Utah, The Mormon State, Could Vote Democratic For First Time Since 1964, When They Voted Against Barry Goldwater

Utah, the Mormon state, has had an interesting history in their voting patterns on the Presidential elections.

Coming into the Union in 1896, Utah voted for Democrat William Jennings Bryan that year; for Woodrow Wilson in his second term bid in 1916; for Franklin D. Roosevelt four times in 1932, 1936, 1940, and 1944; for Harry Truman in 1948; and for Lyndon Johnson in 1964 (over Barry Goldwater).

So if Utah goes for Hillary Clinton, which now seems likely, it will be the first time in 52 years.

With Utah politicians, including Senator Mike Lee, Congressman Jason Chaffetz, and former Governor Jon Huntsman condemning Donald Trump, and with Mitt Romney, the most famous Mormon and 2012 Republican Presidential nominee, being vehemently anti Trump from the beginning of the 2016 Presidential race, it is seen as a blow to Trump having any chance to keep that state loyal to the Republican Party, which is natural in the past half century. Realize that Romney won 3-1 over Barack Obama four years ago!

4 comments on “Utah, The Mormon State, Could Vote Democratic For First Time Since 1964, When They Voted Against Barry Goldwater

  1. D October 11, 2016 11:00 am


    I was just at FiveThirtyEight.com.

    Nate Silver has Hillary Clinton, at best, with an 88.1-percent chance of getting elected the next and 45th president of the United States. (This is based on the best-case-for-Hillary Clinton scenario of “Now-cast.”)

    Silver has Utah as a 98.1-percent likely rate that Donald Trump will carry the state.

    The margin in Utah, for a 2012 Mitt Romney, was +47.88. From FiveThirtyEight.com, Donald Trump’s indicated margin to carry Utah would come down to +14.8.

    The website has also estimates of the ranking of states’ percentage-points margins as one could list them for those which would carry for Donald Trump and the ones for Hillary Clinton. (That site has Hillary carrying 28 states, plus District of Columbia, which would add up to 357 electoral votes. She would lose Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, in a Republican pickup for Trump, while counter-flipping North Carolina and Arizona for a net gain of +25 electoral votes added to the 332 electoral votes from the 2012 re-election of fellow Democrat Barack Obama.) As it stands right now, 10.11.2016 @ 11:00 a.m. ET—four weeks from the scheduled 11.08.2016 elections—Utah would rank as Trump’s No. 9 best state. It would be Hillary’s No. 42.

    According to Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight.com:

    — Nebraska’s 3rd Congressional District (1 electoral vote)
    01. Wyoming (3 electoral votes; cumulative 4 electoral votes)
    02. Alabama (9; cum. 13)
    03. West Virginia (5; cum. 18)
    04. Idaho (4; cum. 22)
    05. Oklahoma (7; cum. 29)
    06. North Dakota (3; cum. 32)
    07. Nebraska—statewide (2; cum. 34)
    08. Arkansas (6; cum. 40)
    09. Utah (6; cum. 46)
    — Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District (1; cum. 47)
    10. Mississippi (6; cum. 53)
    11. Louisiana (8; cum. 61)
    12. Kentucky (8; cum. 69)
    13. Tennessee (11; cum. 80)
    14. Montana (3; cum. 83)
    15. South Dakota (3; cum. 86)
    16. Kansas (6; cum. 92)
    17. Texas (38; cum. 130)
    18; South Carolina (9; cum. 139)
    19. Indiana (11; cum. 150)
    20. Missouri (10; cum. 160)
    21. Alaska (3; cum. 163)
    22. Georgia (16; cum. 179)
    — Maine’s 2nd Congressional District (Republican pickup; 1; cum. 180)
    — Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (1; cumulative electoral votes 181)

    — District of Columbia (3 electoral votes)
    01. Hawaii (4 electoral votes; cumulative 7 electoral votes)
    02. Maryland (10; cum. 17)
    03. Vermont (3; cum. 20)
    04. California (55; cum. 75)
    05. Massachusetts (11; cum. 86)
    06. New York (29; cum. 115)
    07. Rhode Island (4; cum. 119)
    — Maine’s 1st Congressional District (1; cum. 120)
    08. Illinois (20; cum. 140)
    09. Delaware (3; cum. 143)
    10. Connecticut (7; cum. 150)
    11. Washington (12; cum. 162)
    12. Oregon (7; cum. 169)
    13. New Jersey (14; cum. 183)
    14. New Mexico (5; cum. 188)
    15. Maine—statewide (2; cum. 190)
    16. Michigan (16; cum. 206)
    17. Virginia (13; cum. 219)
    18. New Hampshire (4; cum. 223)
    19. Minnesota (10; cum. 233)
    20. Wisconsin (10; cum. 243)
    21. Pennsylvania (20; cum. 263)
    22. Colorado (9; cum. 272)—tipping-point state
    23. Nevada (6; cum. 278)
    24. Florida (29; cum. 307)
    25. North Carolina (Democratic pickup; 15; cum. 322)
    26. Ohio (18; cum. 340)
    27. Iowa (6; cum. 346)
    28. Arizona (Democratic pickup; 11; cumulative electoral votes 357)

    So, there you have it. Colorado is once again looking to be the tipping-point state of this presidential election. I live in Michigan. Typically for Democrats, it is between their No. 13 and 16. Here it is No. 16.

    Since after the 1980s, the Republicans have averaged between 7 and 9 electoral votes per carried state. (Donald Trump would average 8.) The Democrats have averaged between 10 and 13 electoral votes per carried state. (Usually it’s been 12 or 13. Hillary Clinton would average 12.) So, this appears to comport with some patterns of recent presidential elections.

    In order to win over Utah, according to Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight.com, a huge wave will have to happen for the Democrats and Hillary Clinton. I would guess that winning nationally by close to +15 is what would make it feasible. (If that were to happen…we’d be looking at an approximately 40-state landslide for the Democrats and Hillary Clinton.)

  2. Ronald October 11, 2016 1:19 pm

    Thanks very much for this, D.

    I suppose it is highly unlikely, but the Mormon distaste for Trump is well known, so we shall see!

  3. D October 13, 2016 10:39 pm

    Thursday, October 13, 2016 @ 10:30 p.m. ET | Some polls have come in from Utah. And they are worse for Donald Trump and better for Hillary Clinton. FiveThirtyEight.com’s “Now-cast” has Utah moved from Donald Trump’s No. 9 to No. 19 in ranking states both candidates would carry (as of the timing of the updates) should the election be right now.

    Now-cast gives Donald Trump a 76 percent chance to carry Utah. Hillary is at 13.3 percent.

    Trump is estimated at a +6 lead in Utah over Hillary Clinton. Evan McMullin, who is polling with impact in Utah, is in third place.

    Here is a link:


    When you look at the states Now-cast has for Hillary, she’s on pace to win the 26 states, plus District of Columbia, which carried for re-electing Barack Obama in 2012. Pickups would be had in North Carolina and Arizona. Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (area of Omaha) on the cusp of flipping to her. So is Georgia which, together with Arizona, tend to be no more than 5 points in spread from each other.

    Those would amount to 29 states. Nos. 30 to 32, for Hillary’s best in margins, would be: Alaska (surprising!), Missouri, and Utah. (Indiana, which has been no more than 1.16 in spread from Missouri over Elections 2008 and 2012, is at No. 33. South Carolina and Texas are Nos. 34 and 35.)

    What will be interesting is to see if there is more dramatic national margins shifts toward Hillary. That Donald Trump is truly flaming out electorally that results in expanding the margin of victory for Hillary in the popular vote and, as a natural progression, a flipping of however many states from the 2012 Republican to 2016 Democratic column. So, I suggest staying tuned in.

  4. Ronald October 14, 2016 7:03 pm

    D, thanks for your updated evaluation and analysis, much appreciated!

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