Republican President Ronald Reagan utilized bombing against Libya’s leader, Moammar Gaddafi in 1981 and 1986, and many feared what it might lead to, and it led to a silencing of Gaddafi at that time.
Democratic President Bill Clinton utilized bombing against Serbia in Bosnia in 1995 and Kosovo in 1999, and ended both crises effectively.
On the other hand, Republican President Gerald Ford and Democratic President Jimmy Carter stood silent in wake of the mass murder in Cambodia from 1975 to 1978, and Bill Clinton stood by as we saw mass murder in Rwanda in 1994.
Our ignoring of Cambodia and Rwanda has been condemned in history, while our intervention in Libya by Reagan, and against Serbia in Bosnia and Kosovo by Clinton, has been praised.
Conclusion: Show weakness and fear, and evil forces triumph, as in the 1930s with Adolf Hitler before World War II, which was far worse than if there had been a proper reaction against Nazi Germany in that decade!
Appeasement and isolationism NEVER work!
Hello Professor,
It is at this time we need to employ John Nash’s “Game Theory.†We must list all variables, play out and project the scenarios, then follow wherever they lead.
First we have to consider if we send in cruse missiles to hit the chemical / biological weapons labs and warehouses. After this surgical sortie and Assad lives, he could feel more embolden that he survived. Much like Saddam Hussein of Iraq after the first Gulf War; his conclusion was that he scored a victory against the collection of world’s armies by simply surviving and staying in power. In essence what you have left maybe more distilled hatred, empowered by a mentally sick invincibility, which could be directed towards Israel in months, and at least, years to come.
On the other hand, if we as the world do nothing, and the chemical attacks on his own people go unpunished, Assad and his military leaders will feel empowered to quickly repeat this type of attack not only on his own people again but next possibility among adjoining countries.
Second, we cannot ignore the failing economy that will follow this uprising in Syria. Just as Argentina attacked the Falkland Islands to reclaim these islands from England, to divert the attention of their 1000% inflation and failing economy. Syria could attack the targeted disputed territories now under Israel’s control and the use of chemical weapons on the population of the expanding settlements being built there to rally their own people and divert the attention of Syria’s economic condition at that time. This action of course will have no longevity when it is all said and done but 1000s of men, women, and children will be dead from the likes of nerve gas.
Third is Russia’s reaction. They have been against any attack on Assad and Syria. Russia has enough trouble with the Muslims reactionaries in Chechnya orchestrating terrorist attacks within Russia. They now already have Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan under Fundamental Muslim Religious Extremism so close which could at any time fund and make more terrorist attacks more frequent into their country. The last thing Russia wants is another reactionary, state sanctioned and led, Muslim extremist nation so close to their boarders. Russia maybe viewing this as “Keeping The Devil You Know,†than what might replace them. The Rebels are being supported, supplied, and armed by Muslim Extremist from Iran and Iraq right now.
Russia’s reaction may include rekindling the “Cold War†mentality. I would venture a guess that the Bush / Cheney thumbing their noses towards Russia during their tenure, may have already started the way back to this Russia’s type of thinking.
Forth, Turkey is suffering the worst economic aspects of having waves of refugees coming into their country. What would be the cause and effects of this aspect should we bomb Syria. I would guess that this will become increasing worse either way. Whether we attack Assad’s chemical weapons or not, people will want to flee with their families to protect and preserve them.
Fifth, this country has squandered too much wealth in the lies that led us into Iraq. Not only on the economic scale but the wealth of our sons and daughters. We have also been bogged down in Afghanistan trying to “Nation Build†an area that Religious Leadership Doctrine is valued more than Democracy. These kind of changes have to come from within, not from without by a conquering nation which we are viewed as now.
Just as Britain’s Parliament voted down any participation in the future missile attacks, many in this country are war wearer too. The President may not have the support for any additional needs required to follow up on such a missile attack.
I have to agree to do nothing is wrong much like the analogy of Nazi Germany you give. The President is going to have to weigh the “Cause and Effects†of any decision he makes.
These are but a few variables that have to be considered in the days to come by the President, his Cabinet, and many of the world’s leaders.
Of course the Right Wing Nut Jobs will have a field day no matter what direction the President decides…..it will be wrong. Pretend News will have an Orgy of Hate with this one.
A great and brilliant analysis, Engineer, and I am not claiming that this is an easy choice or situation for Obama, but doing nothing is not an alternative in my mind, but again, with four anti war leaders—Obama, Biden, Kerry, Hagel—in charge, we are in far better hands than we were under Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld!
Far better off now than during the W. Bush / Cheney…..INDEED!!! You are also correct that doing nothing is NOT an option. This Presidency has to thread carefully, and I trust them the most.