Congressional Retirements And Resignations

Congress Is On Way To Most Turnover In Any Cycle In American History, For The Upcoming 120th Congress (2027-2029)

Ronald 19 Comments

The 119th Congress (2025-2027) is setting a record for turnover, leading to the most massive number of members who will no longer be members in the 120th Congress (2027-2029).

Based on the latest information, but certain to be added to over the next few months, the statistics as of now show the following:

At least, 83 Incumbents will NOT be returning:

70 members of the House of Representatives, including 30 Democrats and 40 Republicans

13 US Senators, including 9 Republicans and 4 Democrats

Retirements, Resignations, Deaths, Seeking Other Offices, and Reelection Primary Losses are the factors that are causing massive turnover, and with more to come after more primaries and Election Day results.

Seven sitting Democrats and three Republicans in the House have lost primaries, and two Republican Senators also lost their primaries, John Cornyn and Bill Cassidy.

Also, 27 House members have given up their seats to run for another office, with 13 losing their bids for another office. Additionally, Senator Tommy Tuberville of Alabama is not running for reelection, but is the Republican nominee for Governor.

Five House members have died during this Congress, as well as Republican Senator Lindsey Graham.

Additionally, there have been seven resignations, mostly due to ethics related charges, but also appointment or election to other offices, as well as the resignation of Marjorie Taylor Greene in opposition to Donald Trump on the Epstein Scandals matter and other breaks with Trump.

It is good that the next Congress will be, assuredly, much younger, with the move against endless service of long term members being a positive development.

One more major moment of challenge of age against youth will be the September 1 Massachusetts primary for the Senate, where Senator Ed Markey, age 80, with 37 years in the House of Representatives and 13 plus years in the US Senate, faces the challenge of Congressman Seth Moulton, who is 47 years old and has served 12 years in the lower chamber.

Markey is a strong progressive with an outstanding record, but it seems to most observers that it is time for a younger generation to take over.

Amazingly, Markey held off former Congressman Joseph Kennedy III six years ago, despite the Kennedy name, and it will be a close watched primary coming up two weeks from now.

Tremendous Turnover Of Membership Coming In Future 120th Congress (2027-2029)

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It is already evident that at least one out of every eight members of Congress will not be returning in 2027, as either they are retiring; have lost renomination; or are running for another office other than the one they now hold.

Eleven US Senators and 59 House members are definitely leaving, with 7 Republicans and 4 Democrats leaving the Senate, and 38 Republicans and 21 Democrats leaving the House of Representatives.

So a total of 45 Republicans and 25 Democrats are leaving Congress.

This does not include those members of Congress who have died or resigned during this two year term.

The aging of Congress is a factor, but also those who desire to move on to another political goal, or are facing the reality of primaries and also the reapportionment of seats by gerrymandering that will eliminate others who had planned to run for reelection.

So the future 120th Congress (2027-2029) will have record turnover, and it is certain, there will be more “new” members of both houses of Congress, than just the present number of 70 members leaving.

Reapportionment Battles Create Massive Struggle For Control Of House Of Representatives In The Future 120th Congress (2027-2029)!

Ronald 13 Comments

The reapportionment battle in Virginia yesterday resulted in a gerrymandering that will, in theory, provide four more likely Democratic held seats in the US House of Representatives for the future 120th Congress (2027-2029).

This is the latest development in the battle for the lower chamber of Congress, begun by President Donald Trump urging Texas to reapportion, and then further pursued in reaction by Democrats to do the same in California, and then other states also participating in gerrymandering in the midpoint of the decade, instead of the usual such action after the census that takes place across the nation in the decennial reapportionment.

Ironically, the action of Texas may partially backfire and help Democrats gain one or two seats, and of course, there is no certainty as to how elections based on this present gerrymandering activity will play itself out in reality.

On paper, it is pretty much a “wash”, at this point however, with the theoretical results being so far:

Texas 5 Republican gains
California 5 Democratic gains
Virginia 4 Democratic gains
Ohio 2 Republican gains
North Carolina 1 Republican gain
Missouri 1 Republican gain
Utah 1 Democratic gain
Florida (special session next week, potential 1-5 Republican gain

Before Florida, theoretically, Democrats may have gained a one seat edge, but if Florida succeeds in its gerrymandering, Republicans could gain a few seats edge.

Also, still in limbo, but possibly taking gerrymandering action before the elections in November, are New York, Georgia, and Louisiana.

Of course, this is not even taking into consideration that public opinion of Republicans is in rapid decline.

Also, there will be massive turnover, with many retirements, and some resignations to avoid expulsion.

The economic situation and anti Iran War views of vast majorities of Americans is making for a very favorable climate for Democrats, who already have won a vast majority of off year and special elections since the results of the Presidential Election of 2024, now nearly a year and a half ago.