Ron Paul

The Republican Division On Afghanistan Policy: Could It Affect 2012?

The Republican Party is bitterly divided over foreign policy as the Presidential campaign develops.

Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman have both called for cutting back US involvement in Afghanistan, and may be, theoretically, to the left of President Obama in this regard.

At the same time, Tim Pawlenty came out today for a hard line view on that war, joining the camp of John McCain and Lindsey Graham in calling such a viewpoint of Romney and Huntsman “isolationist”!

Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann have also sounded “isolationist”, with Paul for sure, and Bachmann speaking in that fashion at the recent Presidential debate in New Hampshire.

Who would have thought that foreign policy would divide the GOP, when many believed it was domestic policy, the budget, taxes, and spending that would dominate?

But, actually, it is the spending for the war in Afghanistan, and the involvement in Libya, which is causing the rift in the party, as House Republicans, led by Speaker John Boehner, are pushing a resolution challenging our involvement in Libya under the War Powers Act, something that McCain and Graham have bitterly denounced, and want modified, which may happen!

So this just complicates the battle for the Republican Presidential nomination, and for the Presidential Election of 2012!

Ron Paul Wins Straw Poll At Republican Leadership Conference In New Orleans, But Guess Who Placed Second?

Texas Congressman Ron Paul, a favorite of the libertarians in the Republican Party, scored a major triumph at the weekend Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans, by winning the straw poll conducted by the group.

Of course, that does not translate into realistic support for the nomination of his party, which overwhelmingly disagrees with much of what he advocates.

But more interesting is the fact that former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, recently Barack Obama’s Ambassador to China, who did not attend the conference and is an unannounced candidate for President until early in this upcoming week, ended up a solid second in the polling!

Huntsman seems to be the favorite of the so called “establishment” wing of the party, and had a recent meeting with President George H. W. Bush, who seems to be impressed with Huntsman.

So although still not well known, it becomes more apparent that Huntsman is seen now as the major competitor to front runner Mitt Romney for the Presidential nomination, a thought that has been expressed by the author numerous times!

Split In The Republican Party On Foreign Interventions! Mitt Romney And Jon Huntsman Open A Debate!

The Republican Party has been a warlike, hawkish party for the past two decades since the Gulf War, with Congressman Ron Paul of Texas being a rare critic.

When Paul was competing for the GOP Presidential nomination in 2008, he was ridiculed in debates by Rudy Guiliani and other GOP candidates as loony and unrealistic about America’s role in the world.

But as we near ten years in Afghanistan and soon withdraw our forces from Iraq and wonder about the Libyan intervention, nearing three months with no resolution, we are starting to see chinks in the armor of the war wing of the Republican Party.

Senators John McCain of Arizona and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina are always looking to bomb and intervene in another Muslim country, and most Republicans in Congress have refused up to now to realize the heavy financial cost of constant military intervention, particularly at a time of record deficits and the growing dispute over raising the debt limit.

But now, at least two Presidential candidates, the two most likely to go all the way to the nomination, are expressing doubts about continuation of the war in Afghanistan, and the need to reconsider military spending in some form. Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman have taken a courageous stand in this regard, but this has led at least Lindsey Graham to call Mitt Romney another Jimmy Carter, of all things!

IF either Romney or Huntsman become the GOP nominee against Barack Obama next year, there could be an opening for Obama to start moving to end the involvement in Afghanistan.

And if real discussion of defense and military cuts could move forward, it would change the economic outlook dramatically, and allow some relief on such issues as education, health care, and the environment taking all the hits in spending cuts!

Mitt Romney Looked Presidential In CNN Republican Debate

There is no question that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney looked Presidential in last night’s CNN debate in New Hampshire.

He had clear, crisp answers, and defended RomneyCare in Massachusetts, while making it clear that in his view it should not apply to the national level in ObamaCare.

Romney was calm, cool, confident, relaxed and smiled a lot, even while standing next to Ron Paul, who is the antithesis of everything he represents.

One could imagine Mitt Romney being on the same debate stage with President Barack Obama.

No one in the White House should underestimate Mitt Romney, but one must realize that the real test will come when Jon Huntsman and Rick Perry, if he decides to enter the nomination contest, actually participate in debate with Romney.

But a great start for Mitt Romney, with great promise for the future!

The CNN New Hampshire Republican Presidential Debate: Michele Bachmann And Mitt Romney The Winners!

This evening, CNN sponsored a New Hampshire Republican Presidential debate.

The seven candidates present all went out of their way to attack President Obama, and avoided attacking each other.

But some really gained from this debate, and others lost by their performance.

The major winners were Michele Bachmann and Mitt Romney, with Bachmann coming across impressively, more than she has ever been seen before, and Romney doing a good job at keeping his stature as the frontrunner in the race.

The losers seemed to be Tim Pawlenty, who seemed weak and defensive in his answers; Newt Gingrich, who still seemed a bit gun shy after his earlier problems with his campaign; and Rick Santorum, who just came across as not a serious, legitimate candidate.

Ron Paul was simply Ron Paul, and Herman Cain was defensive over his statements about Muslims, and neither can be seen as a serious candidate.

So, in conclusion, Michele Bachmann, seemingly, came across as more legitimate than ever before, and as a real leader among social conservatives, which might help her win in the Iowa caucuses, which come before the New Hampshire primary.

What stood out is that she did better than Sarah Palin has ever done in a public forum, and one starts to realize that, even if one does not agree with Bachmann, she comes across as intelligent, well spoken, an accomplished person even before she came to Congress, as a tax attorney and small businesswoman, far more outstanding as compared to Palin.

So Romney kept his stature as the front runner in the race, but Bachmann gained the most from tonight’s debate. The others all were weakened by their performance, or at least, did not gain by their performance in relation to the other candidates.

Of course, Jon Huntsman was not in the debate, nor Rick Perry!

The Internal Struggle In The Republican Party: Minnesota Vs. Mormonism!

With the announcement today that Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels will not run for the Republican Presidential nomination, the race seems more than ever to be one of FOUR who are likely to dominate vote getting in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, the early primary and caucus states next winter!

As one looks at the field, it seems clear that Newt Gingrich has self destructed in his first week as an official candidate. Rick Santorum seems unlikely to take off as a candidate, based on his own past crazy statements and walloping defeat for re-election in Pennsylvania in 2006. Herman Cain, Gary Johnson, and even Ron Paul, will make noise, but are unlikely to poll many actual votes.

So unless someone such as Chris Christie or Jeb Bush suddenly enters the race belatedly, there seem to be four major contenders for actual popular vote support in the primaries and the caucuses early on–Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Jon Huntsman, and surprisingly, Michele Bachmann!

Bachmann is the favorite of the Tea Party people, more even than Ron Paul, who is seen as too old and flaky to be much of a vote getter. Even though she is outrageous in her statements and actions, Bachmann is likely to have a serious following in Iowa at the least, and could affect who of the other candidates benefits by her candidacy.

Bachmann, being from Minnesota, and therefore from the Midwest, poses a real challenge to former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, who has been very careful to avoid outrageous statements and actions, and yet is competing for the Tea Party support and for the backing of Midwesterners. Iowa is a crucial state to both, so they are therefore at loggerheads as Bachmann could ruin Pawlenty’s chances. So expect the beginning soon of sustained attacks by each on the other, and increasingly so, as the campaign gets closer to the first vote test in Iowa, which has many evangelical Christians and Tea Party people, and will likely kill off either Bachmann or Pawlenty. So it is the battle of Minnesotan vs. Minnesotan!

But the 2012 race is also of Mormon vs. Mormon, as Jon Huntsman, former Governor of Utah, and seen as a moderate to some extent, is challenging Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts, who is also often seen as a moderate. Both are working very hard to wipe such ideas out of voters’ minds, as both oppose health care and support Medicare reform along the lines of the Paul Ryan Budget plan. Both are much more electible on paper, but being Mormons and having the old image of moderation could harm both, and certainly, one will be hurt by the success of the other.

What is likely is that the nomination will come down to Pawlenty vs. one of the two Mormon politicians, with Huntsman being newer and fresher and more interesting a candidate.

So the final struggle is likely to be Pawlenty vs. Huntsman, and it would seem likely that Pawlenty would have the edge, but only if he can overcome the influence of Bachmann with Tea Party faithful.

For the election, Huntsman or even Romney would be a better bet to win than Pawlenty, but the Tea Party influence is such that the bet would be that Pawlenty will be the sacrificial lamb, with the likelihood that Barack Obama would win a major victory, possibly on the level of George H. W. Bush over Michael Dukakis in 1988!

Why Newt Gingrich Is A Horrible Candidate For The Presidency

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has faced literal Hell this week from members of his own Republican Party for his MEET THE PRESS interview this past Sunday, where he criticized the Paul Ryan budget plan, including radical changes in Medicare, and called for the individual mandate, exactly what he believed in the 1990s, and which Barack Obama made part of his Health Care reform plans last year.

His chances to be the nominee of his party for the Presidency seem to have been destroyed by his statements, but actually there are better, more substantive reasons for him to be passed by for the Presidential nomination.

1. Gingrich is a “loose cannon”, who has no discipline and will say anything he thinks of immediately after thinking about it! As a result, he is often seen as a “firebomb thrower”, and that is no recommendation for the nation’s highest office.

2. Gingrich has a horrible moral record, in relation to the cheating he committed on TWO WIVES, and being married three times. He was condemning Bill Clinton while he was engaged in extramarital relations himself during the impeachment debacle of 1998-1999.

3. The fact that it has been discovered that he owes back taxes and is very loose with money and credit makes one state that is not a credential we want in a future President.

4. Gingrich has few friends in politics, even in his own party, with basically no one coming to his defense. He is seen as a supreme egotist, who has no loyalty to anything but his own aggrandizement and glory. He would be involved in constant conflict with his own party, as well as the Democrats, because he would be stubborn and inflexible.

5. In foreign policy, he would cause international crises and “bad blood”, as he does not have an ounce of diplomacy in his approach to those who disagree with him.

6. It is difficult to say that Gingrich has any basic principles or beliefs, as he has so often changed his views to fit the moment, and in any case, he is certainly not, by his historical record, a small national government man, which is the view of the present Republican Party and the Tea Party Movement.

7. Being a professor in his past, being an “ideas man” and an intellectual, may be seen by some as positives, but in the modern GOP, those are all disadvantages and turnoffs. He often seems to be lecturing, rather than speaking to his audiences.

So it is clear that the chances of Newt Gingrich being the Presidential nominee and even the winner of the Oval Office are as likely as the chances of Gary Johnson, Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, and Rick Santorum.

It still comes down to the reality that the next Republican nominee is almost certainly going to be from Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman, or Tim Pawlenty, with Pawlenty, despite his low public opinion ratings, seen as having the fewest negatives of the three.

And don’t expect Mitch Daniels of Indiana, Jeb Bush of Florida, Rick Perry of Texas, and Chris Christie of New Jersey to enter the race, one which looks more likely to be that of a losing cause for 2012!

The Fox News Channel South Carolina Debate: What It Tells Us About The GOP Presidential Race!

The Republican Presidential debate in South Carolina this past Thursday, the first in a long group of debates over the next year, tells us a lot about both the Republican race and South Carolina at the same time, and it is not good!

The focus audience at the debate sponsored by Fox News Channel seemed like aliens from another planet, certainly not the mainstream of the nation, and doubtfully, of the Republican party future.

Asked their favorite candidate among the five who showed up, the majority said Herman Cain, the African American former Chief Executive Officer of Godfather Pizza, also a talk show host on radio. His main point was to get government out of the way of business, a typical Republican viewpoint, but his chances for the nomination can be seen as zero!

Their second favorite was former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, who has made himself look foolish and extreme on social issues, and no serious observer takes him as a likely nominee, either!

It was interesting that Ron Paul, despite his support among libertarians, and actually making quite a good debate perfromance, failed to excite the South Carolina focus group.

It was also noticeable that Tim Pawlenty, often considered one of the more likely nominees as a “dark horse”, seems to have had no positive impression among the participants in the focus group.

The sum total is to demonstrate that Pawlenty probably lost some advantage by NOT impressing that group of voters, and that the focus group made one realize that there are a lot of people in the Palmetto state who seem not to have advanced beyond the times of John C. Calhoun and Strom Thurmond–meaning continued hatred of the national government as somehow the evil incarnate!

Without the “serious” candidates in the race–Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee–and the controversial candidates–Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin, Donald Trump, Newt Gingrich–the debate was basically a waste of time since nothing came out of it that could promise a good future for the Republican Party in the 2012 Presidential race!

The “Dark Horse” To Watch In The GOP Presidential Race: Jon Huntsman Of Utah!

Anyone who is paying attention to the GOP Presidential race knows that there is great dissatisfaction with the field of candidates.

Either they are highly controversial and divisive figures such as Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum and Donald Trump.

Or else they are such long shots that are “unknowns” such as Herman Cain, Gary Johnson, and Buddy Roemer.

Or they are candidates who have been around before, and are seen by many as uninspiring, including Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee.

Or they are newcomers who are seen as having potential, such as Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman.

There is also Ron Paul, who excites the libertarian wing of the party, but has no chance to be the nominee.

And then, there are those who imagine that Chris Christie, the “bully” Governor of New Jersey, somehow can translate his tough guy image to the national scene.

In reality, other than Mitt Romney, who has many issues to deal with, but is seen by many as the best candidate, it is, as the author has said many times, Pawlenty and Huntsman who are the best alternatives, but in many ways, Huntsman is much more interesting.

Former Ambassador to China under President Obama, and former Governor of Utah, where he came across as a moderate, Huntsman is much more charismatic than Pawlenty. He is very handsome, dynamic, has the experience in China which makes him appear strong on foreign policy, and could be much more appealing in a two man race against Obama than any other candidate. He is truly the ultimate “dark horse” in the race, and this weekend, he is in South Carolina delivering the commencement address at the University of South Carolina. He is said to be ready to enter the race next month, and seems to many the most interesting person in the race.

Being a moderate on most issues, a Mormon like Romney is, and having worked for Obama in China, are all negatives to many, but don’t bet against him surviving a long way in the Presidential race and keeping it interesting!

Watch Jon Huntsman and read up on him, as he should be a major factor in the political race for 2012!

The First GOP Presidential Debate: A Major Yawn!

The first Republican Presidential debate has just taken place in South Carolina, sponsored by Fox News Channel and the Republican Party of South Carolina.

Only one major candidate was at the debate, former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, and he may be the big winner simply by gaining more notice by participation in the debate, and in comparison to his competitors at the debate.

The others present, none of whom have any chance to be the Republican Presidential nominee, include former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, businessman Herman Cain of Godfather Pizza and a radio talk show host, and former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson.

Ron Paul was engaging personally as he always is, but as a libertarian, he has absolutely no chance to win the GOP nomination, but his push for withdrawing many of our military bases overseas to save money rings true as a great idea.

Santorum lost his Senate race for a third term in a landslide, and his social conservatism is seen by many as unacceptable because of extreme statements in the past.

Herman Cain and Gary Johnson are so unknown, and it is unlikely that either will gain much from the exposure at this debate.

It is clear that the GOP has not advanced itself by this debate, and that President Obama need not worry about any of these people being a serious challenge to his second term in the White House!