Public Opinion Polls

Based on recent polls that seem unbelievable, the idea of “White Flight” from Republicans might be happening.

This would be due to the CoronaVirus Pandemic, the collapse of the economy, but also due to the shock and outrage of many people toward Donald Trump, and his behavior in the Presidency these past three and a half years!

His incompetence and lack of compassion and empathy is making many white voters reconsider the upcoming elections.

So the number of states experiencing polls that show Republicans running behind for the Congress, as well as the President, are multiplying.

Many suburban women, college educated whites, independents, moderate Republicans, and all age groups among whites, except for seniors, are moving toward the possibility of voting for Democrats in Congress, and also for former Vice President Joe Biden.

There is still, theoretically, time for many of these people to reconsider their move away from Trump and the Republican Party, but since events are not going to get better anytime soon, and actually are worsening daily, that is highly unlikely.

So the situation looks as follows:

As indicated in earlier blog posts, the 20 states and Washington DC, which voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, seem securely in Joe Biden’s camp.

Add to this the six states that determined the election for Donald Trump in the Electoral College, all having voted for Barack Obama in 2012–Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida. As of now, the latter four seem clearly in Biden’s camp, and would insure a Democratic victory for the White House.

But Ohio and Iowa also show leanings toward Biden, and other states, thought to be “Red”, also are showing evidence of the same leanings, including North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona, but also Kansas, Montana, Indiana and Missouri, and the 2nd district of Nebraska. This would mean 443 electoral votes to 95, as this author and blogger predicted on April 30.

So 34 states could go to Biden, and the Republican US Senators or open seats running in Maine, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, two in Georgia, Texas, Arizona, Kansas, and Montana are all in danger as well.

South Carolina and Kentucky seem hard to overcome on the Presidential level, but both Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell seem in a real tight race for their seats, and could lose.

If all of these Senate seats went Democratic, the party could control 12 more seats than they have now, with 59 maximum, or if the one endangered Democrat, Doug Jones in Alabama, lost, it would be 58 seats. If there is a “Blue Wave”, however, one would think Jones would survive his Senate race!

The way things are going, one could even imagine some of the 16 “certain” states for Trump voting against him by small margins, but enough to give the state to Joe Biden.

This would include Alaska, South Carolina, and Kentucky with a total of 20 electoral votes, so if the maximum imaginable occurred, the final electoral vote would be 37 states and 463 electoral votes to 75 for Trump!

And this would mean that Joe Biden would win by a likely ten point or more margin in the total popular vote!

One more time, in mid to late October, this author and blogger will make a final projection on the likely Senate and Presidential results!