Newt Gingrich

The Iowa Faith And Freedom Coalition And The Republican Party Presidential Nomination

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The first event of the battle for the Republican Presidential nomination of 2012 occurred on Monday night in Des Moines, Iowa, when the Faith and Freedom Coalition gathering, hosted by Ralph Reed, a former aide to evangelist Pat Robertson, took place.

Only three of the major possible candidates showed up–Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty, and Rick Santorum.

Also appearing were former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer, past Godfather Pizza executive Herman Cain, and in a separate event, Texas Congressman Ron Paul. Also, a representative of Donald Trump appeared.

The fact that only three major GOP candidates appeared was a surprise, as it is obvious no one is very anxious to jump full scale into the race.

And the three major candidates who did show up all sounded like evangelical preachers at a religious revival, and the question is whether the GOP is going to focus on abortion and gay marriage at the expense of mainstream economic issues!

And for Gingrich particularly, but also Pawlenty and Santorum, to focus on morals and ethics is quite amazing, and the level of hypocrisy, particularly for Gingrich with his three wives and scandalous behavior as Speaker of the House from 1995-1999, is absolutely amazing!

Interesting Conflicts Within Republican Presidential Field

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As one surveys the Republican Presidential race and potential opponents, there are several interesting conflicts that exist among the members of the field.

One is the battle between Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann, both trying to appeal to the Tea Party favorites, and also being the potential only woman in the race, with Bachmann now seen as much more likely to run than Palin.

A second one is the battle for Southern support, among Newt Gingrich of Georgia, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, and Haley Barbour of Mississippi, with all three having major problems, but Gingrich and Huckabee flirting directly with “Birthers” and pushing the idea that, somehow, Barack Obama is not a true American, an idea which marginalizes both of them, and giving Barbour the edge.

A third is the battle for the Midwest, with Michele Bachmann a potential problem for Tim Pawlenty for social conservative support and Tea Party backing, but with Pawlenty seeming more responsible and more acceptable to many, and with many observers seeing him as having the fewest shortcomings of all the potential GOP candidates.

A fourth conflict is between the two Mormons in the race, both of whom neutral observers see as having the best chance to beat Barack Obama–Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman, both former Governors, in Massachusetts and Utah, respectively. Both are very ambitious, but also very qualified, and have been rivals in the past, but Romney has the Massachusetts Health Care Plan as his Achilles Heel, while Huntsman has the issue of having been the US Ambassador to China for the past two years under President Obama. Their competition could be the most substantial and interesting of all of these rivalries, and the issue of whether being Mormons will be the fatal blow to their chances for the nomination.

So it will be a fascinating struggle to find who will be the GOP nominee against Obama, with eleven months to the first vote in the Iowa caucuses

The Anti Obama “Birthers” And The Suicide Of Republican Legitimacy For The Presidency In 2012

Ronald 1 Comment

Here we are in the third year of the Obama Presidency, and the “Birther” conspiracy theory about Obama still survives, and has led to ridiculous assertions by potential GOP candidates about Obama and Kenya, which is having the effect of creating a shortened list of legitimate Presidential possibilities.

George Will, the conservative commentator, remarked this past weekend on this issue, and he said that comments and events have narrowed the legitimate field to just FIVE candidates–Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, Haley Barbour, and Jon Huntsman.

The author would say that he agrees with Will, except he would eliminate two of these five–Daniels because he is connected to the anti labor movement in Wisconsin and other states, and has already eliminated collective bargaining rights in Indiana years ago, plus he has strongly hinted he will not be running; and Barbour, because he has no sensitivity on the race problem in Mississippi in the 1960s and promotes Confederate propaganda as we come on the 150th anniversary of the Civil War.

So it comes down to THREE candidates who are truly legitimate, all of whom the author has already said so in earlier entries, and are serious possibilities for the nomination–Romney, Pawlenty, and Huntsman!

Will was highly critical of Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich for promoting the Kenya connection to Obama, both saying that his dad and grandfather being anti British in the 1950s is somehow evil, although any reasonable person could understand the desire of Kenya and other African countries to be free of British or other nations’ “imperialism”, which certainly was reality. After all, was not the American Revolution based on British “imperialism” against the 13 colonies as we saw it?

So Huckabee and Gingrich have self destructed by their comments about Obama, and when you add the craziness of Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul, and Rick Santorum, and the arrogance and egotism of Donald Trump, it really comes down to only THREE candidates that have any true validity for the GOP Presidential nomination!

If anyone else ends up as the nominee, the 2012 Presidential race will be an easy victory for Barack Obama!

Fox News Channel And Avoidance Of Conflict Of Interest In the Republican Presidential Contest

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Fox News Channel loves to say that it is “fair and balanced”, and yet it employs numerous GOP leaders who are considered possible Presidential candidates for 2012.

So, in order to keep their image of “neutrality”, Fox News Channel has suspended the contracts of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum for 60 days, since both are clearly moving toward open candidacy. On May 1, if they have not clearly stated that they are not running for the White House, their contracts as commentators for the station will be ended.

It is fascinating that former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee have not been also suspended from their million dollar contracts with Fox News Channel.

The rationale is that neither has taken obvious steps toward a Presidential candidacy, even though both are among the top three in polls, sharing that with former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts.

Palin seems obviously unwilling to give up her unique position of being able to gain attention, but yet not give up her opportunity to strike it rich as a personality and celebrity. It is clear that she is not about to give up her lucrative income for an uncertain and difficult trek toward the nomination.

Huckabee has made it clear that he does not know whether he could raise enough money to compete with the expected nearly billion dollar investment by the Obama campaign for 2012, and has stated that it will not be easy to defeat a sitting President. So now that he has accomplished making “real money” for the first time in his life, he is reluctant to give it up, and who can blame him or Palin?

So with two of the top three in the polls very likely to bow out of the race, who gains? It seems to the author that Mitt Romney, former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, and former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty are the beneficiaries of these developments.

Gingrich and Santorum seem unlikely to benefit, as both are controversial and polarixing and have problems appealing to the center of the political spectrum, which is essential in the fall campaign of 2012. Both are extremely outspoken and divisive characters.

At the same time, Donald Trump, Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul and Haley Barbour will also have trouble for different reasons, so it seems likely that Romney, Huntsman, and Pawlenty are the candidates to watch, and none are connected to Fox News Channel.

The Republicans Are Starting To Implode Even Before The Presidential Competition Begins!

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Here it is March, and not one Republican has announced for President, and yet the party is starting to implode!

Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour has made the observation that people on Medicaid in his state are coming to pharmacies in their BMWs and saying they cannot afford the copays for their medication! Oh really, Haley? In the poorest state of the Union, poor people have BMWs? Give me a break!

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee made a statement in a radio interview that Barack Obama grew up in Kenya, and because of that, he has a very different view of the British, who once controlled Kenya. Really, Mike, Obama grew up in Kenya? Of course, Huckabee says Obama was born in Hawaii, so he is not a “Birther”, but now we are told he was brought up in Kenya, the home of his father, who left his mother when Obama was two years old! When caught in a controversy over the remark, Huckabee now says, oh he meant to say Indonesia, where Obama did live for a few years with his mother when she had a second marriage with an Indonesian man. So Mike does not know the difference between Kenya and Indonesia, and one wonders if he can point them out on the map and knows anything about either nation.

Oh, and if Obama lived in Indonesia, then how does he understand the British differently, when it was the Dutch who controlled Indonesia until after World War II?

And also, since Kenya and Indonesia were both independent BEFORE Obama was born, how would he have a “different” view of either the British or the Dutch, Mike, heh?

Then, we have Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, the head of the Budget Committee, who tells us that he is not thrilled with “Romneycare”, anymore than he is with “Obamacare”, a real knock at Mitt Romney, the former Governor of Massachusetts, even before he enters the Presidential race!

And Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma tells us that Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House in the mid 1990s, is indeed a bright fellow, but is also divisive and confrontational, and does not bring out the better side of people, and how is he supposed to unite the nation and be effective as President? And by the way, back in 1996, Coburn was a House member and led a move to oust Gingrich as Speaker, which failed. And Coburn also makes clear that Gingrich’s morality, having three wives and cheating on the first two, is not a good character image for a President of the United States!

With so much bad mouthing going on, and so much inaccurate and damaging statements being made, one wonders how the GOP is going to unite around anyone to oppose President Obama, and remember, we are not even factoring in the influence of the large freshman class of Republicans in the House plus a few in the Senate, who are proud to call themselves Tea Party people!

So it will be fun to watch as events develop, and here it is ONLY March 2!

Speakers Of The House Of Representatives: The Presidency And The Vice Presidency

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With strong hints that former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich of Georgia will likely be the first Republican to announce his candidacy for the Presidency, it makes one look back and see the history of the Speaker of the House and the office of the Presidency and the Vice Presidency.

Only one Speaker of the House has been elected President, James Polk in the 1844 election, after having served as Speaker from 1835-1839.

Two others who were Speaker were nominated for President and lost–Henry Clay (1811-1814, 1815-1820, 1823-1825)) who lost in 1824, 1832 and 1844; and James G. Blaine (1869-1875) who lost in 1884.

Another Speaker, Champ Clark (1911-1919) sought the nomination in 1912, was ahead in delegates at the Democratic National Convention, but lost the nomination to Woodrow Wilson.

Two others served as Vice President–Schuyler Colfax (1863-1869) who served under Ulysses Grant from 1869-1873; and John Nance Garner (1931-1933), who served under Franklin D. Roosevelt from 1933-1941.

Additionally, John Bell (1834-1835) ran for President on the Constitutional Union Party in the 1860 Presidential election which led to the victory of Abraham Lincoln.

So Gingrich would be the eighth Speaker to seek high office as President or Vice President, but would only be the second to reach that position were he to be elected in 2012. Don’t bet on it!

Tim Pawlenty Gets A Boost In The GOP Presidential Race

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Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty has been seen as a insignificant factor in the Republican Presidential race, having far less voter recognition than his potential major opponents–Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Haley Barbour and Rick Santorum.

But several things have occurred which improve his chances of being a serious candidate:

Congressman Mike Pence of Indiana and Senator John Thune of South Dakota, both regional Midwestern potential candidates, decided not to run for President, giving him a boost in Iowa, the first measure of party support on February 6, 2012.

Rumors are flying that Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin may not run for President, due to the lucrative positions they have with Fox News Channel, plus other money making activities for Palin.

All of the other major Presidential possibilities, and even some of the minor ones, have “skeletons in the closet”, major negatives that can hurt them, such as:

Mitt Romney–He is seen as having promoted a health care plan in Massachusetts similar to what President Obama was able to achieve nationally in 2010. Also, he is seen by many as secretly a northeastern liberal in his background, and being a Mormon hurts him with evangelical Christians. Plus he had one go around already and lost to John McCain.

Mike Huckabee–He has had one go around already, is seen as a big spender during his years as Governor of Arkansas, and may not want to give up the lucrative income he has recently enjoyed for the first time in his life. Plus he seems concerned with the costs of running for President against President Obama, who will probably have a billion dollar campaign fund.

Sarah Palin–She has not developed a real set of plans to run, may not want to give up her lucrative income to run, and is actually not running well in many polls, since she is seen as shallow, and more of a cult figure than a serious Presidential possibility.

Newt Gingrich–He has a lot of personal life scandals in his past, has not been in public office for 14 years by 2012, and is very divisive in his rhetoric, making him less appealing to many who think of him as a “flame thrower”.

Haley Barbour–He has made major blunders with his lack of understanding and miscues about the civil rights movement in his home state of Mississippi in the 1960s, plus the question exists whether someone from the deep South can appeal to the nation at large.

Rick Santorum–He has the problem of a massive Senate defeat for reelection in 2006, and his being best remembered for his “man-dog” statement in opposing gay rights and gay marriage. He is not taken very seriously as a Presidential candidate by anyone in top leadership of the GOP.

Other candidates also have major problems if they decide to run.

Jon Huntsman–He has a background as a moderate in the party, which is not a plus. Plus he was Barack Obama’s Ambassador to China, which could be harmful, and being a Mormon, as Romney is, is probably a major minus as well.

Michele Bachmann–The Congresswoman from Minnesota may appeal to the Tea Party and could be a rival of fellow Minnesotan Pawlenty, but it is hard to imagine that her loose mouth and extremist image would give her a serious chance for the nomination. Plus being a Congresswoman is a difficult challenge for the Presidency, as only one Congressman (James Garfield) ever went directly to the Presidency, and he was dead by assassination six months into his term in 1881.

Ron Paul–He has his followers, and has won the CPAC straw poll twice in a row, but to imagine a libertarian in his late 70s who has tried before for the nomination, and been ridiculed by all others in the party who have run for President, to go on to the nomination is a tremendous long shot, hard to conceive.

Donald Trump–The billionaire businessman is pretty obnoxious and a publicity seeker, and were he to run, his anti Chinese rhetoric and basic belligerence on foreign policy issues would make him a dangerous choice for the Presidency, and since he is not a lovable character personally, it is hard to imagine him going all the way to the nomination.

The above analysis does not mean that none of them can be the nominee, but by comparison , Tim Pawlenty has a real chance to emerge, based on the following factors.

He is from the heartland of the Midwest, the battleground for 2012, and with Mike Pence and John Thune out of the race, that is a boost for Pawlenty.

He first gained notice with John McCain’s campaign for President in 2008, and was on the short list for Vice President, but with McCain’s defeat, it actually was better that he did not win the VP nomination.

Pawlenty is a strong evangelical Christian, and has gained a lot of support from social conservatives and the Tea Party as a result.

He has had real executive experience as Governor of Minnesota for two terms and a total of eight years.

He has been promoted as a candidate with fewer problems, issues, and “skeletons in the closet”, by conservative George Will and MSNBC talk show host Lawrence O’Donnell, giving him, therefore, a bit of a boomlet for the Presidency.

Pawlenty comes across well on television, as a photogenic personality and well spoken, and even at times having a good sense of humor, when he said at the CPAC convention that he had no doubts of Barack Obama’s citizenship, but thought what he believed in sometimes might make one think he was from “outer space!”

This is not an endorsement by this author of Pawlenty by any means, as he strongly prefers Barack Obama to win reelection, but simply a statement that Pawlenty may be the surprise of 2012, and should not be ignored.

Having said that, the author still feels that the best candidate that the GOP could run, overall, would be Mitt Romney or Jon Huntsman, but again, Tim Pawlenty will probably be an important part of the equation at the end!

The Effects Of A Government Shutdown After March 4

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How quickly people forget what happens if the government, which we all take for granted, was to “shut down”!

Of course, the defense of the United States continues, and air traffic controllers still are on the job, but in so many ways, the country and its citizens suffer if the government runs out of money and cannot come up with a compromise budget bill to support government expenditures.

In 1995, Newt Gingrich and the Republicans in Congress forced a government shutdown, which went on for two weeks, and ended up with President Bill Clinton winning the public relations battle, and going on to win a second term, and seeing the Republican party lose seats in the Congress, as a result.

But the memory of Americans is very limited as to what a government shutdown actually entails.

Here are the facts:

Health care–disease monitoring, clinical research, and toxic waste cleanup came to a halt.

Law Enforcement–delays in applications being processed by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms; delay in delinquent child support cases; cancellation in recruitment and testing of federal law enforcement officials, including border control and immigration officials.

Parks, Museums and Monuments–seven million tourists to 386 National Park Service sites prevented by closures; 2 million visitors to national museums and monuments also prevented by shutdowns; effect on local communities economically due to these closures.

Visas and Passports–20-30 thousand visa applications by foreigners unprocessed every day; 200,00 applications for passports delayed; tourist industries and airlines suffered millions of dollars in lost revenue.

Veterans Services–health, welfare, finance and travel cut back dramatically.

Federal Contractors–lost revenue in the millions of dollars, and many people furloughed without a pay check.

A shutdown would affect the American economy at a delicate moment, while in 1995, the economy was flourishing, and still the shutdown had a deleterious effect, and left a sour taste in many people’s mouths!

How can a government shut down? Only when its leader are so irresponsible as Newt Gingrich and the Republicans were then, and even worse, as John Boehner, Mitch McConnell and other GOP leaders are today, at a time when economic growth and stability should be the priority, but is obviously not the case.

To avoid a shutdown will probably require a miracle, and the Republican Party will again acquire the image as the anti government party, which yet wishes to govern!

Hopefully, the American people will turn on the party which is promoting suffering and mean spirit as their answer to the economic collapse caused by their party under President George W. Bush!

Barack Obama’s And Sarah Palin’s Effect On The Republican Presidential Race

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Here it is mid February, less than a year to the Iowa caucuses, and not one Republican has announced for President.

Instead, Indiana Congressman Mike Pence has announced that he will NOT run, and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has indicated that while he will not run in 2012, he is leaving the door open for 2016.

Why is no one announcing?

Well, it may be that many potential candidates see a race against President Obama as a difficult one, which indeed it will be. While the Republicans gained 63 seats in the House of Representatives in 2010, that is no indication that they have an edge in the Presidential race, and the fact that they control the House makes the President able to use them as a foil, and Obama is certain, eventually, to attack the Republicans on domestic policy, and to use foreign policy as a bulwark for his campaign for re-election. It should not be surprising that Jeb Bush prefers to wait to 2016 when there would be an open race without an incumbent, if one assumes Obama has the edge for 2012.

Remember that Harry Truman, Dwight D. Eisenhower and Bill Clinton won re-election despite BOTH houses being in the hands of the opposition party in the midterm election!

But also, the uncertainty about Sarah Palin, whether she will run, also muddies up the race.

Palin is looking weak in the polls, and it is hard to imagine she will give up the money making opportunities she now has to run, with the knowledge her earnings would be badly hit while she is a candidate for the White House. But she has just hired a top campaign strategist, and feels a need to react to every slight or criticism of her, including recent ones by fellow Republicans Tim Pawlenty, Rick Santorum and John Thune. Since they are not leading candidates at this point, they have decided to gamble on light criticism or teasing of Palin, but others seen as more serious candidates, including Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney, have, so far, avoided such criticism.

But Palin is the so called “800 pound elephant” in the room, and that, along with Obama’s growing strength and the feeling that he has an edge for re-election, is contributing to the fact that candidates so far are reluctant to stick their necks out and announce they are running.

Still, within the next three months, it will be necessary for candidates to announce themselves, in order to have a realistic chance to gain support and financial backing, so whether Obama looks as strong as he does now, or Palin stays out or comes into the race, the die is cast in the sense that announcement of candidacies can only be delayed so far without being seen as no longer serious contenders!

Assessment Of CPAC Winners

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There are many different ways to look at the CPAC meeting in Washington, DC this past weekend, as to who looks better or who advanced himself by his or her presentation.

It seems to this blogger that Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels and former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty came across as the best, in the sense that both should be taken more seriously after their substantive speeches.

Newt Gingrich is an intellectual heavyweight as a former professor, but while he inspired the crowd, it is hard to see him as someone who can actually overcome his many shortcomings, including being out of office for 14 years by 2012.

Mitt Romney did his usual presentation, and is probably the front runner in theory, but also has major problems ahead to win the nomination.

John Thune, who may not run, came across as a promising new face.

With Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin not at the CPAC, the others advanced somewhat just by that fact.

But it is clear the GOP race for President is wide open, and do not forget Jon Huntsman, former Ambassador to China, who is expected to run, and could have a real appeal as a centrist in a party going too far to the right for the election campaign!