Likely Shifts In Political Power In The House Of Representatives And The Electoral College After The 2020 Census

With the 2020 Census only seven months from now, attention is being paid to the likely shifts in political power in the House of Representatives and the Electoral College, after reapportionment of seats based on population changes.

Normally, about 16 states see the number of their Congressional seats and their total number of electoral votes changed up or down.

Right now, subject to change, the following 7 states will gain seats in the House starting in 2022, and electoral votes for the 2024 and 2028 Presidential election cycles:

Texas–3 seat gain

Florida–2 seat gain

North Carolina–1 seat gain

Arizona –1 seat gain

Colorado–1 seat gain

Oregon–1 seat gain

Montana–1 seat gain

These 7 states will gain a total of 10 seats and electoral votes.

The following 9 states will lose Congressional seats and electoral votes:

New York–2 seat loss

Pennsylvania–1 seat loss

Ohio–1 seat loss

Illinois–1 seat loss

Michigan–1 seat loss

West Virginia–1 seat loss

Alabama–1 seat loss

Rhode Island–1 seat loss

Also, either Minnesota might have a 1 seat loss, OR California, for the first time ever, might have a 1 seat loss.

Rhode Island had two House seats throughout its history, except for one decade when it had three seats, but now will have a Congressman At Large for the whole state in 2023. Montana had two House seats from 1913-1993, then a Congressman At Large for the whole state, and will return to two House seats in 2023, due to rapid growth. Rhode Island has not grown much at all in population, and soon will be surpassed by Montana.

Note that the long trend of the Sun Belt states gaining House seats and electoral votes continues, and the Rust Belt states losing House seats and electoral votes. The South and the West will continue to gain, while the Northeast and Midwest will continue to lose influence.