Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, one of the three GOP senators to back the President’s economic stimulus bill, now faces a tough reelection battle and must make a decision as to strategy for the 2010 senatorial battle.
If he chooses to run as an independent, he will be involved in a three way race, and would be unlikely to win. If he runs in the Republican primary, he is likely to lose to a more conservative Republican, and then under Pennsylvania law, could not run as an independent, as Joe Lieberman did in Connecticut in 2006 after losing the Democratic primary to an antiwar Democrat.
Of course, since he will be reaching the age of 80 and has been courageously battling cancer twice in the last few years, he could also retire after 30 years in the Senate. However, he seems to be leaning against retirement,and certainly continues as an active, involved member of the Senate.
Were he to choose to switch parties and run as a Democrat, it is likely he would have little opposition in the Democratic primary and would win reelection in a state heavily tilting to the Democratic party in recent years. He actually was a Democrat early in his career in the 1960s, and since he votes so often with the Democrats and is often considered a RINO (Republican in Name Only), it would be a natural move on his part.
Senator Specter has had a long, distinguished and also controversial career. Looking back over three decades, I see him as a Senator who has contributed much to the Senate and the nation, so I hope he will decide to switch over to the Democrats, the party that he probably never should have left over 40 years ago.