The “Sunshine” State, Florida, where this author and blogger has resided for the past three decades, is notable for extremely close elections, but with Republicans in control of the state legislature, the Governorship, and the majority of Congressional seats and both Senate seats in 2019.
But with former felons now able to vote in the future, and the number of Puerto Rican migrants who have settled in the central part of the state, it is clear that Florida might in the next decade move toward a greater opportunity for the Democratic Party to start winning the state in the Presidential elections in the 2020s, and slowly start to have an opportunity to win state legislative control, and possible future state executive control in the long run.
Right now, the three most prominent statewide officials, all Republicans, are Governor Ron DeSantis, and Senators Marco Rubio and Rick Scott. It is conceivable that all three could be potential GOP Presidential contenders in 2024, with DeSantis and Rubio now only in their 40s.
But if the Democrats can somehow develop a “bench”, not easy to do, the opportunities for Democratic advancement are possible.
The biggest issue is that there is no one Florida, but multiple Floridas, as North Florida is Southern, Central Florida tends to be Midwest. and South Florida is Northeast. The key battleground is Central Florida, and Puerto Rican growth, along with former felons all over the state voting, could transform the state over time.
In response to this thread—with a focus on the state of Florida—I am going to repeat some points I made in a previous blog by Ronald, “If Texas Went ‘Blue’ in 2020, The Midwest Would No Longer Be Essential for Democratic Hold on White House†(March 11, 2019 @ https://www.theprogressiveprofessor.com/?p=36308).
Florida has voted with every presidential winner, other than Democratic pickup winners John Kennedy (1960) and Bill Clinton (1992), since 1928. Its best companion state has been Ohio, because that state voted with all presidential winners, except prevailing Democrats Franklin Roosevelt (1944) and John Kennedy (a pickup winner in 1960), since 1896.
Ohio is now trending away from being a bellwether to shade more red by companions to the nation. In the 2018 midterm elections, the Ohio U.S. House vote was won by the Republicans with a margin of +5.27. But, nationwide, the Democrats—with their party having flipped the U.S. House—won by +8.59. Ohio did not deliver any Democratic U.S. House pickups. Contrast to Florida. While the Buckeye State did not reflect the overall results, the Sunshine State was the only state which matched overall incomes for party majorities for U.S. House (a Democratic majority pickup), U.S. Senate (a Republican hold), and U.S. Governors (a Republican hold).
The 2018 Democrats flipped the U.S. House with +40 seats. (North Carolina #09 is pending.) This was through 21 states. (If another Democratic gain happens in the Tar Heel State, that would be 22.) Florida delivered to the Democrats +2 in gains. So, that one state alone reflected the national average. In the U.S. Senate, while the Democrats flipped +2 seats (Arizona and Nevada), the Republicans counter-flipped +4 (Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota and, from the only applicable bellwether state, Florida). For U.S. Governors, the Democrats went into the November 2018 general election with 16 governorships. They needed a net gain of +10 to win an outright majority of 26. The Democrats flipped +7. Florida was one that did not flip. The states which did were: Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. Had the Democrats reached that needed +10, the states which would have also delivered were: Georgia, Iowa and, yes, Florida.
The 2018 margin for U.S. Governors was Democratic +3.07, a pickup from 2014 that was Republicans +4.09. 2018 Florida was a margin, for Ron DeSantis, of +0.40. This suggested the Democrats needed an even stronger national shift to get Florida to flip with Georgia and Iowa, which had Republican hold margins of +1.39 and +2.73. With the average net gains being +1.02 with each percentage point nationally shifted, the 2018 Democrats needed a U.S. Popular Vote margin close to +6 to win over a new majority of U.S. Governors.
When it comes to margins in the state of Florida, at the presidential level, it has been within five points from national outcomes since 1996. Here were the results:
• 1996 Florida: Bill Clinton (D, pickup), +5.70; U.S. Popular Vote: Clinton (D, re-elected), +8.51; Spread: 2.81
• 2000 Florida: George W. Bush (R, pickup), +0.01; U.S. Popular Vote: Al Gore (D), +0.51 (Adjusted to Normally Aligned Voting Pattern: Bush, R pickup, +2.5); Spread: 0.52 (Adjustment to Normally Aligned Voting Pattern: Approximately 2.5 points in spread)
• 2004 Florida: George W. Bush (R), +5.01; U.S. Popular Vote: Bush (R, pickup on that count but also re-elected), +2.46; Spread: 2.55
• 2008 Florida: Barack Obama (D, pickup), +2.81; U.S. Popular Vote: Obama (D, pickup); Spread: 4.45
• 2012 Florida: Barack Obama (D, re-elected), +0.88; U.S. Popular Vote: Obama (D, re-elected), +3.86; Spread: 2.98
• 2016 Florida: Donald Trump (R, pickup), +1.19; U.S. Popular Vote: Hillary Clinton (D), +2.09 (Adjusted to Normally Aligned Voting Pattern: Trump, R pickup, +2); Spread: 3.28 (Adjustment to Normally Aligned Voting Pattern: Approximately 1 point in spread)
Since 1964, Ohio has an unbroken streak of having voted with all presidential winners. That numbers at 14 consecutive election cycles. The historical record is 16, shared by both Nevada and New Mexico, from 1912 to 1972. With exception of 1992, Florida has a nearly-perfectly shared record with Ohio since the year 1964. (The last occurrence in which both did not side with a presidential winner was 1960.) But, in 2016, a Republican pickup of the presidency for Donald Trump, Ohio voted 7 points more Republican than Florida. I adjusted Trump’s actual –2.09 margin, in the U.S. Popular Vote, to +2 to indicate that would have been his estimated margin (coming after 2000 Republican pickup winner George W. Bush and 2008 Democratic pickup winner Barack Obama) had the states had a more unified shift nationwide to also deliver a GOP pickup of the U.S. Popular Vote to Trump. In that case, Ohio was about 6 points more Republican, compared to the nation, while Florida was slightly under—and clearly more reflective. (I also noted that the average margin from Trump’s six pickup states—Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—was +3.39.)
What this means is Ohio is more poised to lose its bellwether status while Florida retains; the Ohio will experience a coming presidential election cycle in which a Democrat wins the presidency while a losing Republican holds Ohio. In fact, I get the sense Ohio and Texas are about to trade: Ohio is about to become Republican while Texas is about to become a bellwether state. But while that manifests, Florida—which has been carried with an unbroken streak of 6 consecutive elections thus far (1996 to 2016)—is continue its elections streaks. That, unlike Ohio, Florida still maintained a 2016 record of closely reflecting national results. That, in 2018, Florida did it again. Of the Top 10 populous state with the most certainty of retaining a record for voting with presidential winners, Florida is poised to continue doing so for a few more election cycles that may go through not only the 2020s but also the 2030s (which number five more). Pennsylvania and Michigan will vote again with the winner in 2020, making it four consecutive elections they will side with the winner; that Trump having flipped them, in 2016, can mean they are realigning their party identification just as other select states did with previous White House party switches of 1968, 1976, 1980, 1992, 2000, and 2008. (Those were select states which have since not flipped back to the party which lost them.)
So, I am going to repeat—but also adjust—my estimation of the estimated order Top 10 states for which are trending carriage for future Democratic and Republican winners. Notice where Florida falls.
(Map: https://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/3oXGQ.png .)
* * * DEMOCRATIC PICKUP YEAR * * *
1. California
2. New York or Illinois
3. Illinois or New York
4. North Carolina (pickup)
[U.S. Popular Vote margin falls here]
5. Georgia or Florida (pickup)
[U.S. Popular Vote margin falls here]
6. Florida or Georgia (pickup)
[U.S. Popular Vote margin falls here]
7. Texas (pickup)
8. Michigan — a narrow Democratic pickup or a narrow Republican hold if the range of carried states are still 26 to 32 (or 52 to 64 percent)
9. Pennsylvania — at least a half-point more Republican than Michigan; flips if a pickup-winning Democrat carries at least 40 states
10. Ohio — between three to six points more Republican than Pennsylvania
* * * REPUBLICAN PICKUP YEAR * * *
1. Ohio
2. Pennsylvania
3. Michigan
4. Texas (pickup)
5. Florida or Georgia (pickup)
[U.S. Popular Vote margin falls here]
6. Georgia or Florida (pickup)
[U.S. Popular Vote margin falls here]
7. North Carolina (pickup)
[U.S. Popular Vote margin falls here]
8. Illinois or New York — a narrow Republican pickup or a narrow Democratic hold if the range of carried states are still 26 to 32 (or 52 to 64 percent of nation’s states)
9. New York or Illinois — one of them would be the No. 9 likely for a Republican who wins 40 states
10. California — margins between this and the two previous states are not easily predictable; but, California will likely be the No. 1 best state for Democrats and the worst for Republicans who, frankly, would have to have more than 40 states to carry all of the Top 10 populous states