Eric Swalwell

The American West A Rare Location For Presidential Contenders And Nominees Historically

Historically, the vast majority of Presidential contenders and nominees have come from no further west than the Great Plains.

And only two Presidential nominees, Richard Nixon, and Ronald Reagan, have been elected from the vast area west of the Great Plains. Even Nixon, when he ran for President the second time in 1968, was actually a resident of New York, while Reagan had spent his early life in Illinois, before migrating to Hollywood for an acting career.

Only two Presidential candidates, other than Nixon and Reagan, have made it as the nominees of their party, both from Arizona–Senators Barry Goldwater and John McCain.

The Mountain States have been particularly lacking in Presidential contenders historically, with only Senator Gary Hart and Congresswoman Patricia Schroeder of Colorado; Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico; Governor Bruce Babbitt of Arizona; and Senator Frank Church of Idaho having ever conducted campaigns for President, along with Senator William Borah of Idaho early in the 20th century.

Now, we have two Coloradans, former Governor John Hickenlooper and Senator Michael Bennet, contending for the Democratic Presidential nomination, and the soon to be contending Governor Steve Bullock of Montana, expected to announce in mid May.

Looking at the Pacific Coast states, we have only had Governor Jerry Brown of California and Senator Henry (Scoop) Jackson of Washington who have contended for the Presidency, along with Senator Hiram Johnson of California attempting a run in the early 20th century.

Now, we have Senator Kamala Harris of California and Congressman Eric Swalwell of California, Governor Jay Inslee of Washington, and Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, all running for the Democratic Presidential nomination.

Other than California, the likelihood of a future nominee or winner of the Presidency from those states west of the Great Plains would seem to be highly unlikely, as the population is much smaller than in the rest of the nation, although growth has been going on in some of those states, particularly Colorado, Arizona, and Washington.

Geographical Locations Of Democratic Presidential Candidates 2020: Every Area Represented

One thing is clear as the Democratic Presidential race heats up: Every area of the nation is represented, unless one wants to list the Great Plains as a separate geographical area.

We have three people from New England—Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Seth Moulton.

We have five people from the Mid Atlantic states—Kirsten Gillibrand, Cory Booker, Joe Biden, John Delaney, Andrew Yang (Entrepreneur and Philanthropist).

We have three people from the South—Julian Castro, Beto O’Rourke, Wayne Messam (little known African American Mayor of Miramar, Florida).

We have three people from the Midwest—Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg, Tim Ryan.

We have three people from the Rocky Mountain West—John Hickenlooper, Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock (not yet announced)

We have five people from the Pacific Coast—Kamala Harris, Eric Swalwell, Marianne Williamson (Author, Lecturer, Activist), Jay Inslee, Tulsi Gabbard.

And the latest news and leaks say New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio is about to announce.

And also, while no one takes him seriously, former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel (1969-1981), who is 88 years old, and also was an announced candidate for President in 2008, is also an announced candidate.

So if you count every candidate, even those who are not serious, we have 24 candidates announced, or soon to be announced.

No more than 20 will be in the debates, and one can be assured that Messam and Gravel will be unlikely to meet the threshold required to make the debates, and that de Blasio, Bullock, and Bennet, coming in after so many others, may not make the deadline either for the first debate at the end of June.

If one leaves out the two people who are not politicians along with Messam and Gravel, with none of those four seen as having any real chance to be the nominee, we are left with:

7 Senators–Sanders, Warren, Gillibrand, Booker, Klobuchar, Bennet, Harris

6 House of Representatives or former members–Moulton, Delaney, Ryan, O’Rourke, Swalwell, Gabbard

3 Governors or former —Hickenlooper, Bullock, Inslee

3 Mayors or former—Buttigieg, Castro, de Blasio

1 Former Vice President and Senator–Biden

The Ultimate Age Battle Looking More Likely To Occur: Late 70s Male (Biden Or Sanders) Vs. Millennial Male (Buttigieg)

An amazing situation may be arising: a battle not over man against woman for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but instead a battle over age between one of two candidates, both of whom are the oldest ever to announce for President and be seen as serious potential candidates, and a candidate who would be by far the youngest President in American history, with only William Jennings Bryan in 1896 being an actually younger nominee.

This blogger is referring to Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders vs Pete Buttigieg.

Biden would be 78 and 2 months on Inauguration Day; Sanders 79 and four months on Inauguration Day; and Buttigieg 39 years and one day old on Inauguration Day.

Both Biden and Sanders are twice the age of Buttigieg.

Biden and Sanders were born in the World War II era, so they are not technically “Baby Boomers”, those born from the beginning of 1946 to the end of 1964, the era in which we have had three Presidents born in 1946 months apart, with Bill Clinton in August, George W. Bush in July, and Donald Trump in June; along with Barack Obama, born in August 1961.

Buttigieg is part of the Millennial generation born in the 1980s, born in 1982, alongside two other Millennial candidates for President, Eric Swalwell, born in 1980; and Tulsi Gabbard, born in 1981.

Will Democrats Go Back To A White Male Presidential Nominee After Three Times Not Doing So?

In the midst of a revolutionary situation in Democratic Party politics, where we have six women and four people of color announcing for President, the question arises whether the Democratic Party will go back to the old standard of a white male Presidential nominee in 2020.

It is often not thought about that the last three times, the Democrats nominated a man of color (Barack Obama), and a white woman (Hillary Clinton).

With the growing number of people of color in the population, and the clear cut advantage for Democrats among women, the question is whether that means the Democrats need to continue down the road they have been on, and in so doing, likely alienating many middle class and working class white males, particularly in the Midwest and South, who feel they are being overlooked and ignored.

So is it wise to nominate Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, Beto O’Rourke, Eric Swalwell, Tim Ryan, Jay Inslee, John Hickenlooper, John Delaney, or Seth Moulton?

The ultimate issue is what strategy is best, so that the Democrats regain the Presidency and the Senate, and retire Donald Trump, and lead to his facing criminal prosecution.

Three Millennial Presidential Contenders: Tulsi Gabbard, Pete Buttigieg, Eric Swalwell

The Presidential Election campaign of 2020 includes three millennials, those born in the 1980s, which means anyone of the three, if elected President, would be far younger than Theodore Roosevelt or John F. Kennedy.

California Congressman Eric Swalwell, born in November 1980, would be 40 years and about two months old on Inauguration Day 2021.

Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, born in April 1981, would be 39 years and about nine months old on Inauguration Day 2021.

And South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, born in January 1982, would be 39 years and one day old on Inauguration Day 2021.

John F. Kennedy was the youngest elected President, and was about 43 years and almost eight months old in January 1961, while Theodore Roosevelt, succeeding to the Presidency upon the assassination of William McKinley in September 1901, was about 42 years and and 10 and a half months old when he became President.

All three fit the image of a new generation of leadership, similar to Kennedy in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1976, Bill Clinton in 1992, and Barack Obama in 2008.

The odds are growing that Pete Buttigieg may be that leader, after his official opening of his campaign on Sunday, with an inspired message to his supporters in South Bend, Indiana.

Reality Of Democratic Presidential Contenders: They MUST Win Home Or Regional State Primary Or Caucus To Survive To Later Battles

With up to two dozen or more Democrats as Presidential contenders, history tells us that such candidates MUST win their home or regional state primary or caucus in 2020 to survive to later battles.

As a result, we will see winnowing down of candidates during the month of February and early March 2020, after some candidates drop out as a result of a poor performance (by comparison and journalistic judgment) at upcoming debates being held monthly starting in late June and the early primaries and caucuses.

So IF Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren fail to win New Hampshire and or Massachusetts. their candidacies will be effectively over.

So IF Amy Klobuchar, or Pete Buttigieg, or Tim Ryan fail to win Iowa or Minnesota or Michigan or Ohio or Missouri, their candidacies are dead in the water.

So if Julian Castro or Beto O’Rourke fail to win Texas, they will be knocked out of the race for the White House.

So if Kamala Harris or Cory Booker cannot win in South Carolina, with its heavily African American Democratic registration, their Presidential candidacies are doomed.

So if Kamala Harris, or Eric Swalwell, or Tulsi Gabbard, or Jay Inslee, or John Hickenlooper fail to win California or Nevada or Washington, their campaigns will effectively end.

All of the states mentioned above have their primaries or caucuses taking place between February 3 and March 10.

The state of New York will also have its primaries in either February or early March, still undetermined, and Cory Booker or Kirsten Gillibrand would be expected to win that state in order to survive for a longer period.

Notice that the one “national” candidate who does not need to win any specific state or group of states to be viable is former Vice President Joe Biden, who could lose some, win some, but would likely have greater staying power in the race than anyone else.

So by the “Ides Of March” (March 15 or two days later, March 17, when Florida, Arizona, Illinois, and Colorado have had their primaries), we are likely to know who the Democratic nominee is for President.

House Of Representatives Presidential Contenders At All Time High

An astounding reality about the upcoming Presidential Election of 2020 is that we are witnessing an all time high in contenders who are or have been members of the House of Representatives.

In the past, there was an occasional man or woman who was serving in the lower chamber who announced , but tradition is that Governors or Senators, or cabinet officers or military generals would be the nominees.

But now, we have four announced Democratic members of Congress present or past in the race, and two more likely to join the fray.

We have former Congressman John Delaney of Maryland, and former Congressman Beto O’Rourke of Texas.

We also have sitting members of the House of Representatives who have begun their campaign, including Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, and Tim Ryan of Ohio.

Still pending and likely to join the fray are Eric Swalwell of California, and Seth Moulton of Massachusetts.

At this point, O’Rourke seems the most serious candidate, but who can say that one of more of the others might not catch fire, and be a serious candidate?

The Best 14 Potential Democratic Presidential Candidates For 2020

As one looks ahead to 2020, this author and blogger wishes to indicate who he considers to be the 14 best potential Democratic Presidential candidates for 2020.

There are an estimated 30 or more potential candidates who might announce for President, but many of them seem wanting in many respects, and as stated by this author yesterday, having more than about a dozen would be counterproductive.

Of course, individual politicians who wish to run are not going to concern themselves with numbers, but I wish to indicate the list that I feel is the most legitimate, and most likely, that we will see the final few Presidential contenders emerging  as  serious possibilities.

So in no special order, except by geographical sections, here goes:

Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont

Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts

Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut

Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey

Former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware

Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio

Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota

Former San Antonio Mayor and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro of Texas

Former Congressman Robert Francis (Beto) O’Rourke of Texas

Governor Steve Bullock of Montana

Senator Jeff Merkley of Oregon

Senator Kamala Harris of California

Mayor Eric Garcetti of Los Angeles

Congressman Eric Swalwell of California

So the list includes 8 Senators, 2 House members past or present, three Mayors past or present, 1 Governor, and 1 former Vice President of the United State, who served in the Senate for 36 years..

It is an impressive list, heavily weighted toward US Senators, but with some alternatives from elsewhere, and some from farther left and others more toward the moderate center, with the question being what is the best strategy for the Democrats for the Presidential campaign of 2020.

Two Mayors Potential 2020 Democratic Presidential Contenders: Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti And Former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu

At least two Democrats who have served as Mayors of their cities are likely to enter the Democratic Presidential sweepstakes.

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti has spent his entire career in city government, serving on the LA City Council before his election as Mayor of the second largest city in 2013. He has had to deal with the issues facing nearly four million people, and has spent time in Iowa and New Hampshire, hinting of his plans to seek the Presidency. Garcetti has ties to the Jewish, Italian, and Mexican communities as he is ethnically related to all three groups.

Of course, California will also likely be the state that will contribute other potential nominees, including Senator Kamala Harris and Congressman Eric Swalwell, and potentially billionaire and liberal activist Tom Steyer, who has led the impeachment movement against Donald Trump.

Former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu offers the rare case of a Southerner who might be able to gain some traction, having served as Mayor from 2010-2018, after earlier service as Lieutenant Governor of the state, and as a member of the state House of Representatives. He is seen as a moderate, in the vein of Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton in the past, but most observers would see him as more likely to be a potential Vice Presidential running mate to help a more progressive Presidential nominee.

The odds of Garcetti lasting longer in the Presidential competition than Landrieu seems likely, but at this early point, there is no way to know what the political future holds.

Five Or Even Six Potential California Presidential Candidates In 2020: Kamala Harris, Eric Garcetti, Eric Swalwell, Tom Steyer, Gavin Newsom, Jerry Brown

California may have up to five or six Democratic Presidential candidates competing in the primaries and caucuses in 2020.

Senator Kamala Harris, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, and Congressman Eric Swalwell all are expected to announce in the coming months.

Additionally, entrepreneur and political activist Tom Steyer has been promoting the impeachment of Donald Trump in the past year, and the Los Angeles resident is believed to be planning to run as well.

And some think even newly minted Governor Gavin Newsom might also decide to announce for President.

And get this, even outgoing Governor Jerry Brown, age 80 now, might even, it is rumored, decide to try for the Presidency for a fourth time, as he did in 1976, 1980, and 1992.

California is one out of every eight people, and with the California primary slated for March 3, 2020, it could be a Californian who wins the primary, and gets the largest portion of delegates out of a total larger than any other state.

So to ignore California is to do so at one’s own risk.