is simply not enough to please most of his constituencies, and yet the reality is that if the Republican Party wins control of Congress or makes major gains, it will make all of the initiatives of Obama harder, if not impossible, to achieve!

So in many respects, the criticisms and opposition developing is self defeating, as while Obama may be far from perfect, any weakening of his ability to accomplish his goals will only weaken and harm his constituencies!

So if there is any common sense out there, it is time for the coalition to stop sniping, and work to back the Democrats and Barack Obama, or they will be responsible for the demise of their desired goals and accomplishments!

Are We On The Way To A Third Depression? The 2010 Midterm Elections Are The Key! :(

Nobel Prize Winning Economist Paul Krugman, a NY Times columnist, has stated recently that the United States is in danger of falling into a “Third Depression” that will last for many years! πŸ™

This is not the first time the suggestion has been made, mostly out of fear, that the economic downturn that began in December, 2007, may slip further into a long range deterioration in employment, housing, corporate growth, state and local government services, and sustainability of the government “safety net”! πŸ™

Krugman describes what he calls the “Long” Depression of 1873-1879, begun by the Panic of 1873 on Wall Street, but causing economic instability for two decades after the formal end of the event, lasting until the turn of the 20th century!

Of course, the later “Great” Depression of 1929-1939, which saw a revival from 1933-37, but then a further decline in 1937-38, was the worst economic times this nation has ever seen! πŸ™

The problem in Krugman’s estimation is that MORE economic stimulus is needed, rather than less, and this debate about spending versus the deficit is raging in Washington, DC, and will determine the future of this economic downturn we are living through, which is called by many others besides Krugman, as the “Great Recession!” πŸ™

IF the Republicans, with their lack of ideas on the economy other than more tax cuts for the rich, somehow regain control of both houses of Congress in the midterm elections, then it seems quite clear that we are doomed to a further decline and total social disintegration, as if conditions do not improve, the danger of a breakdown of law and order is a real threat! πŸ™

As the author stated in an earlier entry, we cannot afford to let 2010 and after become 1937-38, when Franklin D. Roosevelt gave in to criticism of government spending, cut government programs, and triggered a new economic collapse only turned around by World War II!

So the midterm elections are the key to our economic future, and will determine much of the next decade of economic history for all Americans!

Barack Obama: From “Yes, We Can!” to “Yes, We Did!”

Barack Obama is beginning an aggressive campaign in the midterm elections, attacking the Republicans as the Party of NO, which they certainly have been!

Instead of being the “gentleman” who is criticized as unwilling to go after the critics of the administration, Obama is showing the courage to hold the GOP accountable for its record, and to go after Republican candidates who, in many cases, if elected, would be worse than those now in office in Washington, DC! πŸ™

The slogan during the Presidential campaign was “Yes, We Can!”, and now the new slogan in the midterm campaign is “Yes, We Did!”

This is a well reasoned but easy message to voters: Barack Obama and his administration have accomplished more in domestic policy changes and foreign policy initiatives than any Democratic President since Lyndon B. Johnson and any Republican President since Ronald Reagan!

And realize that there are still 30 months left in this term, with only 18 months finished, so it is obvious many more of the pledges he made during the 2008 campaign will be fulfilled!

People rightfully can be angry and insecure about the future, but if anyone rationally looks at the record of Obama as against what the GOP promises, or what they fail to make specific that they plan to do, how can anyone not see that real progress has been made in what is, unfortunately, a long road to economic recovery?

Common sense is, hopefully, going to rise to the surface between now and November 2!

Will 2010 Be Another 1934? More Likely Than Imagined Today!

Only twice has the party in the White House won seats in the midterm elections–1934 and 2002!

2002 was right after the attacks of September 11 the year before, and there was still great support for George W. Bush, so the GOP gained a few seats in 2002–four in the House of Representatives and two in the Senate!

In 1934, the Democrats under Franklin D. Roosevelt gained nine seats in the House and nine in the Senate, an amazing reality considering the unemployment rate was 21.7 percent, down from 24.9, but still unbelievably high!

In 1936, when FDR ran for reelection and swept all but Maine and Vermont, the unemployment rate was still 17.0 percent; and in 1940, it was still 14.6 percent!

FDR was constantly attacked by the Republican opposition, and by demagogues on radio, called a socialist and a communist by many! But still, the American people saw that the President was concerned about them, and was doing everything possible to work on the economic mess, while the opposition was only negative and critical, and had no real alternative to what the Democrats offered!

So while there is a 9.5 percent unemployment rate in early July, 2010, it has not risen to the Reagan high of 10.8 in 1982, having peaked at 10.2 percent months ago!

No one is saying that anyone is happy about the economic situation that exists, but don’t be so sure that the Republican and conservative attacks are really going to have the effect that many believe!

The more the GOP candidates for office speak and comment, and the more research that is done by the Democrats on their backgrounds and records, the more the chance grows that the Democrats will have only small losses in Congress, and with some luck, maybe even some slight gains in one or both houses of Congress!

It is not time in July, 2010, to give up on the Democratic party, which has brought about fundamental change under President Obama, similar to what happened under President Roosevelt almost eighty years ago!

The Economy And The Republicans: Do They Have The Answers? NO! :(

President Obama and the Democratic Party are on the defensive, with the economy in such bad shape four months before the midterm elections for Congress, and the governorships in most states!

The unemployment rate is still 9.5 percent; the stock market has seen a new decline since its high in April; consumer spending is still inadequate; housing sales are in a deep decline; the federal deficit is continuing to explode; millions of Americans are losing their unemployment benefits, due to failure to extend it in the Senate before the holiday break; state and local governments are in financial crisis unseen on this level since the Great Depression; and the imbalance of foreign exports as compared to imports is still out of control!

In these circumstances, President Obama is out making speeches and campaigning for endangered Democrats, arguing that the economic stimulus is starting to work, and that economic conditions will start to improve!

But for many voters, their patience and willingness to be calm about their situations is wearing down, and who can blame them?

So the question arises: the Republican party should see major gains in both houses, and the possibility exists that they could win control of both Houses of Congress in November! To do that, they would have to accomplish a net gain of 39 seats in the House, and 10 in the Senate, a tall order, but possible!

Never before, when there has been a party turnover in Congress, has one house switched without the other one also changing! That could happen this fall, however, as to accomplish ten seats gain in the Senate seems extremely unlikely, while the 39 seat gain in the House is more possible!

But let’s even assume that the GOP gains control in one or both Houses of Congress. The question is what do they do with the newly gained power? It is interesting that John Boehner, the Minority Leader in the House, who would become Speaker if his party won the House, has made clear that any plans are still in process of being formulated!

So do the Republicans have a solution or program to deal with the high unemployment rate; the decline in the stock market; the weak consumer spending; the housing crisis; the expanding federal deficit; the millions who will have no income, due to failure to expand unemployment compensation; the loss of services on the state and local level, including police, fire, education, libraries and other areas taken for granted; and the imbalance of foreign trade?

The answer is NO on all counts, as the Republicans have not come up with any alternatives, but obviously do not seem to be concerned with the crisis in the states and local governments, or the growing spread of poverty and homelessness due to long term unemployment!

Instead, they still talk about expanding defense and war spending as if there are no limits; condemn the economic stimulus and have no further plans on how to boost the economy; plan to try to repeal the health care reform before it really gets a chance to succeed; have no desire to restrain Wall Street through regulatory reform; continue to promote the oil industry, and work against energy and environmental reforms; and allow themselves to be hijacked by the Tea Party Movement, which sees cutting of spending and lower taxes as somehow the magical answer to the problems we face! πŸ™

It is clear that many people, not terribly knowledgeable about issues and problems in detail, have an oversimplified view of reality! Only when the GOP would get their chance to show that they have no solutions to the series of problems we face, and only when people remember that the GOP controlled Congress for twelve years (1994-2006) and created most of the problems that led to the present mess, will they come to realize that the Democrats have better ideas and solutions!

But again, nothing happens overnight, and patience is required! Will the American people have that willingness to wait and not expect miracles overnight?

That is the big question of the upcoming midterm Congressional elections of 2010!

The Obama Challenge: Regain His Base To Keep Down Democratic Losses In Congress And The States In 2010!

President Obama faces a major challenge: to keep the base that helped him to win the 2008 Presidential election active and involved, with the goal being to hold down the losses of the Democratic Party in Congress and the states in the 2010 midterm elections!

It is well understood that the party in the White House loses seats in Congress and suffers losses in state election at the time of the midterm elections.

But IF the President’s strategy of investing money in the hope of appealing to the young, minorities, women, and independents works, those losses could be minor, which would both help the President’s agenda in 2011 and 2012, and also jump start his reelection campaign for 2012!

The lack of enthusiasm among these groups is obvious, but the President has accomplished enough in his first 17 months, and hopes for an economic recovery to start kicking in this summer and fall, all designed to stir enthusiasm, and also realization that what has been accomplished could be reversed if there are major losses! πŸ™

The situation politically is fluid enough at this point that the Republican party cannot be sure that they will have the major gains they are hoping for. The battle for the future is very much at hand, and the need for the loyal supporters of the President to get out there, campaign for, and vote for the Obama agenda is essential for future success!

Employment Numbers Improve, But A Long Way To Go :(

The employment situation finally improved somewhat in March, with an increase of 162,000 jobs, but there is still a long way to go!

The unemployment rate stayed stable at 9.7 percent, and the underemployment rate rose slightly to 16.9 percent.

The unemployment rate is worse among minority groups, particularly African Americans, and since so many people have been out of work for more than six months, and a substantial number for a year or more, there is little to celebrate.

This issue will be the crucial one in the upcoming Fall 2010 midterm elections, since people tend to vote their pocketbook above all considerations, even those who have secure jobs but worry about the overall economy and how it might affect the future for them and their children.

So the Democrats and President Obama must focus now on job creation, and hope that the economic turnaround, which seems to have begun, will continue to accelerate over the next six months.

If it does not, then the Democratic party losses this November will be greater, rather than less, and will make Obama’s challenge in the last two years of his first term all the more problematical!

Obama’s Campaign Chairman, David Plouffe, Now Back Working For Obama

David Plouffe, the Obama campaign chairman in the successful 2008 election, is being brought back to coordinate the Democrats’ plans for the midterm elections in both the House of Representatives and Senate, as well as the governorships, as the President realizes that his whole agenda and purpose of being elected President is in danger if the Republican party makes major gains, or god forbid, takes over control of one or both houses of Congress.

There is realization that the President can ill afford to have another “Massachusetts” occur in the fall elections, and therefore it is necessary to centralize control over the election process, and for the President to assert his authority and influence over what happens within the Democratic party in the states and nationally.

In that sense, it is a good thing that this shock in Massachusetts occurred when it did, as it gives the party and the President time to recuperate and plan strategy to advance the purposes that Barack Obama was elected for in 2008.

It seems clear that Obama must go out to the country more in town halls situations and explain what his agenda is, and what he plans to do to bring it about. Early indications are that he is promoting a populist rhetoric to arouse support, stating that he will “fight” as long as he is President, and would not “rest” until his “last breath” in promoting jobs and economic revival for the American people. The rhetoric is lofty, but the important thing is results, and David Plouffe being part of the mechanism in the White House operations should be seen as a positive step!