Yesterday, September 20, marked the end of 32 months of the Trump Presidency, two thirds of the entire term of 48 months.
This has been the most tumultuous 32 months in the history of the American Presidency, and with constant attacks on every institution and tradition imaginable, led by a crazed, mentally ill, morally bankrupt and totally evil man and his despicable cabinet and family.
And to imagine his attorneys in court this week declaring that the President cannot be challenged, and cannot be investigated, is an alarm bell in the night of the horrific dangers we are facing.
There is the potential of a new Middle East War, this time with Iran, in the service of a corrupt regime in Saudi Arabia.
There is the potential of a massive economic collapse after the longest economic expansion in American history, caused to a great extent by Donald Trump’s crazy tariff war with China and other nations.
There is the potential of more mass murders with firearms, and no moral leadership on Capitol Hill.
There is the ever present danger of climate change, with protests inspired by young people whose future is doomed if nothing is done to deal with the reality of what is occurring.
There is the power of religion, dividing people, and xenophobia, promoting racism and nativism on a large scale.
There is so much evil occurring, and an entire political party bows to the person who wishes to be a King, while the other party cowers in fear at standing up to the tin horn dictator and holding him accountable to the extent possible.
If Donald Trump is not impeached, it will be a sign to future Presidents of both sides of the political equation that they have been given license to extend the horrors of Donald Trump in the name of their own ambitions, rather than what is proper for the American people.
The fire is burning, and it is time for action, not only by the Democratic Party, but by all good citizens with a conscience and principles, willing to go beyond any personal economic gain that they might be having, and thinking of the nation above their own selfish interests.
â€˜All Eyes Are Shifting to the Senateâ€™
By Charlie Cook (â€œThe Cook Political Report,â€ 09.17.2019)
This column argued six months ago that to the extent the focus of the political world wasnâ€™t trained on the presidential election, it was on whether Democrats would retain their newly won House majority. It then argued that the Senate would eventually become the biggest non-presidential storyâ€”and that appears to be where we are today.
The thesis was, given that 31 seats that Democrats will be defending are in districts that voted for President Trump in 2016; that only three Republicans are in districts carried by Hillary Clinton; and that Republicans only need a net gain of 19 seats, that the House was probably the focal point for a lot of observers.
My hunch, though, was that the Democratic House majority, while not large, was a bit more stable than others thought; that there was a better than 50-50 chance that a Democrat would win the White House; and that if the Senate remained in Republican hands there was little the new Democratic president would be able to do. Therefore, the focus would shift from one side of the Capitol to the other.
That has now happened. And while the odds are better that Republicans hold onto, rather than lose, the Senate, there is at least a 30 percent chance the Senate flips.
Every reader of this column would know that Democrats need a three-seat gain to win a Senate majority if a Democrat wins the White Houseâ€”four seats if they donâ€™t. Iâ€™d argue that if President Trump is reelected, the odds of the GOP holding the Senate increase substantially, maybe to 90 percent, but that if Trump loses, the GOP chances of retaining control drops to just 55 or 60 percent, or maybe even less.
The reason is that in this new hyper-partisan political climate, with very little ticket-splitting taking place, more people than ever before are voting straight-line Republican or Democrat. The 2016 election was the first in American history in which every single Senate race was won by the same party as that state voted for President. In fact, 88 out of 100 Senators are now from the same party as their stateâ€™s most recent presidential victor.
But do Democrats really need only three or four seats based on the presidential outcome, or do they need to gross four or five seats in order to net three or four? Itâ€™s hard to see how Democratic Sen. Doug Jones wins reelection in a presidential year with presidential-level turnout, even if Republicans nominate their worst possible candidate, former judge Roy Moore. The accusations about Moore and young women were fresh at the time of the December 2017 special election, but itâ€™s old news now and likely to have less saliency.
If Democrats need to win at least four seats, where do they get them? Most would put GOP incumbents Martha McSally in Arizona and Cory Gardner in Colorado at the top of the Democratsâ€™ target. My guess is that both have about a 50-50 chance, at best, particularly if a Democrat is prevailing at the top of the ticket.
My National Journal colleagues Drew Gerber and Kyle Trygstad presented their latest Hotlineâ€™s Senate Power Rankings, sequencing the top 10 seats in order of vulnerability. More or less, I agree with their rankings and analysis, but where I most disagree is Maine, where Susan Collins is seeking reelection. Drew and Kyle put Maine behind North Carolina; I would put it ahead in vulnerability.
My view is that Collinsâ€™s chances put her just barely behind McSally and Gardner. Yes, Collins was last reelected with a very impressive 67 percent of the vote, normally a sign of great strength even six years later. But, consider first that the 67 percent was in 2014, a fabulous year for Republicans up and down the ballot. Second, Collins did extremely well among groups with whom she is unlikely to do even remotely as well this time, particularly given her support of Brett Kavanaughâ€™s Supreme Court nomination and vote for President Trumpâ€™s tax cuts.
The 2014 exit polls showed that Collins carried 37 percent of the vote among self-described liberals and 39 percent from Democrats. Anybody think she will remotely do that again? What about winning 69 percent of independents and 72 percent of moderates. This is not to predict that she will lose, just that this is likely to be an extremely difficult race and that it has a higher chance of going Democratic than several others.
After Arizona, Colorado, and Maine, Democrats are likely to need at least one more, and that would require a fairly substantial wave. Democrats need the suburbs to move in their direction, particularly among college-educated women, as strongly next November as last November. They need to pick up one or both of the Georgia seatsâ€”incumbent David Perdue and a seat expected to be vacated by Johnny Isakson, who is stepping down for health reasonsâ€”and/or beating Thom Tillis of North Carolina. That means suburban voters outside of Atlanta, Charlotte and the Research Triangle being as angry at Republicans as we saw in so many Southern Congressional races last year.
Or, they could pick up Iowa or an open seat in Kansas, but the latter is likely possible only if controversial former Secretary of State Kris Kobach wins the GOP nomination. Beyond that, beating John Cornyn in Texas and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky seem a bit too far for Democrats to win this time.
Responding to what Charlie Cook wrote (but not with too many points), I estimate the 2020 Democrats would have to win the U.S. Popular Vote by at least +4 for U.S. President and +5 for U.S. Senate.
The four-point, popular-vote margin for U.S. President gets Donald Trump to underperform, and become unseated, and if the votes are not so overly distributed (as they were in 2016) in California vs. other states, it would render 2020 Democratic pickups of Michigan, Pennsylvania, tipping point state Wisconsin, Florida, Nebraskaâ€™s 2nd Congressional District, Arizona, and North Carolina. (A total 334 electoral votes.) A +5 margin would bring in Georgia. (A total 350 electoral votes.)
For the U.S. Senate, that +5 would flip Republican-held U.S. Senate seats in Democratic-aligned states Colorado (unseating Cory Gardner) and Maine (watch for incumbent Susan Collins to possibly opt for retirement; her internal poll numbers would inform that decision). Offsetting a Republican pickup of Alabama (because the state is typically one the partyâ€™s ten best in margins; that would unseat Doug Jones), the additional 2020 Democratic U.S. Senate pickups would come from North Carolina (which has delivered same-party carriage, for U.S. President and U.S. Senate, since 1972) as well as the specials in Arizona and Georgia (which also has a regularly scheduled election on the schedule).
This is based on, and I cannot know this for fact (here in September 2019), an outcome that would see 2020 become a wave election for the Democrats. And, frankly, a wave would likely become more than that +4 or +5 and in the area of +7 to +10. (That obviously means more Democratic pickups in states at both the presidential and senatorial levels.) In a situation like this, it would be addressing the performance by an incumbent president of the United States who is incredibly unpopularâ€”with a trend in declining support in his own partyâ€”and that the country wants him out. (Given the historical fact that the presidency doesnâ€™t often switch parties in two consecutive presidential election cycles, the 2020 Democrats need a 40-year parallel following the 1980 Republicans. That what Democratic incumbent Jimmy Carter was in 1980 the Republican incumbent Donald Trump will become in 2020. Rememberâ€”when Reagan unseated Carter, the U.S. Senate also become a majority pickup for the opposition party.)
Given the fact that ~ regardless of the case made against him ~ Trump is NOT going to be convicted by the Senate, Democrat efforts to impeach in the House are a complete and total waste of time, effort, energy, and money: the politicians’ and their staffs’, his and his lawyers’, and most of all and importantly, the American citizens’, taxpayers’, and voters.’
The only people who will benefit from it are the politicians vying for air time, those in the media marketing and selling this whole reality-tv show, and the folks scripting and choreographing the whole goat-rope for the people in Swampland at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue: their owners, operators, and handlers over on J and up on Wall Streets.
Those people ~ in both chambers of the US Congress ~ have infinitely more important things to worry about and do: like address this nation’s $23 trillion debt, its projected perpetual trillion dollar federal deficits, and the looming bankruptcy of Social Security/Medicare/Medicaid. To say nothing of ending an unconstitutional Forever War.
Impeachment is just another in a long line of distractions to keep everybody totally oblivious to what is really going on up there in Swampland. Plus, it will only serve to make next year’s election campaign even uglier, nastier, and more prone to stupidity, ignorance, and intellectual and physical violence than it already was going to be.
Questions people should start asking themselves at this point include: Will there even be an election on November 3, 2020? And if there is, will there be an Inauguration on January 21, 2021? Regardless of who loses? And if there is that, will the United States still be around to celebrate its 250th birthday on July 4, 2026, regardless of who wins in 2020?
Disagree with Jeffrey. Trump is a crook and Democrats need to impeach him.
Even if and tho there is absolutely no way that he is going convicted by the Senate? And what exactly will the Democrats accomplish by that other than waste more taxpayer and citizen time, effort, energy, and money? And give politicians lots n lots of face time? And give the media something to rave and rant about?
What GOOD will impeachment do the American People? Or the Planet.
Can You or anybody articulate that?
Seconded, Leia. Democrats can walk and chew gum at the same time. And we the people can help by voting Blue.
Why Democrats are wrong to be afraid to impeach Trump: https://www.needtoimpeach.com/political-case/
Exactly, Former Republican. They CAN make the case for impeachment while addressing important issues at the same time – climate change, gun safety, healthcare, etc.
The ONLY reason the Democrats want to impeach is because they think it will help them in 2020; and on this score, they are sorely mistaken.
What the Democrats COULD do is get a Joint Congressional Resolution passed that mandates that:
1. Trump will not initiate military action against the Peoples, Nation, Land, and Government of Iran without seeking and getting a formal Declaration of War by the Congress of the United States.
2. And that failure to do so will constitute Grounds for Impeachment.
How many Democrats would go along with THAT alternative to impeaching for emoluments violations and other abuses of power? Do You think any of the front-running candidates for President would? Do You think that the American people would?
What Democrat wants to limit the War-Making Power of the President? Especially when they know that a Democrat will get to wage that War someday.
Jeffrey – Quit thinking so cynical. Have some faith.
It’s not about scoring points. Impeachment is important to show Trump that he is not above the law. If you don’t impeach him, he’ll continue to act like he’s a king.
There is a fine line between cynicism and realism, Rational Lefty. And “faith” ~ just like “hope” ~ is not a method.
Seconded, Rational Lefty. Jeffrey lacks hope, which is why he keeps posting cynical comments.
And when he’s exonerated by the Senate, then how is he going to act? And how will the Democrats benefit by his being not convicted by the Senate?
Acting on impeachment would force Senate Republicans to publicly stand with Mr. Trump â€” just as theyâ€™ve stood with him as heâ€™s willfully obstructed justice, profited off the presidency, and brazenly lied to the public. In the 2018 midterm elections, the American people made it clear they do not want representatives who are blindly devoted to Mr. Trump. Instead, they want people in office who will hold him accountable, and if Republicans continue to stick by the President, let them do so on the record.
The impeachment process can sway public opinion and force a reckoning among the Presidentâ€™s partisan defenders. Fewer than 30% of Americans wanted Richard Nixon impeached when the House Judiciary Committee began its investigation. But after the Committee uncovered evidence, and the public had the opportunity to hear sworn testimony on live television and judge President Nixonâ€™s corrupt wrongdoing for themselves, support for Nixonâ€™s ouster soared to 57%.
The stage is already set for a Trump reckoning. Most Americans strongly dislike Mr. Trump; 55% of independents disapprove of his presidency, and 30% of conservatives say they wonâ€™t vote for him in 2020. Those feelings only intensify when public hearings like Michael Cohenâ€™s or the release of the redacted Mueller report dominate the news. The impeachment process would remind these voters why they donâ€™t approve of this lawless president.
Leia, post Steyer’s full memo.
1. If “a majority” of Americans disapprove of the job he is doing, a solid 40-45% approve of it, and have approved of it since inauguration..
2. The last major polls [late August] indicate that a solid majority of Americans do NOT want him impeached. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/08/22/poll-majority-americans-dont-want-donald-trump-impeached/2090155001/
Correct me if i am wrong, but wasn’t that Memo written in May? Has anything changed since then?
Ok. Here is the case for impeachment in full.
For two years, members of Congress have wanted to â€œwait and seeâ€ special counsel Robert Muellerâ€™s report before making any decisions about impeachment. Now that Muellerâ€™s report has arrived, and the special counsel is expected to testify before Congress, these members will have to decide if they are going to act on the evidence federal investigators uncovered, or choose to ignore Donald Trumpâ€™s crimes.
Muellerâ€™s team â€‹exposedâ€‹ at least 140 contacts between the Kremlin and the Trump team, â€‹nettedâ€‹ 199 criminal charges, 37 indictments or guilty pleas, and 5 prison sentences. Their report shows that the president and his team knew about what the Russians were up to; that they asked for, welcomed, and received help from Moscow; and then lied to cover their tracks. They also presented evidence showing that Donald Trump obstructed justice. Roughly 800â€‹ â€‹former federal prosecutors agree that had Mr. Trump been anyone other than a sitting president, he would be facing multiple felony charges. In short, Muellerâ€™s report is an impeachment referral in everything but name.
Already, almost every House Democrat agrees that Donald Trump participated in â€œâ€‹highly unethical and unscrupulous behaviorâ€‹.â€ House Democrats routinely say he â€‹betrays the Constitutionâ€‹ and â€‹attacks our democracyâ€‹; they claim he is â€‹worse than Nixonâ€‹. They already know Mr. Trumpâ€™s wrongdoing merits impeachment. And though know that Congress is duty bound to protect the rule of law, many Democrats in the House oppose beginning impeachment hearings to do so. These Democrats insist that impeachment would be too divisive, that Senate Republicans will never vote to remove Donald Trump from office, and there will be a price to pay for impeachment come Election Day.
Their opposition is based overwhelmingly on political considerations. Not only is that the wrong framework for making this decision, these well-meaning Democrats are coming to the wrong conclusions. Impeachment is not just the right thing to doâ€”itâ€™s politically smart, too.
REPUBLICANS DIDNâ€™T PAY A POLITICAL PRICE FOR IMPEACHING BILL CLINTON
Opponents to impeachment like to point to the fact that Republicans faced a political backlash for impeaching Bill Clinton, and if Democrats attempt to impeach Mr. Trump today, they will similarly pay a political price. This argument holds no water.
To start with, Republicans did not suffer significant consequences after they impeached President Clinton. In the very next election after impeachment, Republicans maintained their majorities in the House and Senate, and George W. Bush was able to take the presidency by running against the scandal by promising to restore â€œâ€‹honor and dignity to the White Houseâ€‹.â€ During that campaign, there was far more pressure from reporters on Al Gore to constantly justify his decision to stand by Bill Clinton than there was on any Republican to justify their support for impeachment.
The analogy between the two also ignores another critical contrast: Bill Clinton was popular and Donald Trump is not. From the release of the Starr Report until Election Day, President Clintonâ€™s approval ratings never dropped below â€‹63 percentâ€‹, and it was above 60 for the entirety of the Lewinksy investigation. Donald Trumpâ€™s average approval ratings, on the other hand, have never risen above â€‹45 percentâ€‹. The political implications of impeaching a popular president will obviously differ from those of impeaching an unpopular one.
In additionâ€‹, â€‹ the public viewed President Clintonâ€™s purported wrongdoing (lying about an affair) as unrelated to his job and as the culmination of a six-year partisan campaign to destroy his Presidency. The charges against Mr. Trump are far more seriousâ€”obstructing an investigation into an attack on the United States.
There is also historical evidence to suggest that impeachment can be politically advantageous. After Nixon (who was also â€‹unpopularâ€‹) was forced to resign, Democrats picked up â€‹49 seatsâ€‹ in the House and â€‹four seatsâ€‹ in the Senate. And, Jimmy Carter was later able to win the White House by telling Americans â€œâ€‹we just want the truth againâ€‹.â€
IMPEACHMENT HEARINGS CAN FOCUS THE PUBLICâ€™S ATTENTION
Those who are scared of the politics of impeachment also believe it canâ€™t work. If Senate Republicans will never vote to convict Donald Trump, their logic goes, whatâ€™s the point? They ignore that: (1) the facts favor impeachment; and (2) televised impeachment hearings put a spotlight on Mr. Trumpâ€™s crimes, which could take control of the political narrative and sway popular opinion.
When the House Judiciary committee â€‹started consideringâ€‹ possibly impeaching Nixon hearings, less than â€‹30 percent supported removing Nixon from office. By the time Nixon resigned, â€‹57 percentâ€‹ thought he should be removed from office.
Far more Americans â€‹support Mr. Trumpâ€™s impeachment right nowâ€‹â€”and within the last year, weâ€™ve already seen those numbers rise following televised congressional testimony. After Americans watched Michael Cohen testify under oath before the House Oversight Committee, support of impeachment rose â€‹6 percentâ€‹.
Following the Mueller reportâ€™s release, â€‹56 percentâ€‹ of Americans now believe Donald Trump or his campaign committed crimes, and â€‹53 percentâ€‹ who had heard of the Special Counselâ€™s report said they thought Muellerâ€™s team found evidence that Mr. Trump obstructed justice. Still, the American people do not yet have a full understanding of the crimes, corruption, and coverups that Donald Trump and his inner circle orchestrated. CNN found that â€‹only three percent â€‹ of Americans said that they have read the entire Mueller report. That suggests we have not reached the ceiling.
Nobody can say with certainty how public opinion will change once impeachment hearings have commenced or how that will affect our elected officials, but if Democrats donâ€™t act to take control of the narrative, Mr. Trump will. This investigation involves everything from counter-intelligence and foreign business dealings to campaign finance violations and cover-ups. Instead of relying on evidence coming haphazardly from various committees, impeachment provides Democrats the best opportunity to present this evidence in a coherent, compelling fashion, and more fully control the narrative. The White House will have a far more difficult time spinning if the American people get to see and hear everything over the course of a single, neat process, designed so they can judge for themselves if charges should be adopted.
Impeachment would also put Democrats on a â€‹stronger legal footingâ€‹ to get this evidence out to the people than they would be sticking to a committee process. Theyâ€™ll need it. Mr. Trump has vowed to stonewall â€œâ€‹allâ€‹â€ House subpoenas and thwart any congressional investigation. His administration has already â€‹refusedâ€‹ to release Muellerâ€™s full report. Delaying an impeachment for further unspecified investigations allows Mr. Trump to arrive at the election unsullied and denies Americans access to the evidence Mueller uncovered.
No matter what might happen after an impeachment vote, Americans deserve to know the full truth before they cast their ballots on Election Day.
EVEN A FAILED IMPEACHMENT WILL PUT REPUBLICANS ON DEFENSE
Some argue that if the Senate does not convict Mr. Trump, he will claim vindication and take that as an opening for a victory lap. Knowing everything we do about Mr. Trump, itâ€™s obvious that he will falsely claim heâ€™s been cleared of wrongdoing either way. In fact, he already is. Heâ€™s using Attorney General Bill Barrâ€™s summary of the Mueller report to claim: â€œâ€‹No Collusion, No Obstruction, Complete and Total EXONERATIONâ€‹.â€
Perhaps more important is what would happen if, after the impeachment process establishes ample grounds for Mr. Trumpâ€™s removal, Senate Republicans stand steadfast by his side. The last two years have shown that there is a political price for protecting this president. Mr. â€‹Trump was not on the ballot in 2018, but he might as well have been. By and large, House Democrats ran on a â€‹platformâ€‹ of holding Donald Trump accountable. NBC exit polls showed that â€‹94 percentâ€‹ of Democrats cast their votes in the House elections as a way to express opposition to Donald Trump. â€‹We have no reason to doubt voters will continue to hold Republicans accountable if they continue to protect him and excuse blatant corruption. If Senate Republicans want to allow an attack on our democracy, then, they should be forced to do so on the record, and defend that decision for the rest of their careers.
If the House refuses to impeach Mr. Trump, however, he can say that everyoneâ€”Democrat and Republican alikeâ€”agrees heâ€™s innocent. His claim of exoneration will hold no water, however, if it rests on partisans like Mitch McConnell.
CONGRESS CANNOT PUT IMPEACHMENT OFF ANY LONGER
Democrats shouldnâ€™t refuse to meet their constitutional responsibility simply because they assume Republicans will do the same. Even if the Senate wonâ€™t remove Mr. Trump from office, the country cannot afford setting a precedent that that his actions were unimpeachable. Waiting for Republican permission means handing control over to them. That canâ€™t work.
We know with absolute certainty that Donald Trumpâ€™s abuse of power and assault on democracy is not over. If the members of the House of Representatives do not even â€‹try â€‹ to begin the effort to remove Mr. Trump from office, each new example of his contempt for the rule of law will raise more questions about â€‹their â€‹ decision to allow him to remain in office. And the blame will be shared.
If Americans see Democrats as too scared to act, the party will seem weak. If they think Democrats are prolonging investigations to score political points, they will be seen as cynical and uncaring. But, if voters see Democrats doing their jobs and tackling their constitutional responsibilities without regard to political cost, voters will reward them.
DONâ€™T WORRY ABOUT DONALD TRUMPâ€™S BASE
Donald Trump has always been unpopular with the public at large, but he has always enjoyed strong support among Republicans, and there is no reason to expect that to changeâ€”regardless of what Democrats do. Mr. Trump only has one trick: base politics. But he plays it well. Refusing to act out of fear that it might energize a Republican base which will inevitably be energized anyway only risks de-motivating the â€‹Democratic base.
In 2018, Republican voters turned out to vote despite Trumpâ€™s unpopularity, a rarity for the presidentâ€™s party in midterm elections. Republicans turned out 11 million more Republican votes in â€‹2018â€‹ than in â€‹2014â€‹, when Republicans â€‹gained â€‹ â€‹13 seatsâ€‹ in the House. In 2018, Democrats gained â€‹40 seatsâ€‹, not because Republicans stayed home, but because of massive turnout by Democrats. Nor has energetic Republican support for Mr. Trump lagged due to the GOPâ€™s 2018 losses: â€‹89 percentâ€‹ of Republicans currently approve of the job Donald Trump is doing, and the interest his voters haveâ€‹ in the 2020 campaign has already reached levels typically seen only weeks before Election Day. The lesson is simple: even an unpopular Donald Trump will enjoy strong support and high turnout among Republican voters.
For Democrats to win in 2020, they must sustain historic turnout increases among Democratic voters. In â€‹2018â€‹, Democrats turned out 25 million more votes than they did in â€‹2014â€‹, while Republicans only managed 11 million more. Thatâ€™s roughly a 60 percent increase for Democrats.
Research conducted by the Analyst Institute shows that GOTV efforts are far more effective at winning elections than current persuasion tactics typically employed by campaigns. Focusing on energizing the Democratic base, then, will be key to victoryâ€”and House Democrats can help that effort by impeaching Mr. Trump. About â€‹70 percentâ€‹ of Democratic voters favor impeachment. CNN found thatâ€‹ â€‹71 percentâ€‹ of Democrats and Democratic leaning independent voters thought it was very or somewhat important that the Democratic candidate for president supports impeachment. Holding Donald Trump accountable could therefore boost Democratic turnout.
House Democrats know voters are fed up with Washington corruption. If Democrats stand down in the face of Mr. Trumpâ€™s clear abuse of power, they risk looking like they put politics ahead of cleaning up Washington. Opposition to Mr. Trump inspired millions to march, protest, to run for office. The activists, volunteers, and Democratic voters who delivered a House majority want to see their party standing up to Donald Trump. We shouldnâ€™t let them down.
IMPEACHMENT WILL NOT TURN OFF INDEPENDENT VOTERS
Thereâ€™s a debate within the party about how to replicate those numbers next year. Party leadership side argues that Democrats must focus on flipping independents and â€œmoderates.â€ But â€‹there are fewer swing voters than ever beforeâ€‹. Electoral success relies less and less on persuading voters and more and more on turning out voters who agree with you.
Josh Kalla of Berkely and David Broockman from Stanford â€‹foundâ€‹ that for persuasion to work, it needs to be done far in advance of an election, and either present new information or information that reinforces votersâ€™ existing beliefs. These conclusions offer additional reasons to pursue impeachment.
First, we have more than 18 months until election day, and â€‹75 percentâ€‹ of Americans have not read â€‹any â€‹of the redacted Mueller report. Second, independent voters already have a strong aversion to Donald Trump (â€‹41-25â€‹). Polling shows they find him â€‹dishonest and arrogantâ€‹. Even before the Mueller report came out, â€‹60 percentâ€‹ of
independent voters believe that Mr. Trump committed crimes before he was president, and a plurality thought he committed crimes while in office.
Again, a comparison to 1998 is useful: Throughout the Lewinsky investigation, Bill Clintonâ€™s Gallup approval ratings â€‹among independents â€‹ was comfortably in the â€‹60sâ€‹. Mr. Trumpâ€™s Gallup approval among independents have been in the â€‹30sâ€‹ throughout his presidency.
The electoral importance of independent voters is frequently overstated, but insofar as their concerns are a priority, Democrats should understand that they strongly dislike the president. Proving Mr. Trump is a criminal will only reinforce what they already believe.
DONâ€™T WORRY ABOUT CURRENT POLLING
Those who are skeptical of impeachment argue that there isnâ€™t enough public support to begin hearings. They point out that only â€‹45 percentâ€‹ support impeaching Donald Trump.
In 2018, millions of Americans turned out to give Congress a mandate to hold Donald Trump accountable. CNN’s exit poll showed that â€‹92 percentâ€‹ of Democrats supported impeaching Mr. Trump on election day. Since that time, sâ€‹upport for impeachment has run up against opposition from Democratic leadership. In March, Nancy Pelosi famously said that impeaching Mr. Trump is â€œâ€‹just not worth itâ€‹,â€ and that has been attitude from most of the Democrats who control the House.
The energy and enthusiasm for impeachment will return when our political leaders stand with the base of Democratic Party. Fortunately, we are already seeing signs of that happening, with prominent Democrats such as Elizabeth Warrenâ€‹, â€‹Kamala Harrisâ€‹, â€‹Beto Oâ€™Rourkeâ€‹, â€‹Julian Castroâ€‹, â€‹Pete Buttigiegâ€‹, and â€‹Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez speaking out about Donald Trumpâ€™s alarming abuse of power and the need for Congress to hold him accountable. Their voices are one reason why support for impeachment has rebounded since the drop following Speaker Pelosiâ€™s comments.
Congress has a constitutional duty to pursue impeachment. It should stand up to a president who is wholly unfit for office and protect the rule of law. As Elizabeth Warren has said: â€œThere is no political inconvenience exception to the Constitution.â€ Electoral considerations should not control decisions about removing a president from office. This matter is too important, and the stakes are too high. But those who are concerned that there are political dangers to impeachment should know that there is a greater danger of inaction. The political arguments against it are fundamentally flawed. Ultimately, it offers Democrats a chance to better control the narrative, put Republicans on the defensive, and can put this issue to rest sooner rather than later.
Pursuing impeachment is not just the right thing to do, itâ€™s good politics. It is time that Congress impeach Donald Trump.
“Pursuing impeachment is not just the right thing to do, itâ€™s good politics. It is time that Congress impeach Donald Trump.”
Oh, it’s Great politics, all right. It allows the Democrats and the Republicans to completely avoid dealing with: the $23 trillion national debt; the $ trillion dollar forever-deficits they both built into debt ceiling limit deal; and the looming bankruptcy of Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid. To say nothing of Cheney’s and Obama’s “Forever War.”
Yeah…. Great Politics, indeed and in deed. It’s that kind of politics that is making America “great” again.
The Trump Ukraine scandal is triggering new calls for impeachment.
Republicans aren’t going to protect Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid. They want to get rid of those programs.
The House has been passing bills concerning healthcare, veterans issues, infrastructure, etc. The problem is, Mitch McConnell won’t bring them to the floor in the Senate.
And so how is impeaching Trump in the House and then no conviction in the Senate going to save Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid?
That’s why it’s important for Mitch McConnell to be defeated.
No conviction in the Senate will encourage voters to flip the Senate from Red to Blue.
i notice that nobody has reacted or responded to the facts noted earlier; ie:
1. If â€œa majorityâ€ of Americans disapprove of the job he is doing, a solid 40-45% approve of it, and have approved of it since inauguration..
2. The last major polls [late August] indicate that a solid majority of Americans do NOT want him impeached. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/08/22/poll-majority-americans-dont-want-donald-trump-impeached/2090155001/
Do these numbers have any bearing on the conversation?
The only ones who like Trump are Republicans. Independents hate him, so do Democrats.
Matchup polls consistently show him being beaten by the top 2020 Democratic candidates.
And what about that solid majority that does NOT want impeachment? What are they? Any Democrats or Independents among them?
By the numbers, there Has to be some folks who disapprove of the job he is doing who also do not want impeachment.
What does that have to do with whether or not he should be impeached?
If You’re so sure that anybody can beat Trump in 2020, why bother with the waste of time, energy, effort, and money of impeachment [with guaranteed no conviction]?
Folks, quit talking to him. Like D, all he wants to do is argue.
Heh. Yeah; i suppose that’s one way of classifying an attempt to explore a situation from a bit different perspective than that of the Echo Chamber News Silo. It’s funny how i get a similar reaction attempting to chat with the folks over on Breitbart. Maybe i’ll try Common Dreams. They are as fired up about impeachment without conviction as Y’All.
Our views are like Daily Kos in regards to impeachment.
Another place our views match is the comments section of Huffington Post articles.
Speaking of left-wing news sites, what’s up with Think Progress? They haven’t had any news updates since early September.
Like i said on the NYT blog:
Common Dreams; Daily Kos; Huffington Post,and so forth: one Echo Chamber/News Silo.
Breitbart, Fox, Drudge, and so forth, … another Echo Chamber/News Silo.
No wonder this country is not simply divided, but on the edge of fracturing, if not disintegration. Sort of like it was 160 years ago on the eve of the First American Civil War.
re ThinkProgress: https://www.thedailybeast.com/thinkprogress-a-top-progressive-news-site-is-shutting-down
Although I don’t agree with everything Common Dreams, Daily Kos, Huffington Post, and so forth, say, they at least tell the truth about what’s going on in the world.
Breitbart, Fox, Drudge, and so forth, tell lies.
So Common Dreams, Daily Kos, Huffington Post, and so forth, tell nothing But “the truth” about whatâ€™s going on in the world?
And Breitbart, Fox, Drudge, and so forth tell nothing But “lies”?.
Well, that certainly makes it easy to decide which one to believe, eh?
I read your comments here, and following a previous blog topic by Ronald, but am not aware yet if you have posted responses to additional topics.
However new you are to posting hereâ€”welcome!
Thank You, D. i assume You’re the chap that Southern Liberal said i’m like and how to deal with me: “Folks, quit talking to him. Like D, all he wants to do is argue.”
Some folks just don’t seem to grasp the difference between argument and exploratory discussion. They often also seem to have difficulty distinguishing between criticism and critique, eh?
It’s interesting comparing the reactions and responses i get here with the ones i’ve gotten on Breitbart. Not the content, of course, but the substance: That it’s My [Our] Way or the highway, with lots of UnAnswered Questions and UnQuestioned Answers all around.
Folks, he’s admitted he’s from Breitbart. I was suspicious he was a right winger.
Time for bed now. Good night.
I’ve been suspicious as well.
D – We are reassuring him that he shouldn’t be afraid about impeachment. He refuses to listen to that.
During the summer, Democrats in Trump districts were grilled by voters regarding impeachment. There are videos on Facebook, Twitter, etc. None of these voters were part of any organized effort.
Trumpty Dumbty had a meltdown this morning on the White House lawn. Biden must have gotten under his skin yesterday.
It doesn’t matter which side of the aisle he’s on. He’s in the minority on this matter. 60 to 70 percent of Americans want Trumpty Dumbty gone, some way, somehow. If it’s a lightning strike on the golf course, we’ll happily take that.
And, 55% don’t want him impeached because they know that it is a perfect example of “Opportunity Cost.”
And, rest assured, i am not”afraid” of impeachment. i just know that it will accomplish nothing but divert attention from the real problems [indeed crises] confronting this Nation.
“A right winger,” eh? Heh.
Southern Liberal, my position doesn’t exist on Your simplistic Left-Right seesaw.
Rustbelt – You are absolutely correct!
The thing is, you can use the vote against conviction in the Senate as a strong campaign tactic against those GOP senators who vote to acquit to their detriment. Any Senator who votes to acquit may find their reelection chances severely reduced.
We grew up in the era of Watergate. Public opinion was against impeachment of Nixon at first, but changed once the hearings began. Don’t worry about the current polling.
The question shouldn’t be does America want it. It should be does Trump qualify. The truth there is that yes he un-equivocally does. It is the duty, the responsibility of congress to provide executive branch oversight. To hold anyone responsible for defying constitutional mandates or criminal activity to account. That said, Trump’s constitutional and lawful transgressions are front and center for all to see. Be everything republicans are not, decent law abiding people with no qualms about the possible ill effects of doing the proper thing regardless of the politics. Do your job and let the cards fall where they may.
It has been clear for sometime that Trump has broken laws and has been unethical in a variety of ways. With the country divided, it is not really a question of whether people want a clear verdict, because many will not accept it as such regardless of what can and cannot be proven. The question is: Do the Democrats have the nerve to do what must be done, regardless of whether the Senate would vote for impeachment. Doing what is right is the only way that the message can be sent to future presidents that we as a nation will not tolerate this unlawful and unethical behavior. Not to impeach will set a precedent that this country will have difficulty in overcoming as time goes forward.
As you know, Rational Lefty, and Southern Liberal, totally in agreement with both of you!
Well stated, Southern and Rational. So that’s Y’All’s arguments and i’ve presented mine. Now we’ll just have to wait and see what happens: if impeachment happens, and if it does, then what.
Why are Schumer and Pelosi so dead set against impeachment?
We’ll wait and see what happens. Only thing we agree on.
Even though you are against it, the Ukraine drama could give Democrats no choice but to impeach Trump.