With only five days to go until the Congressional Elections of 2020, this author and blogger wishes to indicate his final projection on what is likely to happen.
The House of Representatives will witness a major Democratic gain, with the estimate being about 15 seats, to a total of approximately 250 Democrats and 185 Republicans, giving the Democrats a wide margin for the next elections in 2022.
Democrats will gain seats in California, Florida, Illinois, Texas, Virginia and Pennsylvania, reaching about five more than I estimated on May 2 in my earlier projection, and a large number will be female and minority.
The US Senate will see a Democratic takeover, and have 53-55 seats. The Democrats will lose Alabama, regrettably, although Doug Jones is an exceptional Senator, the best Alabama has had in a long time, but Alabama is simply unwilling to appreciate a man as decent and accomplished as Doug Jones. If he does indeed lose his seat, however, Jones should be part of the Biden team, maybe as a cabinet member.
The Republicans will lose seven to nine seats, with assuredly the following seven gains and possibly two more:
Arizona, Mark Kelly over Martha McSally
Colorado, John Hickenlooper over Cory Gardner
Maine, Sara Gideon over Susan Collins
Georgia, Jon Ossoff over David Perdue
Montana, Steve Bullock over Steve Daines
North Carolina, Cal Cunningham over Thom Tillis
Iowa, Theresa Greenfield over Joni Ernst
Kansas, Barbara Bollier over Roger Marshall
South Carolina, Jaime Harrison over Lindsey Graham
Georgia’s other seat, presently held by Kelly Loeffler is more difficult to determine, and will not be settled until January.
Sadly, this author and blogger doubts the defeat of John Cornyn in Texas or Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, but sees the first seven listed above sure to go Blue, and Kansas and South Carolina possible, so therefore, with the loss of Alabama, but the gain of seven Republican seats, at least 53 Democrats, and the possibility of up to two more, for a grand total of 55 maximum!