John Thune

Mitt Romney’s Running Mate: Who Could End Up As Vice President Next Year?

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It may seem premature to ponder who could be Mitt Romney’s running mate for Vice President, after only two contests, the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary, but speculation is already beginning.

It is not an unimportant issue, as one must remember that a Vice President is one heartbeat away from the Presidency, and we have had nine Vice Presidents succeed to the office of President, mostly recently Gerald Ford, after Richard Nixon’s resignation in 1974.

We have now had a longer period of no Vice Presidential succession than ever since the first time the Vice President (John Tyler) replaced a President who had died after one month in office in 1841 (William Henry Harrison).

We have had Vice Presidential choices that have been nightmares, such as Sarah Palin in 2008, Dan Quayle in 1988 and Spiro Agnew in 1968, with the latter two making even opponents of George H. W. Bush and Richard Nixon wish for their continued good health!

Many individuals are being speculated about who would not be good choices in one way or another.

Among these are:

Florida Senator Marco Rubio
South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley
Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum
Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie

All of the above are highly controversial in different ways, and would not draw moderates or independents, crucial in an election more than a nomination battle. And all, except Santorum, have been in high office too briefly, so the lack of experience would be harmful, as each has only finished one year in his or her position in government on a national level, with the exception of Christie with two years in office. Santorum lost reelection by a wider margin than just about any incumbent senator in history, when he lost his seat in 2006.

So, a better list would be the following, all adding to Romney, rather than subtracting:

Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty
Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell
Tennessee Senator Bob Corker
Ohio Senator Rob Portman
Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels
Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal
Missouri Senator Roy Blunt
South Dakota Senator John Thune
Illinois Senator Mark Kirk

All of these nine, four governors and five senators, have had experience and come across as less controversial, and all would be qualified to take over in an emergency, if that were to happen.

Of course, all would have to be vetted, but on first look, they all seem to be capable of serving as President if need be, and far better than Palin, Quayle or Agnew!

The Long List Of Republican Presidential Dropouts: Why If 2012 Is Such A Great Year For The GOP?

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Common belief is that 2012 will see the defeat of President Barack Obama, and recent polls seem to indicate such, except, of course, for the fact that polls in the summer and fall of the year BEFORE the national elections are notoriously misleading!

But with such predictions and prognostications, why is it that a long list of Republicans, some of them very attractive possibilities, have decided NOT to seek the Presidency?

First the list of candidates in no special order:

Jeb Bush
Haley Barbour
John Bolton
Mitch Daniels
Jim DeMint
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
Mike Pence
David Petraeus
Paul Ryan
John Thune
Donald Trump
Rudy Guiliani
Sarah Palin
Chris Christie

That is a list of FIFTEEN people, some of them very appealing in different ways, who have decided NOT to run!

But why?

1. It is an arduous chore, costly, dominating, stressful to run for President, and becomes all encompassing to the candidate and his or her family.
2. It requires tremendous financial and organizational support to make a serious run for President, not easily achieved.
3. It requires a “thick skin” with the strong criticisms and investigations of one’s record, of everything ever said or done, that is automatic when one runs for President.
4. It requires a candidate to be knowledgeable, informed, and to have good debate skills against potential opponents.
5. It is required that a candidate have the “fire in the belly” that he or she is meant to run, and willingness to sacrifice his or her life for a year or more.

With all of the above, one other point should be made in conclusion: The candidate has to believe that Barack Obama can be defeated in 2012, or else it is better to wait to 2016!

The author would contend that many on this list, maybe all of them, see the chore of dislodging Barack Obama from the Presidency to be a very difficult job, no matter what is uttered publicly!

The President will have a billion dollar campaign fund; a record of major accomplishments rivaling the Great Society of Lyndon B. Johnson domestically, certainly the most since the first term of Richard Nixon, the most in FORTY YEARS, that he can be proud of; PLUS exceptional achievements in the fight against Al Qaeda and the Taliban, and general respect around the world! His record on defense and foreign policy is outstanding, with his ONLY major failure being the economy, one that he inherited and has been unable to overcome due to the total intransigence of the opposition party, which now controls the House of Representatives, and is doing ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to create jobs, build infrastructure, promote education and innovation, and will go down as the worst Congress in decades!

Barack Obama will be able to call them the “do nothing” Congress as Harry Truman did when he ran for election in 1948. The difference is that even the GOP Congress of 1947-1948, the 80th Congress, DID support the President on foreign policy initiatives, while the Republicans today ignore or dismiss accomplishments of the President in that area! So this is actually a far worse Congress, the 112th Congress, than the 80th Congress was!

So the ultimate conclusion is that the Republicans who decided not to run assume that Obama will win, and are holding their future to 2016, when it is likely MANY of the above will be running for President in a year they project as a year when the incumbent President will NOT be able to run, an open year which maximizes their opportunities for the White House!

Finally, the reception that those candidates for President who are running are receiving is NOT a good sign for any of them, that they will somehow unite the Republican Party and defeat Barack Obama in 2012! There is great discontent over the choices, and that is the reason why there has been a clamor, unsuccessful, to get others in the race. And of course, the Tea Party Movement is also destroying any chance for GOP unity, so if the Republicans want a future, they must divorce the Tea Party Movement after what will be a likely debacle in 2012, if they wish to succeed Barack Obama in the White House in the Presidential Election Of 2016!

Is Rick Perry The Savior Of The Republican Party?

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Texas Governor Rick Perry, a strong social conservative, has not been willing to enter the Republican Presidential race before now, but with the decision of Mike Pence, John Thune, Haley Barbour, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, and Donald Trump to avoid the race, and with Newt Gingrich disintegrating and Sarah Palin flirting with, but unlikely to enter the race, he is being courted to run.

Perry has been the longest serving Governor of Texas in history, having served more than ten years, after succeeding George W. Bush in December 2000.

Perry is Governor of the second largest state in population, but his position is also the weakest Governor constitutionally in the nation, although that did not hurt George W. Bush.

Perry has spoken up for the concept of secession; has flirted with religious leaders of the far right, and condemned abortion and gay rights; has a tremendous state debt which he is solving by ruthless cutting of spending, and refusing to raise taxes; and has seen his aides who went to Gingrich a few month ago decide to abandon the former Speaker and make themselves available to Perry for a Presidential run.

Perry is seen by many as a lightweight intellectually, but that is not necessarily a bad thing for the Republican Party.

Many think that if he enters the race later this month, that he will automatically become the major challenger to Mitt Romney, and surpass Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman.

He would be likely to win support away from Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Herman Cain, and Rick Santorum, and could become the surprise candidate who becomes a major threat, not only to Romney, but also to Barack Obama.

No one should underestimate his appeal to the caucus voters in Iowa and the primary voters in New Hampshire@

Tim Pawlenty Panned By Former Republican Minnesota Governor On Day Of Presidential Announcement!

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Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty announced his Presidential candidacy today in Iowa. Seen by many as having the fewest shortcomings, he has avoided major controversy by his words and actions, as compared to all other GOP candidates.

And yet, he could not fully enjoy his opening day as former Republican Governor Arne Carlson, who had supported Pawlenty for Governor, and appointed his wife to a state job, came out on Ed Schultze’s show on MSNBC tonight to criticize Pawlenty, and say the party could do a lot better for its Presidential nominee.

Carlson’s major complaint was that Pawlenty’s claim of balanced budgets in Minnesota over eight years is a fabrication, according to the former Governor.

Carlson complained that property taxes had skyrocketed, and that the state had put the burden on homeowners in an unjust way, but that Pawlenty had made it seem as if Minnesota’s state government was doing a good job, which according to Carlson, is the farthest thing from the truth.

So Pawlenty is discovering quickly that entering the Presidential race will be a long, grueling campaign, something Mitch Daniels, Haley Barbour, Mike Pence, John Thune, Mike Huckabee, and Donald Trump were unwilling to put themselves through!

The Silly Season Is Here: Republicans Look To Michele Bachmann And Rick Perry? Give Us A Break!

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With the withdrawal of Mike Huckabee and Haley Barbour, the implosion of Newt Gingrich, the fake campaign of Donald Trump, and the decision of Mike Pence and John Thune to stay out of the Republican Presidential campaign, the GOP is running scared, that they feel as if they have no roots or substantial possibility of challenging President Barack Obama in 2012.

So, grasping at straws, attention is being paid to Michele Bachmann, the loony Congresswoman from Minnesota, and Rick Perry, the secessionist oriented Governor of Texas, as people to flirt with and encourage to enter the race.

The fact is though, whether Bachmann or Perry enter the race, neither has the slightest chance to win the GOP Presidential nomination. Were either to actually win the nomination, the result would be such a landslide defeat for the Republicans, that it would match the 1964 Barry Goldwater candidacy.

As reiterated constantly by this author, the only reasonable candidates left are Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman, and Tim Pawlenty, as Mitch Daniels, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie are not going to enter the race by any estimation. When one hears Republicans act as if Obama is an easy challenge to defeat, one has to wonder at the hallucinations going on in GOP circles!

Tim Pawlenty Gets A Boost In The GOP Presidential Race

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Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty has been seen as a insignificant factor in the Republican Presidential race, having far less voter recognition than his potential major opponents–Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Haley Barbour and Rick Santorum.

But several things have occurred which improve his chances of being a serious candidate:

Congressman Mike Pence of Indiana and Senator John Thune of South Dakota, both regional Midwestern potential candidates, decided not to run for President, giving him a boost in Iowa, the first measure of party support on February 6, 2012.

Rumors are flying that Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin may not run for President, due to the lucrative positions they have with Fox News Channel, plus other money making activities for Palin.

All of the other major Presidential possibilities, and even some of the minor ones, have “skeletons in the closet”, major negatives that can hurt them, such as:

Mitt Romney–He is seen as having promoted a health care plan in Massachusetts similar to what President Obama was able to achieve nationally in 2010. Also, he is seen by many as secretly a northeastern liberal in his background, and being a Mormon hurts him with evangelical Christians. Plus he had one go around already and lost to John McCain.

Mike Huckabee–He has had one go around already, is seen as a big spender during his years as Governor of Arkansas, and may not want to give up the lucrative income he has recently enjoyed for the first time in his life. Plus he seems concerned with the costs of running for President against President Obama, who will probably have a billion dollar campaign fund.

Sarah Palin–She has not developed a real set of plans to run, may not want to give up her lucrative income to run, and is actually not running well in many polls, since she is seen as shallow, and more of a cult figure than a serious Presidential possibility.

Newt Gingrich–He has a lot of personal life scandals in his past, has not been in public office for 14 years by 2012, and is very divisive in his rhetoric, making him less appealing to many who think of him as a “flame thrower”.

Haley Barbour–He has made major blunders with his lack of understanding and miscues about the civil rights movement in his home state of Mississippi in the 1960s, plus the question exists whether someone from the deep South can appeal to the nation at large.

Rick Santorum–He has the problem of a massive Senate defeat for reelection in 2006, and his being best remembered for his “man-dog” statement in opposing gay rights and gay marriage. He is not taken very seriously as a Presidential candidate by anyone in top leadership of the GOP.

Other candidates also have major problems if they decide to run.

Jon Huntsman–He has a background as a moderate in the party, which is not a plus. Plus he was Barack Obama’s Ambassador to China, which could be harmful, and being a Mormon, as Romney is, is probably a major minus as well.

Michele Bachmann–The Congresswoman from Minnesota may appeal to the Tea Party and could be a rival of fellow Minnesotan Pawlenty, but it is hard to imagine that her loose mouth and extremist image would give her a serious chance for the nomination. Plus being a Congresswoman is a difficult challenge for the Presidency, as only one Congressman (James Garfield) ever went directly to the Presidency, and he was dead by assassination six months into his term in 1881.

Ron Paul–He has his followers, and has won the CPAC straw poll twice in a row, but to imagine a libertarian in his late 70s who has tried before for the nomination, and been ridiculed by all others in the party who have run for President, to go on to the nomination is a tremendous long shot, hard to conceive.

Donald Trump–The billionaire businessman is pretty obnoxious and a publicity seeker, and were he to run, his anti Chinese rhetoric and basic belligerence on foreign policy issues would make him a dangerous choice for the Presidency, and since he is not a lovable character personally, it is hard to imagine him going all the way to the nomination.

The above analysis does not mean that none of them can be the nominee, but by comparison , Tim Pawlenty has a real chance to emerge, based on the following factors.

He is from the heartland of the Midwest, the battleground for 2012, and with Mike Pence and John Thune out of the race, that is a boost for Pawlenty.

He first gained notice with John McCain’s campaign for President in 2008, and was on the short list for Vice President, but with McCain’s defeat, it actually was better that he did not win the VP nomination.

Pawlenty is a strong evangelical Christian, and has gained a lot of support from social conservatives and the Tea Party as a result.

He has had real executive experience as Governor of Minnesota for two terms and a total of eight years.

He has been promoted as a candidate with fewer problems, issues, and “skeletons in the closet”, by conservative George Will and MSNBC talk show host Lawrence O’Donnell, giving him, therefore, a bit of a boomlet for the Presidency.

Pawlenty comes across well on television, as a photogenic personality and well spoken, and even at times having a good sense of humor, when he said at the CPAC convention that he had no doubts of Barack Obama’s citizenship, but thought what he believed in sometimes might make one think he was from “outer space!”

This is not an endorsement by this author of Pawlenty by any means, as he strongly prefers Barack Obama to win reelection, but simply a statement that Pawlenty may be the surprise of 2012, and should not be ignored.

Having said that, the author still feels that the best candidate that the GOP could run, overall, would be Mitt Romney or Jon Huntsman, but again, Tim Pawlenty will probably be an important part of the equation at the end!

Barack Obama’s And Sarah Palin’s Effect On The Republican Presidential Race

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Here it is mid February, less than a year to the Iowa caucuses, and not one Republican has announced for President.

Instead, Indiana Congressman Mike Pence has announced that he will NOT run, and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has indicated that while he will not run in 2012, he is leaving the door open for 2016.

Why is no one announcing?

Well, it may be that many potential candidates see a race against President Obama as a difficult one, which indeed it will be. While the Republicans gained 63 seats in the House of Representatives in 2010, that is no indication that they have an edge in the Presidential race, and the fact that they control the House makes the President able to use them as a foil, and Obama is certain, eventually, to attack the Republicans on domestic policy, and to use foreign policy as a bulwark for his campaign for re-election. It should not be surprising that Jeb Bush prefers to wait to 2016 when there would be an open race without an incumbent, if one assumes Obama has the edge for 2012.

Remember that Harry Truman, Dwight D. Eisenhower and Bill Clinton won re-election despite BOTH houses being in the hands of the opposition party in the midterm election!

But also, the uncertainty about Sarah Palin, whether she will run, also muddies up the race.

Palin is looking weak in the polls, and it is hard to imagine she will give up the money making opportunities she now has to run, with the knowledge her earnings would be badly hit while she is a candidate for the White House. But she has just hired a top campaign strategist, and feels a need to react to every slight or criticism of her, including recent ones by fellow Republicans Tim Pawlenty, Rick Santorum and John Thune. Since they are not leading candidates at this point, they have decided to gamble on light criticism or teasing of Palin, but others seen as more serious candidates, including Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney, have, so far, avoided such criticism.

But Palin is the so called “800 pound elephant” in the room, and that, along with Obama’s growing strength and the feeling that he has an edge for re-election, is contributing to the fact that candidates so far are reluctant to stick their necks out and announce they are running.

Still, within the next three months, it will be necessary for candidates to announce themselves, in order to have a realistic chance to gain support and financial backing, so whether Obama looks as strong as he does now, or Palin stays out or comes into the race, the die is cast in the sense that announcement of candidacies can only be delayed so far without being seen as no longer serious contenders!

Assessment Of CPAC Winners

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There are many different ways to look at the CPAC meeting in Washington, DC this past weekend, as to who looks better or who advanced himself by his or her presentation.

It seems to this blogger that Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels and former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty came across as the best, in the sense that both should be taken more seriously after their substantive speeches.

Newt Gingrich is an intellectual heavyweight as a former professor, but while he inspired the crowd, it is hard to see him as someone who can actually overcome his many shortcomings, including being out of office for 14 years by 2012.

Mitt Romney did his usual presentation, and is probably the front runner in theory, but also has major problems ahead to win the nomination.

John Thune, who may not run, came across as a promising new face.

With Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin not at the CPAC, the others advanced somewhat just by that fact.

But it is clear the GOP race for President is wide open, and do not forget Jon Huntsman, former Ambassador to China, who is expected to run, and could have a real appeal as a centrist in a party going too far to the right for the election campaign!

The Conflict Among Conservatives And Within The Conservative Movement

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Conservatives argue that they are for smaller government, lower taxes, less regulation, freedom and liberty.

They don’t like any type of economic regulation or redistribution of wealth.

And yet when push comes to shove, they are very willing to raise taxes on the average person and redistribute wealth to the top two percent, and destroy the middle class by their policies! 🙁

They are for freedom and liberty, and yet believe in a security state which can bug and wiretap everyone through the Patriot Act, and deny people privacy as to their library borrowing and bookstore purchases! 🙁

They are very willing to interfere in people’s social lives, including denying gays the basic freedom to serve in the military and marry the person they love; deny a woman the right to control her own body, even if a pregnancy is dangerous to her health; and impose religion on the population through promotion of a sectarian Christian prayer in public schools! 🙁

Even libertarian conservatives such as Rand Paul claim to want smaller government, and yet want to outlaw abortions from conception of the fetus, which is certainly government intrusion in private lives! 🙁

Conservatism claims to believe in individual rights, and yet constantly interferes with such rights in so many ways.

Conservatives wish to destroy the social safety net which has been with us since the New Deal of the 1930s, and this would create more poverty and deprivation and redistribute wealth further to the elite rich, and they have no conscience at all in doing this!

The Conservative Political Action Conference this Thursday to Saturday will showcase many of the potential GOP Presidential candidates, many of which conflict with each other about these different, competing and contradictory strands of the conservative movement.

With one year to go to the Iowa caucuses next February 6, most of the Republican aspirants for the White House shall appear and make speeches at CPAC, including Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, John Thune, Mitch Daniels, Haley Barbour and Ron Paul.

But because of supposed scheduling conflicts, Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin are not attending, which is very odd, as if they really wanted to attend this event in Washington, DC, they would find a way!

The competition among the attendees to win the straw poll vote and to appeal to the conflicting wings of the conservative movement should be very fascinating to watch this weekend! 🙂

The Presidential Game: No One Rules It Out, Including For 2016! :)

Ronald 1 Comment

There is something about the office of the Presidency that everyone imaginable seems to think he or she might run for President, if not in 2012, then in 2016! 🙂

Based on rumor, speculation, declared interest, likely candidacy, or even hallucination, the following are possible to be on the Presidential primary and caucus ballot in 2012 or 2016 (no special order): Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Haley Barbour, Newt Gingrich, John Thune, Rick Santorum, Mitch Daniels, Jon Huntsman, Michele Bachmann, Donald Trump, Rudy Guiliani, John Bolton, Gary Johnson, Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Jim DeMint, Rick Scott, Rand Paul, Mike Pence, George Pataki, Herman Cain.

Of course, a rational person might eliminate all but six or seven of these, but seeking the Presidency is like a disease, and therefore, we are in the “silly season” right now, while President Barack Obama deals with the tough domestic and foreign policy issues, and is increasing his lead against any opponent, because he has proved he has substance and is not the ridiculous candidates that most of the above are!

Which ones are not ridiculous? In the view of the author, they are as follows, in no particular order: Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Tim Pawlenty, John Thune, Mitch Daniels, Jon Huntsman, Jeb Bush. These seven are the best of the lot, with most of the rest totally preposterous!

We shall see whether the GOP is rational or delusional in the coming year up to the primaries and caucuses!