Former Vice President Joe Biden is now, officially, the Democratic Presidential nominee, with the announced withdrawal of Bernie Sanders.
But Trump supporters and far left whackos are attacking him as having mental issues that make him incompetent to be President.
Has anyone paid attention lately to the mental incompetence of Donald Trump?
Yes, Joe Biden has some lapses at times, but he is backed up by a wife who has a brain and commitment, unlike Melania Trump!
He will do just fine in the Oval Office, by having top advisers who have principles and beliefs that are far different than the crooked, corrupt, incompetent people around Donald Trump.
He will have a top notch Vice Presidential running mate, who if necessity requires it, will be fully competent and qualified to take over the Presidency, much more so than religious extremist and right winger Mike Pence!
No one expects perfection, but Joe Biden leads a united Democratic Party, more than it has been since 2012, and many Republicans and conservatives, including those in the Lincoln Project, are fully backing him, as will many Independents.
Donald Trump is clearly seen as an existential threat to the nation and the world, and the thought that he might win a second term is horrifying!
Monday, April 20, 2020—I am anticipating Ronald may come up with a blog topic on or around Sunday, May 3, 2020 to note, by that point, that we are six months from the scheduled general election of Tuesday, November 3, 2020. But, what I want to mention here is something that could slip my mind to post once we get into early-May. (I don’t know for certain.) So, I may as well post this now.
“Politico†has reports on the 2020 Democrats possibly in position to retain the U.S. House with comparable or even better numbers than they had when they flipped the lower chamber of Congress in the midterm elections of 2018. (Link: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/19/house-elections-cash-rich-democrats-tighten-grip-194570.)
“Politico†also has a report on the 2020 Democrats—feeling good about their prospects of winning over the White House (via the unseating of Republican incumbent Donald Trump)—having the potential to also win a Democratic majority-control pickup of the U.S. Senate. (Link: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/20/democrats-momentum-senate-majority-in-play-194415.)
The last year on record a party flipped the White House and the U.S. Senate—and did so via the unseating of an incumbent president—was with Ronald Reagan and the Republicans and the unseating of Democratic incumbent Jimmy Carter in 1980. Before that was with Franklin Roosevelt and the Democrats and the unseating of Republican incumbent Herbert Hoover in 1932. So, this has happened just twice within the last 100 years.
Looking at this from the 2020 Republican side and incumbent Donald Trump: Since the 17th Amendment of the 1910s, there has been no occurrence of a president who won a second term and managed to flip the U.S. House—which his party lost in Year #02 of his presidency—back to the incumbent’s party. Harry Truman assumed the presidency after the death of Franklin Roosevelt in 1945, and his Democratic Party lost both houses of Congress to the Republicans in the midterm elections of 1946 before winning them back in 1948. But, Truman won a full-term election to the presidency of the United States in 1948. There were three applicable incumbent presidents—each re-elected—whose party lost at least the U.S. House in Year #02: Dwight Eisenhower, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama. None of them were able to flip the U.S. House back to their party. So, the history for what is suggested with the 2020 Republicans—whether or not Trump wins re-election—the U.S. House will likely get retained by the Democratic Party.
I also want to note something I hadn’t previously observed.
Since the year 2000—when the Republicans won in a United States presidential election the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House for the first time in their party’s history—the political party which won the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House also prevailed for U.S. President.
This has been the case with the last five election cycles of 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016.
Here were the results:
ELECTION 2000
• U.S. President: (R–0.51)—Pickup (George W. Bush)
• U.S. House: R+0.41
• Spread: 0.92
ELECTION 2004
• U.S. President: R+2.46
• U.S. House: R+2.64
• Spread: 0.18
ELECTION 2008
• U.S. President: D+7.26—Pickup (Barack Obama)
• U.S. House: D+10.60
• Spread: 3.34
ELECTION 2012
• U.S. President: D+3.86
• U.S. House: D+1.16
• Spread: 2.70
ELECTION 2016
• U.S. President: (R–2.09)—Pickup (Donald Trump)
• U.S. House: R+1.08
• Spread: 3.17
The U.S. Popular Vote margins spreads—U.S. President vs. U.S. House—over those five election cycles have been 3.34 points or tighter with the average spread 1.96. So, this may not be too surprising given that there are 435 congressional districts and a presidential winner’s whole-number percentage in the U.S. Popular Vote tends to be reflected with their U.S. Popular Vote in the U.S. House. Unlike the U.S. Senate, the full membership of the U.S. House is on the schedule every two years, covering both midterm and leap years. (Also worth keeping in mind: Had 2000 and 2016 Republican pickup winners George W. Bush and Donald Trump won likewise Republican pickups of the U.S. Popular Vote, their margins would have been an estimated +2. Since at least 1932, there tends to be a net gain of +1 to +1.5 states with each percentage point nationally shifted in the direction of a pickup winning Republican or Democrat. So, 2000 Bush and 2016 Trump should have had, under normal and historical pattern, that suggested popular-vote margin of +2.)
Encouragement for those who want the 2020 Democrats to flip the presidency—which would include unseating Republican incumbent Donald Trump—is that the party is leading the polls on “2020 Generic Congressional Vote.â€
According to “Real Clear Politics,†effective April 14, 2020, the U.S. House is an aggregated polling margin that is Democratic +8.2. (Link: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2020_generic_congressional_vote-6722.html.)
In the 2018 midterm elections, when Democrats won a majority pickup of the U.S. House, they prevailed with a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +8.56. So, the 2018-to-2020 Democrats, for U.S. House, appears to be on par with where they finished two years ago.
Looking at this from the 2020 Republican side, you want the Democrats to decline—for Republicans to reach a point in which they start polling ahead of the Democrats with the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House—and, in case a pattern gets broken, you don’t want the Democrats finishing with more than, say, D+3. You want a result like that for what it means for an incumbent party which is trying to hold the presidency. You want this before you can even think of your party flipping back the U.S. House (which, frankly, would probably necessitate a Republican popular-vote margin of at least +5; which would be a 13- to 14-point national shift from 2018; and none of the polling suggests that to be feasible).
Thanks so much, D, again, for your insightful, and perceptive comments, and we all appreciate it.
I do intend to write about May 3 about six months to go, as you figured, haha, lol.
But I am also writing today in a short while about how this election in 2020 is one of the five most significant national elections in American history, as I see it, so I will hope you will comment on that when you have a chance to read it very soon!
Sanders and Biden are creating six task forces — on the economy, education, criminal justice, immigration, climate change and health care — as a core part of Biden’s outreach to the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/sanders-biden-policy-task-forces-experts_n_5e9d909fc5b6afc51fb157e0