Day: October 2, 2008

The Biden-Palen Debate and Its Impact on the 2008 Presidential Race

I must admit that Sarah Palin did much better in the debate this evening than I would have imagined based on her disastrous interviews, particularly with Katy Couric in the past week.  She came across as friendly, cheerful, charming, and alert, although she tended to avoid many questions and focus primarily on energy policy, which she claims as her area of expertise.  She was very gracious and pleasant in greeting  Senator Joe Biden, and showing proper behavior toward her opponent, an example that Senator John McCain should follow in the two remaining Presidential debates with Senator Barack Obama.  One point that might cause Palin trouble, however, is her seeming endorsement of treating gays and lesbians with dignity and a sense of equality, a view that the evangelical right is likely to react to with fury, so it will be interesting to observe IF she backs off on that under pressure in the coming days.

Having said the above about Palin, it is still clear to me that Senator Biden clearly won this debate on points, that is based on substance, factual evidence, defense of his running mate, strong attacks on the record of Senator McCain, and promoting confidence that he was far better prepared to be Vice President and a potential future President should circumstances require such an elevation.  He was always the gentleman, but demonstrated the exceptional nature of his experience and background after 36 years in the Senate.  Joe Biden is without a doubt one of the great all time figures in the US Senate’s history, and I am sure that many of his colleagues in the Senate would endorse this view.  He is a statesman, a man of great depth on constitutional and diplomatic issues, and gives us a sense of  security that we are well protected by his presence on the national ticket and in the near future, with good fortune, as the next Vice President of the United States.

Both Palin and Biden gave their running mates a boost for the remaining 32 days of the presidential campaign, and it is still obvious that the remaining two Presidential debates will be important factors in solidifying voters’ views of who is best for our nation in the next four years.  Based on  the economic calamity we are in the midst of suffering and the public opinion poll trends, however, Senator Barack Obama still seems the likely winner on November 4.  And of course, an important factor that has been recently noted is that public opinion polls do NOT measure cell phone users’ opinions, and young voters 18-29 primarily use cell phones and theoretically, IF they vote in large numbers, are likely to favor Senator Obama.  Therefore, the lead that Obama has in many swing states might indeed be much larger than the polls indicate.

In recent days, a number of swing states have moved into the Obama camp, including Florida, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio and Missouri.  Even North Carolina and Indiana seem in play, and various electoral vote sites give Obama a commanding lead in electoral votes based on the available state polls and suggest the possibility of a landslide in the electoral vote and a solid popular vote margin.  While unpredictable events can still adjust the final result, the time is indeed short to change the direction of the nation for the Presidential election, as many undecided voters have made up their mind, and early post debate polls indeed make it clear that Biden is the apparent winner of the debate, while conceding that Palin did better than expected.  So far, it is clear that the Obama and Biden performances in their debates have added to the Democratic advantage in this turning point election.Â