Jon Ossoff

Rob Quist And Jon Ossoff Could Be Signs Of Democratic Advancement Against Donald Trump

The odds are growing that Democrat Rob Quist will win over Republican Greg Gianforte for the At Large House of Representatives seat in Montana this week, and that Democrat Jon Ossoff will win over Republican Karen Handel for the Georgia 6th Congressional seat race next month, flipping two House seats to the Democratic Party.

This is, to a great extent, due to the growing lack of popularity of President Donald Trump, and if the flip of two seats occurs, it could be a sign of a coming Democratic wave for the House elections in the fall of 2018, and would make Nancy Pelosi the House Speaker in 2019-2020, after having been Speaker from 2007-2010.

The odds of winning the Senate, however, are very long, and highly unlikely. as 25 Democrats must defend their seats, with only 8 Republicans facing reelection.

But a House of Representatives with a Democratic majority could move toward impeachment of the President, even though conviction in the Senate by two thirds is highly speculative, as right now it would require 19 Republicans along with the 48 Democrats, to be accomplished.

But if Donald Trump is still in office in 2019, such an impeachment trial might convince Trump to resign the Presidency, as Richard Nixon did in 1974.

The Urgency Of The Democratic Party Taking Back The House Of Representatives, And State Governorships And Legislatures In 2018

Jon Ossoff, the Democratic front runner in the 6th Congressional District of Georgia (Atlanta suburbs), fell just short of the 50 percent needed to win that seat in the House of Representatives, and avoid a runoff.

Now he will face Republican Karen Handel on June 20, and it will be more difficult to gain the seat, a traditionally GOP district in the past 38 years since Newt Gingrich won the seat in 1979, followed up by Tom Price, the Health and Human Services Secretary, who vacated the seat to become part of Donald Trump’s cabinet.

One can be assured massive amounts of money will be spent on both sides of this race, which, if Ossoff wins, would be a major blow to Donald Trump and his agenda.

The 24 point swing in Kansas’s special election for the House, and now the 10 point swing in Georgia, in the first round, are signs that the Democrats COULD regain the majority in the House of Representatives in 2018, after eight years in the “wilderness”.

It is simply a sign of the reality that the Democratic Party, at a low point, having lost so many seats in both houses of Congress in the Barack Obama era, along with governorships and state legislatures, have the urgency to work very hard to start their revival.

The average number of seats gained by the “out” party in the midterm elections is 23 in the House of Representatives, and right now, the Democrats need 24 seats to regain control, so it is within potential gains that one might expect.

The US Senate will be nearly impossible to win seats, however, as only 8 Republicans are up for reelection in 2018, as against 25 Democrats.

Looking at the GOP held seats, the only possible gains, and not easily, might be Jeff Flake’s seat in Arizona, and Dean Heller’s seat in Nevada. The only other possible hope would be if somehow Ted Cruz could be unseated in Texas, but that is highly unlikely. So at this point, the most that could be expected is a 50-50 tie in the Senate, with Vice President Mike Pence able to use his vote in a tied Senate.

One must realize that while many of the 25 Democratic seats are seen as safe, a large number are not so, including Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Jon Tester in Montana, Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, Joe Manchin in West Virginia, Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Bill Nelson in Florida, and Bob Casey in Pennsylvania. Note that Heitkamp, Manchin, and Donnelly tried to protect their flank by voting for Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch, but McCaskill, Tester, Nelson and Casey did not do so.

But beyond Congress, it is urgent that state governorships be gained, as well as control of more state legislatures, all in planning for the next census of 2020 and the redistricting of House seats and state legislative seats that will come after 2020, with the evil reality of gerrymandering affecting the next decade.