One Year To The Presidential Election Of 2020: My Past Record On The Last Three Presidential Elections

Here we are one year before the Presidential Election of 2020, and one of my contributors-commentators on this blog, D, asked awhile back that I come up with an estimate of what might happen in the upcoming Presidential contest.

I wish to point out that in 2008, I predicted the results of the Electoral College within one electoral vote, as I thought the Electoral College would be 364-174, and it ended up as 365-173.

I had not thought that one district in Nebraska, in the Omaha metropolitan area, would give an electoral vote to Barack Obama over John McCain, with Nebraska and Maine being the two states that have permitted split electoral votes, and with Nebraska only doing this in 2008. My article on this election was on November 2, 2008.

On November 4, 2012, my article predicted that Barack Obama would defeat Mitt Romney by an electoral vote of 332-206, and celebrated the precise electoral vote victory in an entry on November 9, 2012.

In 2016, I predicted on November 5, 2016, that Hillary Clinton would win over Donald Trump by a margin of 352-186, and was, like everyone else, totally off base, and still recovering from the shock in 2019.

So I have been accurate twice, and totally wrong the most recent time, and now it is time for projecting what might happen in the year 2020, although the estimate and judgment could be changed dramatically by events not possible to predict.

And since we do not know who the nominees of the major parties will be, it is much harder to project the ultimate result.

However, I will post my prediction, after being away for a few days, in midweek, and I welcome commentary by anyone reading this blog.

37 comments on “One Year To The Presidential Election Of 2020: My Past Record On The Last Three Presidential Elections

  1. Jeffrey Moebus November 2, 2019 8:14 am

    Well, like i posted elsewhere:

    FOUR OMINOUS REASONS TRUMP WILL WIN IN 2020: Moody’s forecast: Trump will win 2020 election in landslide, by Jerry Kroth []

    October 30, 2019 “Information Clearing House” – Moodys Analytics correctly predicted every Presidential winner since 1980, and two days ago, smack in the middle of the latest impeachment kerfuffle, they predicted Trump would win in 2020 by an electoral landslide

  2. Former Republican November 2, 2019 8:14 pm

    Our family has vowed that, if Dumb Dumb Trump gets re-elected, we will stop watching the news until he’s gone.

  3. D November 3, 2019 12:27 am


    I look forward to your upcoming blog topic in which you let us know what you are sensing may electorally happen in 2020.

  4. Jeffrey Moebus November 3, 2019 10:13 am

    [i’m curious: Will You consider this in Your prognostication piece?]


    An enduring U.S. expansion puts President Donald Trump on course to win re-election in 2020, according to economic models with a track record of predicting who wins the White House.

    The forecasts from Yale University professor Ray Fair, Oxford Economics Ltd. and Moody’s Analytics Inc. are based on Trump being boosted at the ballot box by steady economic growth, an historically tight labor market and limited inflation.

    Such an outlook justifies Trump’s push to harness what he’s called the “greatest” economy to return him to power a year from Sunday. It challenges some opinion polls which show his disapproval rating hovering near 54% amid an impeachment inquiry and polarized politics.

    “The election is Trump’s to lose,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “Trump wins if the economy and his approval rating are about the same a year from now as today, and turnout is typical. But if the economy stumbles, his popularity flags or Democrat turnout is big, the Democrats win.”

    The economy expanded at a 1.9% pace in the third quarter and unemployment is close to its lowest in a half-century, government data showed last week. While manufacturing has been hurt by the U.S.-China trade war, consumers continue to spend in a sign voters are still confident about the economy. A Bloomberg Economics model sees the chances of an election-year recession at just 27%.

    Continued at: .

  5. Jeffrey Moebus November 3, 2019 10:23 am

    What is unsettling about the economy being driven by consumer spending is that a great deal of that spending is being done via credit cards and other forms of debt.

    One questions how sustainable that is; much as one questions how sustainable federal, state, and local debt-based financing of expenditures can go on.

    Politicians and candidates to be politicians don’t like to talk about that any more than consumers like to talk about their debt.

    Incidentally, it is now official: The sovereign, national debt of the US of A passed $23 trillion this weekend. And thanks to the Trump-Pelosi-Shumer debt ceiling limit deal cut in August, that debt promises to grow by at least $1 trillion/year for the foreseeable future with the planned deficits.[ []

    And the words “debt” and “deficit” have not been spoken once in the four Democratic so-called “debates.”

    And Ms Warren wants to spend $30 trillion for her Health Care For All scam.

  6. Former Republican November 4, 2019 12:11 pm

    Polling from the six closest states that went Republican in 2016—which will be crucial in deciding if President Trump wins a second term—shows Trump narrowly ahead of Elizabeth Warren but trailing Joe Biden. A new set of surveys from The New York Times and Siena College focussed on the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina. Across those states, Trump trails Biden by an average of two points among registered voters, but leads Warren by two points. Both figures are well within the margin of error in such polling. Meanwhile, the numbers show that Bernie Sanders is deadlocked with the president among registered voters, but trailing among likely voters. The poll won’t ease concerns among some Democrats that Warren’s ideology and gender could hold her back if she’s the 2020 candidate. The Times reports that Democrats would probably need to win at least three of these six states to win the presidency.

  7. Rustbelt Democrat November 4, 2019 12:14 pm

    If you don’t want 4 more years of the Orange Nightmare, it sounds like Biden is the best choice.

  8. Southern Liberal November 4, 2019 12:49 pm

    According to the swing state poll, Biden leads in 4, Sanders leads in 3. Agree that they’re our best chances for the moment.

  9. Jeffrey Moebus November 4, 2019 2:10 pm

    So Uncle Joe is Da Man, eh?

    Back in 2016, the best the Democrats could come up with was Clinton; so it was Trump v Clinton. For 2020, it shapes up ~ this week, at least ~ that the best available is Biden; so it will be Trump v Biden.

    Trump v Clinton…. ; Trump v Biden… . What’s the difference? Other than that one is a corporatist liberal male, and the other a CL female, how can the voters distinguish between the two?

    And before everybody gets all excited about Biden taking the swing States, he would be well-advised to come completely clean on his and his son’s dealings with the Ukraine. If it’s good enough to threaten Trump with impeachment, it would serve very nicely to put Biden on the total defensive thruout the campaign and, should he get elected, from Day 1 of his Presidency. More BS to keep the public’s attention diverted away from how screwed up things really are in SwampLand, regardless of who is in charge of which end of Pennsylvania Avenue.

    And finally, do You really think that Millennials and Gen Zs, etc, are really ready for another bloody, bleeping Baby Boomer? Given that we BBs have been running DC for about 25 years or so, don’t You think that maybe the next Generations are ready for a break from our, at times merely incompetent, and at others, overtly criminal behavior running the government of this nation?

    Moody’s Analytica [who have nailed every Presidential election winner since 1980] puts Trump as a landslide winner in 2020. If Biden, Sanders, and Warren [all long-term SwampLanders] are the best the Democrats can come up with, it looks Moody’s steak will run to eleven.

  10. Princess Leia November 4, 2019 4:52 pm

    If Trump gets re-elected, I will have lost faith in America.

  11. Rational Lefty November 4, 2019 4:53 pm

    Waaaaay too early to get twisted about any one poll. Several other polls show a completely different picture and the variability both within and between polls is very high. Let’s wait and see what’s up after some primaries.

  12. Pragmatic Progressive November 4, 2019 5:00 pm

    Agreed. Things are just getting started. We have a long way to go. I wouldn’t take this poll too seriously.

  13. Former Republican November 5, 2019 5:44 pm

    Kentucky and Mississippi are deciding on Governors. Virginia is deciding state legislature.

  14. Southern Liberal November 5, 2019 9:24 pm

    Wow! Democrats won the Governorship in Kentucky!

  15. Former Republican November 5, 2019 9:24 pm

    Suck on that, Moscow Mitch!

  16. Princess Leia November 5, 2019 9:37 pm

    Virginia Dems flipped the state Senate!

  17. Pragmatic Progressive November 5, 2019 10:15 pm

    As the Vox article says, these wins are evidence that Democrats are fired up and organized even on the state level.

  18. Southern Liberal November 5, 2019 10:18 pm

    In Virginia, with Democrats also in charge of the governorship, they’ll finally have the chance to enact progressive priorities that the GOP has stymied for years, including expanding voting rights, enacting common-sense gun safety reforms, raising the minimum wage, passing protections for LGBTQ people, ratifying the Equal Rights Amendment, and much, much more.

  19. Southern Liberal November 5, 2019 10:21 pm

    This makes me somewhat more optimistic about 2020.

  20. D November 6, 2019 4:37 am

    The 2019 general election in Virginia does not surprise me.

    In the United States presidential election of 2008, which was a Democratic pickup for Barack Obama, Virginia was a pickup state and carried Democratic first time since 1964. The ten presidential election cycles of 1968 to 2004—which included three wins for the Democrats with Jimmy Carter (1976) and Bill Clinton (1992, 1996)—saw the state carry Republican each time.

    With the exception of 2013, the gubernatorial elections in Virginia have been won by the White House opposition party since 1977.

    In 2016, a presidential election which flipped from Democratic to Republican, Virginia was retained by the Democrats. While Virginia was Obama’s No. 24 best state (of a carried 28 and 26 states), in both 2008 and 2012, it was Hillary Clinton’s No. 15 (of a carried 20 states). That is important to note because, for Republican pickup winner Donald Trump, Virginia was his No. 36 best state. Since 1992, the range of carried states have numbered between 26 and 32 with the average of 29—suggesting Trump, who carried 30 states, and even if he goes on to win re-election, will not experience a sufficient increase in his 2016-to-2020 popular-vote margin to be able to flip and carry Virginia.

    In the 2018 midterm elections, in which the U.S. House flipped from Republican to Democratic, the Democrats won the U.S. Popular Vote by +8.56. (It was Republican 44.85% vs. Democratic 53.41%.) The U.S. House in Virginia was a margin of Democratic +13.84. (It was Republican 42.52% vs. Democratic 56.36%.) Virginia’s U.S. House seats switched from a 2016 outcome of Republican 7 vs, Democratic 4 to a 2018 outcome of Republican 4 vs. Democratic 7.

    When identifying companion states—a pair here and there which vote alike over a long period—Virginia is close with Colorado. In presidential elections, they have carried the same, with exception of 1992, since 1948. In 2016, Colorado was Hillary Clinton’s No. 16 best state. That made it Donald Trump’s No. 35. In 2008 and 2012, both states were bellwether states with respect for their margins and their impact on those particular elections. (Colorado was the tipping point state in both 2008 and 2012—giving Barack Obama his 278th and 272nd electoral votes. It was his No. 23 best state. Carriage of 23 states is pretty much the estimate of where a prevailing Democrat will reach 270 electoral votes.) The two states, having realigned, are now aligned to the Democrats.

  21. Rustbelt Democrat November 6, 2019 12:16 pm

    I’m of the opinion that Moody’s is either overestimating Trump or underestimating the Dems.

  22. D November 7, 2019 12:59 pm

    Former Republican,

    Since you watched the video, please be more specific.

  23. Princess Leia November 7, 2019 4:44 pm

    I agree with what Martin Longman said about “support labor, going after market consolidation, monopolies and regional inequities”, but the question remains: How do you keep the fight on monopolies and labor unions when Republicans insist on demonizing African Americans, Hispanics, gay people?

  24. Pragmatic Progressive November 7, 2019 4:45 pm

    The Democratic nominee will have to demonstrate that they can walk and chew gum at the same time. When women, people of color, and our LGBT brothers and sisters come under attack, they can’t back down. But they also can’t lose the message of the issues that matter to all of us. While he didn’t win the Florida governor’s race, Andrew Gillum was able to capture the Democratic message amazingly well in this one minute ad.

    That is the kind of message that will resonate in both the Rust Belt and the Sun Belt. For those who are offended by the inclusion of women and people of color, getting their votes isn’t possible anyway.

  25. Jeffrey Moebus November 7, 2019 4:58 pm

    Princess Leia asked: “How do you keep the fight on monopolies and labor unions when Republicans insist on demonizing African Americans, Hispanics, gay people?”

    What does fighting against monopolies and for labor unions have to do with African Americans, Hispanics, and/or gay people?

    Or is that one of those stupid questions that nobody deigns answer?

  26. Pragmatic Progressive November 7, 2019 5:11 pm

    The video for Gillum’s excellent ad didn’t come up on the screen for all to see, so here’s the link by itself:

  27. Rational Lefty November 7, 2019 5:31 pm

    Jennifer Rubin nailed it – broken into two parts –

    Trump and his apologists have repulsed suburbanites. They are embarrassed to be associated with a party that trounces on middle-class virtues (civility, fairness, sacrifice, etc.) and insults their intelligence

  28. D November 7, 2019 5:39 pm

    Jeffrey Moebus,

    Will you be posting a comment on Ronald’s blog topic, “A Sense of What Might Happen in the Presidential Election of 2020” (Wednesday, November 6, 2019 @

  29. Jeffrey Moebus November 7, 2019 6:10 pm

    D: Are You looking for a response to Doc’s rant, or to Your own responses and predictions?

    Doc wrote: “Understand, without a clear answer as to who the Democratic Presidential nominee will be, it is far from easy to judge how the nation will go a year from now.”

    Which is exactly why i didn’t pay much attention to either his or Your prognostications. i do, however, take Moody’s predictions seriously, if for no other reason than their track record [as i stated earller to this thread].

    At this point, D ~ given the current state of the reality tv show that American politics, governance, and its government have devolvd into, i have serious doubts that there will even BE an election in 2020. And even more doubts that there will be an inauguration on 20jan21, regardless of who ~ but particularly if Trump ~ loses.

    And finally, i also have doubts that the United States of America will still be around to celebrate its 250th Birthday on July 4, 2026, regardless of who wins and loses in 2020.

  30. Rational Lefty November 7, 2019 6:19 pm

    Bloomberg is planning to join the 2020 Democratic field. Guess he’s scared of Bernie or Elizabeth winning.

  31. Former Republican November 7, 2019 7:49 pm

    Senate Republicans discover their silver impeachment bullet is backfiring

    It wasn’t supposed to be like this. After House Democrats opened an impeachment inquiry, Republicans were supposed to be able to flail around wildly hurling words like “witch hunt” and “socialist” and “Soviet,” at which point frenzied GOP voters would rush to the polls and deliver whopping, stinging electoral defeats to Democrats. That was the plan—and even the conventional wisdom—until Tuesday, when Democrats bested Republicans in yet another off-year election as we move toward the all-important 2020 presidential contest.

    Actually, voters did go to the polls in droves but, if there was a motivating factor, it seemed more about sending Trump the signal that many, many Americans are d— sick and tired of watching him defile our republic. There is simply no other way to read the results in Virginia, where turnout surged from 29% in 2015 to nearly 40% four years later and delivered control of both legislative chambers to Democrats. Some observers wondered whether scandals that have plagued Democrats in Virginia’s executive branch might offset some of the anti-Trump fervor. Nope. The issues were also clearly on the side of Democratic candidates in Virginia, but the notable spike in turnout seems to be as much a product of anti-Trump rage voting as anything else.

    And in Kentucky, no amount of Republican Gov. Matt Bevin railing against impeachment and Trump begging voters to protect his reputation could save a candidate who Kentuckians despise, though Bevin has not conceded defeat to Democrat Andy Beshear yet. Turnout also surged in Kentucky to 42%, 11 points above what the secretary of state had projected. And while it’s true that Bevin was a uniquely unpopular governor (i.e. basically, the worst), it’s also true that Trump’s appeal to anti-impeachment resentment failed to buoy Bevin in a state that Trump won by nearly 30 points three years earlier.

    What Senate Republicans are most unnerved by—and rightly so—was their trouncing in the suburbs in basically every state, including not just Kentucky and Virginia, but also Pennsylvania and Mississippi. But Tuesday wasn’t just a one-hit wonder, the suburbs have turned on Republicans almost entirely over the course of a mere three years since Trump was elected.

    “We’ve seen this now in ’17, in ’18 and in ’19, so there’s no anomaly here,” noted John Weaver, a longtime GOP strategist who advised the late Sen. John McCain. “We’ve seen Republican suburbs in four or five years go from plus-20 Republican to plus-25 or 30 for the Democrats. They are very blue. The exurbs are turning blue as well.”

    The prescription? “The senators running in swing states will need to run well-ahead of the president in the suburbs to win reelection,” Republican pollster Whit Ayres told The Hill.

    In other words, not only is Trump not Senate Republicans’ silver bullet; impeachment or no impeachment, he’s the bullet they have to dodge in order to prevail in 2020.

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