The Democratic Party, which looked on the edge of becoming the dominant party in America, at least on the Presidential level, now is faced with the possibility of a long term status as the party that can win the coast lines and the majority of the popular vote for President, but still lose the Electoral College again and again, with twice in the past generation, 2000 and now 2016.
By all estimates, in the long run, whatever that means, the demographic changes in America will insure that the Democrats will eventually have a tremendous advantage, but for now, the situation is gloomy, as the Democrats only gained 6 House seats and 2 Senate seats, and the loss of Russ Feingold in Wisconsin and Evan Bayh in Indiana, when both were heavily favored, was startling.
So the job is to recruit a future generation of leadership on the state level as well as the national level, and unfortunately, the Democrats on the national level have just shot themselves in the foot, by electing once again the same old team (all in their mid 70s) of Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, and James Clyburn to leadership of their party in the House of Representatives.
And picking an African American and first Muslim in Congress, Keith Ellison of Minnesota, as the Democratic National Chairman, which now seems inevitable with Howard Dean withdrawing from the race, is not exactly the greatest choice either.
So can the Democrats recover in 2018? They likely would gain some seats in the House of Representatives, but not control, and the Senate will be almost impossible not to lose seats, as 25 of 33 seats up for election are Democratic seats, so the future is gloomy, as the situation now seems.
Joe Biden is talking about running in 2020.
http://www.msnbc.com/brian-williams/watch/joe-biden-hints-at-possible-2020-run-for-president-825633347897
Need more electors like this guy. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/05/opinion/why-i-will-not-cast-my-electoral-vote-for-donald-trump.html?_r=0
Pragmatic Progressive,
Joe Biden has said a lot over the years.
I dismiss it.
Here is a fact: No one who voted for the war in Iraq—while a member of the U.S. Senate or U.S. House—has been elected to the presidency of the United States.
• John Kerry (2004)—he lost.
• John McCain (2008)—he lost.
• Hillary Clinton (2016)—she lost.
Joe Biden will never be president of the United States.
I don’t think he will because of his age. He’ll be almost 80 by then. Young, fresh blood is what we need running.
The Democrats need a charismatic leader with a strong personality – the type who’d inspire their base to go out and vote.
Southern Liberal, Joe Biden will be 78 shortly after Election Day in November 2020.
Princess Leia, your description–charismatic, strong personality, inspire their base to go out and vote–actually, perfectly, describes Joe Biden.
But his age is a problem, and D is correct that no one voting for the Iraq War has been elected, although by 2020, Iraq will be very distant from 2002-2003 when the vote took place to back George W Bush.
Of course, one COULD say that Hillary won the popular vote by a vast margin, more than JFK, Nixon the first time, and Carter, and she might surpass Obama’s 2012 total of popular votes as well!
But honestly, no one on the horizon looks any more likely to inspire working class whites, as Joe comes from them, and is the least wealthy US Senator and Vice President, and knows how to relate, so who can say what might happen in 2020?
Not only will he be too old but also too white and too male for the Democratic Party in 2020. Demographics are changing. People of color are eventually going to make up a majority of the U.S. population.
Yes, Rational Lefty, but for the foreseeable future, one wonders whether women, African Americans, Latinos, and Jews are positives in a Presidential race, where the declining white majority still holds a great amount of power, as shown in the Trump election.
So it could be that only a Biden, a Kaine,an O’Malley, etc, all white Christians, can win a Presidential race in the near term future.
And having a Black Muslim, Keith Ellison as DNC Chair, is also a losing proposition, considering the situation now present.
Princess Leia writes,
“The Democrats need a charismatic leader with a strong personality — the type who’d inspire their base to go out and vote.”
They have had them: Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.
We have zig-zagged back and forth between parties. Eight-year spreads: 1992—Democratic pickup winner Bill Clinton unseated Republican president George Bush. 2000—Republican pickup winner George W. Bush won the open-seat race over incumbent Democratic vice president Al Gore. 2008—Democratic pickup winner Barack Obama won the open-seat race over Republican nominee John McCain. 2016—Republican pickup winner Donald Trump won the open-seat race over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
2016 was a winnable year, for a third consecutive cycle, for the Democrats. (They’re lately going around hanging their hat on the popular-vote win. I explained how we had the split outcome here: https://www.theprogressiveprofessor.com/?p=29196 .) The Democrats blew it with nominating the wrong candidate [Hillary Clinton], given the kind of year with the mood of the country, and they smeared the correct candidate [Bernie Sanders], and then became further out of touch and eventually shocked that a populist on the Republican side won. (The Hillary Clinton campaign people, and Hillary Clinton herself, are still not accepting accountability of their failure. David Brock, the smear merchant who attacked Anita Hill in the early-1990s. had no business being on this campaign/ And, after the election, he reportedly went courting wealthy Democrats. That calls into question whether voters may have indeed made the right move in electing Trump over Hillary. Given the creepiness and disgusting operation of the Hillary Clinton campaign, it is a worthy question.)
I don’t think “charismatic” is enough. (There is talk of New Jersey U.S. senator Cory Booker for 2020. I’ve seen him defend Mitt Romney and Bain Capital during Election 2012. No way should Booker be the nominee, in either 2020 or 2024, let alone president. He would not provide the needed type of leadership from a Democratic Party president of the United States. And he’s charismatic.)
SUBSTANCE is important. How a Democratic president leads is very important. I think Barack Obama has been overpraised. He continued with wars, national security (surveillance) policies that started with Republican George W. Bush. (People felt, on this, that Obama was no different. Some people felt like he became worse than Bush.) He did nothing for the unionized teachers in Wisconsin and was silent for most of the North Dakota access pipeline. His credit is for getting us through the economic meltdown and with unemployment numbers much more favorable. Good! But, the Affordable Care Act was a sellout to the insurance industry (no single payer; no public option). And, as a consequence, his party lost majority control of the U.S. House in 2010; although re-elected in 2012, he had the uncommon experience of reduced margins and states carried and electoral votes; his party lost majority control of the U.S. Senate in 2014; and with the Obama/third term-like Hillary Clinton, his party lost the White House with the presidential election of 2016.
Right now, the Democrats are in perilous shape with regard for state legislatures. The Republicans have full control in over 30 states. They are getting close to being able to change the U.S. Constitution. This Democratic Party needs to contrast themselves with the Republican Party…and not merely on branding. They need to once again become the Party of Franklin Roosevelt and say good-bye to being the Party of Bill Clinton. Electing Wall Street Democrat Chuck Schumer (who wanted nominations for losers Katie McGinty in Pennsylvania and Patrick Murphy in Florida) and Nancy Pelosi (who has had a party majority only four of her fourteen years) as leaders in the U.S. Senate and U.S. House does not show us an encouraging sign that the party is getting serious. It may be showing us a sign that the party does not care.
D – Only the fringe left agrees with you about Obama.
I have to agree here with Pragmatic Progressive, D.
I highly respect you, D, but if the Democratic Party is perceived as too far left, it will never win an election, as we are not a leftist leaning nation, as I see it.
One has to be, as the name is used here, a Pragmatic Progressive, and I am far less critical of Barack Obama than you seem to be at this time.
And honestly. I do not see how Bernie Sanders would have won, with his being Jewish, and the Socialist label.
In my mind, Joe Biden would have been able to win the working class vote in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, particularly the latter.
D, you and I can have disagreements, but again, it does not lower my esteem for you.
On this, however, I am of a different view, respectfully!
This is what Rational Lefty is referring to – because of changing demographics, red states are going to be the new Democratic battlegrounds:
http://www.thepeoplesview.net/main/2016/12/6/our-girl-how-hillary-clinton-paved-the-way-for-democrats-to-lock-up-300-electoral-votes-within-a-generation
A list of things Democrats have done:
They created Social Security. They have also improved it repeatedly, from its admittedly racist beginnings and made it universal. They have also twice taken the Social Security Trust Fund out of the general budget. (Guess who put it there…)
Created Medicare, a single payer plan for the elderly that has made the over-65 demographic the healthiest in the nation.
Created Medicaid, to provide the very poor with health care.
Created and passed the Affordable Care Act, which made insurance available to virtually everyone, which makes healthcare more affordable.
Created the EPA and passed significant environmental regulation.
Brought us out of the Great Depression and regulated stock markets and banned trade fraud so that we haven’t had a depression since.
Created bank and financial services regulation designed to prevent collapses
Created Bank Deposit insurance, paid for by banks, which provided banks with the ability to finance home buying.
Passed legislation requiring banks to pay back bailout money.
Passed the GI Bill
Created Student Financial Aid
Took student loans away from the banks and removed the private profit motive.
Created the Occupational Safety & Health Administration and Workplace safety regulations.
Created trade regulation to ensure that domestic and imported products are safe.
Established regular food inspections for foodborne illness and to monitor safe processing practices
Created the CDC and established disease monitoring.
Banned certain types of military-style weapons that are unnecessary in civilian hands.
Created a background check system for gun purchases
Established and regularly raise the minimum wage
Established unemployment Insurance and increase it to reflect inflation.
Established the Food Stamp/SNAP system.
Created cash welfare for the very poor.
Established school lunch programs for poor children.
Raised tax rates on the rich to pay for society, and created tax breaks to fuel economic growth.
Balanced the budget and even created a surplus.
Raised the debt ceiling whenever necessary to keep the government functioning, and always paid the bills, as the Constitution demands.
A list of things Republicans have done or tried to do:
Repeatedly try to kill Social Security and repeatedly push the Trust Fund into the general budget, to hide their deficit spending.
Cut taxes to the bone for those with the most money, while raising taxes for everyone else.
Repeatedly attempt to replace Medicare with a voucher program that won’t protect seniors.
Repeatedly cut Medicaid, so that most poor aren’t eligible, except under the ACA.
State Republicans refuse Medicaid money that their citizens have paid to expand health coverage.
Voted at least six dozen times to kill the Affordable Care Act, with no plan to replace it. Theyalso didn’t vote for it in the first place.
Repeatedly kill environmental regulations, in favor of unfettered fossil fuel development.
Put us behind the rest of the world by killing federally funded solar, wind and geothermal programs.
Passed Gramm-Leach-Bliley, which repealed Glass-Steagall and created a completely unregulated market for mortgage securities that almost caused another Great Depression.
Passed regulations that caused the Great Depression.
After the Bush Recession that they caused, they approved a bank bailout plan with no requirement for payback.
Repeatedly cut funds for student financial aid, creating an over-reliance on federally -guaranteed student loans, which amounted to a windfall for banks.
Repeatedly refused to cut interest rates on student loans, thus creating a profit for the government.
Repeatedly refuse to hike taxes on the rich, even when they face record-setting deficits.
Repeatedly cut funding for OSHA enforcement.
Repeatedly cut funding for the FTC, FDA, etc., making domestic and imported products less safe.
Repeatedly cut funding for food inspection programs, causing the number of foodborne illnesses to spike in recent years.
Cut funding for the CDC and disease monitoring, leading to several outbreaks and no vaccines to stop them.
Let the ban on military-style weapons expire.
Refused to consider a universal background check law for gun purchases, even though 92% of Americans were in favor, including most gun owners and NRA members.
Refuse to raise the minimum wage, which has fallen well behind inflation.
Cut off unemployment insurance (which workers pay for) for millions, during recovery from the Bush Recession, which they caused..
Cut funding for Food Stamps (SNAP) during an economic recovery.
Repeatedly cut funding for welfare for the poor, even during a recovery from a recession. Right now, fewer than 25% of those in poverty get any cash assistance at all.
Repeatedly cut funding for school lunch programs.
They were handed a balanced budget in 2001, and cut taxes to the bone for the rich and spent tons of money for two wars off-the-books, which exploded it again, even during a record economic bubble.
Shut down the government twice.
In 2013, 144 Republicans actually voted to default on the national debt.
The list of things the Democrats have done is why we vote for their party.
In addition to the Democrats protecting the social safety net and the environment, we vote for their party because they fight to protect civil rights, women’s rights, and LGBT rights.
What it will take to create a pluralistic social democracy. http://washingtonmonthly.com/2016/12/07/what-it-will-take-to-create-a-pluralistic-social-democracy/#.WEhxBi4fbdI.facebook
Thanks, Princess Leia, for your great lists on Democrats and Republicans.
And thanks Rustbelt Democrat, for the People’s View article about the long term Democratic advantage in Texas. Arizona, and Georgia!
Pragmatic Progressive and Ronald,
I encourage you both to view the following video.…
http://youtu.be/SchCRMbzVnk
One more video…
http://youtu.be/EYuNHaILYyg
D, I have watched both videos, and agree with much of what these people say.
I have stated that reelecting the same House leadership is a mistake.
I agree that changes in strategy need to be instituted.
However, I fail to be convinced that Bernie Sanders would have been elected, as the Republicans would have used his so called Socialism against him, and his being Jewish, although not religious,would have been a weapon against him, as anti Semitism is part of the Trump -Bannon-Flynn playbook, even though Trump’s son in law is Jewish.
We even see wealthy Jews like Mnuchin being hired. but that will only promote more anti Semitism, and wealthier Jews, who are Republicans, will overlook it, or deny it is happening.
We need a new generation of leadership in the Democratic Party, which I had thought Martin O’Malley might have represented, but instead we had old people, senior citizens, as the major competitors, so we must rebuild the party and make the Trump agenda the issue, and vigorously offer alternatives.
The odds are good that we will have a counter revolution among many working class people when they realize they have been lied to, and Democrats need to stop being on the defensive.
Thanks for sharing these videos.
I’ve watched both videos as well. It’s fringe left nonsense. This blog is more representative of the views of most Democrats: https://www.facebook.com/SmartypantsBlog
Exactly right Rustbelt!
I second that as well Rustbelt.
List of Obama’s accomplishments. http://pleasecutthecrap.com/obama-accomplishments/
President Obama is leaving our nation in a much better place than it was when he took office. Unfortunately, Dump is going to ruin it again.
Rational Lefty, a GREAT list, and I have seen this before. Thanks!
Ronald,
A lot can, and has, happened in our nation’s history.
This includes what one may have thought could not happen (as you can see in this video).…
http://youtu.be/F1HguZOOVnk
We’ve never thought a “President Trump” would be a funny thing.
Pretty much to expand upon what Leia said:
We criticize the mainstream media for not taking the idea of Trump as President more seriously.
We would get so mad at some of these daytime shows for letting him constantly phone in and spout off whatever lunacy he pleased without being challenged.
However, we ourselves, did see him as a threat.
A few more things we’ve criticized the media about:
a) They didn’t provide balanced coverage. Saw more of Dump and his rallies than you did Hillary.
b) They didn’t talk much about policy. She and the Democrats had a platform that would have strongly benefited the working class, and the majority of working class voters and voters who named the economy as their number one issue voted for her, by the way.(https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/12/hillary-clinton-working-class/509477/). However, much of the media wanted to talk more about her email server, which was a non-scandal. (http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/4/13500018/clinton-email-scandal-bullshit)
That article from the Atlantic nails it. Dump voters didn’t want a multi-ethnic social democracy.
Did “The Atlantic†mention that Donald Trump came out against the TPP before Hillary Clinton—and he was, going by his path to victory on the map, more believable than she in being against bad trade deals?
In that “Atlantic†take on the outcome of Election 2016, I don’t recall one other vital fact: in addition to it being an issue of “economics†and class [income inequality], it was also an anti-Establishment year for picking a new U.S. President. The Republican presidential primaries voters made that happen. The Democratic presidential primaries voters did the opposite.
The fact that those stupid Trump voters sent incumbents back to Congress shows to us that this wasn’t an anti-establishment vote.
LOL! The only things Trump talked about was building a wall, banning Muslims, and locking her up.
People of color didn’t feel the Bern.
http://www.thepeoplesview.net/main/2015/7/16/bernie-sanders-race-problem-why-people-of-color-arent-feeling-the-bern
Princess Leia,
There was a reason I wrote the sentence, “…it was an anti-Establishment year for picking a new U.S. President.â€
I addressed, in a seprate blog entry, that all states with scheduled U.S. Senate seats had the same-party coattail result. (Louisiana came in yesterday. That, too, is applicable.)
Rational Lefty,
What you wrote was material Donald Trump used to campaign and getting his base to absolutely show up. He did politics—and he motivated them to be there for him in the primaries and, later, the general election.
Trump talked, rather early (like those late-2015 Republican debates), about being against bad trade deals—and being against the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
Southern Liberal,
I know about the Democratic presidential primaries. But, admittedly, I wasn’t sure where blacks aged 17–29 ended up. Nationally, that age group, as a whole, backed Bernie Sanders with at least 70 percent of their vote. So, it is possible he carried the 17–29 black voters nationally—or at least in those states where he won 17–29 voters, as a whole, with at least 80 percent of their vote. (One of those states is Barack Obama’s home and Hillary Clinton’s birth state Illinois, in he received 86 percent from voters 17–29.)
I will note that black voters were critical to Hillary Clinton’s declined support in her attempt to hold the White House in the Democratic column.
According to CNN’s exit polls @ http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president/#exit-polls …
In 2012, blacks were 13 percent the size of the vote nationwide. They gave Barack Obama 93 percent of their vote.
According to CNN’s exit polls @ http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/national/president …
In 2016, blacks were 12 percent the size of the vote nationwide. They gave Hillary 89 percent of their vote.
Mathematically, blacks’ Democratic Party votes, from 2012 to 2016, went from 12.09 percent [Obama] to 10.68 percent [Hillary].
Effective December 11, 2016, at 05:30 p.m. ET, Hillary leads Trump by +2.08 percentage points. (Obama won nationally, over Mitt Romney, by +3.86 percentage points.) That is a national Democatic decline of –1.78. And from that –1.78 decline was a decline of –1.41 from black voters.
Hillary did very well with black voter…in the primaries.
Thanks again, D, for your detailed analysis!
Trump’s cabinet picks tell you everything. He’s making a government of/for/by the huge corporations, fossil fuel interests and super-rich. Shows that he totally conned the “white working classâ€.
D – The basic fact is:
a) Many Democratic voters aren’t ultra-liberal like you are.
b) Many Democratic voters are pragmatic.
c) Many Democrats consider social issues to be just as important as economic issues.
Voter suppression tactics by the GOP is part of why you had the low turnout. https://thinkprogress.org/2016-a-case-study-in-voter-suppression-258b5f90ddcd#.o0irs45fv
While on his “feed his ego” tour, Dump is gloating cause black voters didn’t turn out.
https://thinkprogress.org/trump-black-voters-didnt-vote-92316ddd0400#.hepe8xpca
Speaking of cabinet picks –
BPI Campus is another progressive blog we check out from time to time. They brought up an idea of having cabinet debates.
A candidate’s possible cabinet choices is one of the things we base our voting on.
https://bpicampus.com/2016/12/08/theres-no-difference-between/
Rustbelt Democrat,
I have some questions for you:
Q#01: Which of the following will officially become the 45th president of the United States:
A. Donald Trump [R-New York]
B. Hillary Clinton [D-New York]
Q#02: Which of the two major political parties will have majority control of the United States Senate?
A. The Republican Party
B. The Democratic Party
Q#03: Which of the two major political parties will have majority control of the United States House of Representative?
A. The Republican Party
B. The Democratic Party
Q#04: Which of the two major political parties will have majority of Governor mansions in the United States?
A. The Republican Party
B. The Democratic Party
Q#05: Which of the two major political parties will have over control of more than 30 state legislatures (a number close to being able to change the United States Constitution)?
A. The Republican Party
B. The Democratic Party
Answer to all those questions – ReThugs that stole the election.
We need focus doggedly on our issues, and organize to work around the roadblocks that the Trump administration is going to throw up. We should have confidence that on the issues and the character of our candidate, we had the far better part of the debate, and stick to our guns.
Amen to that Leia! 🙂
November 7, 2017 will give us the clearest indication yet of whether the Democratic Party has its groove back. If the party wins the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections, it will demonstrate that Democrats still have plenty of fight left in them.
That will certainly be a significant moment, Rational Lefty!
Quite right Leia. Wise words of wisdom.
Election Day was November 8, 2016. Shortly after that, Ralph Nader was a guest on Thom Hartmann’s program “The Big Picture.†Here is the interview of discussing the results…
http://youtu.be/_rRkqYuv3_8
With the 2018 midterm congressional elections in mind, here is a reponse to a portion of that interview…
http://youtu.be/TmUiMHjkpnI
Republicans we know – family and friends, unfortunately – could care less about TPP. It’s not an issue that personally affects them. For them, this election was about a changing culture. They hated the idea of a black president followed by a woman president possibly followed by an LGBT president and so on.
Former Republican, it is so sad to hear what you wrote, but it is so true, the level of hate, and much of it from people who claim to be “good” Christians!
Jesus would not agree with these people who claim to follow him!
D – Lawrence O’Donnell speaks more to our viewpoints than these videos you keep posting do.
Precisely Rational Lefty.
We, nor any Democrats we associate with, are not part of the Chomsky Left on the liberal spectrum. We are not deeply suspicious of everyone and everything, we believe compromise must be made to achieve liberal goals. The blogs we read and media we listen to reflect those viewpoints.
On the blogs that we read, Thom Hartmann, Glenn Greenwald, etc. often get criticized for not using constructive criticism.
Rational Lefty writes,
“D – Lawrence O’Donnell speaks more to our viewpoints than these videos you keep posting do.”
If there is a topic to which Lawrence O’Donnell speaks, please direct me to it with a link (especially if it is a video). I would like to check it out. This goes for not only Lawrence O’Donnell but also anyone else.
Very true, Pragmatic. For example, you’re not ever likely to hear Glenn Greenwald outline his ideas on a response to ISIS or the proper role of spying in a democracy. As long as the critique doesn’t include a suggestion for how to improve, it’s not something that you want to pay a lot of attention to.
His videos from his show are posted here: http://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word
In addition to him, we watch Rachel Maddow at night. On weekend mornings, we watch Joy Reid.
At supper time each week, we’ve been watching ABC Nightly News. Before that comes on, we watch our local news.
Other than that, we read news articles on CNN’s website and read news articles on our local newspaper’s website, and read some pragmatic progressive/liberal blogs.
One of our pragmatic progressive/liberal blogs includes a blog for our state’s politics.
D – Basically, we, just like many of our relatives and friends who are Democrats, are mainstream people.
On social issues, we lean left. On economic and foreign policy, our views are in the middle.
This sums up what progressivism is about for us. It’s not about ideology.
http://genprogress.org/voices/2005/07/13/14051/what-is-progressive/
A follow-up to what I wrote about the 30-plus state legislatures now with the Republican Party…
The state legislatures are why it’s important to support and vote for down ballot candidates as well. In politics, it’s all about thinking globally, starting locally.
We have to find ways to UNDO the blatant gerrymandering the GOP put in place in after the last couple censuses.
Grassroots organization is important to us winning back governorships and state legislatures.
We need to do a better job at telling those who don’t vote why it’s important to vote.
Southern Liberal, Pragmatic, Leia, Rational Lefty – Great ideas ladies! 🙂
In addition to fighting gerrymandering, we need to continue fighting voter suppression.
D – Instead of complaining, the thing you can do to help our nation out of its predicament is to get actively involved in your local Democratic Party and, if it isn’t functioning well or is being too timid, take it over and remake it as an aggressive and effective voice for progressive values.
Re: grassroots organizing
The success of Moral Mondays should be our national template.
http://shareblue.com/the-success-of-moral-mondays-in-north-carolina-is-a-template-for-national-resistance/
Former Republican,
I have been considering it.
Thank you!
Here in rural America, 90% get their information from Fox News, hate radio, and the Drudge Report. We need to figure out how to burst that bubble.
The path forward. http://bluevirginia.us/2016/12/setting-d-path-forward-moving-anger-blame-honest-assessment