Based on the percentages who voted for Donald Trump in the Presidential Election of 2016, the following is the list that will live and die with Donald Trump next year:
West Virginia 68 percent
Wyoming 67 percent
Oklahoma 65 percent
Nebraska 64 percent
North Dakota 63 percent
South Dakota 62 percent
Alabama 62 percent
Kentucky 62 percent
Arkansas 61 percent
Tennessee 61 percent
Idaho 59 percent
Louisiana 58 percent
Mississippi 58 percent
Alaska 57 percent
Kansas 57 percent
Indiana 57 percent
Missouri 57 percent
Montana 56 percent
South Carolina 55 percent
Utah is a special case, a Mormon dominated state, where Evan McMullin, the former CIA operative, a conservative, was able to win 22 percent of the vote, which when added to Donald Trump’s total (45 percent), meant more than 68 percent were against Democrat Hillary Clinton.
So if one adds these 20 states together, they add up to ONLY 125 electoral votes, meaning if Trump only won these 20 states, the Electoral College would be 413 for the Democratic Presidential nominee, a true landslide defeat for Donald Trump!
Note that these 20 states include 8 in the South; 5 in the Great Plains; 2 in the Midwest; and 5 in the West.
Here is a reminder of where all 50 states and District of Columbia ranked, with the Electoral College, in the United States presidential election of 2016. They are listed with regard for reach. (Those cumulative electoral votes, with a minus sign, are just to indicate where a state came in even for a candidate who did not carry it.) Since this is about states Ronald estimates are guaranteed to carry for a 2020 Donald Trump (really ones which were carried by +10 or better), I list—but without including percentage-points margins—all from 2016: In descending order for Republican pickup winner Donald Trump; followed by in ascending order for losing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. (* for 2016 Republican pickups.)
***** DONALD TRUMP (R–New York) — Pickup! *****
— Nebraska #03 (cumulative electoral votes: 01; –538)
01 (50). Wyoming (cum. 04; –537)
02 (49). West Virginia (cum. 09; –534)
03 (48). Oklahoma (cum. 16; –529)
04 (47). North Dakota (cum. 19; –522)
05 (46). Idaho (cum. 23; –519)
06 (45). Kentucky (cum. 31; –515)
07 (44). South Dakota (cum. 34; –507)
08 (43). Alabama (cum. 43; –504)
09 (42). Arkansas (cum. 49; –495)
10 (41). Tennessee (cum. 60; –489)
11 (40). Nebraska [statewide] (cum. 62; –478)
— Nebraska #01 (cum. 63; –476)
12 (39). Kansas (cum. 69; –475)
13 (38). Montana (cum. 72; –469)
14 (37). Louisiana (cum. 80; –466)
15 (36). Indiana (cum. 91; –458)
16 (35). Missouri (cum. 101; –447)
17 (34). Utah (cum. 107; –437)
18 (33). Mississippi (cum. 113; –431)
19 (32). Alaska (cum. 116; –425)
20 (31). South Carolina (cum. 125; –422)
— * Maine #02 (cum. 126; –413)
21 (30). * Iowa (cum. 132; –412)
22 (29). Texas (cum. 170; –406)
23 (28). * Ohio (cum. 188; –368)
24 (27). Georgia (cum. 204; –350)
25 (26). North Carolina (cum. 219; –334)
26 (25). Arizona (cum. 230; –319)
— Nebraska #02 (cum. 231; –308)
27 (24). * Florida (cum. 260; –307)
28 (23). * Wisconsin (cum. 270; –278)—Tipping Point State
29 (22). * Pennsylvania (cum. 290; –268)
30 (21). * Michigan (cum. 306; –248)
***** HILLARY CLINTON (D–New York) *****
20 (31). New Hampshire (cum. 232; –310)
19 (32). Minnesota (cum. 228; –320)
18 (33). Nevada (cum. 218; –326)
17 (34). Maine [statewide] (cum. 212; –328)
16 (35). Colorado (cum. 210; –337)
15 (36). Virginia (cum. 201; –350)
14 (37). New Mexico (cum. 188; –355)
13 (38). Oregon (cum. 183; –362)
12 (39). Delaware (cum. 176); –365)
11 (40). Connecticut (cum. 173; –372)
10 (41). New Jersey (cum. 166; –386)
— Maine #01 (cum. 152; –387)
09 (42). Rhode Island (cum. 151; –391)
08 (43). Washington (cum. 147; –403)
07 (44). Illinois (cum. 135; –423)
06 (45). New York (cum. 115; –452)
05 (46). Vermont (cum. 86; –455)
04 (47). Maryland (cum. 83; –465)
03 (48). Massachusetts (cum. 73; –476)
02 (49). California (cum. 62; –531)
01 (50). Hawaii (cum. 07; –535)
— District of Columbia (cumulative electoral votes: 03; –538)
Thanks, D, once again! Much appreciated!
Republicans are planning to cancel primaries in several states so Trump won’t be challenged.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/06/politics/republican-primaries-donald-trump/index.html
Trump’s team is scared by Elizabeth Warren’s rise in the polls.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/9/5/1883715/-Team-Trump-fretting-over-Warren-s-rise-after-his-best-shot-at-her-fell-flat