Republican Officeholders Hope Split Ticket Voting Will Work In November, But Highly Unlikely To Be A Major Factor

Republican officeholders are hoping that the concept of split ticket voting will work in November, that their constituents will know who they are, and will support them even if they find Donald Trump distasteful.

That is a dangerous assumption, that historically does not work. On the average in recent years, statistics show that only about ten percent of voters, particularly in Presidential election years, actually vote split ticket.

Since 2004, the President who wins has coattail effect, the opposite of the previous generation. It seems that more people are deciding that they wish to give the President the ability to get things done, rather than trying to blockade him from accomplishing his goals.

Of course, a lot has to do with the officeholder’s record in office, and different states have different political cultures.

But it seems likely that with Hillary Clinton favored to win the White House, and so many Republican seats up this round, that we will see, at the least, the gaining of Democratic control of the US Senate, and at least, a closer division in the House of Representatives, although the 30 seat gain needed to win control is a real long shot.

For the Senate, the goal for the Democrats has to be to gain as many seats as possible, as some are likely to be lost in 2018, when in the midterm elections, there are more Democratic seats up. The tendency in recent midterms has been to have a counter reaction against the party of the President, as a way to express disapproval of the President’s record and agenda.