US Senate Elections 2020

Final Projection On Congressional Elections Of 2020

With only five days to go until the Congressional Elections of 2020, this author and blogger wishes to indicate his final projection on what is likely to happen.

The House of Representatives will witness a major Democratic gain, with the estimate being about 15 seats, to a total of approximately 250 Democrats and 185 Republicans, giving the Democrats a wide margin for the next elections in 2022.

Democrats will gain seats in California, Florida, Illinois, Texas, Virginia and Pennsylvania, reaching about five more than I estimated on May 2 in my earlier projection, and a large number will be female and minority.

The US Senate will see a Democratic takeover, and have 53-55 seats. The Democrats will lose Alabama, regrettably, although Doug Jones is an exceptional Senator, the best Alabama has had in a long time, but Alabama is simply unwilling to appreciate a man as decent and accomplished as Doug Jones. If he does indeed lose his seat, however, Jones should be part of the Biden team, maybe as a cabinet member.

The Republicans will lose seven to nine seats, with assuredly the following seven gains and possibly two more:

Arizona, Mark Kelly over Martha McSally

Colorado, John Hickenlooper over Cory Gardner

Maine, Sara Gideon over Susan Collins

Georgia, Jon Ossoff over David Perdue

Montana, Steve Bullock over Steve Daines

North Carolina, Cal Cunningham over Thom Tillis

Iowa, Theresa Greenfield over Joni Ernst

Kansas, Barbara Bollier over Roger Marshall

South Carolina, Jaime Harrison over Lindsey Graham

Georgia’s other seat, presently held by Kelly Loeffler is more difficult to determine, and will not be settled until January.

Sadly, this author and blogger doubts the defeat of John Cornyn in Texas or Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, but sees the first seven listed above sure to go Blue, and Kansas and South Carolina possible, so therefore, with the loss of Alabama, but the gain of seven Republican seats, at least 53 Democrats, and the possibility of up to two more, for a grand total of 55 maximum!

Democrats Gaining In Southeast And Southwest, Likely Transforming American Politics In The 2020s

Indications are that Democrats are starting to gain support in both the Southeast (North Carolina, Georgia) and the Southwest (Arizona), and are running even in Florida and Texas, and keeping their lead in Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.

If this trend continues, the Midwest Rust Belt states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania), while still important, will be less significant in future Presidential elections.

And it looks as if many of the Senate seats that are being decided this November will end up with a Democratic Senator–as in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico.

The electoral map in future elections will be vastly different than it has been in previous election rounds.