It seems that the crisis over the raising the federal debt ceiling will be resolved by a compromise, which means no one gets everything they want.
However, it also seems that the Democrats and President Joe Biden will come out better than the Republicans and Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy.
The Freedom Caucus in the Republican Party in the House of Representatives and the Progressive Caucus in the Democratic Party are not happy, but the passage of the deal seems to be likely, although some Republicans in the Senate, such as Mike Lee of Utah, may try to hold up the deal.
But the Democrats are making fewer concessions compared to the Republicans, and Kevin McCarthy may face a no confidence vote from the Republican caucus, although he would seem to be likely to survive, although maybe in a weakened state.
The best part of the proposed deal is to push the debt limit issue off for two years, until after the next Presidential and Congressional Elections in 2024!
As we wake up on Wednesday January 4, the Republican Party in the House of Representatives is in free fall, a real danger to the stability of American government!
Only once since the Civil War has the House of Representatives faced the crisis it has now, a century ago, when it took 9 ballots to choose Frederick Gillett to be Speaker in 1923 in the 68th Congress.
It seems highly unlikely that Kevin McCarthy will become Speaker, as there is real animosity between him and most of the extremist right wing Freedom Caucus.
McCarthy making too many concessions to these “seditionists” will undermine his party and create a situation whereby nothing can be done, and it is an embarrasssment to the world at large to see this disaster continue to unfold!
It is time for a “coalition” House of Representatives, with a former Republican gaining the few “moderate” Republicans joining with Democrats to create a majority with some concessions to Democrats, and backing away from extremist demands of the Freedom Caucus, as the nation needs a House of Representatives who can truly “govern” in the national interest!
So some suggestions as to who could become Speaker for the next two years:
Former Congresswoman Liz Cheney of Wyoming
Former Congressman Adam Kinzinger of Illinois
Former Congressman and former Governor John Kasich of Ohio
Former Congressman Justin Amash of Michigan
Former Congressman Fred Upton of Michigan
It now seems possible that Kevin McCarthy, who has sought the Speakership of the House of Representatives for years, may yet be unable to attain it.
With a 222-213 House in favor of Republicans, McCarthy cannot afford to lose more than four members of his party, and the “Freedom Caucus” right wingers have at least five members who have indicated they will not support McCarthy for the Speakership.
So the 213 Democrats could combine with four or more moderate Republicans in the House of Representatives and elect someone else, with soon to be former Congresswoman Liz Cheney of Wyoming being a likely choice, and others suggesting former Independent Justin Amash of Michigan being also bandied about as a possible choice, as a non partisan Speaker.
The Speakership does not have to be held by a sitting member of the chamber, although that has always been the case.
So interesting times are ahead over the next five and a half weeks!
The Republican Party has an increasing number of skeptics about the Paul Ryan alternative bill to ObamaCare, which has now been scored on its effect on the budget by the Congressional Budget Office, and it is a total disaster.
All of the following are unhappy with the Affordable Care Act, or ObamaCare, as it is, but warn against the House sponsored plan:
Governor John Kasich of Ohio
Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky
Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas
Congressman Darrell Issa of California
Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska
Senator Rob Portman of Ohio
Senator Cory Gardner of Colorado
Senator Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia
Senator Susan Collins of Maine
Senator Dean Heller
But also there are the right wing extremists, the Freedom Caucus House Republicans who oppose the Ryan bill, as do the following groups:
Club For Growth
And the American Medical Association, the American Hospital Association, and the American Association Of Retired Persons, and many other groups are also totally against the legislation.
So in the midst of control of both Houses and the White House, the Republican Party is in a crisis as to how to appeal to their base, as they work to deny them health care–elderly, sick, disabled, and poor.