1953-1955 Senate

The US Senate Majority Is Up For Grabs In 2022!

The US Senate has had 1,994 members since 1789, and there have been great Senators, mediocre Senators, and wretched, horrible Senators.

One third of the US Senate comes up for election in every even numbered year, so the entire Senate is elected over a six year period.

Right now, 20 Republican seats are up for 2022, compared to 14 Democratic seats.

With a 50-50 Senate, only the fourth time in history that the Senate has been evenly divided, after 1881-1883, 1953-1955, and 2001-2003, it is a crucial time for both parties, wishing to gain a majority of the Senate.

Five Republicans are retiring—Richard Shelby of Alabama; Roy Blunt of Missouri; Richard Burr of North Carolina; Rob Portman of Ohio; and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania.

Three Republicans have not announced if they will run for reelection in 2022–Lisa Murkowski of Alaska; Ron Johnson of Wisconsin; and John Thune of South Dakota.

Only one Democrat, Patrick Leahy of Vermont, has not yet announced if he will run for reelection in 2022.

Twelve Republican Senators are running for reelection, as compared to 13 Democratic Senators.

The big goals for Democrats is to defeat the following five Republicans:

Marco Rubio of Florida
Rand Paul of Kentucky
Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, if he runs
Chuck Grassley of Iowa
Mike Lee of Utah

Also, the hope is that Democrats can win the seats of retiring Senators as follows:

Roy Blunt of Missouri
Richard Burr of North Carolina
Rob Portman of Ohio
Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania

So now a year before the elections, there is the theoretical possibility of the Democrats gaining up to nine seats, but truly, that is being highly idealistic, and unlikely to occur.

It all comes down to what Democratic seats are in danger, which would seem to include the following:

Mark Kelly of Arizona
Raphael Warnock of Georgia
Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada
Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire

So the odds are in favor of the Democrats in theory, having a chance in nine states, while the Republicans have a chance in four states.

A Nightmare Thought: What If America Ends Up With A 218-217 GOP House And A 50-50 GOP Senate For The 116th Congress?

With the midterm election only three weeks away, all kinds of scenarios are developing in the minds of political junkies, such as this author.

What if the House of Representatives ends up with a 218-217 majority held by the Republicans, meaning the Democrats only gain 22 seats in the lower chamber, rather than the 23 or more needed to control?

And what if miraculously, the Democrats gain one seat in the Senate, such as Arizona or Nevada, but lose two seats, such as North Dakota and Florida, and end up in a 50-50 tie, meaning Vice President Mike Pence organizes a Senate perfectly divided, and keeps the Senate Republican?

The question arises, have these scenarios ever occurred before in Congressional history, and the answer is YES in both houses of Congress, with twice in the House of Representatives.

In 1917-1919, the Republicans had a 215-214 margin, and third parties and Independents having 6 seats.

Also in 1931-1933, the Republicans had a 218-216 margin, and one third party seat.

In the Senate’s history, there have been eight such cases as follows:

In 1881-1883, there were 37 Republicans and 37 Democrats and two Independents.

In 1883-1885, there were 38 Republicans, 36 Democrats, and two Independents.

In 1893-1895, there were 44 Democrats, 40 Republicans, and four Independents.

In 1931-1933, there were 48 Republicans, 47 Democrats, and one Independent.

In 1953-1955, there were 48 Republicans, 47 Democrats, and one Independent.

In 1955-1957, there were 48 Democrats, 47 Republicans, and one Independent.

In 2001-2003, there were four switches of majority–From January 1-20, Democrat; from January 20 to June 6, Republican; from June 6, 2001 to November 12, 2002, Democratic; and then from November 12, 2002 to January 3, 2003 Republican. This was due to the switch of party and Vice President from Al Gore to Dick Cheney; the switch of Jim Jeffords of Vermont from Republican to Democratic; and the election of a new Senator from Missouri of the opposition party taking the oath of office before the new Senate of 2003 was organized.

Finally, in 2007-2009, there were 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and two Independents.