Donald Trump Is Committing Political Suicide Every Day, As Joe Biden Lead Grows Rapidly

It is clear now that President Donald Trump is committing political suicide every day, as Joe Biden’s lead grows dramatically.

Biden’s lead had been about 6-8 points just a few weeks ago, but now it is as high as 14-16 points.

If that actually happened on November 3, and probably will not occur to that extent, Joe Biden would win in territory such as Ronald Reagan in 1984, or Theodore Roosevelt in 1904.

Trump has caused his own demise by his horrific debate performance; by his intention to destroy health care for 20 million people; by his inaction on COVID 19 all year; by his behavior when in Walter Reed Medical Center and then when he came back to the White House last night; and now rejecting any further negotiation on COVID 19 relief of tens of millions of Americans, including stimulus checks for the unemployed, help to small businesses, and aid to industries, such as airlines and restaurants, causing a downturn on the stock market today.

It is clear that Donald Trump is maniacal now on his medication, and is a danger to national security, and yet, Vice President Mike Pence and the Cabinet are unwilling to invoke the 25th Amendment, so the nation teeters and totters with no one in charge of the ship of state!

12 comments on “Donald Trump Is Committing Political Suicide Every Day, As Joe Biden Lead Grows Rapidly

  1. D October 7, 2020 3:25 am

    Ronald’s blog topic post is dated four weeks from the scheduled general election of Tuesday, November 3, 2020.

    A few days ago, with news of U.S. president Donald Trump having been diagnosed with COVID–19, “Five Thirty Eight” estimated a U.S. Popular Vote of +7.6 for a Democratic pickup of the presidency for Joe Biden.

    As of Tuesday, October 6, 2020, a few days after the news of the diagnosis for the current and 45th U.S. president, that previous “Five Thirty Eight” estimate has moved up to +9.0.

    “Real Clear Politics” also has the race for U.S. President at Democratic +9.0.

    Going from +7.6 to +9.0 is an additional carried state on the electoral map.

    An outcome of +9 would be 53 to 44 or 54 to 45 percent in the U.S. Popular Vote.

    A Democratic U.S. Popular Vote margin of +9 would be carriage of 30 or 31 states. (I previously mentioned a pattern for prevailing Democrats: Since 1960, but with exception in 1992, their winners carried +21 or +22 states in excess of their percentage-points margin in the U.S. Popular Vote.)

    This +9 is the level necessary to be able to flip and carry Texas. (A popular-vote margin of +8 may be enough to deliver Texas. A national margin of +9 would be preferable.)

    The 2016 Democrats carried 20 states, plus District of Columbia, and an originally mathematical 232 electoral votes. Here is my estimate of what would come in for the 2020 Democrats to rank between, say, Nos. 21 to 30 (* indicates 2016 Republican pickup):

    21. * Michigan (–0.22; cumulative 248 electoral votes)
    22. * Pennsylvania (–0.72; cum. 268)
    23. * Wisconsin (–0.76; cum. 278—Tipping-point state from 2016; it may repeat that here in 2020)
    24. Arizona (–3.50; cum. 289)
    25. * Florida (–1.19; cum. 318)
    — Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (–2.23; cum. 319)
    26. North Carolina (–3.66; cum. 334)
    27. Georgia (–5.10; cum. 350)
    28. * Iowa (–9.41; cum. 356)
    — * Maine’s 2nd Congressional District (–10.28; cum. 357)
    29. * Ohio (–8.07; cum. 375)
    30. Texas (–8.98; cum. 413)

    A U.S. Popular Vote margin of +4, for the Democrats, would result in carriage of those listed between Nos. 21 to 26. A national margin of +5 to +8 (or +9) delivers pickups of those listed between Nos. 27 to 30.

    When it comes time, here at “The Progressive Professor,” to give one’s Final Prediction, you can already get a good sense of my take on the race for U.S. President.

    For the U.S. Senate, I was thinking months ago the tipping-point state would be Georgia. (It has both a regular and a special election scheduled here in 2020.) I no longer have the estimate. Georgia, due to how it runs general elections, is a bit tricky. So, I have changed my estimate. I now think the tipping-point state, to determine which party will have majority control of the U.S. Senate, will be Iowa.

    For the 2020 Democrats, their path to winning a new majority-control pickup of the U.S. Senate (starting with their caucus of 47) are as follows (* indicates 2014 Republican pickup):

    — Party-Held Loss —
    (46. Alabama—Due to its general, heavily-aligned Republican alignment, Republican challenger Tommy Tuberville will unseat Democratic incumbent Doug Jones.)

    — Counter Pickups —
    47. * Colorado—Democratic challenger John Hickenlooper unseating Republican incumbent Cory Gardner in a state that is now realigned to the Democrats.
    48. Arizona (special)—Democratic challenger Mark Kelly unseating the interim Republican incumbent Martha McSally (appointed to this seat, previously held by John McCain, by Republican governor Doug Ducey).
    49. Maine—Democratic challenger Sara Gideon unseating four-term Republican U.S. senator Susan Collins.
    50. * North Carolina—Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham unseating Republican incumbent Thom Tillis (who was recently diagnosed with COVID–19).
    51. * Iowa—The tipping-point state to determine party control of the upper chamber of Congress with Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield unseating Republican incumbent Joni Ernst.
    52–56. If any on this level gets reached—with 2020 U.S. Senate Democratic pickups—it would involve a combination of Georgia (regular and/or special), Montana, South Carolina, and Texas.

    Nos. 50 and 51 are critically important not only electorally but also historically. I am referring to their track records of delivering same-party outcomes for U.S. President and U.S. Senate. North Carolina has been on this pattern since 1972. Iowa has been on this pattern since 1996.

    A person wanting a 2020 Democratic majority-control pickup of the U.S. Senate, to go along with U.S. President, should recognize the most pivotal state is Iowa. They will want Iowa to be won in Democratic pickups by Joe Biden and Theresa Greenfield via the unseatings of Republican incumbents Donald Trump and Joni Ernst.

    Regarding all those seats on the list: Yes—for all of them to switch from the Republican to the Democratic column may seem like a lot. Keep in mind: The last time both U.S. President and U.S. Senate delivered party switches, in the same year, was 1980. Republican presidential pickup winner Ronald Reagan won a net gain of +17 states. The 1980 Republican U.S. Senate won a net gain of +12 seats. (They went from a minority 41 to a majority 53.) Since not all states are on the schedule, that was a terrific showing for the 1980 Republicans. In the 2008 Democratic presidential pickup year, for Barack Obama, the 44th U.S. president won a net gain of +9 states (as well as Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District). Following their 2006 midterms wave (majority pickups for U.S. House, U.S. Senate, and U.S. Governors), the 2008 U.S. Senate Democrats won a net gain of +8 seats. (They went from majorities of 51 to 59 in their caucus.) In other words: In a strong election wave, in a presidential year, sometimes the numbers of pickups for the opposition party—for U.S. President and U.S. Senate—run fairly close to each other. A net gain of +9 or +10 states, for U.S. President, along with a net gain of around +8, for U.S. Senate, would not be an unreasonable prediction for the 2020 Democrats.

  2. Ronald October 7, 2020 6:36 am

    Thanks, D, once again, for your perceptive and detailed look at what is likely to happen in the upcoming Presidential and Congressional Elections of 2020.

    I will update my projection by the end of October.

  3. Paul Doyle October 7, 2020 8:46 am

    After November 3rd, Donald John Trump will be picked time Star in a new Hollywood film, entitled, “Dr. Jerkyl and Mr. Hide”.

    The plot centers around a President who is exposed to a new formula of antibodies. He acts as Dr. Jerkyl in performing his duties and then, at night he goes to his Twitter laboratory to hide away from his Constitutional responsibilities.

    Release of the movie is scheduled for April 1st- All Fools Day. Advanced tickets for diehards can be pre-purchased on Fan-dingo with the special code of VOTER FRAUD.

  4. Ronald October 7, 2020 8:48 am

    HAHA, Paul Doyle, I have missed you on here, and hope you will write more often! LOL 🙂

  5. Rustbelt Democrat October 7, 2020 12:11 pm

    Best one yet from the Lincoln Project! 🙂

  6. Princess Leia October 7, 2020 5:11 pm

    Agreed! That ad captures Trump’s carelessness and callousness and leaves you laughing. A good laugh. A cathartic laugh.

  7. Former Republican October 7, 2020 5:18 pm

    Best part… the soft coughing at the very end. That was a genius touch.

  8. Former Republican October 7, 2020 5:19 pm

    James Corden got in the act, too..

  9. D October 7, 2020 10:42 pm


    It is time to start looking to South Carolina as State No. 31 for the 2020 Democrats.

    A recent “Fox News” report has the U.S. Popular Vote margin as Democratic +10.

    As of Wednesday, October 7, 2020, “Real Clear Politics” has the national race as Democratic +9.7. “Five Thirty Eight” has it Democratic +9.5.

    Within the last week, a Quinnipiac report had a poll of Donald Trump leading Joe Biden by only +1 in South Carolina. (That was a little questionable; but, at the same time, not many polls have been reported on South Carolina. I think the state needs to be polled even more.)

    “Cook Political Report” now rates the South Carolina U.S. Senate race as a Tossup.

    “Real Clear Politics” also rates it as a Tossup.

    Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham, first elected in 2002, is vulnerable to Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison.

    Here is a source:

    From “Cook Political Report”:

    “There has been no more surprising race on the Senate map than South Carolina. Even early this year, it looked like Sen. Lindsey Graham would cruise to re-election. Instead, the Republican incumbent finds himself in a tied race in both public and private surveys with challenger Jaime Harrison, who has proven to be perhaps Democrats’ best recruit and a fundraising behemoth.”

    The 2020 margins for the South Carolina races for U.S. President and U.S. Senate—for each of the two major political parties—are likely within close proximity to each other. (In other words: I don’t think Jaime Harrison would perform more than five points above Joe Biden. That happens with a lot of states which also have a scheduled U.S. Senate election along with U.S. President.)

    In 2016, South Carolina gave Donald Trump a margin of +14.27 percentage points. He lost in the U.S. Popular Vote by –2.09. But that was an abnormal voting pattern. (You don’t go from your party’s –3.86 margin, from 2012, win a pickup of +6 states and a congressional district in New England, and move up to only –2.09.) A 2016 Trump’s national margin, on the positive side, would have been an estimated +2.15 to +2.64. So, South Carolina was more in line having performed +11 or +12 points more Republican than the nation (with respect to adjusted margin).

    South Carolina has carried the same in United States presidential elections as Texas since 1972. From 1972 to 2016, that was a period of 44 years and 12 consecutive election cycles. (North Carolina voted the same in all with exception of 2008.) Texas was the 2016 Democrats’ No. 29 best state. South Carolina was No. 31. (North Carolina was No. 26. So, there isn’t a significant difference in rank with the highest and lowest of the three states.) Since 1992, South Carolina and Texas have been usually no more than five or five-and-a-half points in margins spread. (Sometimes, they’re even closer. And South Carolina was bluer than Texas from 2000 to 2012.)

    A national 10-point lead, for the 2020 Democrats, and based on their electoral pattern since 1960, would suggest carriage of 31 or 32 states.

    Since 1992, the average number of states carried by U.S. presidential winners was 29 with the range between 26 and 32.

    We may be in for more polls showing further movement away from Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump, and toward Democratic challenger and nominee Joe Biden, especially following Trump’s COVID–19 diagnosis. (Perhaps.) I would not be surprised if more polls come to light with additional states emerging as questionable for whether they end up 2020 Republican holds. (Meaning, they become vulnerable.)

    My estimation of what the 2020 Democrats’s Nos. 21 to 30 best would be are: Michigan; Pennsylvania; Wisconsin; Arizona; Florida; [Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District]; North Carolina; Georgia; Iowa; [Maine’s 2nd Congressional District]; Ohio; and Texas.

    Looking past those 30, the 2020 Democrats’ No. 31 may very well be South Carolina. (No. 32 would be either Alaska, as it was in 2016, or Montana, No. 38 in 2016 but moving up due especially to its U.S. Senate race.) So, with less than 28 days left until Election Day, it is possible that this can get even more interesting.

  10. Ronald October 7, 2020 10:56 pm

    D, I agree that South Carolina could go to the Democrats, both the Senate race and Joe Biden!

    I projected on April 30, 32 states, including Montana but also Kansas, but not South Carolina. So we shall see what happens!

  11. Princess Leia October 8, 2020 9:10 am

    Debate next week is going to be virtual. Trump doesn’t want to participate.

  12. Princess Leia October 8, 2020 1:51 pm

    Now Trump wants to have the debates moved to October 22 and October 29.

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