I have been fortunate enough as an historian and political pundit to gain the opportunity this year, and moving forward, to have articles published on the great History website, History News Network.
I have had 14 articles already published, and on Monday, my projection for the Presidential Election of 2016 will be published, so look at the website after Monday morning.
I want to thank Rick Shenkman of HNN for allowing me the chance to publish on his website.
Eventually, all of the articles are put on the right side of my blog under “Articles”, with all 14 of them published so far being found there.
I was also fortunate enough to have one HNN article republished on Time online on April 4, already on the “Articles” list on this blog.
I appreciate it when my readers look at these articles, which are short, succinct, and timely about events and controversies in the political world!
Thanks very much!
Ronald,
I think we are going to see the first Electoral College landslide of 400 or more electoral votes since 1988.
This Republican Party will actually nominate Donald Trump. And I think self-identified Republicans who are not party loyalists to the point of destruction are going to make an accepting with Trump in a way like they did against Barry Goldwater in 1964. Combine that with solidified Democratic support and independents siding with the Democrats, and Election Night can be an Early Night.
In 2012, Barack Obama was re-elected by nearly 4 percentage points in the U.S. Popular Vote with 26 states plus District of Columbia for 332 electoral votes.
Hillary Clinton may end up winning nationally by closer to 14 percentage points—which means, instead of Obama’s 51 to Mitt Romney’s 47 percent would look more like Clinton at 56 to Trump at 42 percent.
I’m being kind with that estimate.
Take the 2012 electoral map, retain every Democratic/Obama state and flip North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, and Montana. This brings it up to 32 states for 398 electoral votes. Shoot that number to 35 to 40 states with deciding on whether the former traditional route of Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia reject Trump for Clinton or whether a loosing of normally Republican-heavy plains states—North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas—go Democratic first time since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Crazy stuff. But, Trump is the kind of Republican who can cause this to happen. He’s a disaster waiting to happen and also deliver South Carolina and Texas as well to Hillary Clinton.
Historically it has been 69 percent of states carried by all presidential winners from 1789 to 2012. Average is 34 states. Since 1992, average has been 29 states carried. So, for 20 years, we have underperformed. At some point that will need to be corrected. And 2016 may be that year.
D, I find your projection interesting, and would love it to happen, but I am more pessimistic than you, although I am sure Hilary will win.
You and everyone else should look on HNN on Monday and see my projection, and then you can comment more here on it.