Tim Pawlenty

The First GOP Presidential Debate: A Major Yawn!

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The first Republican Presidential debate has just taken place in South Carolina, sponsored by Fox News Channel and the Republican Party of South Carolina.

Only one major candidate was at the debate, former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, and he may be the big winner simply by gaining more notice by participation in the debate, and in comparison to his competitors at the debate.

The others present, none of whom have any chance to be the Republican Presidential nominee, include former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, businessman Herman Cain of Godfather Pizza and a radio talk show host, and former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson.

Ron Paul was engaging personally as he always is, but as a libertarian, he has absolutely no chance to win the GOP nomination, but his push for withdrawing many of our military bases overseas to save money rings true as a great idea.

Santorum lost his Senate race for a third term in a landslide, and his social conservatism is seen by many as unacceptable because of extreme statements in the past.

Herman Cain and Gary Johnson are so unknown, and it is unlikely that either will gain much from the exposure at this debate.

It is clear that the GOP has not advanced itself by this debate, and that President Obama need not worry about any of these people being a serious challenge to his second term in the White House!

The Republican Sense Of Desperation As Fox News Channel Debate Occurs In Five Days!

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The Republican Party, the Grand Old Party of Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, Eisenhower, and Reagan, is facing a sense of desperation as the first scheduled debate among GOP Presidential candidates is only five days away, due on May 5 on Fox News Channel.

No one has really emerged from the pack, and those who have been noticed–Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, Donald Trump–have embarrassed themselves as well as the party. If this is the best the GOP can do, they may as well concede the election for President next year to President Obama!

Of course, no such thing will happen, but the mainstream candidates–Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Jon Huntsman–have not excited the party, and Mike Huckabee seems unlikely to run, and in any case, has put his foot in his mouth too many times already to be the ideal candidate.

With the decision of Haley Barbour to drop out of the race, attention is being drawn again to Mitch Daniels, Governor of Indiana, and former budget director under George W. Bush, but he has alienated social conservatives by emphasizing economic and budget issues, and suggesting there be a truce on social matters, such as gay rights, abortion, and school prayer. He also lacks charisma and presence, and since the budget debt doubled under George W. Bush, one wonders if his so called “magic” abilities with budgets, plus his strong anti labor stand in Indiana, ahead of Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Florida, is to be seen as a plus.

But once you go past Mitch Daniels, the others being promoted are even less thrilling!

To suggest “Bully” Governors, including Chris Christie of New Jersey and Scott Walker of Wisconsin seems suicidal, as neither has high public opinion ratings, has declared war on labor, and has an aggressive public personality that turns many people off!

And to suggest Texas Governor Rick Perry is really to promote desperation, as Perry is not too bright, and has advocated secession of his state in past political rhetoric! What the Democrats could do with that–wow!

But then, those who suggest Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the author of the GOP budget bill that wishes to make Medicare privatized in ten years, but admits no balanced budget for thirty years, are even more crazy. Not only is Ryan seen as a “wise guy” arrogant person, but also he has received many attacks at Town Halls in his own district, and his plan has been attacked bitterly by people of all age groups, and become cannon fodder for the Democrats, which they will be able to use next year in the Presidential Election of 2012.

The way things look, the best bet for the Republican Party is to turn toward Mitt Romney, as the most “mainstream” they can get to run against Barack Obama, but will the Tea Party activists and the evangelical Christians allow a Mormon, who was once a liberal to moderate in the party, to be its nominee? Stay tuned!

Haley Barbour And Ron Paul: One Out Of GOP Race, And The Other In!

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Republican politics is more amazing by the day!

Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour, a power player in the party apparatus as head of the Republican Governors Association, has decided NOT to run for President, although many thought of him as a “heavy hitter”! Barbour was liked by lobbyists in the party, but that was precisely why he looked undesirable to others, along with his insensitive comments about African Americans in Mississippi fifty years ago, which made him radioactive, as we are not about to elect an old Southern type to the White House in 2012. But many thought he would run, so his decision not to run is a big surprise!

Does this benefit anyone? YES, probably former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, who continues to look like the “dark horse” who might emerge from the pack, with similar views to Barbour, but a much better public image and presentation than Barbour was capable of demonstrating. Barbour has a lot of friends and associates who could be valuable to anyone he might endorse, and it is highly unlikely he would back either Mitt Romney or Jon Huntsman!

At the same time, Congressman Ron Paul of Texas is forming an exploratory committee to run again for President, despite the fact that he has absolutely no chance to be the nominee!

Paul’s libertarianism on domestic policy and his opposition to America’s role in overseas military adventures can appeal to many, but even with Tea Party backing, there is no possibility to believe that he could, at age 77, win the nomination or the Presidency. He is a gadfly who is more annoying to the GOP than anything else, and has already been ridiculed in the past when he ran in the 2008 primary season!

The only good thing about Ron Paul running is that it prevents his son, Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, from entering the race, as he could be more of an annoyance and potential threat than his father! But we must realize that Rand Paul will certainly run in future campaigns, a highly regrettable situation!

So the Republican Party wends its way toward total disaster in the Presidential race, while at the same time committing suicide politically with its”bully” Governors and the Paul Ryan plan to eliminate Medicare, both developments causing major headaches for the Republican Party in polls all across the country!

The Crisis Within The Republican Party For 2012!

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The Republican Party, once a proud party, is in total disarray, as all the attention is grabbed by what many call the “joke” candidates who have no chance to win, and yet are promoting a terrible image for the party, so much so, that the American people are totally unimpressed!

And yet, there is growing discontent with President Obama, due to the budget crisis, the stubbornly high unemployment, and the soaring gasoline prices, but there is no valid alternative!

At this point, there could be a landslide effect toward Obama, similar to what was the situation when Lyndon Johnson walloped Senator Barry Goldwater in the 1964 election, and in fact, no candidate gains 20 percent support in the latest polls, similar to what Goldwater had 47 years ago!

The control of religious conservatives and Tea Party activists are entrapping all reasonable, rational thought, and holding hostage any realistic, mainstream candidates from emerging!

Face the facts! The following so called “candidates” are disasters in the making in any order: Donald Trump, Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Herman Cain, Gary Johnson, Haley Barbour, and any others who come out of the woodwork to claim they wish to run!

The “birther” issue and the race issue and the gay issue have destroyed all of the above from serious consideration by anyone with intelligence!

The only “serious” candidates, but lacking excitement for now, are Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Jon Huntsman, and really stretching it, Mitch Daniels and Jeb Bush, who have evinced no interest in running, but would have to be seen as serious and viable were they to announce for President!

Any “bully” Governor, such as Chris Christie, Scott Walker, Rick Scott, Rick Snyder, or John Kasich, would be counterproductive, as all of them have caused great opposition and controversy!

It is time for Republican leaders to follow former George W. Bush advisor Karl Rove and do everything they can to derail all the loonies, and promote Romney, Pawlenty, Huntsman, Daniels or Bush as the ONLY viable candidates out of a sad group of people who betray the Republican heritage since 1854–the Republican Party of Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, Dwight D. Eisenhower, and yes, even Ronald Reagan!

Karl Rove And The “Birthers”: Civil War Developing In Republican Party!

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Karl Rove, the mastermind behind George W. Bush, much maligned and denounced by many, at least has some common sense, and has come out swinging against the loonies in his party, who continue to support the “Birther” argument that Barack Obama was not born in America!

A strong attack by Rove against Donald Trump, and by implication against Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann and others in the party who continue the reckless argument that only promotes disrespect and conspiracy theories, at a time when this nation has so many problems and issues, is a strong sign that the GOP is about to implode!

Again, only two major candidates totally repudiate the “Birther” argument convincingly–Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty, and that is why if the party has any sense, it will nominate one or the other next year for the GOP nomination, with Romney still having the upper hand at this point, but with Pawlenty or Jon Huntsman as “dark horses” who might suddenly surge!

Unfortunately, as Rove well realizes, the GOP is becoming the laughing stock of serious minded people with its irresponsible candidates, who seem to focus on nothing else except citizenship, rather than the important domestic and foreign policy issues!

What is becoming more apparent is that the Republican Party MUST declare a break with the Tea Party Movement loonies, both on economic and social issues, and liberate themselves to return to be re-established as a main stream party, as it used to be until 1980!

If not, if the Tea Party Movement takes over, the Republican Party will become part of the dustbin of history!

Three Internal Struggles Within The Republican Presidential Race: Business Experience, Mormonism, And Being From Minnesota!

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The upcoming Republican Presidential race has three potential major conflicts.

The first is between former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and real estate mogul Donald Trump, over the issue of business experience, both having it, but Trump declaring that his business background is far superior to that of Romney. Additionally, Trump is bragging about his greater financial assets, as compared to Romney, but no one should feel sorry for the size of Romney’s fortune!

Secondly, Romney and former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman both are Mormons, which could make an interesting race on that issue, but could actually hurt both of them with evangelical Christians, who see Mormons as part of a cult, and not Christian!

Thirdly, former Governor Tim Pawlenty and Congresswoman Michele Bachmann both come from Minnesota, and that could create a major complication for Pawlenty, as more excitement centers around Bachmann as a rabble rouser in the party establishment and among Tea Party Movement people!

In the long run, the more serious candidates are probably Romney and Pawlenty, so the problems of Trump, Huntsman, and Bachmann make their quest for the GOP nomination all that much more difficult!

The Split Political Personality of Minnesota

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Minnesota is certainly not the only state to have a split political personality, but right now it really stands out as unusual!

My colleague, Professor Steve Watnik, pointed this out today, and made me really think about this, so here goes!

Minnesota had great political luminaries in the past, including Hubert Humphrey, Walter Mondale, Eugene McCarthy, and Paul Wellstone, and continues to have some today in Senators Al Franken and Amy Klobuchar, and Congressman Keith Ellison, who is the first Muslim in Congress.

But it is also the state of two potential GOP candidates for President: the solid conservative former Governor Tim Pawlenty, who has managed to avoid looking or acting loony or weird, as so many others in the party have appeared; and Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, who has no problem in looking loony and weird, and seems to revel in it, as she displays total ignorance and outrageous comments while claiming to be religious and led by God’s command. Only Sarah Palin may be more outrageous in her behavior and comments than Bachmann, but certainly it is a close race between the two ladies!

So Minnesota is likely to see two home staters competing for the nomination, along with others, and Pawlenty seems legitimate, while Bachmann most certainly does not, all adding to the allure of following Minnesota politics for the Presidential Election year of 2012!

Former Senator Alan Simpson: Lots Of Common Sense, But Highly Controversial!

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Former Republican Senator Alan Simpson of Wyoming, who served from 1979 to 1997, has always been known for being blunt, colorful in his language, and highly controversial.

A conservative in his voting in the Senate, Simpson, however, exudes a lot of common sense, even though he antagonizes on a regular basis.

A critic of the American Association Of Retired Persons (AARP), who he accuses of being only a business to make money, rather than an advocate for senior citizens, Simpson headed the President’s Deficit Commission last year, co chairing with Erskine Bowles, Democrat and Bill Clinton advisor.

The two men came up with recommendations to change the Social Security System long term and to pare defense spending by bringing many of our troops home from foreign countries, and they were immediately vilified for their stand.

But what they advocated makes a lot of sense, and their suggestion to raise the retirement age to 68 by 2050 and 69 by 2075 is certainly reasonable, as we already have had one change in age, the 1983 law negotiated between Speaker Thomas “Tip” O’Neill and President Ronald Reagan, raising the retirement age to 66 for those born after 1960.

Simpson has now come out to declare that the Republican Party has a horrible group of candidates, none of which enthuses him, and he was particularly super critical of those, such as Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin and others who use the “social” issues of gay rights and abortion as part of their appeal.

Simpson may be annoying to many, but he has a lot of common sense and practical advice, and should not be ignored!

But it is clear to Simpson and to this author that the GOP is in real trouble, with very few candidates that are legitimate!

Again, as the author contends, the ONLY GOP candidates that have real credentials that could possibly lead to a serious challenge to President Barack Obama are Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman, and Tim Pawlenty.

With Romney announcing an exploratory committee today, and Pawlenty hiring his campaign manager, the race is beginning, but too much air is being taken out by the loonies and the crazies, and unless one of these three above named can pull things out of the ditch, the Republican Party will be a joke in 2012!

The State and Congressional Republicans: A Problem For Presidential “Possibility” Republicans!

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The Republican Party, state level and Congressional level, is moving so far to the right of center in American politics that they are presenting a real problem for Presidential “Possibility” Republicans, helping to spur those ambitious for the Presidency to hold back and reassess their chances! It is amazing that no major candidate has yet announced his or her run for the Presidency on the Republican side!

So many of the Republican Presidential field are as loony and dangerous as the state governors, the Tea Party House members, and Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, who would wipe out Medicare and Medicaid as we know it, in a mad dash to cut taxes on the wealthy from 35 percent to 25 percent, making the Republican Party the opposite of Robin Hood–stealing from the masses to give more to the wealthy!

At this point, only a few Republican possibilities for President seem able to appeal to independents and the middle class–Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman, Tim Pawlenty–but they would need to separate themselves from the hard right move of the GOP toward the lunatic fringe!

And if any of the three above were to separate themselves enough to win the nomination, they would have a massive headache as to how to move ahead as a centrist leader of a party that is far out of the mainstream!

As the GOP moves further to the right, therefore, the likelihood of an Obama win in 2012 grows geometrically, rather than arithmetically!

Republican Loonies Start Emerging In The Presidential Race: Michele Bachmann, Donald Trump, And Rand Paul!

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The Republican Party of 2011 is on the road to total insanity, as we are about to enter the season of the loonies running for President, and making the Republican Party look both ridiculous and reckless!

As stated in other blog entries, if the GOP hopes to have a real shot at the Presidency, they need to nominate either Mitt Romney or Jon Huntsman, with the outside possibility of Tim Pawlenty.

But if they nominate Newt Gingrich, with all his skeletons in the closet and contradictions, they lose.

If they nominate Sarah Palin, with all her mindlessness and lack of knowledge and capabilities, they are destroyed.

If they nominate Haley Barbour, with his racial insensitivity and image as a promoter of the Old South and political wheeling dealing, they lose.

If they nominate Rick Santorum, with his emphasis on socially conservative issues, and his concern about man having sex with animals if gays have rights, they lose.

If they nominate Mike Huckabee, after his recent “birther” comments about President Obama and his promotion of himself as a preacher of morality, they lose.

But on top of all the above and their difficulties as candidates for the White House, it actually gets worse!

Those recently emerging as possible seekers of the Presidency include Michele Bachmann, Donald Trump, and Rand Paul–a move from the ridiculous to the loony and insane!

Michele Bachmann has been hinting she will run, because God wants her to run! This woman has proved herself to be absolutely ignorant, prejudiced, confrontational, accusatory in a way that reminds us of Joseph McCarthy at his worst, and just plain stupid, but also dangerous. She also sets up a potential rivalry with another candidate actually dumber than she is–Sarah Palin. If they both run, that should be something worth observing! Bachmann could also present a problem for Tim Pawlenty from the same state of Minnesota, as well, particularly in Iowa, the first state to vote in 2012 in their caucus, and a state where evangelical Christians play a major role, a fact that would make it impossible for Romney or Huntsman, both Mormons, to have a chance at competing!

Donald Trump has the virtue of being intelligent, but he is also arrogant, belligerent, and would be a danger in foreign policy because of his bellicose nature, and crazy belief that one can insult and denounce foreign governments, such as China, and that there will be no counterproductive developments. He could spend $600 million of his own money, but that in itself is obscene, as the last thing we need is for a President to, literally, “buy” the position! However, his involvement in debates should be some of the greatest entertainment ever seen in American politics!

And more unbelievable and loony than anyone would be the possible entrance of RAND PAUL, not Ron Paul, his dad, in the Presidential race. As bad as Ron Paul is in so many ways, Rand Paul is much more radical and dangerous and plain stupid in his assessment of how to deal with domestic and foreign policy! Libertarianism is NOT the future, and would be extremely destructive in the hands of someone who is not even certified as an optometrist by the traditional professional organization of his field, but rather by an organization formed by HIMSELF!

The Republican Party is going to provide a lot of entertainment, but unless, again, they nominate Romney, Huntsman, or Pawlenty, they are throwing away the Presidential Election of 2012 before it starts.

Oh, and by the way, some say, what about Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels. The answer is to forget that, as Daniels is having trouble in his state getting legislation accomplished, and his anti labor leadership is not going to work, as the Wisconsin debacle of Scott Walker is going to hurt the Republican Party massively in 2012, and if the GOP does not realize that, they are also doomed!