In the midst of the Donald Trump Presidency disaster in the making, the opposition Democrats are, seemingly, working very hard to destroy any chance for the party to recover from the 2016 election, and move on to hoped for gaining of the US House of Representatives in the midterm elections of 2018, and long range possibility of gaining the US Senate majority as well.
Division and post election accusations between the Hillary Clinton camp and the Bernie Sanders camp over the Democratic National Committee handling of the campaign only helps Donald Trump and the Republican Party.
Donna Brazile, who headed the DNC in the last months of the 2016 campaign, is publishing a book this week, which with its accusations that the Clinton campaign helped to fix her nomination, and discussion that Brazile considered replacing Clinton with Joe Biden in September, after she had a bout with pneumonia, only causes more disarray.
The Democrats have no real leader now, as House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer are not inspiring at all, and Pelosi in particular needs to step aside, and allow younger Democrats to move up to power.
As this blogger has said before, while he admires Joe Biden, there is a need for a new generation of leadership running for the Presidency in the future, as well as moving up in House of Representatives leadership.
So we need to stop shoring up Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer and James Clyburn in the House, and we need to look to others to run for President than Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and even Elizabeth Warren, all over 70 as the House leaders are also.
People in their 40s, 50 and early 60s are the future, just as when we had John F. Kennedy at age 43 in 1960, Jimmy Carter at age 52 in 1976, Bill Clinton at age 46 in 1992, and Barack Obama at age 47 in 2008!
Part of the discord is due to Russian bots trying to stir up division and they are at it again in Virginia.
http://bluevirginia.us/2017/11/russian-bots-hot-heavy-in-virginia-election
Blogs I read recommend reliable news sources to their readers – such as the listing the Professor has here – instead of YouTube, Facebook, or Twitter. I very much agree with that.
I am going to offer more than one response to this blog entry from Ronald.
What I want to first present is one word that is worthy of thought.
That word is…
Realignment.
My word is….Unity. Democrats need to get their act together and be united, not divided.
I second that Rustbelt. We’re fighting the rise of literal fascism in the United States – we can’t waste our time and energy on infighting!
Precisely, Leia! As the Professor’s previous post says, Trump is emerging more and more as a Fascist, who needs to stopped in his quest for absolute power before it is too late.
https://www.theprogressiveprofessor.com/?p=32251
Republicans are putting party over country. Only way to get rid of him is to put Democrats back in charge in 2018.
Rational Lefty – Polling done during the summer shows that people want Democrats exactly that.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/22/half-of-americans-want-democrats-to-control-congress-poll.html
Dump is down to 33% now. How low can he go?! Ha! Ha! Ha!
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-gallup-poll-low_us_59f7b29fe4b0c0c8e67c4ce2
Breakdown of various polls show that he’s lost independents.
http://www.npr.org/2017/06/28/534602973/trump-fails-to-reach-beyond-base-as-independents-disapproval-grows
Like I’ve said before, some people are regretting their vote for Trump.
The following report sets up potential for my sensing that the 2018 midterm elections will be a gain for the White House opposition party—the Democratic Party. But, I stand by my previous posts that I am, at this point, predicting a Republican hold—and re-election for Donald Trump—with the presidency in 2020. The percentage of those who vote in a midterm election are around 35 percent—down from the estimated 55 percent who vote in a presidential election. Those types elections are different in nature.
Here it is…
PowerPost Post-ABC poll: Voters favor Democrats over Republicans in 2018 House midterms by widest margin in years
By Sean Sullivan and Emily Guskin (11.06.2017)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/post-abc-poll-voters-favor-democrats-over-republicans-in-2018-house-midterms-by-widest-margin-in-years/2017/11/05/b3b2f620-bf4d-11e7-959c-fe2b598d8c00_story.html?utm_term=.3a99475bfd9d
Voters say they prefer Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives over Republicans by the widest margin in over a decade, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll — a fresh sign of trouble for the GOP majority one year before the midterm elections.
But Democrats’ effort to convert widespread disapproval of President Trump into victories in 2018 could be undercut by lower turnout, with Republicans expressing just as much motivation to vote in next year’s elections.
…
Adding to the linked report, I was curious to look at numbers since 1994 for when we saw majority control of the U.S. House and U.S. Senate flip. (I am not counting 2001 and 2002, because of unusual circumstances involving then-Vermont U.S. Sen. Jim Jeffords, with the upper chamber.)
Since 1994, this has always happened in midterm election years—as it does most times—and majority pickups went to the White House opposition party.
I wanted to see if there were any patterns worth mentioning that could give us a preview of what may happen in 2018. So, beginning with the midterms of 1994, here goes.…
1994 (Bill Clinton, D)
• U.S. House: Rs, 176; Ds, 258 | Net gain (majority pickup): R+54 (separately, D+4)
• U.S. Senate: Rs, 44; Ds, 52 | Net gain (majority pickup): R+8 (D+0)
2006 (George W. Bush, R)
• U.S. House: Rs, 232; Ds, 202 | Net gain (majority pickup): D+31 (R+0)
• U.S. Senate: Rs, 55; Ds, 45 | Net gain (majority pickup): D+6 (R+0)
2010 (Barack Obama, D)
• U.S. House: Rs, 179; Ds, 256 | Net gain (majority pickup): R+63 (D+3)
• U.S. Senate: Rs, 41; Ds, 59 | Net gain (party hold): R+6 (D+0)
2014 (Barack Obama, D)
• U.S. House: Rs, 234; Ds, 201 | Net gain (party hold): R+13
• U.S. Senate: Rs, 45; Ds, 55 | Net gain (majority pickup): R+9
2018 (Donald Trump, R)
• U.S. House: Rs, 239; Ds, 194 | Pending [11.06.2017]
• U.S. Senate: Rs, 52; Ds, 48 | Pending [11.06.2017]
Here is what I am getting at: In the midterm elections in which the U.S. House flipped—in 1994, 2006, and 2010—the number of pickups were above +30. If you look at counter-flips, there were less than +5 with the U.S. House. At the same time, their majority parties in the U.S. Senate saw no gains. In other words, the Ds did not flip any R-held U.S. Senate seats in 1994, 2010 (majority retained by the Ds), and 2014; the Rs did not flip any D-held seats in 2006. All these U.S. Senate seats, for the minority party, were retained. What this would point to, should the Democrats win a majority pickup of the U.S. House with the midterms of 2018, is the likely retaining of every Democratic-held U.S. Senate seat. So, when it comes to gains in the upper chamber, this would actually point to the advantage being with the Ds.
As of now, and with Donald Trump’s low approval numbers, I am thinking the following: the U.S. House will become a Democratic pickup; the U.S. Senate is pure tossup. (Governorships should also see notable, net gains for the Ds.)
D, I hope your analysis and projections work out.
Thanks so much!
A focus group of Trump Republican voters was done during the Spring of 2017. They claimed to be turned off by his behavior. Where was their so-called concern when he was attacking the Khans? Where was it when he was making fun of Carly Fiorina’s face? Where was it when he was attacking John McCain for being a POW? Where was it when he was mocking a disabled reporter? Trump’s whole campaign was nothing but hateful rhetoric like that. If they were truly concerned about his behavior, then they shouldn’t have pulled the lever for him! Some pundits say we should sympathize with them. I’m sorry but IÂ find it very hard to sympathize with people who were complacent with bullying.
Nailed it, Former Republican! People that dislike Trump, dislike him for much more than just policy differences.
When he arrived in Japan Saturday night, it was reported that Dump’s approval rating there is only in the 20’s. It’s not just Americans who hate him.
I agree totally with you, Former Republican!
To second what this blog said (http://pleasecutthecrap.com/react-at-our-peril/), many of the blogs and pundits we read and listen to are pretty much leaving the Donna Brazille controversy alone for a very simple reason: it really doesn’t matter. She’s trying to sell a book and it’s disappointing that she stooped to click/bait in order to do so.
I totally agree, Former Republican.
The Democratic Party is far from perfect, but third party movements will go nowhere, and the Republican Party is a disgrace!
And Hillary Clinton, with her faults, was easily the most qualified candidate for President in many years, more qualified than her husband, Jimmy Carter, and Barack Obama in regards to experience and background before running for the Presidency.
Of course, I will say again that Joe Biden was my preferred candidate, but we did not have a chance to vote for him in 2016, due to his son’s tragic death. I think Biden was more qualified than Hillary, but that issue is past news!
We can look back and say that death caused much more harm than just to the Biden family, as I sincerely believe he would have been elected over Donald Trump, winning the white working class in the Midwest.
We would have been able to avoid the Trump nightmare, but now we must be united for the future, but with a younger new generation in charge in Congress and running for President!
It was what Trump’s victory said about my fellow citizens that I found most crushing.
And it wasn’t just one thing. There were so many aspects that were upsetting. The way Trump talked about people was appalling, whether they were immigrants or minorities or women or Muslims or his political opponents or the reporters covering the campaign. The way Trump acted towards women and minorities throughout his life was transparently immoral. His business dealings were clearly fraudulent, and so were his claims of charity. His personal behavior was lecherous and dishonorable.  His disregard for the truth was stunning.
I had expectations for the American people. They might not be excited about another Clinton presidency, I thought, but surely they can’t seriously entertain a Trump presidency. Not enough of them, anyway, for him to actually win.
Totally in agreement with your sentiments, Pragmatic Progressive.
I am shocked at the total materialism and greed of so many in government, as if they plan to take their billions with them to the grave.
To live a life only for acquisition of wealth is truly sickening, a disease that is undermining the concept of justice and equality in America, as we are now more stratified than the United Kingdom!
Powerful message for tomorrow:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-northam-gillespie-election-is-once-in-a-lifetime/2017/11/05/383680a4-c0d6-11e7-97d9-bdab5a0ab381_story.html?utm_term=.8957ec083fe8
A Northam victory would send a signal to the country that President Trump is a severe drag on the GOP, especially if it were combined with Democratic pickups in the legislature. This would bolster the forces trying to contain Trump’s abuses and give heart to those doing the organizing work against him at the grass roots.
It would tell Republicans in Congress that coddling and imitating Trump carry a high cost while strengthening Democratic efforts to recruit strong candidates for the 2018 midterms.
A win by Gillespie would convey exactly the opposite message. It would ratify the Republican candidate’s vile and dishonest campaign tying Northam to felons and criminal gangs. This, in turn, would lead to more ugly racial and anti-immigrant appeals by GOP candidates next year. The party would decide that playing around with a few of Trump’s more hateful themes was the way to go. The race to the bottom would continue.
Trump is a bad symptom of our reality show culture. Those shows are teaching people that being rude and crude is acceptable.
If Democrats can somehow win the special U.S. Senate election in Alabama, then I will go from move it from Tossup to Lean Democratic for likely pickup for the 2018 midterm elections. (I already think the U.S. House will flip. Of course, I can change my mind.)
Regarding the November 7, 2017 gubernatorial elections: Due to the fact that Virginia is a Democratic hold, I am more interested in the Democratic pickup of New Jersey.
The Republicans hold 34 governor mansions. The Democrats hold 15. The +1 from New Jersey will reduce the Rs to 33 to the Ds at 16.
Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_governors
There is the potential of a Democratic midterm wave for 2018 which can actually result in the Democrats winning the +10 they will need to overtake the majority for governor mansions.
From the next link, appearing at the bottom, are the states on the schedule for 2018. There are 36 in all. And nine are from the Top 10 populous.
In order to get to that needed +10, following New Jersey, I would imagine the 2018 Democrats should win pickups from a combination of the following Republican-held governorships (numerous are based on historical pattern of electing governors opposite the White House party):
1. Arizona
2. Illinois
3. Iowa
4. Kansas
5. Maine
6. Maryland
7. Massachusetts
8. Michigan
9. Nebraska
10. New Hampshire
11. New Mexico
12. Ohio
13. Oklahoma
14. Tennessee
15. Wisconsin
16. Wyoming
Another one is Florida. But, I haven’t followed the state. The state Democrats are notorious for not winning winnable elections. (I am curious with Georgia. That is state that is poised to flip in the next presidential election which switches from the Republican to the Democratic column.)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_gubernatorial_elections,_2018