Beto O’Rourke

The Likely Long Term Result Of The Third Democratic Presidential Debate: Probably Seven Of The Ten Are Still Viable

Upon further reflection about the Houston Democratic Presidential debate last Thursday, it would seem that three candidates have lost the likelihood of having a real chance to be the nominee of the party in 2020.

Those would be:

Andrew Yang, who offered ten families $1,000 a month for the next year as part of his promotion of $1,000 a month for all adults over the age of 18, which drew some attention when he said it, but is seen as a death knell for his candidacy, even though Republican President Richard Nixon suggested a similar plan of $500 a month nearly fifty years ago.

Julian Castro, who by, seemingly, bringing up ageism as an issue about Joe Biden, made many enemies, and it is likely to derail his campaign, and probably kills any chance of him being the Vice Presidential nominee.

Beto O’Rourke, who by calling for mandatory buyback of AR 15s and AK 47s gave great propaganda to gun enthusiasts and the National Rifle Association, who will use what he said against Democrats to scare gun owners to vote Republican, not an insubstantial number. While one can understand O’Rourke’s sincere emotions after the El Paso and Odessa-Midland shootings in August, it is a guaranteed defeat for any Democrat to follow through as O’Rourke has, not because it is wrong, but because it is not winnable in a national election, despite all of the mass murders that have occurred in recent years.

Additionally, since the ageism issue has been brought up, it could be that the two oldest potential nominees–Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden–who would reach 80 early in the next term, might find that their candidacies might worry and concern voters, especially at a time when Donald Trump is showing signs of mental decline, even though he is four and five years younger than Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, respectively.

So more attention will likely be paid to other candidates—Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, and Kamala Harris.

With 141 days to the Iowa Caucuses, it is far from certain what will happen in the battle for the Democratic nomination for President.

The Third Democratic Presidential Debate In Houston: First Impressions

Early impressions are as follows:

Julian Castro, Pete Buttigieg, Cory Booker, Beto O’Rourke, and Elizabeth Warren come across as the best.

Expect that Castro, Buttigieg, Booker, and O’Rourke will rise in polls, and Warren will continue to gain on Joe Biden.

Biden is not doing as well as one would expect, and neither is Bernie Sanders.

Kamala Harris has likely not gained by this debate, and the same for Andrew Yang.

Amy Klobuchar might gain, but is not shining as much as this blogger thought she would.

Overall, the ABC debate is much better than the two earlier debates sponsored by MSNBC and CNN.

The candidates are avoiding attacking each other, and clearly, any one of the group would be far better than Donald Trump!

Time For John Hickenlooper, Steve Bullock, And Beto O’Rourke To Give Up Presidential Candidacies, And Run To Help Create Democratic Senate Majority In 117th Congress!

It is time for three Presidential contenders to give up their candidacies and run instead for the US Senate in their states, and help create a Democratic Senate majority for the 117th Congress of 2021-2022.

Former Governor John Hickenlooper of Colorado; Montana Governor Steve Bullock; and former Texas Congressman from El Paso, Beto O’Rourke, have no real opportunity to continue further, although O’Rourke has qualified for the third Democratic debate in Houston in September. Despite that, and his courageous and outstanding reaction to the El Paso Massacre, it is clear that he is NOT going to progress any further to the top tier of candidates.

Bullock is fascinating, and did well in the second Presidential debate, but he came in too late, and has no traction, despite his being quite impressive.

And Hickenlooper, well, he is a massive dud, and apparently is leaving the race later today.

All three would be wonderful Senators, and the Democrats need a minimum gain of four seats, or three, if the Vice President in the next term is a Democrat, and can organize the Senate majority.

If the Democrats win the Presidency, but fail to win the Senate majority, then nothing will be accomplished, as Mitch McConnell or his successor as Senate Majority Leader, will bottleneck any agenda of any Democrat, whether it be Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, or Pete Buttigieg, the most likely choices at this point to be serious contenders for the Democratic nomination for President.

Could Beto O’Rourke Or Julian Castro Carry Texas, And Win The Presidency?

An interesting idea has emerged, as stated by former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke.

He claims that polls show that he would win Texas over Donald Trump in 2020, and that he could, therefore, win the Presidency.

Meanwhile, polls do not show O’Rourke doing well, and his performance in the two debates so far is not inspiring.

But then, the question arises, could former San Antonio Mayor and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro, who has performed very well in both debates, also possibly win his home state of Texas, and therefore win the Presidency?

There is no question that IF Texas was to go Democratic, it would insure Donald Trump’s defeat, and transform American politics.

It certainly seems likely that Texas will go eventually “Blue”, but maybe not until 2024 or 2028.

Of course, IF Texas AND Florida were to go “Blue”, with the latter nowhere near as likely, then the Democratic Party will win the Presidency for decades on end!

Joe Biden Survives Onslaught In Second Night Of Second Debate, But Kamala Harris Remains Major Competitor, And Cory Booker Impresses

The second night of the second Democratic Presidential debate in Detroit, Michigan, saw former Vice President Joe Biden survive an onslaught from Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Bill de Blasio.

At the same time, Harris remained a major competitor, although attacked by Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard on her handling of criminal justice as California Attorney General.

Cory Booker gained a great deal from this debate as well, and Julian Castro and Jay Inslee both improved their status.

Overall, this debate was far better than Tuesday night’s debate, and it is certain that the 20 debaters will decline by up to half the total for the Houston debate on ABC on September 12 and 13.

Some of these 20 contenders, even if they did well, will be unable to gain 130,000 unique contributors and 2 percent in at least 4 polls, the requirements for the third set of debates.

Right now, the following are definite:

Joe Biden

Kamala Harris

Bernie Sanders

Elizabeth Warren

Pete Buttigieg

The following have a good opportunity to move forward as well:

Cory Booker

Julian Castro

Amy Klobuchar

Jay Inslee

Beto O’Rourke

Steve Bullock

So a total of 11 candidates are likely in September in Houston, and since there will likely be only 11, they may all be on one evening.

The Possibility Of A Latino President: Julian Castro

The idea of a Latino President is becoming more possible, as former Obama Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro, who also was Mayor of the 6th largest city, San Antonio, Texas, has reached the 130,000 donors needed to be able to participate in the third Democratic debate in September.

This development, along with his excellent performance at the first debate and making fellow Texan former Congressman Beto O’Rourke look weak by comparison, elevates Castro to a much more serious candidacy.

With people of Hispanic ancestry being one of every six Americans, and with Mexican Americans being two thirds of all Hispanics, Julian Castro can be seen as a possible President.

There is no larger minority in America than Mexican Americans and of Hispanics totally, and Castro has proved he can govern a major city, and a major federal bureaucracy as a cabinet officer.

Castro would be 46 at the time of the next Presidential inauguration, the third youngest President in American history, about a month younger than Bill Clinton, and about six months younger than Ulysses S. Grant.

It would also mean that “a new generation” of leadership–with John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama—would be added to by Julian Castro, making them the second, third, sixth, and fourth youngest Presidents in American history.

Is Beto O’Rourke Finished As A Presidential Candidate?

Former Texas Congressman Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke of Texas, who came within a few points of defeating Senator Ted Cruz in 2018, seems to be on the road to oblivion at this point.

After a heralded amount of attention during the Senate race and when he came out as a Presidential candidate, O’Rourke seemed to be a hot item.

But he has deteriorated in his polls and raising of money, and his performance at the first Democratic Presidential debates was lackluster at best, and fellow Texas Julian Castro challenged him, and came out the winner, and has seen his prospects improve, as O’Rourke’s prospects have deteriorated.

It is not yet the time to write him off, but right now, Beto O’Rourke is in a decline, and he will need to restore his fortunes at the second Democratic debates at the end of July in Detroit, or else his candidacy will likely be finished.

Is It Time For A New Generation Of Leadership For The Democrats?

After watching both Democratic Presidential debates this week, one has to ask the question:

It is time for a new generation of leadership for the Democrats?

The Democratic Party, historically, has regularly gone for younger candidates for President than the Republicans.

Witness Franklin D. Roosevelt, age 51; Adlai Stevenson, age 52; John F. Kennedy, age 43; Lyndon B. Johnson full term, age 56; Hubert Humphrey, age 57; George McGovern, age 50; Jimmy Carter, age 52; Walter Mondale, age 56; Michael Dukakis, age 56; Bill Clinton, age 46; Al Gore, age 52; Barack Obama, age 47.

Compare this to Dwight D. Eisenhower, age 62; Gerald Ford, 1976, age 63; Ronald Reagan, age 69; George H W Bush, age 64; Bob Dole, age 73; John McCain, age 72; Mitt Romney, age 65; Donald Trump, age 70.

So nominating Bernie Sanders, age 79; Joe Biden, age 78; or Elizabeth Warren, age 71—all of whom would be the oldest first term nominated Presidential candidate—might be the wrong way to go!

Might it NOT be better to nominate, at their ages at the time of the Presidential Election of 2020?

Pete Buttigieg age 39

Tulsi Gabbard age 39

Eric Swalwell age 40

Julian Castro age 46

Beto O’Rourke age 48

Cory Booker age 51

Steve Bullock age 54

Kirsten Gillibrand age 54

Kamala Harris age 56

Amy Klobuchar age 60

The Best Performances In The First Debate: Julian Castro, Elizabeth Warren, Jay Inslee

Last night’s first Democratic debate saw some definite winners:

Julian Castro

Elizabeth Warren

Jay Inslee

The biggest winner was former HUD Secretary and San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, who came across very strongly in competition with fellow Texas and former Congressman Beto O’Rourke on immigration and in his overall performance. He is someone that this author and blogger has been impressed with for a long time, and realize he was on the short list for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and might have made the difference in bringing out more Latino votes, had he been on the ticket. I think he can be considered now a major player, number 6 on the list, with the likelihood that funding and poll numbers will increase dramatically.

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, the only major player in this first debate, also came across strongly, and very principled, but might have hurt herself by her moving closer to Bernie Sanders in competition for the far Left of the Democratic Party.

Washington State Governor Jay Inslee also impressed, with his strong stand on climate change, and his overall background record as an outstanding Governor, and his funding and poll numbers may also increase dramatically. And the Pacific Northwest deserves attention for the national ticket.

New Jersey Senator Cory Booker and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar also improved their image, but not to the extent of Castro and Inslee.

Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan, much more moderate, also deserves some more respect and attention, but it will not be easy for him to gain traction as much as the five mentioned above.

The remaining four–Beto O’Rourke, Tulsi Gabbard, Bill de Blasio, John Delaney—seem to be left behind as this author and blogger sees it.

Clearly, there are many different ways to look at any debate, and there will be plenty of analysis and evaluation in many different directions.

But at this point, I would say Julian Castro will soon join Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg as the top six of all.

We shall see soon whether any of the other six debating tonight join that group as a serious contender.

The First Debate Mix: What To Expect

The first debate among Democratic Presidential candidates takes place on Wednesday June 26 at 9-11 pm on NBC and MSNBC.

It includes the following ten candidates:

Elizabeth Warren

Beto O’Rourke

Coey Booker

Julian Castro

Tulsi Gabbard

Jay Inslee

Amy Klobuchar

Bill de Blasio

John Delaney

Tim Ryan

This is a mix of three US Senators; four former or sitting US House members; a former Mayor and Cabinet Officer; a Mayor; and a Governor.

The one who needs to shine, based on her high poll ratings, and therefore expectations being high, is Elizabeth Warren. This author and blogger would imagine she will do very well in this debate.

Beto O’Rourke has slipped from an early boom, and will decline further if he does not perform well, based on analysis of the news media and public opinion after. My gut feeling is he will disappoint and slip further.

My “favorites” among this group, Julian Castro and Amy Klobuchar, need to make a great impression, and I tend to think they will benefit by this debate.

Also to be watched is Tim Ryan, who represents the Rust Belt Midwest probably better than even Klobuchar, and while not well known now, seems likely by my gut feeling to do well enough to gain traction.

Jay Inslee, with his emphasis on climate change, should gain some attention, but it seems doubtful that he will make much progress.

Cory Booker, Tulsi Gabbard, Bill de Blasio, and John Delaney are highly doubtful to gain much at all in this debate, in the judgment of this author and scholar, but we shall see.

This is all speculation, and there will be plenty of debate after about the reality of what this debate does to thin the field of candidates.

My projection is that the last five candidates mentioned—Inslee,Booker, Gabbard, de Blasio, and Delaney– will all lose financial and poll support, leaving the other five—Warren, O’Rourke, Castro, Klobuchar, Ryan–still in the race!