George Washington

Second Term Presidencies Are Difficult: The Odds Against Success Of Barack Obama!

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When one examines two term Presidencies, it is clear that there is a great likelihood of disappointment and failure as the President becomes a “lame duck”, and particularly, so after the midterm elections, as everyone looks forward to the race for his successor in office.

The following Presidents had difficult second terms:

Thomas Jefferson–with the Chesapeake Affair
James Madison–with the British attack on Washington DC during the War of 1812
Ulysses S. Grant–with the Panic of 1873 and exposure of the Credit Mobilier scandals
Grover Cleveland–with the Panic of 1893 and the Pullman Strike
Woodrow Wilson–with the First World War and the Treaty Of Versailles and his stroke
Franklin D. Roosevelt–with the failure of the Supreme Court “Packing” Plan and Recession Of 1937-1938
Harry Truman–with the Korean War and the Red Scare (McCarthyism)
Richard Nixon–with the Watergate Scandal
Ronald Reagan–with the Iran-Contra Scandal
Bill Clinton–with the Monica Lewinsky Scandal and the Impeachment Trial
George W. Bush–with the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars and Hurricane Katrina and failed attempt to privatize Social Security

The only Presidents to have successful second terms were:

George Washington
James Monroe
Andrew Jackson
Theodore Roosevelt
Dwight D. Eisenhower

Barack Obama hopes to bring about:

Immigration Reform Legislation
Gun Control Legislation
Climate Change Legislation
Stability in International Affairs

The likelihood of success is very doubtful, however, with so much division, conflict, turmoil, and polarization, caused by the Tea Party Movement and the Republican control of the House of Representatives.

At most, Obama might be able to promote changes in the judiciary, particularly on the Supreme Court, if vacancies occur, as is expected, but even there, it is assured there will be major battles over every appointment, and the possibility of filibustering nominees.

This reality is already showing itself with the interference and opposition to Susan Rice to be Secretary of State, before she was ever considered for nomination, and now Chuck Hagel, a possible choice for Secretary of Defense, who despite being a Republican, has already built up major opposition in the party that he represented in the Senate for 12 years from the state of Nebraska!

There seems the likelihood that no matter what Obama does or says, he will have vehement opposition, not only during the first two years, but even in his last two years as a “lame duck”, having less influence each month as the Presidential Election Of 2016 approaches!

Barack Obama Joins A Unique “Fraternity”: Presidents Who Have Won A Second Term In The White House!

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Barack Obama last night joined a unique “fraternity”—Presidents who have won a second term in the White House.

The following Presidents won a second term:

George Washington
Thomas Jefferson
James Madison
James Monroe
Andrew Jackson
Abraham Lincoln
Ulysses Grant
Grover Cleveland (with one term in between where he won popular vote, but lost the electoral vote in 1888)
William McKinley
Woodrow Wilson
Franklin D. Roosevelt (who won 4 terms before 22nd Amendment was added to the Constitution)
Dwight D. Eisenhower
Richard Nixon
Ronald Reagan
Bill Clinton
George W. Bush
Barack Obama

So 17 Presidents, out of 43 who have held the office, have had a second term.

Of course, Lincoln, McKinley and Nixon failed to finish their second term, with the first two assassinated, and Nixon resigning.

This is a select group, a little more than 40 percent of our Presidents, but what it offers is the likelihood that Obama will end up in the top ten of our Presidents if he has any major success in his second term!

Theodore Roosevelt’s 154th Birthday: He Would Mourn What His Republican Party Has Become!

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Today is the 154th Anniversary of President Theodore Roosevelt’s birth.

TR is one of the most acclaimed Presidents, often listed as high as 4th all time, just below Abraham Lincoln, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and George Washington.

TR is certainly regarded as the second greatest Republican President of all time, behind only Lincoln, unless one chooses to believe the lunacy of conservative propagandist Glenn Beck, who constantly denounces TR, and would put Ronald Reagan higher than TR, and who also has reservations about Lincoln, because correspondence between Lincoln and Karl Marx has been uncovered, which makes some right wing nuts think Lincoln “might” have been a “Socialist”, or a “Communist”, or even the word “Progressive”, which is considered the same thing by Beck, Florida Congressman Allen West, and other right wing lunatics!

TR was a “Progressive” who promoted conservation and the environment; promoted the advance of labor rights; believed in regulation of big business; created the Food and Drug Administration to monitor safety of what Americans consume; and believed later in his life, when he ran as the Progressive Party nominee for President in 1912 that there was a need for health care and labor laws and other aspects of a social safety net. This made TR the forerunner of Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry Truman, Dwight D. Eisenhower, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson, Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama in advocating more government, more regulation, more social safety net, and concern about the environment.

None of the above is now believed by the Republican Party of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, who wish to repeal everything TR and his successors of both parties believed in!

So it is clear that TR, certainly not perfect but still exceptional in so many ways, would NOT be a Republican today!

But then Abraham Lincoln would not be a Republican today.

Neither would Dwight D. Eisenhower or even Richard Nixon or Gerald Ford, who were condemning the religious extremism of their party in their later years.

And right now, former Florida Governor Charlie Crist, former Secretary of State Colin Powell, former Rhode Island Senator Lincoln Chafee, and former South Dakota Senator Larry Pressler have endorsed President Barack Obama.

And under the surface, not willing to speak up, but clearly uncomfortable with the GOP of 2012, are many other former Republican Governors, Senators, and Congressmen who feel that their party has been “hijacked” by an evil, selfish, greedy, nasty group of weirdos who wish to take away rights from women, labor, minorities, the disabled, the poor, and the middle class, and are refusing to come out openly and endorse Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.

The party of Theodore Roosevelt and his “progressivism” and reform is long gone, and sadly, may never return!

Charisma And The Presidency: The Interesting Views Of Dean Keith Simonton

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Dr . Dean Keith Simonton, Professor of Psychology at the University of California, Davis, has come up with an intriguing discussion of Charisma and the Presidency.

Having done research over a period of years on this topic, Simonton spoke on National Public Radio, and surprised listeners, including the author, by saying that early Presidents would not be considered to have charisma, as many of them hated speaking before large audiences, had a tendency to be shy and nervous in public gatherings, and would have had problems, therefore, being elected in the modern era. This would include George Washington, John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, and James Madison.

Only Andrew Jackson would be likely to seen as charismatic in a modern sense in the 19th century, meaning even Abraham Lincoln would not fit the image of being charismatic.

Modern Presidents who Simonton would consider charismatic would include Theodore Roosevelt, Franklin D. Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton. So he would consider only SEVEN Presidents as having had charisma by his definition.

Putting Lyndon B. Johnson on the list is quite surprising, and those not put on the list include Woodrow Wilson and Barack Obama, also quite unexpected.

There is much room for thought here, with the definition of charisma itself in dispute, if Lincoln, Wilson and Obama are not judged to make the list, while LBJ is on the list.

Maybe it is because Lincoln, Wilson and Obama are all reserved, introverted types in the minds of psychologists, while Jackson, TR, FDR, JFK, LBJ, Reagan and Clinton are all, clearly, extroverts!

In any case, interesting and fascinating concept to think about and discuss!

The Tension Is Rising On The Vice Presidential Debate: Can Joe Biden “Save” Barack Obama And Himself From Likely Historic Oblivion If They Lose Election?

Ronald 5 Comments

Vice President Joe Biden, who has faced many crises in his life, has always been a man of principle and courage, and he now faces the greatest challenge of his entire political career: resuscitate the Obama-Biden Presidential ticket from possible historic oblivion if they lose the election 27 days from now!

It is sad, but true, that when Presidents lose reelection, they end up in the historical wilderness—not appreciated, to a great extent forgotten, taking generations for any historical recognition.

Ask John Adams, William Howard Taft, Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush–all of whom have not been treated well historically–because they came in between George Washington and Thomas Jefferson; Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson; and Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, in the cases of Adams, Taft and Bush, and before Ronald Reagan in the case of Carter, with Reagan being mythologized in a unrealistic way! Only Adams has finally been recognized, due to the work of David McCullough, as a President worthy of respect and admiration!

It would be a tremendous shame to history if the contributions of Barack Obama were to be relegated to the dustbin of history, particularly if much of what he has accomplished was reversed by a right wing Republican Congress and a President, Mitt Romney, who has no principles or beliefs beyond simply being President!

Special Commemorative Issue Of Newsweek On “The 10 Best American Presidents” (Of The 20th Century And 21st Century)!

Ronald 2 Comments

Newsweek Magazine this week came out with a special commemorative issue, dealing with the American Presidency since Theodore Roosevelt. It is well worth investigating and purchasing by all political junkies and Presidential followers!

Since the issue only deals with “modern” Presidents, Abraham Lincoln, George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson and James K. Polk, usually rated the best Presidents before 1900 in that order, are not discussed.

Instead, there is a look at the 19 Presidents from Theodore Roosevelt to Barack Obama, and it is certain that most Republicans and conservatives will have “problems’ with the discussion and ranking that Newsweek provides!

The rankings of the top ten by historians are as follows:

Franklin D. Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
Lyndon B. Johnson
Dwight D. Eisenhower
Woodrow Wilson
Harry Truman
Bill Clinton
John F. Kennedy
Ronald Reagan
Barack Obama

Note that seven of the top ten are Democrats, and only three Republicans are listed! And only Eisenhower and Reagan would not be considered “liberal” or “progressive” Presidents!

There is plenty of room for debate by all scholars, and most ratings of the modern Presidents would not put Johnson, Eisenhower, Wilson and Clinton so high; and Truman, Kennedy and Reagan so low, and even having Obama in the top ten!

But notice that one does not see “conservative” Presidents Harding, Coolidge and Hoover mentioned, and only Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush are even picked in the “public’ poll, from the other nine Presidents who served since 1900, eliminating Johnson and Wilson altogether!

The “public” list of the top ten is as follows:

Ronald Reagan
Bill Clinton
Franklin D. Roosevelt
John F. Kennedy
Barack Obama
Harry Truman
Theodore Roosevelt
Dwight D. Eisenhower
Jimmy Carter
George H. W. Bush

The knowledge base and expertise of the “public” is obviously far less than the experts, as the ranking is very different!

The “public” poll, disagreeing in many ways with the historical experts, still shows that “conservative” Presidents other than Reagan do not make the list—not only Harding, Coolidge, and Hoover, but also Taft, Nixon, Ford, and the second Bush! And the case could be made that Eisenhower and the first Bush were not really “conservative”!

First Ladies are also surveyed, and specific elections are discussed, and David Frum, a conservative, gives thumbs up to a Democrat, Harry Truman, while Sean Wilentz, a liberal, gives justice to a Republican, George H. W. Bush.

This issue is great food for thought!

The Founding Fathers And Religious Intolerance

Ronald 4 Comments

Having spent the past few days touring Presidential homes of the Founding Fathers in Virginia, it becomes ever more clear how they viewed organized religion.

All of the great Founding Fathers were born of the Christian faith, one sect or another, but all were skeptical of organized religion, being very educated and learned about the history of Christianity, which had included mass murder, bloodshed, violence, and holy wars against Islam, and promotion of antisemitism against Jews.

So George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and James Monroe all were not regular church goers, and in many respects were Deists, having given up on organized religious trappings.

The Adamses, John and John Quincy, also had similar views, as did Benjamin Franklin and Alexander Hamilton.

If they had been here in today’s world, witnessing the bias, prejudice, and hate promoted by SOME Christian groups in the name of Jesus, they would be totally disgusted for sure!

May 8th:67 Years Since V-E Day, And 128th Birthday Of A Courageous President, Harry Truman!

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Today marks two significant events in American history!

It is the 67th anniversary of V-E Day, the end of the war in Europe against Adolf Hitler and Nazi Germany in 1945.

It is also the 128th anniversary of the birth of President Harry Truman, who took over the Presidency suddenly, less than a month before the end of the war in Europe and his birthday, and always stood out, through crisis after crisis, as a man of courage, guts, decisiveness and principle, not much appreciated at the time, or in retirement, but now seen as usually the fifth best President, trailing only Abraham Lincoln, Franklin D. Roosevelt, George Washington, and Theodore Roosevelt.

These are important historical events to commemorate, as we face a campaign in which the nation is more divided than it has ever been since a time of great unity in 1945,

And we have a candidate for President, Barack Obama, who can be compared in courage and decisiveness in foreign policy to President Truman; and with Obama’s opponent, Mitt Romney, easy to compare in so many ways to Truman’s opponent in 1948, Thomas E. Dewey, who came across as plastic, not liked by conservatives in the Republican Party, lacking in dynamism and charisma, and lacking strong principles.

Hopefully, the Dewey defeat in 1948 will be matched by a Romney defeat in 2012!

Obama, Biden, And Romney: Income Tax Time!

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President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden have finished and released information about their federal income tax returns, but Mitt Romney has asked for a delay in filing for six months!

Obama made far less in 2011, due to declining book sales, with his income being about $790,000, his taxes $162,000, and his effective tax rate being 20.5 percent.

Joe Biden, never well to do at any point of his life, reported income of $379,000, taxes of $88,000, and an effective tax rate of about 23 percent.

Both gave substantially higher percentages to charity than Romney, Rick Santorum, or Newt Gingrich reported in 2010.

Romney has what is believed to be $23 million in income from investments, with expected taxes of over $3.2 million, meaning a tax rate of about 15 percent, and in the past only about 10 percent charity, mostly to his own Mormon Church.

By delaying his 2011 tax returns, Romney only makes it a bigger deal closer to the election, and the call for him to release tax returns as extensive as he supplied John McCain in 2008 when he was considered for Vice President, will grow by leaps and bounds, particularly with the fact that his father, George Romney, gave tax information for about 20 years before his run for President in 1968! Why can’t Mitt be as forthcoming as his dad was 44 years ago?

And of course, whoever is the Vice Presidential nominee, will also have his or her taxes, effective tax rate, and charity contributions analyzed and exposed!

All this is not good for the Romney campaign, and it will be difficult to overcome the fact that Romney would be the wealthiest President ever upon taking office, more than George Washington was at the end of his life, with the certainty that someday, Romney will, just by investments, be the first billionaire President ever by the end of his life, if he serves in the Oval Office!

Ranking Presidents Affected By Being A One Term Or Two Term President?

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The game of ranking Presidents is a continuous topic among historians, political scientists, journalists, and ordinary citizens.

In the upcoming June issue of Presidential Studies Quarterly, Professor Curt Nichols, an assistant professor of political science at Baylor University in Texas, comes up with a new theory and premise about how Presidents are ultimately ranked in history.

Nichols used a statistical method known as regression analysis, utilizing Presidential ranking polls conducted by C Span, the Wall Street Journal, and the Siena Research Institute.

Each poll has different factors in judging Presidential leadership, with C Span having ten.

But Nichols says the rating score of Presidents is ultimately raised if the following six factors are considered:

Number of years served
Wartime leadership
If transformation of political landscape occurs in their term
If they are part of the Founding Fathers group
If they are considered “progressive” and pursue “equal justice for all”
If they are assassinated progressives

At the same time, two factors will decrease the rating scores of Presidents:

If the President is impeached, resigns, or has major political scandals during his administration
If they push the nation into political crisis or are unable to lift the country out of a political crisis

Going by this discussion, Nichols believes that IF Barack Obama is defeated for re-election, he will rank only as “average”, as number 22, between William McKinley and George H. W. Bush.

But Nichols also believes that If Barack Obama is re-elected to the Presidency, he could end up as high as number FOUR, behind Abraham Lincoln, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and George Washington, and ahead of Thomas Jefferson!

There is lots of room for debate on the Nichols viewpoint, but it certainly will cause much more discussion and analysis of the men who have been President of the United States.

A few observations here:

If wartime Presidents have an edge, then why is James Madison, William McKinley, George H. W. Bush, and George W. Bush rated quite low on the rankings list generally accepted?

One term Presidencies that stick out as better include James K. Polk and John F. Kennedy.

Two term Presidencies that are seen negatively include James Madison, Ulysses Grant, Grover Cleveland, and George W. Bush.

So whether having a second term really helps raise the stature of a President is still very debatable.

And whether Barack Obama could end up ranked ahead of Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton is something that will be hotly debated into the long term future.