We are in the midst of Republican candidates engaged in mud throwing and character assassination.
Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are bitterly engaged in this, but so are Marco Rubio with Jeb Bush, Chris Christie with Marco Rubio, and Carly Fiorina showing an ugly personality of arrogance and inability to tell the truth on anything.
Only one candidate, and a very qualified one, is avoiding the bloodbath going on, but will that mean that common sense will reign, and that Ohio Governor John Kasich will be the Republican Presidential nominee?
Kasich has moved up in New Hampshire, and has a chance to do very well there, while having just about zero chance in evangelical Republican Iowa.
No one matches John Kasich in his total government experience, his knowledge of national and state government, and his rational nature.
This is not saying that John Kasich is an ideal candidate, and most certainly, this blogger would not vote for him, but IF the nation should end up with a Republican President following Barack Obama, there is no better choice than John Kasich, of the candidates who are announced for President on the Republican side of the equation!
This blogger predicted on December 31 the likelihood that Marco Rubio would be the Presidential nominee, and that Kasich would be the Vice Presidential nominee. That still seems to make sense, and Kasich being on the ticket at either end would be a plus for the GOP, as every Republican President who has ever been elected from Lincoln to George W. Bush has won Ohio, and note that Gerald Ford lost the full term for the Presidency in 1976, greatly due to the failure to defeat Jimmy Carter in Ohio.
So if common sense reigned, Kasich would be the nominee with the best chance to win, but will he? Highly unlikely!
Common sense went out the door when Republicans embraced the Tea Party.
Assuming no one drops out of the race today [Tuesday, 01.19.2016], here is my take on the 12 remaining Republican presidential hopefuls (but not necessarily listed in order of importance):
REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES:
• Donald Trump. The billionaire real estate mogul, from New York, will win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. He has consistently been on top in the polls not for a short period but for months. Professional pundits had, up until recently, insisted he won’t win his party’s nomination. (I enjoyed one interview with George W. Bush speechwriter David Frum trying to spin his extrapolation on the poll numbers in an interview on the podcast “Everything Is Political with Evan Soloman.â€) What fuels the likelihood that Trump will be the 2016 Republican presidential nominee is that, he better than everyone else, has connected and drawn in the interest and enthusiasm from partisans who will be participating in voting in the caucuses and primaries. (Those are reflected pretty well in the poll numbers.) New Hampshire will carry for Trump. And the state of Washington, South Carolina, and Nevada will follow suit (or at least two of the three). That will begin the trajectory that could have Trump—especially after most competitors drop out of the race—finish on top with around 40 states. And among those 40 states will likely be at least 16 of the Top 21 most-populous states—those with double-digit electoral votes which, in reality, also have about 70 percent of the nation residing between No. 1 California and No. 21 Minnesota. (And he may eke out a win in Iowa as well. As I mentioned in a previous post: Since Iowa first participated in the presidential primary season, back in 1976, every presidential candidate who won both Iowa and New Hampshire ended up having won his party’s presidential nomination.)
• Ted Cruz. The Texas United States senator has the potential of a 2012 Newt Gingrich…yet he is striving to match a 2012 Rick Santorum. Ted Cruz’s January 14, 2016 debate remark about “New York values†lets us know that Cruz has a woefully limited potential that is reveals, deep down, he can only play at best for second place. No one running for the presidency of the United States, who is relatively smart with how he is running for president of the United States, dismisses and trashes the people of the No. 1 city and the No. 4 state in the nation—a city and state attacked by an act of terrorism—due to his more immediately concerned thoughts about their voting patterns. Shallow.
• Marco Rubio. The Florida United States senator would have had the backing of the Republican establishment had the Republican establishment made their choice sooner. My guess is that Rubio, who will turn 45 this year, will return for a future presidential election cycle and fair better in the primaries en route to possibly winning his party’s presidential nomination.
• Jeb Bush. The former Florida governor has been rejected by the caucus and primary voters from his party. It has a lot to do with his Bush family name. Even the George W. Bush Defenders can’t be sold on yet another potential President Bush. Republican caucus and primary voters have moved on.
• John Kasich. The Ohio governor is the Republicans’ equivalent to the Democrats’ Martin O’Malley (the previous governor of Maryland). At this point…[Kasich is] strictly vice-presidential selection potential. And that’s because he never drew people in (just as is the case with Martin O’Malley) with any considerable interest in seriously going for nominating Kasich.
• Chris Christie. He sunk himself with Bridgegate. But, at the same time, there apparently hasn’t been any harm felt by keeping the New Jersey governor in the debates just in case he would provide viewers with some entertainment.
• Rand Paul. Remember a time not too long ago—circa 2012 and/or 2013—when there was much talk about the Kentucky United States senator being the biggest threat to the establishment of the Republican Party? The 2016 Rand Paul campaign for the presidency—first with his efforts to win his Republican Party’s nomination—has done nothing but having laid an egg.
• Ben Carson. The famous John Hopkins neurosurgeon exposed himself weeks ago as having no substance suggestive of having the potential to lead the country. This sent the partisans, intending on participating in the caucuses and primaries, looking elsewhere…and Carson’s trendline in the polls have since gone into an unforgiving decline.
• Carly Fiorina. The former CEO of Hewlett-Packard—and 2010 California United States Senate nominee from the Republican Party—is now reduced to taking swipes at Hillary Clinton, like with presuming to know Hillary Clinton’s sex life (and not being able to explain how she knows about the married Clintons’ sex life). It’s sad.
• Mike Huckabee. The former Arkansas governor and Fox News employee is an empty waste of space. There was never any point to his run…other than Mike Huckabee using the opportunity to await his next gig.
• Rick Santorum. He has been dismissed. (Come to think—he has not even registered.) But, what could have helped, even in a small way, is if the former Pennsylvania United States senator had announced he is a homosexual. This would not have been news to too many people. But, there could have been a slight spark in poll numbers from a sizable share of the national 22 percent of LGBT persons who, in 2012, voted for Mitt Romney (and who intend to vote in the caucus and primary states for the 2016 Republican presidential nominee).
• Jim Gilmore. He is a former governor of Virginia. The 68th Governor of Virginia. He was elected in 1997. This is necessary information given there are people who still don’t know who the hell is Jim Gilmore.
D, I thoroughly enjoyed your analysis, and had to laugh! LOL
But really, Santorum is a closet gay man? Are you serious, or is that just sarcasm? Please answer!
Ronald asks,
“But really, [Rick] Santorum is a closet gay man? Are you serious, or is that just sarcasm? Please answer!”
Yes.
Even Bill Maher has said something along the lines, “Rick Santorum thinks more about gay sex than gay men.”
Santorum spent a hell of a lot of time fixated on it.
I agree with what you are saying, as it certainly SEEMS so, but is there any actual proof, or just sarcastic comments claiming it to be fact?
Ronald writes,
“I agree with what you are saying, as it certainly SEEMS so, but is there any actual proof, or just sarcastic comments claiming it to be fact?”
Not yet.
It’s also the case with former Illinois U.S. Rep. Aaron Schock.
Gaydar, from the LGBT community, especially gay men, is that Rick Santorum will be stuck in the closet. And, given what has been said by Santorum, the LGBT community want him to stay there.
HAHA, hell have no wrath like an angry gay community! LOL
Caribou Barbie is endorsing Trump. That tells you a lot. 😉
Her endorsement speech was 20-odd minutes of what I can only describe as post-apocalyptic poetry.
I’m still scratching my head at John McCain’s crazy decision to pick her as his running mate in 2008.
According to the Washington Post, Trump’s supporters are Authoritarians.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/authoritarians-agree-trump-for-president/2016/01/19/407f58ec-bef0-11e5-bcda-62a36b394160_story.html
Princess Leia, John McCain NEEDS to denounce Sarah Palin for backing someone (Trump), who showed such disrespect for him.
Former Republican, Trump has authoritarian views, a very scary proposition!
Quite right, Leia. Nothing that woman says makes any sense.