In the midst of highly partisan elections being the norm in America under Donald Trump, we have the two outliers that are hard to explain.
In Maryland and Massachusetts, two heavily “Blue” states, we have very popular moderate Republican governors on their way to easy reelection victories.
Maryland, a heavily Democratic state, with strong backing from those living in the Washington DC suburbs, Larry Hogan has a 68 percent rating in his popular support, and is way ahead of Ben Jealous, the African American Democratic nominee for Governor, who was former head of the NAACP. Barack Obama twice and Hillary Clinton won the last three Presidential races by 25 to 26 points in each of those contests.
But somehow, Hogan is seen as an easy victor for a second term. He has 65 percent approval from Democrats, 64 percent backing from Independents, and 81 percent support from Republicans. Hogan has avoided being supportive of Donald Trump, and in fact, has been clearly critical of the President.
Every poll shows Hogan winning, as high as 58 percent, with a undecided percentage being as high as 10-18 percent in some polls, indicating the likelihood that Hogan will win a landslide victory of more than 60 percent in November. Hogan has had to deal with a heavily two thirds Democratic legislature and a Congressional delegation (7 Democrats to one Republican) dominated by Democrats.
Massachusetts, another heavily Democratic state, and a heavily (80 percent) Democratic legislature, and an all Democratic Congressional delegation, yet has had Republican Charlie Baker as its governor for the past four years, and in polls, Baker is ahead of his Hispanic Democratic opponent, Jay Gonzalez, by margins of 52 to 68 percent, depending on the poll. Barack Obama won by 26 and 23 percent, and Hillary Clinton by 27 points in the last three Presidential elections.
Baker has also shown himself to be a moderate Republican who has been regularly critical of Donald Trump, and has had as high as a 71 percent majority of popularity in his term of office, higher even than Larry Hogan in Maryland. One can assume that he will win two thirds or more of the vote on November 6.
So both Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker are outliers, on the way to what is conceived as a “Blue Wave”.
Winning Republican pickups, in the midterm election year 2014, was the difference for Massachusetts’s Charlie Baker and Maryland’s Larry Hogan.
If they had won those pickups in 2010, instead, we would be looking toward Democratic gubernatorial pickups of those states as well.
Winning Republican pickups of New Hampshire and Vermont, in the Republican presidential pickup year 2016, was also greatly beneficial for Chris Sununu and Phil Scott.
All four—Baker, Hogan, Sununu, and Scott—are in position to win re-elections with increased Republican support in their margins.
It was timing.
It was also having to do with how well they lead, as governors, according to perceptions of the people—not only self-identified Republicans and not only self-identified independents but also self-identified Democrats—who are being polled.
Looking at Top 20 populous states Massachusetts and Maryland—they are more likely to flip Democratic in 2022. This would be especially the case if Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump wins re-election in 2020. That is because the midterm elections of 2022 would make it, based on historical voting pattern, a year likely to see more overall Democratic gains.
Also, D, particularly in Maryland and Massachusetts both Hogan and Baker are more like the Republicans of the 1970s, moderate and centrist.
It would be saving grace if the national Republicans were to take their lead in the future, but not likely!