Donald Trump Trying To Suppress The Right To Vote, Unprecedented Since The Voting Rights Act Of 1965

Donald Trump knows he will lose the upcoming Presidential Election of 2020 massively, and is trying to stop people from voting, endangering them with his demand that they must vote in person, not by mail in voting, even though many Americans already use that method, including Donald Trump himself!

He is threatening lawsuits and denial of financial support to Michigan and Nevada, because he knows they are states he must win, but he will not win either, no matter what he does to suppress the vote.

Voting is the most basic right, and this is the first President openly trying to interfere with the right to vote, guaranteed under Amendments 15, 19 and 26, along with the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

Right now, Joe Biden leads massively among women, senior citizens, and people of color, and is ahead in some polls by 11 points.

The majority think Biden would do better on health care and the CoronaVirus Pandemic.

Every day, by his refusal to deal with the loss of life, and claiming he has made no mistakes, Donald Trump is just solidifying his sound defeat in November!

3 comments on “Donald Trump Trying To Suppress The Right To Vote, Unprecedented Since The Voting Rights Act Of 1965

  1. D May 21, 2020 11:21 pm

    It is nowadays looking like Election 2000 will become a wave election—away from the incumbent White House party, the Republican Party, and toward the opposition party, the Democratic Party.

    I ask myself, “Are there any states, with recent enough polls, appearing to be shifting their 2016-to-2020 margins in the direction of Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump?” (That would indicate potential re-election for Trump. Historically, incumbents who get re-elected to a second term gain with their margins in the U.S. Popular Vote and with their electoral-vote scores.)

    I am not seeing or reading any reports suggesting that this is feasible for 2020 Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump.

    I have recently come across poll reports for some particular Core Republican states which are shifting away from Republican Trump.

    Public Policy Polling reports Kentucky is polling for Trump by +16. He carried the state, in 2016, by an astonishing +29.84 percentage points. The state’s senior U.S. senator, and the majority leader, Mitch McConnell, is polling by +3. He was previously re-elected, in the midterm elections of 2014, as Republicans flipped the U.S. Senate, by the margin +15.47.

    “East Tennessee State” reports Tennessee is polling for Trump by +17. He carried the state, in 2016, by +26.00. This is nowadays the best state, for the Republicans, among those which are allocated with double-digit electoral votes.

    (Republicans usually carry Kentucky above Tennessee. Their margins are typically close to each other. But, these numbers remind me of 2008 John McCain, who carried Kentucky by +16.22 and Tennessee by +15.06, in an election cycle with the incumbent party the Republicans and the overall result a Democratic pickup of the presidency. Kentucky and Tennessee are companion states. Just like their geographical locations, their margins can be next door to each other.)

    “Deseret News”/Hinckley Institute of Politics reports Utah is polling for Trump by +19. It carried for Trump, in 2018, by +17.88. That indicates slight improvement. But, Election 2016 was unusual. Evan McMullin received 21.31 percent of the statewide vote in Utah. Had he not been in the race, Trump would have probably carried Utah by at least +30. This used to be the best state for Republicans. And I would like to see it trend toward the Democrats. (It was their No. 34 in 2016.) Nowadays, the best state for Republicans is Wyoming. Utah carried in 2012 for Mitt Romney by an incredible +47.88. (It was Romney’s best state.) In the previous election which flipped the White House from Republican to Democratic—and that was 2008—Utah carried for John McCain by +27.98. If Trump is to end up winning re-election, he should be up in Utah with a margin north of +25 and preferably, for his sake, +30.

    I also looked at some states not carried in 2016 by Trump.

    “Rutgers”/Eagleton reports New Jersey is polling against Trump by –23. His margin in 2016, as it carried for Hillary Clinton, was –13.99.

    UMassLowell reports Massachusetts is polling against Trump by –28. Emerson reports the state is polling against Trump by –34. His margin in 2016, as it carried for Hillary Clinton, was –27.20.

    Roanoke College reports Virginia is polling against Trump by –12. His margin in 2016, as it carried for Hillary Clinton, was –5.32.

    Global Strategy Group reports Colorado is polling against Trump by –13. His margin in 2016, as it carried for Hillary Clinton, was –4.91.

    (Virginia and Colorado are companion states. It wouldn’t surprise me if, as they were in 2016, right next door to each other for where their margins come in and for where they rank here in 2020. I suspect the two states will give the 2020 Democrats an estimated +6 to +7 above their national margin. So, this +12 and +13 is suggestive of a level of a Democratic U.S. Popular Vote margin of +6.)

    In states closest to Trump’s reach, from 2016, meaning he carried 30 states but came close with some others, none stands out more than his No. 31 best, New Hampshire. St. Anselm’s recent poll has Trump down by –8. His margin in 2016, as it carried for Hillary Clinton, was –0.36. (I want to see polls for Minnesota, Trump’s No. 32, a margin of –1.51, as well as statewide Maine, his No. 34, a margin of –2.96.)

    When it comes to the Key Bellwether States of 2020—the Rust Belt trio Wisconsin (the tipping-point state of 2016), Pennsylvania, and Michigan—Trump is down in all three. His 2016 Republican pickups of those states were +0.76, +0.72, and +0.22. (They were his original 270th, 290th, and 306th electoral votes.) I think they are 100-percent likely to vote again with the winner of Election 2020. Not all three are routinely getting updated with polling as frequently as I would like to see. But, Michigan, the bluest of the three, is polling in the 8- to 10-point range for the Democrats and Joe Biden. I think Michigan will end up about +2 points more Democratic than the party’s margin in the U.S. Popular Vote. That, when listing their ranks, Michigan will get followed by Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. That level of +8 to +10, for Michigan, suggests a U.S. Popular Vote margin that is between Democratic +6 to +8.

    Florida—the best bellwether state longterm (within five points in its margins relative the U.S. Popular Vote since its unbroken streak of carrying for winners dates back to 1996)—is polling for Joe Biden by nearly +5 points. National polling indicating 65+ voters are shifting their 2016-to-2020 support away from Republican Trump and in the direction of the Democrats and Biden makes Florida the first state to immediately spring to mind. And I also rate it 100-percent likely to vote with the winner. Its 2016 margin, as a Republican pickup for Trump, was +1.19. That made it 0.43 redder than Wisconsin, 0.47 redder than Pennsylvania, and 0.97 redder than Michigan. It is 100-percent likely all four vote the same and for the winner.

    When it comes to Emerging States—ones trending from Republican to Democratic—standing out right away is Arizona. Every poll I lately come across shows Donald Trump failing to hold it. Some are close to –10 points. (Could Arizona become bluer than, say, Michigan? That is another discussion. 2020 Arizona is starting to feel like 2008 Colorado. Again—that is another discussion.) Trump won Arizona, in 2016, by +3.50. And in the state’s special U.S. Senate election, for the seat last won in 2016 by John McCain (with a margin of +12.96), Republican interim U.S. senator Martha McSally is down to Democratic challenger Mark Kelly by around –10 points. Lots of election results, in states with a U.S. Senate race to go along with the one for U.S. President, deliver same-party carriage with margins five points or less in spread. So, to say that Mark Kelly leads by, say, +9 makes it highly likely Joe Biden, in also winning a Democratic pickup of Arizona, would perform within five points. I would actually guess within 3 points. Kelly would be higher than Biden.

    Georgia intrigues me because I think it will be the tipping-point state for producing the seat which would flip the U.S. Senate to the Democrats. I am looking first at the special, with Republican interim U.S. senator Kelly Loeffler. Her scandal is with her stock selloff prior to COVID–19 having impacted the stock market. I think the further helps Democratic to position unseating Loeffler. I think her seat would be the 51st, the tipping-point seat, in a Democratic majority-control pickup of the U.S. Senate. It would also be more likelier than not that Georgia’s regularly-scheduled election, that of the seat of David Perdue, carries for the same political party which wins the special. Perdue won, in 2014, by +7.68 while Republicans won the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. Senate, by +6.66. He lost Henry County (McDonough), in a Democratic pickup for Michelle Nunn. But, Perdue won Cobb County (Marietta), by +12.87, and Gwinnett County (Lawrenceville), by +10.42, with margins above his statewide outcome. This can set him up for becoming unseated. That is because they are trending toward the Democrats. They were 2016 Democratic pickups for Hillary Clinton. They were 2018 Democratic pickups for Stacy Abrams, with all three trending for the Democrats by at least +8.20 points in excess of Abrams’s statewide margin of –1.39. They are key to why I think Perdue, who would not be able to hold Cobb and Gwinnett, and that Henry would further solidify its blue (Abrams won it by +15.34), is more likelier than not to become unseated. If you compare Perdue to Kentucky’s Mitch McConnell, who performed in 2014 by +8 points higher than Perdue, it makes it even more unlikely Perdue would win a second term. I perceive these two seats from Georgia to be the top bellwethers for the U.S. Senate and, with the state also reflective as a bellwether for U.S. President, for the overall national picture for what will become of the outcomes for Election 2020.

    My sense, right now, is that Election 2020 is looking like a Democratic wave in which the party wins the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. President, with a margin between +7 to +10. That would yield the 2016 map—which were 20 states, plus District of Columbia, and an original 232 electoral votes—with pickups of at least +9 but as much as +12 states.

    The pickups would include all three of the standout Emerging States—Arizona, Georgia, and Texas (polling lately as pure tossup)—which necessitate Democratic U.S. Popular Vote margins of +4, +5, and +7. A U.S. Popular Vote margin of +5, for Georgia, is where the U.S. Senate gets flipped from Republican to Democratic.

    If the U.S. Popular Vote margin goes beyond +7, we are at looking to 30 to 32 states with Ohio, Montana, and South Carolina for a 400-vote victory in the Electoral College. (That Quinnipiac University Poll, of +11, would deliver a 33rd state. My estimate: Kansas.)

    I have included a map with solid colors to indicate 2016-to-2020 party holds; medium blue for the bare minimum in 2020 Democratic pickups (+4 in the U.S. Popular Vote); medium are for flipping the U.S. Senate (minimum +5 in the U.S. Popular Vote); and tint blue are for the next tier (+8 to +10 in the U.S. Popular Vote); given Quinnipiac University reporting +11, I colored in Kansas in yellow for tossup just for illustrative purpose.

  2. Ronald May 22, 2020 7:26 am

    Thanks, D, and I have already suggested that the Electoral College could be 32 states to 18 on here and on an lecture available for purchase for $15, and that the electoral vote would be 422 to 116.

    However, I did not consider South Carolina as one of the 32 states, interesting, as it would be great if they were added, and Lindsey Graham were to lose his seat.

    I also said that I thought the maximum would be 443-95, if Missouri and or Indiana were to surprise as they have in the past!

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