It is clear that the Republican Party is trying to keep control of Congress and regain the White House by appealing to white voters of all economic classes by stealthily promoting fear of immigrants, Hispanics and Latinos, and African Americans, and trying to take away voting rights from the poor, the elderly, college students, as well as minorities.
This is a very troubling strategy, as it promotes a “them” versus “us” mentality which does not serve the nation well, as the reality is that the future of the nation is that the white population is declining in percentage, and by the mid 2040s, will be a minority.
So the need to adapt and appeal to nonwhites of all backgrounds is essential for the political health of the nation in the future. Instead, the GOP is acting as if it is the old Southern Democrats of the segregation era, or the Confederate mentality of the Civil War era.
This is ugly, dangerous, poisonous and reprehensible as the future cannot be stopped, and instead must be confronted! So a return to moderate Republicanism of the Nelson Rockefeller-William Scranton-Henry Cabot Lodge-Charles Percy-Mark Hatfield-Charles Mathias etc variety is essential and soon!
“This is a very troubling strategy,…” â€”Ronald
Electorally, it is also a stupid “strategy.”
Nationally the Democratic Party hasn’t won the White vote since the Lyndon Johnson lopsided landslide, for a full term, against Barry Goldwater in 1964.
Let us review the states carried by President Obama, in Election 2008, to determine just how effective this strategy might be. Please keep in mind: for any state where a Democrat wins the White vote (because that race nationally votes Republican before Democratic, and also Whites’ proportional representation, still a majority, of a given state’s total electorate), such a state will immediately color blue.
State and D.C. (electoral votes) | Obama’s 2008 support
California (55): 52%
*Colorado (8): 50%
Connecticut (7): 51%
Delaware (3): 53%
District of Columbia (3): 86%
Hawaii (4): 70%
Illinois (20): 51%
*Iowa (6): 51%
Maine (4): 58%
Massachusetts (11): 59%
Michigan (16): 50%
Minnesota (11): 53%
New Hampshire (4): 54%
New York (29): 52%
Oregon (7): 57%
Rhode Island (4): 58%
Vermont (3): 67%
Washington (12): 55%
Wisconsin (10): 54%
Those above add up to, for Election 2012, a total of 217 electoral votes. That’s 80 percent of the required 270 for election (and two states, indicated, were pickups).
Here are the states in which Obama did not win the White vote but were in his column.
State (electoral votes) | Obama’s 2008 support | Ranked margin
Maryland (10): 47% | D+25.44%
New Jersey (14): 49% | D+15.53%
*New Mexico (5): 42% | D+15.13%
*Nevada (6): 45% | D+12.55%
Pennsylvania (20): 47% | D+10.31%
*Virginia (13): 39% | D+6.30%
*Ohio (18): 46% | D+4.59%
*Florida (29): 42% | D+2.81%
*Indiana (11): 45% | D+1.03%
*North Carolina (15): 35% | D+0.33%
Let us keep in mind two things: 1) Obama beat John McCain nationally by a margin of 7.26%; 2) Virginia, with only 39 percent support going to President Obama from the Commonwealth’s participating White voters, was the No 1 state in coming closest to reflecting his national margin â€” a spread of just 0.96%.
We should also consider the following facts:
â€¢ A total of 10 states, worth 152 electoral votes, have not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988: California; Connecticut; Delaware; Illinois; Maine; Maryland; Michigan; New Jersey; Pennsylvania; Vermont.
â€¢ A total of 7 states, worth 77 electoral votes, have not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1984: Hawaii; Massachusetts; New York; Oregon; Rhode Island; Washington; Wisconsin.
â€¢ One state, with 6 electoral votes, has carried just once for a Republican presidential candidate after 1984: Iowa (2004).
â€¢ Two states, worth 9 electoral votes, have carried just once for a Republican presidential candidate after 1988: New Hampshire (2000); New Mexico (2004).
â€¢ One state, with 10 electoral votes, has not carried for a Republican presidential candidate since 1972: Minnesota.
â€¢ A non-state, with 3 electoral votes, has never carried for a Republican presidential candidate (and has the presidential vote since 1964): District of Columbia.
All those states, plus D.C., add up to 257 electoral votes â€” which comprise an estimated 95 percent of the required 270 for election. (For Election 2008, they added up to 264!)
Are we to believe the Republican Party only awakened to their electoral problems once Barack Obama became the first African-American president of the United States? I don’t. These states still have majority of Whites casting presidential votes. Consider that Obama won naturally in 2008: He started off with 252 electoral votes from the 19 states (plus D.C.) that voted for 2004’s losing Democrat, John Kerry, before getting a pickup of 9 states and the 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska (worth an additional 113 electoral votes).
Of the 19 states (plus D.C.) that were in the column for both 2004 John Kerry and 2008 Barack Obama, which states’ White voters said “yes” to Kerry but “no” to Obama? None. Not one. The shift in national margin (from 2004) was D+9.72%. That was not because of the newness of getting to vote for a first-ever African-American president of the United States. That materialized chiefly because the incumbent White House party, the Republican Party, was being flipped out in favor of the candidate from the then-opposition Democratic Party.
Are we to believe that White voters generally, and nationally, want racist tactics used against non-Whites for a given political party’s supposed electoral gain. There isn’t any electoral gain to be had for the Republican Party. Chances are: The White voters from these states are better identifying lately with the Democratic â€” more so than the Republican â€” Party. And that addresses what cannot be avoided: the general platform of a major political party. The Republican Party.