Here it is, the day before the Midterm Elections of 2010, and time for final judgments on what is likely to happen tomorrow in the 37 Senate races. The author yesterday projected on the House of Representatives and the Governorships, with prediction of the loss of 33 seats by the Democrats in the Senate, and the loss of four seats in the Governorships, leading to a House balance of 224-211 Democratic in the House and 30 GOP Governors, 19 Democratic Governors, and one Independent (formerly Republican) in Rhode Island.
So here goes on the Senate races!
Safe Democratic Seats (6)
Daniel Inouye of Hawaii
Barbara Mikulski of Maryland
Chuck Schumer of New York
Kirsten Gillibrand of New York
Ron Wyden of Oregon
Patrick Leahy of Vermont
Safe Republican Seats (12)
Richard Shelby of Alabama
John McCain of Arizona
Johnny Isakson of Georgia
Mike Crapo of Idaho
Chuck Grassley of Iowa
Jerry Moran of Kansas
David Vitter of Louisiana
John Hoeven of North Dakota, takeover of Democratic seat from retiring Senator Byron Dorgan
Tom Coburn of Oklahoma
Jim DeMint of South Carolina
John Thune of South Dakota
Mike Lee of Utah
Contested Seats (19)
Alaska–Senator Lisa Murkowski (Write In) vs Republican Joe Miller and Democrat Scott McAdams–possibly the most difficult race to judge, with Murkowski having a real chance to win as a Write In, particularly with the blunders and lessening appeal of Joe Miller, and with Scott McAdams having a good chance to win with only high 30s percent of the vote. My bet is that McAdams wins the seat, a gain for the Democrats!
Arkansas–Senator Blanche Lincoln (D) vs Congressman John Boozman (R)–seems like a lost cause for the Democrats, so a Boozman win is a gain for the GOP!
Indiana–former Republican Senator Dan Coats against Democratic Congressman Brad Ellsworth for seat of Democrat Evan Bayh, who is retiring. Coats has the advantage, so another Republican gain is likely!
California–Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer against Carly Fiorina (R)–close race but Boxer should win seat and keep it for her party!
Colorado- Democratic appointed Senator Michael Bennet against Republican Ken Buck, a Tea Party favorite. Extremely close, but Bennet likely to keep seat for the Democrats!
Delaware–Democrat Chris Coons against Republican Christine O’Donnell for seat long held by Joe Biden, with Coons sure to win seat and keep it Democratic. This would be another loss for the Tea Party Movement!
Florida–Republican Marco Rubio against Indepedent Governor Charlie Crist and Democrat Kendrick Meek, one of the toughest races to prognosticate, but at this point, Marco Rubio has to be favored, with the seat staying Republican!
Illinois–Democrat Alexi Giannoulias against Republican Congressman Mark Kirk for Barack Obama’s Senate seat. Extremely close, but Giannoulias seen as likely to keep seat Democratic!
Kentucky–extremely hotly contested seat, with libertarian and Tea Party favorite and Republican nominee Rand Paul likely to beat state Attorney General Jack Conway, and keep seat Republican!
Missouri–Republican Congressman Roy Blunt likely to defeat Robin Carnahan, part of a famous dynasty, although Blunt’s son was also Governor of the state as was Carnahan’s father!
Nevada–most bitter race with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid always a survivor and likely to pull out a squeaker over Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle and keep seat Democratic!
New Hampshire–a Republican seat that will stay that way with Kelly Ayotte defeating Congressman Paul Hodes!
North Carolina–Republican Senator Richard Burr favored over Democrat Elaine Marshall!
Ohio–Republican Rob Portman favored to win over Democrat Lee Fisher!
Pennsylvania–Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak will win very tough race against former GOP Congressman Pat Toomey!
West Virginia–seat will stay Democratic with Governor Joe Manchin over Tea Party Favorite John Raese!
Wisconsin–very tough race for Russ Feingold and not expected to win, but somehow, the author expects a miracle victory in extremely close race over Ron Johnson, keeping the seat Democratic!
Connecticut–Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal will defeat Linda McMahon, GOP and Tea Party favorite in close race!
Washington–Senator Patty Murray will win close race against Republican Dino Rossi!
So what will be the balance, which is now 57 Democrats, 41 Republicans, and two independents (Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders)?
55 Democrats, 43 Republicans, and two independents!
GOP Gains–John Hoeven, North Dakota; Dan Coats, Indiana; John Boozman, Arkansas
Democratic Gains–Scott McAdams, Alaska
New Republicans in Republican seats–Jerry Moran, Kansas; Mike Lee, Utah; Marco Rubio, Florida; Rand Paul, Kentucky; Roy Blunt, Missouri; Kelly Ayotte, New Hampshire; Rob Portman, Ohio.
New Democrats in Democratic Seats–Chris Coons, Delaware; Alexi Giannoulias, Illinois; Joe Sestak, Pennsylvania; Joe Manchin, West Virginia; Richard Blumenthal, Connecticut.
So, that would mean a total of 16 new Senators, a high amount, with 10 Republicans and 6 Democrats!
But how many of the Republicans would be Tea Party favorites?
Only 3–Mike Lee, Marco Rubio, and Rand Paul, so not much of a victory by this right wing extremist movement, but enough to be annoying, imagining particularly Rand Paul gracing the Senate for at least six years! 🙁
And how many Tea Party favorites would have lost? Joe Miller, Linda McMahon, Sharron Angle, Ken Buck, Pat Toomey, Christine O’Donnell, John Raese, Ron Johnson–a total of 8 out of 11 possibilities, so not a bad result for those who are believers in progressive change!