Mike Huckabee

Tim Pawlenty Gets A Boost In The GOP Presidential Race

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Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty has been seen as a insignificant factor in the Republican Presidential race, having far less voter recognition than his potential major opponents–Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Haley Barbour and Rick Santorum.

But several things have occurred which improve his chances of being a serious candidate:

Congressman Mike Pence of Indiana and Senator John Thune of South Dakota, both regional Midwestern potential candidates, decided not to run for President, giving him a boost in Iowa, the first measure of party support on February 6, 2012.

Rumors are flying that Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin may not run for President, due to the lucrative positions they have with Fox News Channel, plus other money making activities for Palin.

All of the other major Presidential possibilities, and even some of the minor ones, have “skeletons in the closet”, major negatives that can hurt them, such as:

Mitt Romney–He is seen as having promoted a health care plan in Massachusetts similar to what President Obama was able to achieve nationally in 2010. Also, he is seen by many as secretly a northeastern liberal in his background, and being a Mormon hurts him with evangelical Christians. Plus he had one go around already and lost to John McCain.

Mike Huckabee–He has had one go around already, is seen as a big spender during his years as Governor of Arkansas, and may not want to give up the lucrative income he has recently enjoyed for the first time in his life. Plus he seems concerned with the costs of running for President against President Obama, who will probably have a billion dollar campaign fund.

Sarah Palin–She has not developed a real set of plans to run, may not want to give up her lucrative income to run, and is actually not running well in many polls, since she is seen as shallow, and more of a cult figure than a serious Presidential possibility.

Newt Gingrich–He has a lot of personal life scandals in his past, has not been in public office for 14 years by 2012, and is very divisive in his rhetoric, making him less appealing to many who think of him as a “flame thrower”.

Haley Barbour–He has made major blunders with his lack of understanding and miscues about the civil rights movement in his home state of Mississippi in the 1960s, plus the question exists whether someone from the deep South can appeal to the nation at large.

Rick Santorum–He has the problem of a massive Senate defeat for reelection in 2006, and his being best remembered for his “man-dog” statement in opposing gay rights and gay marriage. He is not taken very seriously as a Presidential candidate by anyone in top leadership of the GOP.

Other candidates also have major problems if they decide to run.

Jon Huntsman–He has a background as a moderate in the party, which is not a plus. Plus he was Barack Obama’s Ambassador to China, which could be harmful, and being a Mormon, as Romney is, is probably a major minus as well.

Michele Bachmann–The Congresswoman from Minnesota may appeal to the Tea Party and could be a rival of fellow Minnesotan Pawlenty, but it is hard to imagine that her loose mouth and extremist image would give her a serious chance for the nomination. Plus being a Congresswoman is a difficult challenge for the Presidency, as only one Congressman (James Garfield) ever went directly to the Presidency, and he was dead by assassination six months into his term in 1881.

Ron Paul–He has his followers, and has won the CPAC straw poll twice in a row, but to imagine a libertarian in his late 70s who has tried before for the nomination, and been ridiculed by all others in the party who have run for President, to go on to the nomination is a tremendous long shot, hard to conceive.

Donald Trump–The billionaire businessman is pretty obnoxious and a publicity seeker, and were he to run, his anti Chinese rhetoric and basic belligerence on foreign policy issues would make him a dangerous choice for the Presidency, and since he is not a lovable character personally, it is hard to imagine him going all the way to the nomination.

The above analysis does not mean that none of them can be the nominee, but by comparison , Tim Pawlenty has a real chance to emerge, based on the following factors.

He is from the heartland of the Midwest, the battleground for 2012, and with Mike Pence and John Thune out of the race, that is a boost for Pawlenty.

He first gained notice with John McCain’s campaign for President in 2008, and was on the short list for Vice President, but with McCain’s defeat, it actually was better that he did not win the VP nomination.

Pawlenty is a strong evangelical Christian, and has gained a lot of support from social conservatives and the Tea Party as a result.

He has had real executive experience as Governor of Minnesota for two terms and a total of eight years.

He has been promoted as a candidate with fewer problems, issues, and “skeletons in the closet”, by conservative George Will and MSNBC talk show host Lawrence O’Donnell, giving him, therefore, a bit of a boomlet for the Presidency.

Pawlenty comes across well on television, as a photogenic personality and well spoken, and even at times having a good sense of humor, when he said at the CPAC convention that he had no doubts of Barack Obama’s citizenship, but thought what he believed in sometimes might make one think he was from “outer space!”

This is not an endorsement by this author of Pawlenty by any means, as he strongly prefers Barack Obama to win reelection, but simply a statement that Pawlenty may be the surprise of 2012, and should not be ignored.

Having said that, the author still feels that the best candidate that the GOP could run, overall, would be Mitt Romney or Jon Huntsman, but again, Tim Pawlenty will probably be an important part of the equation at the end!

Barack Obama’s And Sarah Palin’s Effect On The Republican Presidential Race

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Here it is mid February, less than a year to the Iowa caucuses, and not one Republican has announced for President.

Instead, Indiana Congressman Mike Pence has announced that he will NOT run, and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has indicated that while he will not run in 2012, he is leaving the door open for 2016.

Why is no one announcing?

Well, it may be that many potential candidates see a race against President Obama as a difficult one, which indeed it will be. While the Republicans gained 63 seats in the House of Representatives in 2010, that is no indication that they have an edge in the Presidential race, and the fact that they control the House makes the President able to use them as a foil, and Obama is certain, eventually, to attack the Republicans on domestic policy, and to use foreign policy as a bulwark for his campaign for re-election. It should not be surprising that Jeb Bush prefers to wait to 2016 when there would be an open race without an incumbent, if one assumes Obama has the edge for 2012.

Remember that Harry Truman, Dwight D. Eisenhower and Bill Clinton won re-election despite BOTH houses being in the hands of the opposition party in the midterm election!

But also, the uncertainty about Sarah Palin, whether she will run, also muddies up the race.

Palin is looking weak in the polls, and it is hard to imagine she will give up the money making opportunities she now has to run, with the knowledge her earnings would be badly hit while she is a candidate for the White House. But she has just hired a top campaign strategist, and feels a need to react to every slight or criticism of her, including recent ones by fellow Republicans Tim Pawlenty, Rick Santorum and John Thune. Since they are not leading candidates at this point, they have decided to gamble on light criticism or teasing of Palin, but others seen as more serious candidates, including Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney, have, so far, avoided such criticism.

But Palin is the so called “800 pound elephant” in the room, and that, along with Obama’s growing strength and the feeling that he has an edge for re-election, is contributing to the fact that candidates so far are reluctant to stick their necks out and announce they are running.

Still, within the next three months, it will be necessary for candidates to announce themselves, in order to have a realistic chance to gain support and financial backing, so whether Obama looks as strong as he does now, or Palin stays out or comes into the race, the die is cast in the sense that announcement of candidacies can only be delayed so far without being seen as no longer serious contenders!

Assessment Of CPAC Winners

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There are many different ways to look at the CPAC meeting in Washington, DC this past weekend, as to who looks better or who advanced himself by his or her presentation.

It seems to this blogger that Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels and former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty came across as the best, in the sense that both should be taken more seriously after their substantive speeches.

Newt Gingrich is an intellectual heavyweight as a former professor, but while he inspired the crowd, it is hard to see him as someone who can actually overcome his many shortcomings, including being out of office for 14 years by 2012.

Mitt Romney did his usual presentation, and is probably the front runner in theory, but also has major problems ahead to win the nomination.

John Thune, who may not run, came across as a promising new face.

With Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin not at the CPAC, the others advanced somewhat just by that fact.

But it is clear the GOP race for President is wide open, and do not forget Jon Huntsman, former Ambassador to China, who is expected to run, and could have a real appeal as a centrist in a party going too far to the right for the election campaign!

CPAC Convention Demonstrates Total Division On 2012 Presidential Nominee

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The CPAC convention this weekend in Washington, DC, again demonstrated total division on the issue of who to support for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination, as Congressman Ron Paul of Texas again won the straw poll with only about 30 percent of the vote, with Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts second with 23 percent, and everyone else way back in the single digits.

The chances of Ron Paul being the 2012 GOP nominee are zero, even though he had won last year’s CPAC straw poll as well. His views on removing America’s involvement overseas, while appealing to many, will never be the Republican platform in 2012, and his libertarian domestic views, while very appealing to a lot of young people at the convention and around the country, also has no chance to become standard GOP doctrine.

With Mitt Romney ending up second again, and having been first in 2007 and 2008, it may just be a boost to his candidacy, but still it is clear the race for the hearts and minds of conservatives will be a long drawn out battle over the next year.

With Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee not attending the CPAC convention, and failing to show up well in the CPAC straw poll, it also may help Romney, but it seems likely that there will be a lot of blood letting before any chance of unity, and indeed there is no guarantee of a united backing of any Republican nominee for President in 2012.

The Conflict Among Conservatives And Within The Conservative Movement

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Conservatives argue that they are for smaller government, lower taxes, less regulation, freedom and liberty.

They don’t like any type of economic regulation or redistribution of wealth.

And yet when push comes to shove, they are very willing to raise taxes on the average person and redistribute wealth to the top two percent, and destroy the middle class by their policies! 🙁

They are for freedom and liberty, and yet believe in a security state which can bug and wiretap everyone through the Patriot Act, and deny people privacy as to their library borrowing and bookstore purchases! 🙁

They are very willing to interfere in people’s social lives, including denying gays the basic freedom to serve in the military and marry the person they love; deny a woman the right to control her own body, even if a pregnancy is dangerous to her health; and impose religion on the population through promotion of a sectarian Christian prayer in public schools! 🙁

Even libertarian conservatives such as Rand Paul claim to want smaller government, and yet want to outlaw abortions from conception of the fetus, which is certainly government intrusion in private lives! 🙁

Conservatism claims to believe in individual rights, and yet constantly interferes with such rights in so many ways.

Conservatives wish to destroy the social safety net which has been with us since the New Deal of the 1930s, and this would create more poverty and deprivation and redistribute wealth further to the elite rich, and they have no conscience at all in doing this!

The Conservative Political Action Conference this Thursday to Saturday will showcase many of the potential GOP Presidential candidates, many of which conflict with each other about these different, competing and contradictory strands of the conservative movement.

With one year to go to the Iowa caucuses next February 6, most of the Republican aspirants for the White House shall appear and make speeches at CPAC, including Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, John Thune, Mitch Daniels, Haley Barbour and Ron Paul.

But because of supposed scheduling conflicts, Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin are not attending, which is very odd, as if they really wanted to attend this event in Washington, DC, they would find a way!

The competition among the attendees to win the straw poll vote and to appeal to the conflicting wings of the conservative movement should be very fascinating to watch this weekend! 🙂

The Presidential Game: No One Rules It Out, Including For 2016! :)

Ronald 1 Comment

There is something about the office of the Presidency that everyone imaginable seems to think he or she might run for President, if not in 2012, then in 2016! 🙂

Based on rumor, speculation, declared interest, likely candidacy, or even hallucination, the following are possible to be on the Presidential primary and caucus ballot in 2012 or 2016 (no special order): Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Haley Barbour, Newt Gingrich, John Thune, Rick Santorum, Mitch Daniels, Jon Huntsman, Michele Bachmann, Donald Trump, Rudy Guiliani, John Bolton, Gary Johnson, Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Jim DeMint, Rick Scott, Rand Paul, Mike Pence, George Pataki, Herman Cain.

Of course, a rational person might eliminate all but six or seven of these, but seeking the Presidency is like a disease, and therefore, we are in the “silly season” right now, while President Barack Obama deals with the tough domestic and foreign policy issues, and is increasing his lead against any opponent, because he has proved he has substance and is not the ridiculous candidates that most of the above are!

Which ones are not ridiculous? In the view of the author, they are as follows, in no particular order: Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Tim Pawlenty, John Thune, Mitch Daniels, Jon Huntsman, Jeb Bush. These seven are the best of the lot, with most of the rest totally preposterous!

We shall see whether the GOP is rational or delusional in the coming year up to the primaries and caucuses!

The “Dark Horse” To Watch For The GOP Presidential Nomination: Jon Huntsman Of Utah

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As the Republican Presidential race is about to begin, former Utah Governor and US Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman is the man to watch, the so called “dark horse” in the multi candidate race.

Huntsman accepted the offer of President Barack Obama to be the Ambassador to China in 2009, and has filled that post very well for the past almost two years. Skilled in Mandarin Chinese and considered an expert on Asian affairs generally, Huntsman is a brilliant, talented man, only 50 years old, and very photogenic and charismatic to boot!

His decision to resign his post in China, plus his purchase of a home in Washington, DC, give broad hints that he is going to seek the Presidential nomination, and he so hinted over a month ago in an interview in Newsweek Magazine.

What are his negatives? Well, he is a Mormon like Mitt Romney, which will upset many evangelical Christians who consider the Church of Latter Day Saints a cult religion, and not really Christian.

Also, by agreeing to work for President Obama, it makes him somewhat suspect in GOP circles, and Obama even joked last month that he thought Huntsman would really please Republican leaders, leading to Obama’s cute way of chuckling! 🙂

Also, Huntsman is definitely a moderate centrist, unwilling to take the strong right wing stands of other Republicans, and not willing to cave in to Tea Party activists.

In a poll of Mormons in Utah, it is clear that they favor fellow Mormon Mitt Romney, who seems much more dedicated to his faith than is Huntsman. Also, as Governor of Utah, Huntsman took socially moderate positions on abortion, illegal immigration, and civil unions for gays and lesbians, which would antagonize most orthodox Mormons.

But his socially moderate views, his brilliance and intelligence and service in China, his good looks and charisma, and his mainstream Republicanism generally, could actually set him apart in the race, and if the GOP wishes to have a real shot at defeating President Obama, Huntsman would probably be their best bet, even more than Mitt Romney who has always been seen as trying to cater to the right wing even though his record shows he is actually in the center, or was, as Governor of Massachusetts, including a health care plan strikingly similar to that of President Obama!

So if the GOP wants a real shot at winning, they would be wise to turn to Huntsman, rather than to cater to the right wing Christian conservatives and Tea Party activists!

So stay tuned as we see whether the GOP is ready to commit suicide and go for a KNOW NOTHING such as Sarah Palin or Michele Bachmann, or a FLAME THROWER such as Newt Gingrich, or a bland boring candidate such as Tim Pawlenty, or a Baptist preacher big spender as Governor such as Mike Huckabee, or a “phony” conservative such as Mitt Romney!

The Hispanic Leadership Network Inaugural Conference And The Republican Presidential Field: A No Show Except For Tim Pawlenty!

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The inaugural conference of the Hispanic Leadership Network is taking place in Coral Gables, Florida, designed to promote a connection between the Hispanic community nationally and the Republican Party.

However, only ONE of the generally accepted list of potential GOP nominees is appearing before the group–former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, who claims no interest in running, is hosting the conference, and his brother, the former President George W. Bush, sent a message of support as well. Additionally, Florida Governor Rick Scott and Texas Senator John Cornyn are speaking before the group, as is former Minnesota Senator Norm Coleman.

But the fact that Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Haley Barbour, Mike Pence, John Thune, Mitch Daniels, and Rick Santorum chose not to appear is a sign of the problem the GOP faces–that they are unwilling to face the reality of the growing power of the Hispanic and Latino community, and that is at their detriment in the electoral future!

The Iowa Presidential Caucus Of 2012: A Battle Between Mike Huckabee And Sarah Palin?

Ronald 1 Comment

Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is seen by many observers as having an edge to win the Iowa Presidential caucus if she decides to enter the Presidential race.

With her strong support among evangelical Christians and conservative Tea Party activists, it is feared among mainstream Republicans that she would get an early boost in financial support and media exposure if she was to win the first test of voters in that crucial midwestern state.

But if one thinks back to the 2008 Iowa caucus results, the realization is that former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, himself an ordained Baptist minister, won that contest over John McCain and Mitt Romney, even though he floundered after that victory.

So if both of these former Governors and Fox News Channel employees decide to compete in this contest, along with many others, it is far from certain that Palin would indeed have an edge to win Iowa!

This far ahead, there is no way to forecast how the caucus would turn out, and remember, it is NOT a guarantee that winning the Iowa Presidential caucus would be the first step toward the nomination of the Republican Party for the Presidency of the United States! It could just be gaining headlines and attention that disappears once the New Hampshire primary takes place!

Is A Republican “Dark Horse” To Emerge In 2012 Presidential Race?

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“Dark Horses”, candidates who are not thought of seriously and come from behind to win or be major factors in a political race, are a part of America’s political culture!

We have had several “dark horse” Presidential nominees of a major party, and four have become President, all Democrats–James K. Polk in 1844, Franklin Pierce in 1852, Woodrow Wilson in 1912, and Jimmy Carter in 1976!

Wendell Willkie, the 1940 GOP nominee for President, was also a “dark horse”, but lost the race to Franklin D. Roosevelt.

However, we had “dark horses” who excited the races in both parties in the past two presidential election cycles before flopping–Howard Dean in 2004 for the Democrats, and Mike Huckabee in 2008 for the Republicans!

So therefore, there are a few potential candidates for “dark horse” for the GOP for 2012! The candidates being talked about are primarily Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty, and Haley Barbour.

But the names to watch for 2012 might include:

Congressman Mike Pence of Indiana, who has charisma, good looks, strong conservative and Tea Party credentials, and has had a leadership position in the House as Conference Chairman of the GOP.

Senator elect Marco Rubio of Florida, who is often called the Cuban Barack Obama in reverse, and is young, charismatic, good looking, has fervent support from conservatives and Tea Party people, and represents the largest state in population of any GOP potential candidate who is seen as a possible nominee.

Senator John Thune of South Dakota, who is charismatic, handsome, strong conservative, seen as best bet for any Senator seen as a possibility in a primarily competition among Governors and former Governors.

Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts, who is handsome, charismatic, and started the victory wave against the Democrats when he won the Senate seat of the late Ted Kennedy, but will have trouble being elected for a full term in Democratic dominated Massachusetts, so might run for President instead, although probably too moderate for the Republican base.

Could any of these four seriously become the Presidential nominee? Well, we have only had one Congressman go directly to the White House (James Garfield), and he was assassinated after only a few months in the Presidency! Both Rubio and Brown will have had very brief experience on the national level by 2012, similar however to Barack Obama!

Thune will have had eight years in the Senate, along with six previous years in the House of Representatives, so will be, by far, the most experienced nationally of any of these “dark horse” possibilities by 2012!

If one had to prognosticate who among these might have the best chance to emerge, were they to run, the best bet is that it would be John Thune, so it will be interesting to watch and see what happens to this group of potential candidates! Stay tuned! 🙂