Unemployment Rate

Will “It’s The Economy, Stupid!” Outweigh The Death Of Osama Bin Laden And Help Mitt Romney Against Barack Obama?

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A month ago, President Barack Obama’s public opinion polls skyrocketed, following the successful elimination of Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan.

Now, a month later, due to the unstable economy and lack of major job growth, and general economic pessimism, Obama has lost the majority support he had last month, and has slipped below 50 percent in the polls.

In the Washington Post-ABC News poll, Obama has slipped to 47 percent, and in a matchup with Mitt Romney, he is behind by three points, 46-43, emboldening the former Massachusetts Governor to believe he has an advantage for 2012, and that such an advantage will give him the edge for the Republican Presidential nomination.

The problem is that Romney might, for now, be ahead, and he might, realistically, along with Jon Huntsman, be the BEST candidate for the GOP, but that is no guarantee that he will win the nomination of his party or the election in November 2012!

The fact that he has stated his belief that global warming and climate change are a real factor, if not the sole one, in what is happening regarding weather and environmental conditions, will not win friends from the social conservatives.

Nor will his Mormon faith, the same problem of Jon Huntsman, help Romney, since evangelical Christians do not regard Mormons as Christians, but rather as a cult.

Nor will his Massachusetts health care plan, often compared to Obama Health Care, although he has carefully defended it, while saying he would not foist it on the nation as a whole.

Nor will his chameleon nature, constantly changing his views with the shifting political winds, with many seeing him as a moderate to liberal Republican in his past, but now claiming to be a conservative.

Nor will his slick manner, his seemingly perfect family and clean image, help him because it seems, somehow, contrived to many!

But will an economy with a high unemployment rate, poor housing prices, high gasoline prices, and a stagnating stock market, be enough to help Romney or some other Republican, and outweigh the national security issue, including the death of Bin Laden, and the fact that America is involved in fighting terrorism in FIVE nations by bombing and drones–Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Libya, and Yemen–making Obama look tough on defense and security issues?

Just about 16 and a half months away from the election, and eight months from the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, the Republican Party has some hope, but many daunting challenges ahead, but then again, so does Barack Obama, to convince the nation to re-elect a President with high unemployment numbers and percentages, greater than since Franklin D. Roosevelt!

Reality: Job Growth Is Occurring, And Education Is Crucial To Success In Gaining Employment!

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The newest employment figures make it clear that job recovery is occurring at a rate which, if it continues, insures that the unemployment rate will hit below 8 percent by the time of the 2012 Presidential Election a year and a half from now!

The promising news is that private sector job growth is close to a quarter of a million for the past few months, a rate which is required for real job growth to occur, considering the constant growth of people seeking to join the job market. This means, however, that unless the job growth is more rapid that it is now, it will take about five more years to lower unemployment to a rate considered full employment , about six percent!  Right now, unemployment has dropped one percentage point to 8.8 percent over four months, the fastest drop since 1983!

But certainly very clear is that the unemployment rate for those with a college education, a four year degree or more, is substantially lower than for those who dropped out of college or never attended.

So the message for young people remains one that education is good for your personal intellectual and emotional growth, but also for your potential to gain employment and earn more income! So dropping out, or not taking school seriously, is a tremendous mistake!

The Declining Unemployment Rate, Barack Obama, And The 2012 Presidential Election

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News has just come showing unemployment in February dropping to 8.9 percent, the lowest in nearly two years, specifically April 2009.

192,000 jobs have been added, a healthy sum, and private employment is rising, with public employment, ironically, dropping because of Republican governors cutting workers in their insane refusal to consider tax increases, thereby causing service delays and dangers that will start to impact the average citizen very soon.

There are economic prognostications now emerging that forecast that the unemployment rate will continue to decline over the next year and a half, and that it will be close to 7 percent by the time of the Presidential Election of 2012.

If that does indeed occur, then Barack Obama will be reelected President in November 2012 by a substantial margin, and with the GOP in disarray right now, and no one really strong yet emerging, the economy will be likely to decide ultimately that Obama will be a two term President!

The Assault On Organized Labor And The Working Class

Ronald 1 Comment

The year 2011 is seeing a frontal assault on the hard earned rights of organized labor and the working class, gained over the past century with the aid of Presidents Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson, Richard Nixon, George H W Bush, and Bill Clinton.

Collective bargaining is about to disappear in many states controlled by Republican Governors, and the Supreme Court has been actively restricting labor rights and promoting the rights and privileges of corporations.

We are rapidly descending back into the Gilded Age and 1920s mentality, including the possibility of National Guard actions against workers in Wisconsin, and who know where else eventually! 🙁

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate threatens to create a permanent underclass, and employers are making things only worse.

The white population has an unemployment rate of about 8 percent; the African American population rate is 16 percent; the Hispanic rate is 12 percent; and the Asian American rate is about 7 percent. Add to this the growing number of disabled and handicapped workers as well, and then add to the mix the news that employers more than ever are refusing to consider anyone for employment who is at this point without a job.

If this strategy continues, which would seem to be against the civil rights laws on race, ethnicity and the disabled and handicapped, then we are on the way to a permanent underclass of people who will be unable to find work, and will be denied or thrown off unemployment compensation (which is only temporary in any case)!

This sets up a situation of social dynamite, which could lead to bloodshed and violence, including use of the National Guard against the American population, by bully governors who decide to use force against people marching and demonstrating and demanding a change in attitude and policy to give this underclass hope and confidence that there is a future for them.

This whole evolving situation is extremely scary and troubling! 🙁

The Gap Between College Education Needed And The Response Of College Age Population, Particularly Males: Danger Sign For The Future Economic Growth Of America! :(

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With the unemployment rate rising from 9.6 percent to 9.8 percent, over 15 million people out of work, and over 6 million out of work for a long term, the nation is faced with the reality that college graduates or higher earn far more than others, and have a very low unemployment rate in this horrible economy!

At the same time, African Americans and Hispanics, and those with less than a high school diploma, or even those who finish high school but achieve no higher level of education, are faced with an extremely high unemployment rate and little hope of a real employment opportunity anytime soon!

In the midst of this crisis, we are finding a larger number of high school students no longer aspire to college education, and that this is particularly noticeable among males, who now comprise far less than a majority of college level students!

Women are becoming more educated, and gaining better pay than in the past, and have a lower unemployment rate than men, and this is also adding up to fewer marriages, with women no longer feeling the need to marry because they can support themselves, and less resistance to the idea of having children out of wedlock!

As Time Magazine stated in a recent issue, women don’t need to marry for money, and neither men nor women need to marry for sexual relations, so marriage is a declining institution, as well as the goal of many young people, and particularly males, to gain a college education, which would improve their chances of keeping a job and avoiding unemployment!

This is a social problem that plagues America and will adversely affect its long range future, unless we can convince young people of the importance of education in their lives!

Employment Numbers Improve, But A Long Way To Go :(

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The employment situation finally improved somewhat in March, with an increase of 162,000 jobs, but there is still a long way to go!

The unemployment rate stayed stable at 9.7 percent, and the underemployment rate rose slightly to 16.9 percent.

The unemployment rate is worse among minority groups, particularly African Americans, and since so many people have been out of work for more than six months, and a substantial number for a year or more, there is little to celebrate.

This issue will be the crucial one in the upcoming Fall 2010 midterm elections, since people tend to vote their pocketbook above all considerations, even those who have secure jobs but worry about the overall economy and how it might affect the future for them and their children.

So the Democrats and President Obama must focus now on job creation, and hope that the economic turnaround, which seems to have begun, will continue to accelerate over the next six months.

If it does not, then the Democratic party losses this November will be greater, rather than less, and will make Obama’s challenge in the last two years of his first term all the more problematical!

Unemployment Rate Goes Down But Number Of Unemployed In Recession Was Greater In Last Year Than Originally Thought!

Ronald 1 Comment

The good news this morning is that the nation’s unemployment rate dropped three tenths of one percent from 10.0 to 9.7.

However, it has been discovered that the statistics of how many people have lost their jobs since the recession began in December 2007 was underestimated by approximately a million people! 🙁

It was thought that the total was about 7.2 million people, while now it is believed to be 8.4 million.

This is bad news, but at least no one can claim that the Obama Administration is trying to cover up the bad news. And there is some hope with the unemployment rate down one half of one percent since its high point of 10.2 percent three months ago.

However, it is still true that lowering that unemployment rate is essential for the Democrats as they face the challenge of the midterm congressional elections this coming November.

Unemployment Rate Prediction For 2010, 2011, 2012 Grim :(

Ronald 9 Comments

The Obama Administration has released projections of the unemployment rate expected at the end of 2010, 2011 and 2012, and they are indeed extremely grim news! 🙁

9.8 percent is expected at the end of this year, down only two tenths of one percent from what it is now. That is extremely bad news for Democrats in the House and Senate in the upcoming midterm elections.

In 2011, the expectation is that the unemployment rate will drop to 8.9 percent, a drop of only about a point from the end of 2010. That is very slow progress toward lower unemployment.

And in 2012, as the year ends, and the Presidential election is taking place, it is expected that the unemployment rate will only have dropped another point to 7.8 percent, higher than it was when Obama took the oath of office. This will make Obama’s unemployment rate in office higher than any other President since World War II at the end of the first term of office.

This all bodes badly for the future of the Democrats, as it is likely that the American people will blame the party for the slow progress downward on unemployment. It will make the job of reelecting President Obama all the more difficult! 🙁

Signs Of Progress! Unemployment Rate Declines In November!

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For the first time since the Great Recession began in December, 2007, the unemployment rate has declined!

Compared to the hundreds of thousands of jobs lost every month, and 7.2 million lost in the past year, the month of November shows only 11,000 jobs lost and the rate declining from 10.2 percent to 10 percent.

Professional and medical jobs are up, which again shows the power of education. But job losses in construction and manufacturing are also lessening, which is a good sign.

It is hoped that the unemployment rate peaked last month, and that the 10.8 percent unemployment rate of 1982 under the Reagan Administration will not be matched or surpassed!

This news comes just after the Jobs Summit at the White House yesterday and the President on the road today in Allentown, Pennsylvania, promoting the job agenda in public meetings.