Author: Ronald

A Sense Of What Might Happen In The Presidential Election Of 2020

Ronald 16 Comments

This blogger and author has been away for a few days, and has decided to wait until we know the results of the few elections taking place in 2019, before making an educated guess on the Presidential Election Of 2020. With the upset victory of Andy Beshear over Matt Bevin for the Kentucky Governorship, and the gaining of the majority in both houses of the Virginia legislature for the first time in a quarter century, the situation for Democrats looks very promising for 2020.

Understand, without a clear answer as to who the Democratic Presidential nominee will be, it is far from easy to judge how the nation will go a year from now.

But with signs that college educated people, inner suburbs, women, African Americans, Latino Americans, Asian Americans, and young people are alienated from Donald Trump and the Republican Party, here is my estimate of what might happen, subject to change, and a final judgment in late October of 2020.

Let us begin with what states are assured to be in the Democratic camp next year:

New England states—Maine (including the 2nd Congressional district which went to Donald Trump in 2016), Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island–a total of 33 electoral votes

Middle Atlantic states–New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, District of Columbia—a total of 59 electoral votes

Southern states—Virginia—13 electoral votes

Midwest states—Illinois, Minnesota—30 electoral votes

Mountain West states—New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado—20 electoral votes

Pacific Coast states—California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii—78 electoral votes

This group of guaranteed states for the Democrats number 20 plus DC, and a total of 233 electoral votes, 37 short of the number needed to win the Presidency.

Now, states likely to go to the Democrats in order of odds—Arizona (11) and Florida (29)–a total of 40 electoral votes, giving the Democrats 273 electoral votes, 3 more than needed to win the Presidency.

Other states that might go to the Democrats—in order of odds—Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), North Carolina (15), Georgia (16)—a total of 77 additional electoral votes.

This would make for a total of 27 states plus DC, and a grand total of 350 electoral votes.

But also, one more electoral vote is possible, the 2nd Congressional district of Nebraska (Omaha metropolitan area), which voted for Barack Obama in 2008, so a final total of 351 electoral votes, leaving 187 electoral votes for Donald Trump or Mike Pence, or whoever the Republican Presidential nominee might be.

So the Republicans would win 23 states—West Virginia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Texas (all in the South)–Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska except for the 2nd Congressional District, Kansas, Oklahoma in the Midwest and Great Plains—and Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Alaska in the Mountain West—a total of 187 electoral votes!

I welcome commentary on my estimate, and it will be an exciting year to November 3, 2020!

One Year To The Presidential Election Of 2020: My Past Record On The Last Three Presidential Elections

Ronald 37 Comments

Here we are one year before the Presidential Election of 2020, and one of my contributors-commentators on this blog, D, asked awhile back that I come up with an estimate of what might happen in the upcoming Presidential contest.

I wish to point out that in 2008, I predicted the results of the Electoral College within one electoral vote, as I thought the Electoral College would be 364-174, and it ended up as 365-173.

I had not thought that one district in Nebraska, in the Omaha metropolitan area, would give an electoral vote to Barack Obama over John McCain, with Nebraska and Maine being the two states that have permitted split electoral votes, and with Nebraska only doing this in 2008. My article on this election was on November 2, 2008.

On November 4, 2012, my article predicted that Barack Obama would defeat Mitt Romney by an electoral vote of 332-206, and celebrated the precise electoral vote victory in an entry on November 9, 2012.

In 2016, I predicted on November 5, 2016, that Hillary Clinton would win over Donald Trump by a margin of 352-186, and was, like everyone else, totally off base, and still recovering from the shock in 2019.

So I have been accurate twice, and totally wrong the most recent time, and now it is time for projecting what might happen in the year 2020, although the estimate and judgment could be changed dramatically by events not possible to predict.

And since we do not know who the nominees of the major parties will be, it is much harder to project the ultimate result.

However, I will post my prediction, after being away for a few days, in midweek, and I welcome commentary by anyone reading this blog.

The Democratic Presidential Race Thins As Tim Ryan And Beto O’Rourke Withdraw From Race

Ronald 5 Comments

The Democratic Presidential race is thinning as Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan and former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke have withdrawn from the competition in the past week.

Both were considered moderates, and some thought O’Rourke had a real chance to move ahead, but both candidacies floundered without much public support in polls and in fund raising.

Both Ryan and O’Rourke were the rare white men running for the nomination, with the only serious such candidates left being Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Pete Buttigieg.

There is also Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock, and Tom Steyer, but the most competitive white men are Biden, Sanders, and Buttigieg.

The odds of a woman or a minority person being the nominee seems more possible, which is fine, but if that happens, it will mean the Democratic Party has not nominated a white man for President since 2004.

Donald Trump’s War On Children And The American Future For Present Day Greed And Profit, And Based On Pure Racism And Nativism

Ronald 37 Comments

President Donald Trump has committed many crimes for which he should face justice, and incarceration.

But in many ways, the worst crime of all is his war on children and the American future for present day greed and profit, by a man who has zero compassion, empathy and concern for those who are suffering.

Trump claims to be pro life on abortion, but he is a phony, as he has no concern about children, whether born in America or in other nations.

He is willing to separate young children from their parents, something not done by Franklin D. Roosevelt with the internment of Japanese Americans in World War II.

Thousands of vulnerable children from Central America and elsewhere have been basically kidnapped by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), US Customs and Border Protection, and the Department of Homeland Security, and they are suffering mightily in emotional terms, as well as being poorly treated with inadequate food, clothing and housing, and many have been sexually and physically abused.

There are young children taken from their parents at ages under two years old, who now cannot speak or walk, and are permanently disabled, and will never be normal. To blame parents escaping bloodshed, crime, rape, and death in gang ridden Central America for what has happened requires one to have absolutely no concern for human life and dignity, and anyone who has no concern about the crime against humanity being perpetrated by Donald Trump and his despicable criminal collaborators is indeed an evil, uncaring person.

The only real difference from Nazi concentration camps is that so far as we know, no children have been executed, although about seven children have died in the captive conditions provided by the evil doers who collaborate with Donald Trump and his evil supporters who refuse to speak up for morality, ethics, common decency, and equal justice.

Additionally, Trump has worked to pollute the environment; deny health care to millions; and take no steps to cut the dangers to children in schools besieged by gun nuts who have made our education system captive.

Racial and ethnic minorities have been pushed into further poverty and degradation by a President who utters racial and nativist rhetoric on a regular basis.

The ultimate answer should be for Trump and his band of evil doers to be tried under international law in the Hague, being held accountable for his crimes against humanity!

Finally, The Impeachment Of Donald Trump Is Moving Toward Action, With Likelihood Of Four Articles Of Impeachment

Ronald 5 Comments

Finally, the House of Representatives is ready to begin a formal move toward impeachment of President Donald Trump, with the vote to come tomorrow, Thursday.

There are so many crimes and abuses under Donald Trump, but having too many impeachment articles would be counterproductive. Easily, Trump is much more a long list of outrages in office, than a combination of Andrew Johnson, Richard Nixon, and Bill Clinton combined.

It seems clear that four counts would make the best sense:

Obstruction of Justice

Abuse of Power

Contempt of Congress

Violation of the Emoluments Clause

It is likely that the articles of impeachment will occur either before Thanksgiving or in early December, with the Senate trial taking place in January 2020, hopefully resolved before the Iowa Caucuses, the New Hampshire Primary, the South Carolina Primary. and the Nevada Caucuses.

Certainly, by the time of Super Tuesday on March 3, 2020, when 14 states vote, the issue should be resolved, with little chance of gaining a two thirds vote to convict and remove Trump, but it should not be regarded as a long shot. There will be some Republican Senators voting to remove, and with more evidence coming out, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that more Republicans than a few could vote to convict, although to accomplish 20 or more Republicans out of the 53 in the Senate seems unlikely.

The Division Of The Suburbs Politically: Inner Vs. Outer

Ronald 1 Comment

Indications are that suburbia, traditionally Republican for decades, is changing.

Political observers see two areas of suburbia–the inner suburbs near major urban areas, and the outer suburbs, much further away and closer to rural areas.

The inner suburbs have become more racially and ethnically diverse, and are tending toward the Democratic Party, as in California’s Orange County as just one example in the Midterm Congressional Elections of 2018.

Meanwhile, the outer suburbs are seemingly very loyal to the Republican Party, since there is far less diversity further away from the cities, and reflect the conservative values common to rural America.

The fact that the inner suburbs are tending Democratic should be a good sign for the party in the Presidential Election of 2020, but whether what happened in 2018 is a trend, or an exception, is hard to assess at this point.

14 Weeks Until First Vote In Iowa Caucuses

Ronald 4 Comments

As the House of Representatives is working on its impeachment inquiry involving President Donald Trump, the political calendar is starting to close in on many Democratic Presidential contenders.

It is now only 14 weeks until the first Americans vote on 2020, with the Iowa Caucuses taking place on Monday, February 3.

Iowa is not truly decisive on who wins the nomination and the Presidency in either major political party, as the only times that Iowa was a sign of the future was when an incumbent President was not on the ballot, and even then, not very often.

Democratic Party

Walter Mondale in 1984

Al Gore in 2000

John Kerry in 2004

Barack Obama in 2008

Hillary Clinton in 2016

George McGovern in 1972, Jimmy Carter in 1976, Michael Dukakis in 1988, and Bill Clinton in 1992 failed to win Iowa.

Republican Party

Gerald Ford in 1976

Bob Dole in 1996

George W. Bush in 2000

Ronald Reagan in 1980, George H. W. Bush in 1988, John McCain in 2008, Mitt Romney in 2012, and Donald Trump in 2016 failed to win Iowa.

So only George W. Bush in 2000 and Barack Obama in 2008 won Iowa and went on to win the Presidency in the fall of those years.

So do not expect that who wins Iowa will automatically be the nominee for the Democrats in November 2020.

Since 1972, Iowa has been accurate on the Democratic nominee 43 percent of the time, and 50 percent accurate on the Republican nominee.

Iowa is not representative of the nation in its population mix, but it gives a leg up to a few of the candidates, while dashing the hopes of so many others.

Death Of ISIS Leader A Momentary Positive For Donald Trump, But It Will Not Last

Ronald 22 Comments

The announcement this morning of the death of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi by Special Forces in Syria is a momentary positive for Donald Trump, as was the case with the death of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan on May 2, 2011 during the administration of Barack Obama.

It will certainly go down as an accomplishment that Trump can lay claim to, as Obama did with Osama bin Laden.

But it does not mean that America is safely isolated from the Middle East quagmire, and since so many ISIS fighters were released from prison as a result of the Turkish assault in Syria against Kurds in the past two weeks, one can be sadly assured that there will be a revival of ISIS under different leadership, ready to commit terrorist acts and torture people as they did from 2014 onward.

The likelihood of ISIS retribution for the death of their leader is certain, and will affect European nations but also the United States, making the idea of foreign travel by Americans not a good idea short term, and possibly, long term.

We can rejoice and congratulate Donald Trump on this, but the road ahead in international affairs in the year up to the Presidential Election of 2020 is impossible to predict, as to whether it will benefit Trump, or his Democratic opposition, all based on events we cannot forecast.

Donald Trump, The Miserable And Wretched Human Being: Very UnPresidential!

Ronald 24 Comments

President Donald Trump is demonstrating every day his true character.

A self centered, selfish person who only thinks and cares about himself;

has no compassion, empathy, concern about the plight of others;

worships money above all;

lies incessantly;

is totally ignorant of all fields of knowledge while claiming to be an expert on all;

constantly portrays himself as a victim, despite the fact that he was born to wealth and has never known what it is to struggle in life;

spends much of his waking time insulting others with all kinds of names, including his few Republican critics being called “human scum” this week;

gives not any concern to the harm he has done to millions of Americans and also people from other nations by his utterances and actions;

and sees others as dispensable when they are no longer useful to his greed and ambitions.

Donald Trump is the most unPresidential President we have ever had, far surpassing even Andrew Johnson, Richard Nixon, and Andrew Jackson in that regard. He is not someone any sane person would truly want as a friend.

He is a miserable human being who will be reviled in history by all sensible people!

Republican Senators Who Do Not Support Lindsey Graham Resolution Condemning House Impeachment Inquiry

Ronald 6 Comments

Mitt Romney of Utah

Susan Collins of Maine

Lisa Murkowski of Alaska

Lamar Alexander of Tennessee

Mike Enzi of Wyoming

Cory Gardner of Colorado

Johnny Isakson of Georgia

This means that Lindsey Graham is not able to gain support from the entire Republican Senate caucus, and is a hint of the likelihood that such a resolution to condemn the House of Representatives Impeachment Inquiry will fail to gain a majority of the US Senate.

It could be that a vote for conviction in an impeachment trial might be 54-46, not enough to remove Donald Trump, but a major slap in the face, nevertheless to the 45th President.

And it could be more than seven Republican Senators could end up voting against Trump, although the likelihood of reaching the threshold of 20 Republicans joining with all 47 Democrats to remove Donald Trump is very much a long shot.