Andrew Cuomo

Rand Paul Becomes A Potential Presidential Candidate, And That Is Good For Democrats!

Ronald 4 Comments

Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky has become a celebrity, due to his 13 hour filibuster, postponing consideration of John Brennan, a twenty five year veteran of the Central Intelligence Agency, to become its head, The purpose of the filibuster was to gain a guarantee from the Obama Administration that drones would not be used on American soil against American non combatant citizens.

It has caused the American Civil Liberties Union to back Rand Paul, and some Democrats as well, including Oregon Senator Ron Wyden, as well as several progressive journals and web sites.

But the biggest manifestation has been the split developing in the Republican Party between the Tea Party Movement supporters (such as Mike Lee, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio) and the neocons (John McCain and Lindsey Graham, particularly), and this is great news for the Democratic Party!

Rand Paul is now being talked about more seriously as a potential Republican nominee for President, a thought that makes 2012 candidates for the nomination look as the beginning of a trend of continued disaster that will only become worse in 2016.

Bring on Rand Paul, and watch the GOP split asunder, and watch Rand Paul make Mitt Romney, John McCain, and Bob Dole, past GOP Presidential losers, appear brilliant by comparison! RIck Perry, Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul, Herman Cain were all embarrassing and disastrous, but Rand Paul would be the most disastrous nominee in history!

If Rand Paul is nominated, and even if he divides the Republican Party while losing the nomination, he will only insure a massive popular vote victory by any Democratic nominee for President, particularly Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, but including others, such as Martin O’Malley, Andrew Cuomo, Elizabeth Warren, or Mark Warner!

Age Vs Youth: Will The Republicans And Democrats Be Switching On Their Presidential Nominees In 2016?

Ronald 2 Comments

When one analyzes the two major political parties in the past forty years, it has been a general reality that the Republican Party has run Presidential candidates who tend to be much older than the Democratic Party nominees for President.

Witness Richard Nixon, nine years older than George McGovern in 1972; Gerald Ford eleven years older than Jimmy Carter in 1976; Ronald Reagan thirteen years older than Jimmy Carter in 1980; Reagan seventeen years older than Walter Mondale in 1984; George H. W. Bush eight years older than Michael Dukakis in 1988; Bush twenty two years older than Bill Clinton in 1992; Bob Dole twenty three years older than Clinton in 1996; John McCain twenty five years older than Barack Obama in 2008; and Mitt Romney fourteen years older than Obama in 2012. Only in 2000 and 2004 did we see George W. Bush older than Al Gore by only two years and in 2004 actually younger than John Kerry by three years.

This phenomenon is maybe just a coincidence, but it has often been said that the Democrats go for youth and the Republicans for experience in their Presidential nominees.

Well, if that is the case, it is about to be switched dramatically in 2016 if one assumes that either Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden are the likely front runners for the Democratic Presidential nomination, as Hillary will be 69 in 2016, and Joe will be 74 in 2016. Clinton would be the second oldest first time nominee, behind Ronald Reagan, and Biden would be the oldest first time nominee.

The Republicans are certain to nominate a candidate decades younger, such as Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Nikki Haley, Bobby Jindal, or Ted Cruz, all born in the early 1970s, being therefore mid 40s in 2016. If you consider Chris Christie, Scott Walker, or John Thune, they were born in the 1960s, so would be in the mid 50s. Jeb Bush, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann all were born in the 1950s, so would be in their late 50s or in the 60s. There is no candidate born in the 1940s seriously mentioned, unless one expects Newt Gingrich to try again for the Presidency, being just a year younger than Joe Biden and four years older than Hillary Clinton.

The Democrats have alternative possible candidates in Martin O’Malley and Amy Klobuchar born in the early 1960s, so either would be mid 50s in 2016, but Andrew Cuomo and Mark Warner, born in the mid 1950s would be nearing or at the age of 60 when running in 2016, and Elizabeth Warren, born in 1949, would be 67 in 2016, only about two years younger than Hillary Clinton.

So we are seeing a likely switch from an older to younger Republican nominee, and a younger to an older Democratic nominee, and the difference in years could be massive, as it was in the past forty years in most Presidential elections.

A final thought: In the nine elections between 1972 and 2012 when the GOP nominee was always older than the Democratic nominee, the Republicans won the election four times, and the Democrats five times, so basically, trying to determine whether age or youth are an advantage is clearly a pure guessing game!

The Likelihood Of Joe Biden Succeeding Barack Obama: Less Than 50%

Ronald 2 Comments

With the second term of President Barack Obama beginning, already the news media is speculating on the likelihood of Vice President Joe Biden running for President, and the odds that he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party in 2016, and become our next President.

Biden is certainly encouraging speculation, while saying he has not made up his mind. It is clear that he would like to run, but even he admits that the success or lack of success of the first two years of the second term of Obama, on top of his first term, will have a dramatic effect on his decision to run, and the odds of his having a good chance to become the 45th President of the United States.

Biden has a long record in public office, actually greater in number of years than any President of the United States having come to the Senate at the minimum age of 30, serving six terms (36 years), and now on his second term as Vice President, which, when he completes it, will mean he has served 44 years in national office.

Biden knows Washington DC like few know it. He also knows how to work with the opposition Republican Party in a manner unseen since Lyndon B. Johnson, although Johnson had a much more unorthodox approach to bargaining, and “wheeler dealing”, than the much more proper and mannerly Joe Biden.

But he also has a long list of gaffes, most not harmful, except to those who oppose him, and his liberal views have alienated major groups, as he has worked on issues highly controversial, including gun rights, women’s rights, gay rights, civil rights, foreign policy, Supreme Court nominees, and protection of the Great Society and New Deal programs, including the so called “entitlements”.

And his age, now 70, meaning he would be 74-78 in a first term, and 78-82 in a second term, is not a plus, as we only had one President beyond the age of 70, Ronald Reagan, who seemed to be in decline in his second term of office, finishing it at age 77 and about 49 weeks,

And there is the challenge of Hillary Clinton, whose public opinion ratings are higher than Biden’s, although there is much doubt that she will, ultimately, run for the Presidency. This author and blogger has already theorized, at the beginning of January, that Hillary will decide not to run. Her performance in testifying today at the Benghazi, Libya hearings of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee will be crucial in any plans she might have, after a good rest and recovery period, to run for President in 2016.

And of course, there is the “younger” or “newer” generation of political leaders who have interest in running—including Governors Andrew Cuomo of New York and Martin O’Malley of Maryland, both taking strong leadership on gay marriage and gun regulations in their states; plus others, including Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, and even possibly others, including Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Governor John Hickenlooper of Colorado.

So the likelihood of Joe Biden running, while good, is not, automatically going to give him an edge in a field of many likely challengers. And of course, even if many Republicans like Joe Biden personally, it is certain, and obvious, that they are building up a long list of issues to use against the Vice President, should he end up as the Democratic nominee for President in 2016.

The “New” Generation Of Democrats: Led By Andrew Cuomo Of New York And Martin O’Malley Of Maryland!

Ronald Leave a comment

As the next Presidential term begins in a few days, the focus has been on Vice President Joe Biden and outgoing Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as the two most likely front runners for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2016.

While certainly that is possible, it is also conceivable that a “New Generation” of leadership may be emerging to contest their front runner status, and just might be the alternative to either Biden or Clinton.

Two Northeastern Governors have likely plans to announce for President, and both are working very hard to establish their credentials in similar fields of endeavor.

These two gentlemen are New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley.

Both have become leaders in promoting gay rights and gay marriage in their states, and both have taken leadership in the area of gun regulations in wake of the Sandy Hook Massacre in Connecticut.

Both are very bright, articulate leaders of the future, whether or not they enter the contest for the Presidency, and both have extensive executive experience in public office.

Both will certainly be heard from in the future, and will be discussed regularly over time on this blog! So stay tuned!

The State Of The Democratic Presidential Field As 2012 Ends

Ronald Leave a comment

This author has already, earlier today, made it clear that only four Republicans have any chance to be the Republican nominee in 2016, and, conceivably, to win the next Presidential election, although the odds against them are massive.

What about the Democratic field in a future election where the Democrats have a tremendous edge?

Realize that the likelihood of Barack Obama presiding over a greatly improved economy by 2016 will be a major boon to whoever is the party’s Presidential nominee.

So what is the state of the field?

There are three tiers of candidates, as things now stand.

First Tier—Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, both extremely qualified and experienced, and the best of friends, and if either or both become candidates, they will be the so called “800 pound gorillas” in the race, very hard to overcome. But, of course, if they challenge each other, they could weaken each other and help a third candidate to gain the edge, someone with less experience, and significantly younger, which might be an appealing factor.

Second Tier—Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, Virginia Senator Mark Warner, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren–with all four being strong alternatives, and with one of them possibly able to challenge the two leaders, Clinton and Biden, if they both choose to compete, If neither Clinton nor Biden ends up a candidate, which is conceivable, then these four could be involved in a major competition.

Third Tier—Mayor Cory Booker of Newark, if he becomes Governor or Senator from New Jersey; San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, if he becomes Governor or Senator from Texas; Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick; Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar; New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand; all potential candidates of minority or gender diversity, but all of them less likely to have the opportunity to run, based on others who are competing, and difficulty raising money and supporters against others who are much more described as “heavy weights”, but they all could be possible Vice Presidential running mates.

So this is an early judgment on the Presidential race, and needless to state, there will be much more analysis of these potential candidates as the Presidential race begins in earnest in the second half of 2013, after the first hundred days of the new term! There will be no lack of news emerging on a regular basis, and the fact that this author and others are discussing the race only 30 days after the last Presidential election demonstrates, yet again, that there is no respite from politics, or speculation about the Presidential office and its present and future occupants!

Future Potential Presidential Nomination Conflict In Several States For 2016

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It is never too early to think ahead about the Presidential Election of 2016, and as pundits start debating and arguing about potential candidacies for President, it turns out that several states could witness a battle for the nomination among their own office holders, as witness the following:

New York–Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Governor Andrew Cuomo, and Senator Kirsten Gillibrand–all Democrats

Florida—Former Governor Jeb Bush, Governor Rick Scott, and Senator Marco Rubio–all Republicans.

Virginia—Governor Bob McDonnell, Republican, and Senator Mark Warner, Democrat.

Massachusetts—Governor Deval Patrick and Senator Elizabeth Warren–both Democrats.

New Jersey—Governor Chris Christie, Republican, and Newark Mayor Cory Booker, Democrat,

Wisconsin—Governor Scott Walker and Congressman Paul Ryan–both Republicans.

Texas—Governor Rick Perry and Senator Ted Cruz–both Republicans, and Julian Castro Mayor of San Antonio, Democrat

The question is whether if Hillary Clinton ran for President, would Governor Cuomo or Senator Gillibrand challenge her? But also, if Governor Cuomo ran for President, in the absence of Clinton, would Senator Gillibrand also contend?

Also, if former Governor Jeb Bush ran, would Governor Scott or Senator Rubio do the same? Or it could be put another way–would Jeb Bush run if Senator Rubio announced for President, since he has already taken the first step toward running by visiting Iowa, the first caucus state in 2016?

Also, if either Governor Patrick or Senator Warren ran, would the other run?

Also, if either Governor Perry or Senator Cruz ran, would the other enter the race?

And if either Governor Walker or Congressman Ryan announced, would the other run?

The Virginia, New Jersey and Texas cases, with office holders of both parties possible nominees, is more likely to occur, although the odds of Cory Booker or Julian Castro running in New Jersey and Texas likely will be based on Booker defeating Chris Christie in next year’s gubernatorial race, and Castro running for statewide office and winning, such as for Governor or Senator in 2014.

The Virginia rivalry between Republican Governor Bob McDonnell and Democratic former Governor and now Senator Mark Warner is a more likely reality.

There certainly are a lot of possibilities emerging, with the political “junkies” having a feast of speculation!

Crisis Leadership: FEMA, Mitt Romney, And Partisanship Displayed

Ronald 5 Comments

This disastrous Hurricane Sandy has demonstrated already the difference in leadership of President Barack Obama and his Republican Presidential opponent, Mitt Romney.

Obama has conducted himself fabulously, and has been praised by Republican Governor Chris Christie for his leadership in the crisis. He has demonstrated a steady, calm, cool hand, as he always has in every tough moment of his Presidency, including the operation to eliminate Osama Bin Laden.

Meanwhile, we are reminded that Mitt Romney has advocated getting rid of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and farming its operations back to the state and local governments, and even promoting privatizing its activities. He constantly said this during the Republican primary campaign, as he rushed to please the far right wing of his Republican Party.

Now he is caught in a bind, and has avoided direct comment about the situation caused by Hurricane Sandy.

But he has also, this quickly, shown partisanship, instead of bipartisanship, by calling and consulting with Republican Governors Chris Christie of New Jersey, and Bob Mc’Donnell of Virginia, but NOT calling and consulting with New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, and Delaware Governor Jack Markell, all Democrats.

This is evidence, and not good, that shows that Mitt Romney would NOT be a good crisis President, and would play political games, similar to what George W. Bush did with Hurricane Katrina, and the Democratic Mayor and Democratic Governor of Louisiana, and thus giving a bad image to FEMA, which had been effective before Bush, and is again under Obama!

FEMA can be effective IF we have the right crisis President, and the proper people put into the agency to operate it efficiently. And if there is a need to fund more money for FEMA, by raising taxes, so be it, as we cannot afford to leave the management of a natural or man made disaster to 50 state governors alone, and certainly NOT to private companies, whose only purpose is to maximize profits at the expense of their employees and the general public!

Speculation Seriously Begins On 2016 Presidential Competition

Ronald 2 Comments

Eight weeks away from the Presidential Election of 2012, but with the obvious trend toward Barack Obama emerging, political pundits are starting to speculate on who might compete for the Democratic and Republican Presidential nominations in 2016, when if Barack Obama is reelected in 2012, we will be certain to have a new President.

The field of potential nominees is long in both parties. Among those being discussed are the following:

Democrats

Vice President Joe Biden from Delaware
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton from New York
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo
Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley
Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick
Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer
New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand
Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar
Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill
Virginia Senator Mark Warner
Newark New Jersey Mayor Cory Booker
Massachusetts Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren

Republicans

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush
Florida Senator Marco Rubio
Kentucky Senator Rand Paul
Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown
Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum
Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan
Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal
South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley
Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell
Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker
New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte
South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham
South Dakota Senator John Thune

So there are, theoretically, 12 Democrats and 14 Republicans who can be seen now as possible competitors for the Presidential nominations, but of course, some of these conceivable candidacies are based on election results yet to occur, including whether Senators Claire McCaskill, Scott Brown, and Lindsay Graham are reelected, the first two this year, and Graham in 2014; whether Cory Booker runs for New Jersey Governor and defeats Chris Christie, with the result eliminating one of those two candidacies; whether Elizabeth Warren can defeat Scott Brown, which would eliminate one or the other of those two candidacies; and whether the “old timers”—Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Jeb Bush—decide to run or stay out of the race, leaving the battle for the nominations to the “new generation” of leadership that is emerging in both political parties.

As of now, there is plenty of diversity in the potential race, with the following statistics:

7 women in the race–Hillary Clinton, Amy Klobuchar, Kirsten Gillibrand, Claire McCaskill, Elizabeth Warren for the Democrats, and Nikki Haley and Kelly Ayotte for the Republicans.
2 African Americans in the race—Deval Patrick and Cory Booker for the Democrats.
1 Hispanic-Latino in the race—Marco Rubio for the Republicans.
2 Asian Americans in the race (both of India heritage)—Bobby Jindal and Nikki Haley for the Republicans.

On the Democratic side, there are three potential candidates from New York—Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand; one from New Jersey (Cory Booker); one from Delaware (Joe Biden); one from Maryland (Martin O’Malley); two from Massachusetts (Deval Patrick and Elizabeth Warren)–a total of eight of the 12 potential candidates from the Northeast, with one from the South (Mark Warner of Virginia); two from the Midwest (Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Claire McCaskill of Missouri); and one from the West (Brian Schweitzer of Montana).

On the Republican side, there are four potential candidates from the Northeast—Chris Christie of New Jersey, Scott Brown of Massachusetts, Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, and Rick Santorum from Pennsylvania; seven from the South and border states—Bob McDonnell of Virginia, Nikki Haley and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio of Florida, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, and Rand Paul of Kentucky; and three from the Midwest—Paul Ryan and Scott Walker of Wisconsin and John Thune of South Dakota.

Additionally, there are many Catholics running, startling when one considers that this nation has only had one Catholic President (John F. Kennedy), and one Catholic Vice President (Joe Biden).

Also, the Democrats have four Governors, one Mayor, and seven former or sitting or potential Senators on their list; while the Republicans have six Governors or former Governors, seven Senators, and one Congressman on their list.

Speculation starting already makes the 2016 Presidential race seem ever closer even though it will not begin in earnest until mid to late 2014, and particularly so after the midterm elections of 2014!

Medicaid Expansion And State Governors: Reaction Based On Party Affiliation!

Ronald Leave a comment

The federal government has offered to cover Medicaid expansion for the poor and uninsured in 2014 and after, because otherwise, millions of Americans will have no health care coverage, and that will increase the number of serious illnesses and deaths long term.

But predictably, and sadly, we find most Republican Governors refusing to expand their Medicaid system, including Bob McDonnell of Virginia, Nikki Haley of South Carolina, Rick Scott of Florida, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Rick Perry of Texas, Jan Brewer of Arizona, Paul LePage of Maine, and Scott Walker of Wisconsin, among others.

Meanwhile, most Democratic Governors, including Andrew Cuomo of New York, Deval Patrick of Massachusetts, Dan Malloy of Connecticut, Martin O’Malley of Maryland , Jack Markell of Delaware, Mark Dayton Of Minnesota, Pat Quinn Illinois, and Jerry Brown of California, among others, have made it clear they will expand the Medicaid coverage.

The contrast is startling, as GOP Governors, following in tune with the Republican House and Senate minority members, are in lockstep, making it clear they will not support expanded medical coverage, as part of their plan to wipe out ObamaCare, despite the Supreme Court decision last month!

The fact that the federal government would pay most of the costs, an estimated $931 billion through 2022, with the states only having to pay $73 billion, has had no effect on the Republican Governors!

The Massive Differences Between Democratic Governors And Republican Governors

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As one looks at the political landscape of the state governments, it is clear that Democratic Governors stand out for their leadership in a time of troubles in the nation.

Among the outstanding Democratic Governors are the following:

Dan Malloy of Connecticut
Jack Markell of Delaware
Deval Patrick of Massachusetts
Peter Shumlin of Vermont
Martin O Malley of Maryland
Andrew Cuomo of New York
Jerry Brown of California
Pat Quinn of Illinois
Mark Dayton of Minnesota
John Hickenlooper of Colorado
Brian Schweitzer of Montana
Christine Gregoire of Washington
Neil Abercrombie of Hawaii

Compare their record of leadership to the following Tea Party oriented Republican Governors who have declared war on public workers and favored the wealthy in their states, and have victimized immigrants and promoted suppression of voting rights, and advocated a “war” on women:

Paul LePage of Maine
Chris Christie of New Jersey
Tom Corbett of Pennsylvania
Bob McDonnell of Virginia
Nikki Haley of South Carolina
Rick Scott of Florida
Robert Bentley of Alabama
Phil Bryant of Mississippi
Bobby Jindal of Louisiana
Rick Perry of Texas
John Kasich of Ohio
Rick Snyder of Michigan
Scott Walker of WIsconsin
Mitch Daniels of Indiana
Terry Branstad of Iowa
Sam Brownback of Kansas
Jan Brewer of Arizona

Enough said to make the case of the massive differences between the parties.

And looking to the future, it could well be a Democratic Governor already in office who might be the nominee for President in 2016, with leading possibilities being Martin O’Malley of Maryland and Andrew Cuomo of New York!