The reapportionment battle in Virginia yesterday resulted in a gerrymandering that will, in theory, provide four more likely Democratic held seats in the US House of Representatives for the future 120th Congress (2027-2029).
This is the latest development in the battle for the lower chamber of Congress, begun by President Donald Trump urging Texas to reapportion, and then further pursued in reaction by Democrats to do the same in California, and then other states also participating in gerrymandering in the midpoint of the decade, instead of the usual such action after the census that takes place across the nation in the decennial reapportionment.
Ironically, the action of Texas may partially backfire and help Democrats gain one or two seats, and of course, there is no certainty as to how elections based on this present gerrymandering activity will play itself out in reality.
On paper, it is pretty much a “wash”, at this point however, with the theoretical results being so far:
Texas 5 Republican gains
California 5 Democratic gains
Virginia 4 Democratic gains
Ohio 2 Republican gains
North Carolina 1 Republican gain
Missouri 1 Republican gain
Utah 1 Democratic gain
Florida (special session next week, potential 1-5 Republican gain
Before Florida, theoretically, Democrats may have gained a one seat edge, but if Florida succeeds in its gerrymandering, Republicans could gain a few seats edge.
Also, still in limbo, but possibly taking gerrymandering action before the elections in November, are New York, Georgia, and Louisiana.
Of course, this is not even taking into consideration that public opinion of Republicans is in rapid decline.
Also, there will be massive turnover, with many retirements, and some resignations to avoid expulsion.
The economic situation and anti Iran War views of vast majorities of Americans is making for a very favorable climate for Democrats, who already have won a vast majority of off year and special elections since the results of the Presidential Election of 2024, now nearly a year and a half ago.