Julian Castro

Reality Of Democratic Presidential Contenders: They MUST Win Home Or Regional State Primary Or Caucus To Survive To Later Battles

With up to two dozen or more Democrats as Presidential contenders, history tells us that such candidates MUST win their home or regional state primary or caucus in 2020 to survive to later battles.

As a result, we will see winnowing down of candidates during the month of February and early March 2020, after some candidates drop out as a result of a poor performance (by comparison and journalistic judgment) at upcoming debates being held monthly starting in late June and the early primaries and caucuses.

So IF Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren fail to win New Hampshire and or Massachusetts. their candidacies will be effectively over.

So IF Amy Klobuchar, or Pete Buttigieg, or Tim Ryan fail to win Iowa or Minnesota or Michigan or Ohio or Missouri, their candidacies are dead in the water.

So if Julian Castro or Beto O’Rourke fail to win Texas, they will be knocked out of the race for the White House.

So if Kamala Harris or Cory Booker cannot win in South Carolina, with its heavily African American Democratic registration, their Presidential candidacies are doomed.

So if Kamala Harris, or Eric Swalwell, or Tulsi Gabbard, or Jay Inslee, or John Hickenlooper fail to win California or Nevada or Washington, their campaigns will effectively end.

All of the states mentioned above have their primaries or caucuses taking place between February 3 and March 10.

The state of New York will also have its primaries in either February or early March, still undetermined, and Cory Booker or Kirsten Gillibrand would be expected to win that state in order to survive for a longer period.

Notice that the one “national” candidate who does not need to win any specific state or group of states to be viable is former Vice President Joe Biden, who could lose some, win some, but would likely have greater staying power in the race than anyone else.

So by the “Ides Of March” (March 15 or two days later, March 17, when Florida, Arizona, Illinois, and Colorado have had their primaries), we are likely to know who the Democratic nominee is for President.

More Presidential Contenders In 2020 Than In 2016: All Time High

America is about to witness the largest number of Presidential contenders in its history, as up to 26 Democrats are getting ready to compete in the first two Town Hall debates—on June 26 and 27 in Miami and July 30 and 31 in Detroit.

This includes Senators, Governors, Congressmen and women, Mayors, and businessmen and women, including seven Senators, four Governors, six Congressmen and women, four Mayors, a former Vice President, three businessmen and women, and a former state representative. Some of these are former governors, members of the House of Representatives, and former Mayors.

The Republican Party had set the all time record of 17 contenders in 2016, and it led, sadly, to Donald Trump winning their nomination and the White House.

This number of 26 is pure insanity, and needs to be cut down dramatically, and assuredly, public opinion polls, financial support, and staff growth will quickly eliminate many once the first two debate dates are done, as comparisons on issues and personality, and the likelihood of mistakes and blunders will narrow the field.

Expect that at most ten contenders might survive to the point of the Iowa Caucuses, the New Hampshire Primary, the Nevada Caucuses, and the South Carolina Primary, all taking place in February 2020, before the massive Super Tuesday on March 3, when 12 states, including California, Texas, Massachusetts and Virginia have their primaries.

If one had to guess now who will be the final ten, they would be in the estimate of this blogger the following alphabetically: Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Julian Castro, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren.

If that is the final ten, it would include the former Vice President, six Senators, two Mayors, and one Congressman. It would also include four women, one Latino, one mixed race, one African American, four white Anglo men, three white Anglo women, and one gay male and one Jewish male.

The Potential Exists For A Latino Presidential Dynasty Long Term With The Castro Brothers, Julian And Joaquin

With the potential that former San Antonio Mayor and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro might end up as the Democratic Presidential nominee in the Presidential Election of 2020, we could witness a new long term Presidential dynasty.

Castro is a very impressive and intelligent Presidential candidate, and being from Texas, he and his identical twin brother, Congressman Joaquin Castro, could have a revolutionary effect on Texas and American politics.

His brother is expected to announce for the Texas Senate seat of Republican John Cornyn, with a good chance to win, and if both brothers are on the election ballot in 2020 in Texas, it could make Texas go Blue, and that would insure a Democratic victory.

And once Julian would be President, and him being only 46, months younger than Bill Clinton, making Castro the third youngest President, and second youngest elected President, with the potential to be President until he was 54, what would prevent a Senator Joaquin Castro, at age 54, after eight years in the Senate from the second largest state, from deciding to try to succeed his brother?

This could be the Latino version of the plan to have Robert F. Kennedy or Ted Kennedy becoming President to fulfill the family hope of a Kennedy dynasty.

And with Latinos being the largest minority in America, with two thirds of all Hispanics being Mexican, it is appropriate to say it is time for a Latino President, now that we have had an African American President, Barack Obama.

Quandary For Democrats: Progressive Or Moderate? Man Or Woman? White Or Nonwhite? Young Or Old? Senator/Governor Or A Nontraditional Candidate?

As we enter the month of April, and as more Democratic candidates for President are expected to announce, and as the first Democratic Presidential debate is set for Miami, Florida, on Wednesday and Thursday, June 26 and 27, the quandary for Democrats and the future remains.

Should the Democrats nominate a progressive, such as Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren? Should they nominate a man or one of the many women who are running? Should they nominate a white man such as Beto O’Rourke or Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders, or a non white such as Cory Booker? Should they nominate an old guy such as Biden or Sanders, or a young man such as O’Rourke, Julian Castro, or Pete Buttigieg? Should they nominate, as traditionally is done, a sitting or former Senator or Governor, or nontraditional candidate, such as a sitting or former member of the House of Representatives, or a sitting or former Mayor, or a person who hs served as a cabinet officer, or someone who is openly gay?

This is the amazing list of alternatives facing the Democrats, with the ultimate question being who can defeat Donald Trump, or if he leaves, Mike Pence in the 2020 Presidential election.

Victory is essential, and trying to figure out which strategy is best is a massive challenge to Democratic voters in the upcoming primaries and caucuses which start ten months from now.

If Texas Went “Blue” In 2020, The Midwest Would No Longer Be Essential For Democratic Hold On White House

The possibility now exists, after “Beto” O’Rourke ran the best Democratic race for statewide office in Texas by a Democrat in 30 years, when he came close to defeating Republican Senator Ted Cruz in November 2018, that the state might turn “Blue” in the near future.

If O’Rourke or former San Antonio Mayor and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro ends up running as the Presidential or even Vice Presidential nominee in 2020 for the Democrats, the party might win the 38 electoral votes of Texas, replacing the need for the Midwest states that Hillary Clinton lost to be won if the Democrats are to gain the White House.

And if Joaquin Castro, Julian’s identical twin brother, now a Congressman from San Antonio, runs against Texas Republican Senator John Cornyn, and is able to win the state, it will be ever more insurance on the short term and long term future of Texas in the Democratic camp.

The Decision Of Sherrod Brown Not To Run For President Opens Opportunity For Amy Klobuchar Of Minnesota To Be The “Midwest” Candidate

The decision of Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown to forego an opportunity to run for President as a Midwesterner in a time when the Midwest is clearly the battleground in the Electoral College in 2020 is a open opportunity for Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar to be the “Midwest” candidate.

Klobuchar is the only Midwesterner likely to run, although Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan, a fellow moderate, has hinted at running, but being a United States Senator is an edge over being a House member.

The main point against Klobuchar is the report that she is a nasty, unpleasant person to work for, but even if that is true, the record shows many others also have that reputation, including Presidents ranging from Lyndon B. Johnson, Richard Nixon, Bill Clinton, to Donald Trump in the last half century.

Also, it is said she is too ‘moderate” in that she does not believe that everything promoted and promised by Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and others is possible in the next term, and that she will not promise what she sees as campaign propaganda, leading to disillusionment when it is not possible to accomplish these massive pledges.

This seems perfectly reasonable to this author and blogger, and Klobuchar has a solid record of accomplishment, and of “crossing the aisle” to gain bipartisan support on legislation. She is in the DFL (Democratic Farmer Labor Party) tradition in Minnesota, the heir of Hubert Humphrey, Eugene McCarthy, Walter Mondale, Paul Wellstone, and even Al Franken (unfairly forced out of the Senate) by bullying over unproved charges of sexual harassment promoted aggressively by New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, for whom this author and blogger lost all respect.

Klobuchar will be 60 in 2020, close to the ideal average age of most Presidents taking office, and she would bring to the Presidency a sensible commitment to social justice, avoiding extreme statements that would only assist Donald Trump and Mike Pence in their reelection campaign.

She would also bring a reasonable woman into the Presidency, more cautious and sensible in her rhetoric than the alternative female candidates.

And if she chose Julian Castro of Texas, we would have a Democratic ticket of a woman and a Latino, overcoming two barriers at once, and leaving Castro, who would be age 46 in 2020, open to a future run for President after two terms of President Klobuchar, and be the precise average age of Presidents, mid 50s, in 2028.

The Castro Brothers, Julian And Joaquin, Big Time Political Stars

Two Texas brothers and identical twins, Julian and Joaquin Castro, have become big time political stars, with Julian running for President, and Joaquin leading the charge as his campaign manager, and the leader of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus in the 116th Congress.

Julian was Mayor of San Antonio, the seventh largest city in America, from 2009-2014, and was Secretary of Housing and Urban Development from 2014-2017 under President Barack Obama. If elected, he would be the first Hispanic/Latino President, and the first President since Herbert Hoover whose highest federal position was as a cabinet officer under a President. He was considered a finalist to run for Vice President with Hillary Clinton in 2016, and some observers think he would have helped Clinton to win the Electoral College, but that subject to debate. He gained notice in 2012 nationally when he gave the keynote address at the Democratic National Convention.

If Julian Castro was elected, he would be the third youngest President, behind Theodore Roosevelt and John F. Kennedy. He supports comprehensive immigration reform; free trade; first two years of public higher education tuition free; universal health care and Medicare For All; the Paris Climate Accord; refusal to take PAC money as part of his campaign; Affirmative Action; and assault weapons ban; gay rights; and abortion rights. So that makes him a progressive on the left of the Democratic Party, but not seen as far left as Bernie Sanders.

Brother Joaquin Castro has been a Congressman from the San Antonio area since 2013, so is in his fourth term in the House of Representatives. Earlier, he was a member of the Texas State House of Representatives from 2003-2013. This year, Joaquin has been the leader in organizing to oppose Donald Trump’s Border Wall Emergency Declaration, and has been standing out as one of the leading members of the Democratic caucus.

To differentiate himself from his brother, Joaquin has grown a beard, as otherwise, it is impossible to tell which brother is Joaquin or Julian. Some humorists have said Joaquin could replace Julian in a public sphere, and most people would not know the difference.

It is rumored that Joaquin, while running his brother’s campaign for President, might also seek the Senate seat of Republican John Cornyn in 2020.

It is clear that the Castro brothers will be national figures for the long term future, no matter what happens.

This author and blogger, at this point, is quite enthused by Julian Castro, who is seen as on his short list of favorites for the Democratic Presidential nomination.

It would be fitting if we had a Latino President after Donald Trump has bashed Latinos and people from Mexico as part of his nativism as a candidate and as a President.

It is felt that if Castro was the Democratic nominee in 2020, the state of Texas, with 38 electoral votes would be in play, and if won, the Midwest battleground everyone talks about would not be as crucial in winning the Electoral College.

Joe Biden Moves To The Forefront As Michael Bloomberg And Sherrod Brown Decide Not To Run For President

With moderates Michael Bloomberg and Sherrod Brown deciding not to run for President in 2020, Joe Biden moves to the forefront as the best moderate centrist Democratic Presidential candidate, at least on paper in and polls.

We also have Senator Amy Klobuchar, former San Antonio Mayor and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro, former El Paso Congressman Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke, plus possibly John Hickenlooper, former Colorado Governor, who has just announced for President as possible moderates who might compete.

With Klobuchar apparently the only candidate from the Midwest “battleground” states that Hillary Clinton lost, and Castro and O’Rourke from Texas, which could conceivably go “Blue” and make it unnecessary for a Democrat to win the Midwest, and Hickenlooper from a critical Rocky Mountain West state, any of them could be the person to replace Joe Biden, if he falters, and any of them could also be the Vice Presidential running mage with Joe Biden.

At this point, these five listed above are probably those with an edge to win the nation, rather than further left nominees, but it is clear that the race is wide open, and all candidates will have to be vetted, and many will fall short, and none will be perfect in their backgrounds and records in office.

Early Caucuses And Primaries Favor Different Democratic Presidential Nominees

A year from now, the early Presidential caucuses and primaries create a situation where different candidates may have an edge, and are likely to create more complications in deciding who will gain and who will lose favor.

The Iowa Caucuses might favor Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar or Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown.

The New Hampshire Primary might favor Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders or Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren.

The Nevada Caucuses might favor California Senator Kamala Harris or Colorado Senator Michael Bennet.

The South Carolina Primary might favor either New Jersey Senator Cory Booker or California Senator Kamala Harris, with its heavily African American Democratic membership in that Southern state.

On Super Tuesday, March 3, Harris might be favored in her home state of California; and former San Antonio Mayor and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro or former El Paso Congressman Beto O’Rourke might have the edge in Texas.

As the month of March wears on, with a number of Midwestern primaries in Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Illinois, Klobuchar and Brown would seem to have the edge, assuming no one has become the obvious Presidential choice after Super Tuesday, as at least seven other primaries are conducted that day.

Of course, based on past elections, it could be that the nominee would be decided simply by the large number of states conducting their primaries on March 3 (at least 9 states, including the giant ones of California and Texas).

One Year To The Iowa Caucuses, And The Democratic Presidential Race Is Wide Open And Even Chaotic

One year from February 3, a Monday in 2020, we will witness the 2020 Democratic Presidential Caucuses, the first test on the road to the Presidential nomination, as it turned out to be exactly 11 years ago on January 3, 2008, when Barack Obama won out over Hillary Clinton.

One year out, it is impossible to figure out who will be the Democratic Presidential nominee, but with the urgency that it is essential that whoever is selected is able to win the Presidency, and save the nation from a second term of Donald Trump or a succession of Mike Pence.

Within just one month, February 3 to March 3, assuredly, the field, which may start as high as 25 candidates, will be winnowed to no more than 5, and March 3, Super Tuesday, with California and Texas and a vast number of other states voting, could cut it down to no more than 3 finalists.

A prognostication, which may prove to be totally preposterous in retrospect in a year, this blogger senses that the following five will be the ultimate finalists:

Vice President Joe Biden, representing the older, establishment, experienced group of candidates and the Barack Obama legacy.

Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, representing the Midwest heartland, and like Biden, appeal to white working class voters.

Former San Antonio Mayor and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro, a Latino, and younger by months if he became President than Bill Clinton, from Texas, representing the largest minority in America in a state and section of the nation with growing potential to turn Blue in the next decade, and transform the Electoral College in favor of the Democrats long term.

Senator Kamala Harris of California, mixed race (mother from India and father from Jamaica), often called “the female Barack Obama”, representing a candidate who revolutionizes the whole election process with her presence, and if she wins California, it could propel her into front runner status.

I would sense that the Presidential-Vice Presidential team will come from this group of five, but we shall see as the next year transpires.