With the 2020 Census only seven months from now, attention is being paid to the likely shifts in political power in the House of Representatives and the Electoral College, after reapportionment of seats based on population changes.
Normally, about 16 states see the number of their Congressional seats and their total number of electoral votes changed up or down.
Right now, subject to change, the following 7 states will gain seats in the House starting in 2022, and electoral votes for the 2024 and 2028 Presidential election cycles:
Texas–3 seat gain
Florida–2 seat gain
North Carolina–1 seat gain
Arizona –1 seat gain
Colorado–1 seat gain
Oregon–1 seat gain
Montana–1 seat gain
These 7 states will gain a total of 10 seats and electoral votes.
The following 9 states will lose Congressional seats and electoral votes:
New York–2 seat loss
Pennsylvania–1 seat loss
Ohio–1 seat loss
Illinois–1 seat loss
Michigan–1 seat loss
West Virginia–1 seat loss
Alabama–1 seat loss
Rhode Island–1 seat loss
Also, either Minnesota might have a 1 seat loss, OR California, for the first time ever, might have a 1 seat loss.
Rhode Island had two House seats throughout its history, except for one decade when it had three seats, but now will have a Congressman At Large for the whole state in 2023. Montana had two House seats from 1913-1993, then a Congressman At Large for the whole state, and will return to two House seats in 2023, due to rapid growth. Rhode Island has not grown much at all in population, and soon will be surpassed by Montana.
Note that the long trend of the Sun Belt states gaining House seats and electoral votes continues, and the Rust Belt states losing House seats and electoral votes. The South and the West will continue to gain, while the Northeast and Midwest will continue to lose influence.
The changes in states’ electoral votes takes effect in 2024 (which will also be applicable for 2028).
The 2016 Untied States presidential election was a Republican pickup for Donald Trump having won an original 306 electoral votes. This listing shows that, with a reallocation of electoral votes for applicable states, the map for Trump would be 309 electoral votes.
Barack Obama’s Democratic pickup of the presidency of the United States, in 2008, saw him win with 365 electoral votes. The 2010 U.S. Census Bureau’s report of population changes made the 2008 map, starting in 2012, become 359 electoral votes. (Obama lost from his 2008 column Indiana, North Carolina, and Nebraska 2nd Congressional District, a net loss of –27 electoral votes, for a 2012 re-election of 332 electoral votes.)
This is actually better, heading into 2020 than it was with 2010, for the Democrats. From 2016, along with the party’s Nos. 24 (Florida) best state, their Nos. 25 (Arizona), 26 (North Carolina), and 29 (Texas) best states—which will combine for a net gain of +7 electoral votes—are on the way to becoming bellwethers.
Below video description from “The Real News Networkâ€: “A North Carolina state court panel stopped the GOP’s gerrymandering plan by ruling that the maps drawn for GOP-dominated voting districts were in [violation] of the state’s constitution, and of the rights of North Carolina voters†[September 6, 2019].
https://youtu.be/WMN_OuWZ3og