Donald Trump Reversal A Political Ploy As Republicans Run Scared For November Elections

Donald Trump’s reversal on the issue of separating asylum seekers at the border from their children is not based on principle, but on hysteria in Republican ranks on the upcoming midterm elections. They are about to suffer in four and a half months the biggest repudiation in modern history. And if that does not happen, God help the United States of America, as we descend into Fascist dictatorship!

And it will be illegal to incarcerate parents and children together after a 20 day period, and there is no answer as to how to bring over 2,300 children separated from their parents in the past two months back to normalcy.

It is feared that many of these children will never be reunited with their moms and dads, and the psychological damage long term done to these children, some of them infants and toddlers, but even those who are older, including preteens and teenagers, is incalculable.

What Trump and Jeff Sessions, Stephen Miller, Kirstjen Nielson, John Kelly, and Sarah Huckabee Sanders have done is against human rights and international law, and is a war crime that should lead to the arrest, trial, and incarceration of all involved for a life term.

This is American Fascism at its worst, and all those who support such policies, including Fox News Channel, and its despicable anchors, including Sean Hannity, Tucker Carlson, and Laura Ingraham, are to be condemned, and should be boycotted by all advertisers, therefore putting them out of business.

Already, airlines and many other corporations have made clear they do not want to have anything to do with the whole corrupt, immoral, unethical, and illegal actions of the Trump government.

This disaster insures that Donald Trump will rank at the very bottom of all Presidents in future assessments by scholars and experts.

And as far as the Republican loyalists among voters, let us take their children from them without just cause, and see how they react.

These ignorant, uneducated, prejudiced, biased, despicable excuses for human beings should not be catered to, anymore than those who supported Benito Mussolini in Fascist Italy or Adolf Hitler in Nazi Germany or Joseph Stalin in the Soviet Union.

The cancer of the Trump Presidency is on the road to being excised, and the Trump Family, father, children, and son in law, need to be held accountable, along with their henchmen mentioned above, and pay for their crimes against mothers, fathers, and children trying to escape certain violence and death from Central America, and being treated as if they are criminals, for wanting the same opportunities as generations of immigrants in the past, who saw the Statue of Liberty as the image of American welcome to those oppressed!

17 comments on “Donald Trump Reversal A Political Ploy As Republicans Run Scared For November Elections

  1. D June 22, 2018 5:26 am

    Given the title of Ronald’s blog entry is “Donald Trump Reversal A Political Ploy As Republicans Run Scared For November Elections,” this gives me an appropriate opportunity to share the following (from my own research):

    * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


    While it is known that the Democratic Party needs to flip 25 Republican-held seats to win a 2018 Democratic majority-control pickup of the U.S. House, what would be helpful is to understand how that would be achieved. It is not just the number “25” which is important. The number “7” is necessary. And it should be understood.

    I am referring to the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. House, and that the Democrats have to hit a particular number that is sufficient in yielding Republican-to-Democratic pickups which turn over a new majority.

    In 2016, the Republicans, in a year in which they flipped the presidency specifically with Donald Trump, won the U.S. House by +1.08 percentage points. (It was the Republicans at 49.11 to the Democrats at 48.03 percent. The 2014 Republicans, in a midterm year in which they flipped majority control of the U.S. Senate, won the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House by a larger margin than what they received in 2016. That is why the 2016 outcome, for U.S. House, saw the overall seat gains go to the Democrats despite the presidency having flipped Republican.)

    I took a look at past U.S. House-flipping election cycles which occurred after the 17th Amendment of the 1910s. The 17th Amendment, allowing for U.S. Senators to be directly elected by the states’s voters, first affected the midterm elections of 1914. The period of 1914 to 2014 are 100 years’ worth of midterm election cycles which numbered 26. The White House opposition party won the overall congressional seat gains in 23.

    The midterm elections in which the U.S. House flipped were 1930, 1946, 1954, 1994, 2006, and 2010. The presidential elections in which the U.S. House flipped—and to the political party which won the presidency—were 1948 and 1952. (Pattern: In the presidential years which saw one or both houses of Congress switch party control, the applicable pickups went to the party which also won the presidency. This was also true with the U.S. Senate majority-control pickups from 1932, 1948, 1952, and 1980. The midterm election cycles are when the White House opposition party will tend to win their majority-control pickups of one or both houses of Congress.)

    * * * * * * Past Performances * * * * * *

    I will note the margins won in those elections, for U.S. Popular Vote (for U.S. House); the national margins shifted from the previous election cycle; and the numbers of switched seats. From these pickups, I was able to determine the average number of percentage points nationally shifted that brought those results.

    • 1930 (Democratic pickup off Republican president Herbert Hoover): No information available on U.S. Popular Vote (from (Republicans, as of Election Night 1930, held on by one seat the U.S. House. Special elections followed which made the prevailing Democrats become the new majority as the next Congress commenced.)
    • 1946 (Republican pickup off Democratic president Harry Truman): Republican [R] +11.5. (Shift, from 1944: R+16.2.) Seats gained: R+55. (Average percentage points nationally shifted for each seat gained: R+3.39.)
    • 1948 (Democratic pickup with full-term election for Democratic president Harry Truman): Democratic [D] +7.2. (Shift, from 1946: D+18.7.) Seats gained: D+75. (Average percentage points nationally shifted for each seat gained: D+4.01.)
    • 1952 (Republican pickup with Republican presidential pickup winner Dwight Eisenhower): This was a bad sampling which will not be averaged here. (Summary: The 1950 Democrats won the U.S. Popular Vote by +0.7 percentage points. The 1952 U.S. House Republicans shifted the national popular-vote margin gain by just +0.27, allowing the Democrats to hold the 1952 U.S. Popular Vote by +0.43, but the Republicans flipped 22 Democratic-held U.S. House seats along with that party’s pickup of the presidency. When Dwight Eisenhower won his Republican pickup of the U.S. Popular Vote, he shifted +15.33 points in order to win his popular-vote pickup with a margin of +10.85. The Democrats’ margins, for U.S. House, were attributed to their held seats in the south, at which time that region was still aligned to their party. In fact, the only non-southern states, of a total nine, carried by losing Democratic presidential nominee Adlai Stevenson were border states Kentucky and West Virginia.)
    • 1954 (Democratic pickup off Republican president Dwight Eisenhower): Democratic +5.51. (Shift, from 1952: D+5.08.) Seats gained: D+19. (Average percentage points nationally shifted for each seat gained: D+3.74.)
    • 1994 (Republican pickup off Democratic president Bill Clinton): Republican +7.04. (Shift, from 1992: R+12.03.) Seats gained: R+54. (Average percentage points nationally shifted for each seat gained: R+4.48.)
    • 2006 (Democratic pickup off Republican president George W. Bush): Democratic +8.01 (Shift, from 2004: D+11.37.) Seats gained: D+31. (Average percentage points nationally shifted for each seat gained: D+2.72.)
    • 2010 (Republican pickup off Democratic president Barack Obama): Republican +6.73. (Shift, from 2008: R+17.33.) Seats gained: R+63. (Average percentage points nationally shifted for each seat gained: R+3.63.)

    * * * * * * Averages * * * * * *

    The above elections yielded an average of +3.66 percentage points shifted for each U.S. House seat gained.

    Here is a guide (going by +3.66 percentage points nationally shifted with each seat gain) that shows how many seats would emerge as 2018 Democratic pickups:

    The National Margin (after –01.08) = Yielded Pickups (increments +xx.08 x 3.66 avg.)
    • D+0 = +3 [seat gains]
    • D+1 = +4 to +7
    • D+2 = +8 to +11
    • D+3 = +12 to +14
    • D+4 = +15 to +18
    • D+5 = +19 to +22
    • D+6 = +23 to +25
    • D+7 = +26 to +29
    • D+8 = +30 to +33
    • D+9 = +34 to +36
    • D+10 = +37 to +40
    • D+11 = +41 to +44
    • D+12 = +45 to +47
    • D+13 = +48 to +51
    • D+14 = +52 to +55
    • D+15 = +56 to +58
    • D+16 = +59 to +62
    • D+17 = +63 to +66
    • D+18 = +67 to +69
    • D+19 = +70 to +73
    • D+20 = +74 to +77

    Now, if you want, you can eliminate 1948, because that year was the only applied election that was not a midterm election. You can take that +4.01 average from 1948 and subtract. This would mean a cumulative 17.96 (down from 21.97). After that, divide that by 5 (down from 6) examples. This would yield an average of +3.59 percentage points nationally shifted for each U.S. House seat gain.

    Here is a guide (going by +3.59 percentage points nationally shifted with each seat gain) that shows how many seats would emerge as 2018 Democratic pickups:

    The National Margin (after –01.08) = Yielded Pickups (increments +xx.08 x 3.59 avg.)
    • D+0 = +3 [seat gains]
    • D+1 = +4 to +7
    • D+2 = +8 to +11
    • D+3 = +12 to +14
    • D+4 = +15 to +18
    • D+5 = +19 to +21
    • D+6 = +22 to +25
    • D+7 = +26 to +29
    • D+8 = +30 to +32
    • D+9 = +33 to +36
    • D+10 = +37 to +39
    • D+11 = +40 to +43
    • D+12 = +44 to +46
    • D+13 = +47 to +50
    • D+14 = +51 to +54
    • D+15 = +55 to +57
    • D+16 = +58 to +61
    • D+17 = +62 to +64
    • D+18 = +65 to +68
    • D+19 = +69 to +72
    • D+20 = +73 to +75

    * * * * * * Conclusion * * * * * *

    I recently came across this 2010 report from Gallup: . It reports the historical average number of U.S. House seat flips [midterm elections], on the watch of an incumbent president whose job approval was below 50 percent, was +36. Based on the above lists, a 2018 national shift of +10, to win over the U.S. Popular Vote by +9, would get the Democrats to reach that +36.

    From all my research, I cannot guarantee these numbers taken from past performances will be what would play out—that is, should the Democrats flip the U.S. House—come November 6, 2018. But, if 2018 conforms to historical pattern, then one can figure that every nationally shifted percentage point will yield +3 or +4 seat gains for the Democrats. (Real Clear Politics, with its aggregation of several polls, shows Democrats are leading in all cases: . But, this whole premise would be applicable if we facing an opposite Republican-vs.-Democratic scenario.)

    I am figuring a national margin of +6 could be enough for the Democrats. But, I think +6 is so tossup it would be cutting it too close. I feel certain +5 or less would not be enough for the 2018 Democrats to flip the U.S. House. So, if I worked for the Democratic Party, I would look at a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +7 being necessary.

    When you compare those scenario lists, you can see why I conclude the 2018 Democrats, in their attempt to win over a new majority for the U.S. House, will need a national shift of +8 and a Democratic pickup of the U.S. Popular Vote with a national margin of +7.

  2. Ronald June 22, 2018 8:10 am

    WOW, what an analysis, D, as usual from you! 🙂

    Thanks so much!

  3. Pragmatic Progressive June 22, 2018 11:14 am

    Latest news is that Trump is calling families grieving over these separations as being “phony”.

    Somebody has got to do something about him!

  4. Rational Lefty June 22, 2018 12:55 pm

    Earlier this week, MSNBC was showing some evangelical leaders talking about Trump, praising him like he’s some kind of messiah. Made me sick!

  5. Princess Leia June 22, 2018 1:22 pm

    Those evangelicals praising Trump are faux Christians!

  6. Princess Leia June 22, 2018 4:47 pm

    The DNC Is Stepping up to Help Mobilize a Blue Wave

    Democratic National Committee launched the largest and most comprehensive effort ever undertaken by the party to motivate minority voters in a midterm election year.

    * $1.2 million split across 16 state parties to hire community organizers targeting groups who have been historically unlikely to vote — including black, Latino, Asian, millennial and rural voters.

    * a new database that seeks to identify 25 million likely Democratic voters who are currently unregistered and seemingly removed from the political process.

    * will focus on mobilizing minority communities in Midwestern urban centers such as Milwaukee, Detroit and St. Louis, which have sizable black populations. Latino and Asian minority communities will be the primary targets of organizing in the West and Southwest, and in the New England states of Maine and New Hampshire, Democrats will prioritize millennial voters.

    * The organizers, who will report to the local state party they are assigned to, will be tasked with developing strategies to increase turnout and voter engagement.

    * The party is also planning a nationwide advertising buy aimed at raising awareness of the midterm elections among “sporadic voters” nationwide, party aides said.

    The DNC can’t do voter mobilization all an their own. They need partners. If this effort expands those partnerships and provides people on the ground with the tools and data they need to do the job, the party will have done its job to help mobilize a blue wave this November.

  7. Pragmatic Progressive June 24, 2018 7:49 pm

    I think the restaurant incident is a slippery slope.

  8. Pragmatic Progressive June 26, 2018 12:12 pm

    I second what Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schummer said about the civility issue. There are better ways of focusing our upset.

  9. Pragmatic Progressive June 27, 2018 12:33 pm

    Bernie Sanders was on MSNBC at lunchtime today, saying the same as Pelosi and Schummer are saying, that there are better ways of focusing our upset with the Trump administration, such as encouraging people to get out and vote.

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