Nate Silver, formerly of the New York Times, and now running the website 538, is considered a genius on statistics, and his predictions were spot on in 2012.
Therefore, his new prediction that the Republican Party will win six seats and a total majority of 51 in the US Senate gets a lot of publicity.
YES, it is possible what Silver projects, BUT saying that a party will win six seats and have a bare majority of 51, means that if he is off by one, then the Democrats keep the majority.
Silver may be brilliant, but he is not perfect by any means, anymore than anyone, so for Democrats to panic based on what he says seven and a half months before the midterm elections, is ridiculous!
If anything, it should make the Democrats work ever harder, and back with pride what they stand for, as there is nothing to be ashamed of, in backing ObamaCare.
Better to go down in principle, than abandon one’s beliefs, is the best advice.
Besides, foreign policy crises may intervene, and can turn things around dramatically, as it did in 1962, when the Cuban Missile Crisis in October affected the midterms, preventing a major loss of seats by the Democrats, the party of John F. Kennedy, who looked great in that crisis! The Democrats gained three seats in the Senate, and only lost four seats in the House of Representatives!
So, as Yogi Berra said, “it ain’t over until it’s over!”