Joe Biden

Can Joe Biden Recover From Poor First Debate Performance This Week In Detroit CNN Debate?

Ronald 8 Comments

Former Vice President Joe Biden will come under the microscope this Wednesday in Detroit, as he needs to revive his fortunes after being upended by Senator Kamala Harris in the first debate.

While he seems to have kept his lead in public opinion polls, and particularly in the state of South Carolina, with a very large African American population, Biden knows he will be attacked by Harris again, along with Cory Booker, Julian Castro, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Jay Inslee among others, also including Tulsi Gabbard and Bill de Blasio.

Biden needs to prove he can react well to attacks, as if he does not, then despite the polls at this point, his candidacy could be in rapid decline.

Is The Road To Success For Democrats An Old White Man, Or Instead A Woman, A Minority, Or A Gay Candidate?

Ronald 3 Comments

The Democratic Party is in a major quandary for 2020.

Is the road to success to nominate an old white man, such as Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Jay Inslee, or John Hickenlooper, all of whom will be in the high 70s or 80s if in office for two terms?

Or should they nominate an older white woman (Elizabeth Warren) or a younger white woman (Amy Klobuchar, Kirsten Gillibrand, Tulsi Gabbard), or a multi racial woman (Kamala Harris), or an African American male (Cory Booker), or a Latino male (Julian Castro), or a gay male (Pete Buttigieg)?

The question is what is the right formula to defeat Donald Trump in a nation where working class white men are terrified of anything other than a white man in the Oval Office!

The Worrisome Issue Of Age In The Presidential Campaign Of 2020

Ronald 1 Comment

The issue of age will rear its head in the 2020 Presidential campaign, whether one likes it or not.

We have five Presidential contenders who will be in their 70s or reach that decade while in office, and two who will reach their 80s early in the term.

The ages of these five contenders at the time of inauguration are as follows:

Bernie Sanders, 79 and four months; Joe Biden, 78 and two months; Elizabeth Warren, 71 years and seven months; Jay Inslee, 69 years and eleven months; John Hickenlooper, 68 years and eleven months.

Either Sanders or Biden would be older than Ronald Reagan was when he left office, and Sanders would be older than Donald Trump if Trump finished a second term, with Biden only three months younger than Trump would be at the end of a second term.

Warren, along with Sanders and Biden, would be the oldest first term inaugurated President, nearly a year older than Trump when he took the oath in 2017.

Inslee would be with just a few days younger than Ronald Reagan when he took the oath in 1981, with Hickenlooper just a year younger than Reagan was, so either still would be the third oldest President on Inauguration Day.

When one considers how Reagan seemed to be declining mentally in his second term, and that Trump seems to many to have mental issues with his behavior and actions, one has to wonder whether Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden reaching their 80s early in the term is not a danger in theory. Also, since Warren would be in her mid 70s at the end of the term, and Inslee the same age as Reagan when he ran in 1984, and Hickenlooper only one year younger than Reagan or Inslee, one has to be concerned about the potential for mental deterioration, let alone the danger of physical health crises.

Few world leaders historically have served into their late 70s or early 80s in a high stress position, as a chief executive. Two exceptions are Winston Churchill of Great Britain, who left power past age 81, and West German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer, who was well past 87 when he left office. Only Adenauer would be older than Sanders or Biden at the end of a second term in the Oval Office.

Of course, there have been Kings and Emperors who were in office beyond the age of 80, as with Queen Elizabeth II of Great Britain, and recently retired Japanese Emperor Akihito, but neither has had real constitutional authority over government policies.

So the issue of age cannot be ignored as a worrisome issue, sorry to say!

The Rise Of Kamala Harris

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As a result of the first Democratic Presidential debates in Miami, Florida, it is clear that the biggest beneficiary of those debates is California Senator Kamala Harris.

She has surged to number two in many polls, just behind Joe Biden, but in striking distance of the former Vice President.

Harris has been able to raise much more funding, and much more attention is being given to the charismatic Senator, often called the “female Barack Obama”, due to her mixed race ancestry, with her mother being born in India and her father in Jamaica.

Harris has a great passion and intensity, which is very appealing, and she has a delightful laugh, and her good looks make her a very attractive potential President.

If she can do well in the early caucuses and primaries, and win the California Primary on March 3, 2020 convincingly, she will be hard to stop for the Presidential nomination of the Democratic Party.

Are We Ready For Another “Revolutionary” Change, Beyond Barack Obama?

Ronald 12 Comments

Democrats are faced with a challenge that will determine the Presidential Election of 2020.

Is the nation ready for another “revolutionary” change, beyond Barack Obama?

The nation elected a mixed race African American Senator to the White House eleven years ago, something much more “revolutionary” than electing the first Catholic President John F. Kennedy in 1960.

The question is whether the nation is ready to do any of the following:

Elect the first woman President (Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Kirsten Gillibrand, Tulsi Gabbard)

Elect the first mixed race woman President (Kamala Harris)

Elect the second African American male President (Cory Booker)

Elect the first Latino President (Julian Castro)

Elect the first gay President (Pete Buttigieg)

Elect our first Jewish President (Bernie Sanders, Michael Bennet)

Elect our first Hindu President (Tulsi Gabbard), who was born in the US territory of American Samoa.

Elect our oldest first term President at inauguration (Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren)

Elect the first President who will reach 80 years of age in office (Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden)

Elect our first sitting Mayor (Pete Buttigieg, Bill de Blasio)

Elect the first sitting Congressman since James A. Garfield in 1880 (Tulsi Gabbard, Seth Moulton, Tim Ryan, Eric Swalwell)

Elect a President younger than Theodore Roosevelt or John F. Kennedy (Pete Buttigieg, Tulsi Gabbard, Eric Swalwell, Seth Moulton)

Is It Time For A New Generation Of Leadership For The Democrats?

Ronald 11 Comments

After watching both Democratic Presidential debates this week, one has to ask the question:

It is time for a new generation of leadership for the Democrats?

The Democratic Party, historically, has regularly gone for younger candidates for President than the Republicans.

Witness Franklin D. Roosevelt, age 51; Adlai Stevenson, age 52; John F. Kennedy, age 43; Lyndon B. Johnson full term, age 56; Hubert Humphrey, age 57; George McGovern, age 50; Jimmy Carter, age 52; Walter Mondale, age 56; Michael Dukakis, age 56; Bill Clinton, age 46; Al Gore, age 52; Barack Obama, age 47.

Compare this to Dwight D. Eisenhower, age 62; Gerald Ford, 1976, age 63; Ronald Reagan, age 69; George H W Bush, age 64; Bob Dole, age 73; John McCain, age 72; Mitt Romney, age 65; Donald Trump, age 70.

So nominating Bernie Sanders, age 79; Joe Biden, age 78; or Elizabeth Warren, age 71—all of whom would be the oldest first term nominated Presidential candidate—might be the wrong way to go!

Might it NOT be better to nominate, at their ages at the time of the Presidential Election of 2020?

Pete Buttigieg age 39

Tulsi Gabbard age 39

Eric Swalwell age 40

Julian Castro age 46

Beto O’Rourke age 48

Cory Booker age 51

Steve Bullock age 54

Kirsten Gillibrand age 54

Kamala Harris age 56

Amy Klobuchar age 60

The Second Night’s Democratic Debate: Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg The Stars, But Eric Swalwell And Marianne Williamson Gained Notice

Ronald 39 Comments

The second night’s Democratic Party debate has two clear winners—Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg.

But Eric Swalwell and author Marianne Williamson also impressed this author and blogger, although no one in reality would think that Williamson would have any chance to win the nomination.

Joe Biden’s dominance is no longer such, and it could be a sign of troubles ahead, as his performance was lackluster, while not eliminating him, but a lot of homework is ahead if he is to keep his lead in the polls.

Bernie Sanders came across as strong in his views, but one still has to wonder how his ideas can be seen as pragmatic and possible, were he to be elected, which seems doubtful.

The remainder of the list—John Hickenlooper, Michael Bennet, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Andrew Yang—did not come across well to this observer.

So at this point, while nothing is final, one would think the true competitors are, besides Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, the following in no special order:

Elizabeth Warren

Kamala Harris

Pete Buttigieg

Julian Castro

Amy Klobuchar

Jay Inslee

Cory Booker

Eric Swalwell

We are far from knowing who will be the nominees of the Democratic Party, however, and the people will decide in the caucuses and primaries beginning about seven months from now.

The Best Performances In The First Debate: Julian Castro, Elizabeth Warren, Jay Inslee

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Last night’s first Democratic debate saw some definite winners:

Julian Castro

Elizabeth Warren

Jay Inslee

The biggest winner was former HUD Secretary and San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, who came across very strongly in competition with fellow Texas and former Congressman Beto O’Rourke on immigration and in his overall performance. He is someone that this author and blogger has been impressed with for a long time, and realize he was on the short list for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and might have made the difference in bringing out more Latino votes, had he been on the ticket. I think he can be considered now a major player, number 6 on the list, with the likelihood that funding and poll numbers will increase dramatically.

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, the only major player in this first debate, also came across strongly, and very principled, but might have hurt herself by her moving closer to Bernie Sanders in competition for the far Left of the Democratic Party.

Washington State Governor Jay Inslee also impressed, with his strong stand on climate change, and his overall background record as an outstanding Governor, and his funding and poll numbers may also increase dramatically. And the Pacific Northwest deserves attention for the national ticket.

New Jersey Senator Cory Booker and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar also improved their image, but not to the extent of Castro and Inslee.

Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan, much more moderate, also deserves some more respect and attention, but it will not be easy for him to gain traction as much as the five mentioned above.

The remaining four–Beto O’Rourke, Tulsi Gabbard, Bill de Blasio, John Delaney—seem to be left behind as this author and blogger sees it.

Clearly, there are many different ways to look at any debate, and there will be plenty of analysis and evaluation in many different directions.

But at this point, I would say Julian Castro will soon join Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg as the top six of all.

We shall see soon whether any of the other six debating tonight join that group as a serious contender.

The Second Debate Mix: What To Expect

Ronald 19 Comments

The second Democratic Presidential debate will take place on Thursday, June 27 from 9-11 pm on NBC and MSNBC.

It includes the following ten candidates:

Joe Biden

Bernie Sanders

Pete Buttigieg

Kamala Harris

Kirsten Gillibrand

Michael Bennet

Marianne Williamson

Eric Swalwell

John Hickenlooper

Andrew Yang

The group includes the former Vice President and US Senator; four other US Senators; a member of the House of Representatives; a Mayor; a former Governor; and two independent, out of government candidates.

This debate has more of the so called “heavyweights”—Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg, Harris—with the other six candidates seen as much weaker in likelihood of long term survival.

Joe Biden must defend himself as the clear front runner, and avoid any more gaffes, after some controversial statements about his past ability to cross the aisle and work with past racial segregationists, as well as his continued habit of touching and hugging women and children, violating their personal space. He could be harmed by a poor performance, but one must remember how good he was in debates in 2008, and against Sarah Palin and Paul Ryan in Vice Presidential debates in 2008 and 2012.

Bernie Sanders will come across strongly, but has many concerned that he cannot carry the nation in the upcoming Presidential election, with the fact that he embraces the word “Socialist”, which can be abused by Trump and the Republicans against him. He will be engaged in major combat with Biden for sure, as Sanders attempts to overtake him in future polls and fundraising.

Pete Buttigieg has been involved in a major crisis as South Bend, Indiana Mayor, with the recent murder of a black man by city police, and he is under attack for the racial troubles involving the law enforcement community. He should do well in the debate, but can he overcome the massive lead of Biden and Sanders over the rest of the contenders, is the question.

Kamala Harris should come on strong as well, but will need to clarify her stand on the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which she compared months ago to the Ku Klux Klan. The assumption is that she will continue to flourish and possibly grow in support.

Some people think Marianne Williamson and Andrew Yang, outsiders who clearly have great ideas and intellect, might shine, but somehow, this author and blogger does not see it succeeding.

Of the remaining four, it seems to this author and blogger that Eric Swalwell has the best shot of survival, just a gut feeling, but that Kirsten Gillibrand, Michael Bennet, and John Hickenlooper have little chance of lasting much beyond the first couple of months of the debate season.

My gut feeling is that out of this group that Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg, Harris, Swalwell, and possibly Williamson and Yang will survive to go on for another day.

This would make the 20 candidates diminish to 12—-and one can say only possibly Steve Bullock, Montana Governor, who was not allowed in the first set of debates, might still have a shot of those few who are not in this debate, leaving Seth Moulton, Congressman from Massachusetts, and the new announced candidate, former Pennsylvania Congressman Joe Sestak, out in the cold.

So expect out of 23 candidates, 13 will make it to the future debates.

Back From Wonderful Vacation In London And Paris With My Older Son, And Ready To Resume Regular Commentary On American Politics, Government, And History

Ronald 6 Comments

I am happy to announce that I have returned from a wonderful vacation in London and Paris with my older son, and am ready to resume regular commentary on American Politics, Government, and History.

I had never traveled overseas since my younger son was Bar Mitzvahed in 1996 in Israel, but my older son has done a lot of travel in Europe, some for work purposes, and also for vacations. He wanted to treat me to an all expenses paid trip to my two favorite European nations, the United Kingdom and France, to honor me for Fathers Day, and for his 40th birthday, with him being born on that day in 1979.

We saw all of the historic and cultural sites I had always wanted to visit, and it enriched my historical and cultural knowledge, and increased the bonding I have for my older son, but with equal feelings for my younger son as well. This was a trip of just the two of us, since we had not spent much time together over the past decade since he moved to the Washington DC area, and myself continuing to reside in South Florida.

I was totally out of touch for the two weeks in regards to the news, and only now am catching up on the events, including the danger of war with Iran; the resignation of White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders; the threat to have mass deportation of undocumented immigrants by Immigration and Customs Enforcement; the usual maniacal behavior and utterances of Donald Trump; and the preparations for the first Democratic Presidential debates in Miami this coming Wednesday and Thursday, June 26-27, with Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg not having the best fortune in this past week, and Elizabeth Warren seemingly surging for now, while others are hoping for a breakthrough as a result of these two nights of debates.

I plan to comment daily on those events and trends that seem worthy of the most attention, and I am glad to invite my readers to return to a daily interaction, although while visiting Washington DC in two weeks from now for tourism and family, it is possible I might miss a day or two as a result.

Thanks, everyone, for your patience, as I took the most wonderful and enriching trip imaginable in the past two weeks.